The collapse and reconstitution of the Soviet Union did not lead to its disarmament. Russia still possesses a powerful nuclear arsenal-thousands of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), sea-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs), armed and targeted at the United States. Moreover, Russia continues to modernize and expand this arsenal despite its economic problems and perceived military weakness. In recent years, reports have indicated that security at Russia's nuclear/missile facilities is breaking down, thus elevating the chances that a warhead or missile will fall into the hands of terrorists or rogue military elements.. Finally, Russia is among the world's most rampant proliferators of missile technology. For these reasons, Russia's nuclear and ballistic missile arsenal remains the single greatest strategic threat to the United States.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
Russia maintains the Soviet Union's emphasis on modern ballistic missile technology. It is currently deploying its most advanced ICBM, the SS-27 or Topol-M. This silo-based missile has a range of 10,500 km and is reported to be equipped with a 550 kT yield nuclear warhead. Thirty-six Topol-M missiles, each armed with a single nuclear warhead, are already operational in the Saratov region in southwestern Russia, and reports indicate that Russia plans to deploy additional missiles in the Ivanovo region.[1] The Topol-M has been tested on a number of occasions, and a sea-based version, the Bulava, is currently being added to Russian submarines. A mobile land based version--harder to track and detect by satellites, and thus harder to anticipate launches--is also undergoing advanced testing and is scheduled to be deployed in 2006.[2]
The most significant characteristic of the Topol-M, which is destined to become the mainstay of the Russian missile arsenal by 2015, is its stated capability to overcome the ballistic missile defenses that the United States is currently deploying, or could deploy in the near future.[3] Russian President Vladimir Putin has commented that his nation possesses warheads capable of making evasive maneuvers at hypersonic speeds, thus enabling them to evade any terminal phase interceptors.[4] In addition, the Topol-M also carries countermeasures and decoy balloons, and is believed to employ carbon shielding to defend against possible U.S. space-based lasers. The missile is also shielded against radiation, electromagnetic interference, and physical disturbance; previous Russian missiles could be disabled by detonating a nuclear warhead within ten kilometers.[5]
In addition to the Topol-M, Russian retains a large number of other potent ICBMs in its strategic arsenal. In May 2004, Russian Strategic Missile Troops commander Col.-Gen. Nikolay Solovtsov announced that the service life of its current ICBMs would be extended for additional 10-15 years (20-25 years, including the previous service life) until Topol-M missiles can replace them. Solovtsov was referring primarily to the SS-18 Satan and SS-19 Stiletto missiles, with respective ranges of 15,000 km and 10,000 km. According to Russian sources, Russia now possesses over 700 ICBMs armed with around 3,100 nuclear warheads. Although at approximate parity with the U.S. in strategic nuclear arms, the number of which will be reduced to 2,200 or less by 2012, Russia retains a substantial lead in non-strategic nuclear weapons, some 8,000 to 15,000, as compared to 300.[6]
To preserve its nuclear readiness, Russia maintains a robust testing regimen for its missile forces. In 2004 alone, Russia conducted 15 test launches of ICBMs and SLBMs, including tests of the Topol-M as well as the silo-launched SS-18 and SS-19, the road/rail-mobile SS-25 Sickle, and the sea-launched SS-N-18 Stingray and SS-N-23 Skiff.[7] Russia plans to continue its ICBM test schedule through 2005 and with an additional 20 launches, 10 each year. In August 2005, for instance, a SS-N-23 was test launched from a submarine in the northern Barents Sea, with President Putin in attendance.[8]
Breakdown of Russian Arsenal and Proliferation
In addition to the threat of a conventional Russian nuclear attack, the United States is also threatened by negligent security at Russia's nuclear/missile facilities, as well as rampant proliferation of ballistic missile technology and expertise to rogue nations and terrorist-sponsoring states.
The security of the Russian nuclear arsenal constitutes a serious threat to the United States. Should a missile or warhead get into the hands of rogue elements of the Russian military, a launch is possible. Former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara has warned as recently as April 2004 that a nuclear attack from Russia is a very real scenario today, whether by accident or intention. Even a benign Russia that miscalculates can destroy America in less than half an hour.[9] Moreover, there remains the possibility that a loose Russian WMD might fall into the hands of Islamist terrorists, such as those operating in Chechnya and the former Soviet republics in Central Asia. In May 2004, Nikolay Patrushev, head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), stated his concern that these terrorist organizations could gain possession of loose Russian nuclear weapons, as well as other WMDs.[10]
Besides the direct threat of Russian ballistic technology falling into the hands of terrorists, the more indirect threat of Russia's proliferation of nuclear and missile technology to rogue states remains a cause of significant concern. Along with China, Russia is the greatest source of ballistic missile proliferation, evidence of which is well-documented yet underappreciated. Reports that Russia is helping Iran develop a nuclear bomb, or that Russian scientists assisted North Korea in developing mobile intermediate range missile should come as no surprise, but rather as a continuation of the use of proxies which so characterized the Soviet era.
Most worrisome is Russia's strategic relationship with Iran, which appears to have grown in recent years. Through this relationship, Russia is able to project its power into the Middle East, which it fears that the U.S. will dominate through its efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Most notably, the Iranian Shahab-3 and Shahab-4 medium-range ballistic missiles were built with Russian technology and expertise.[11] In March 2004, Stephen Rademaker, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, stated that Russia continues to contribute to the proliferation of medium- and short-range ballistic missile systems and technology to Iran.[12] That September, the U.S. sanctioned three Russian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian companies for exporting technology and materials to Iran.[13]
Beyond Iran, Russia has also been involved with two other Middle Eastern nations: Iraq and Syria. In March 2004, The New York Times described in detail how Russian ballistic missile technology aided Saddam Hussein's Iraqi missile programs until not too long before the 2003 Iraq War. In direct violation of United Nations sanctions, Russian engineers reportedly worked on the Iraqi program both in Moscow and in Baghdad.[14] In January 2005, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that Russia allegedly intended to sell a number of missile systems to Syria, including the export version of the SS-26 Iskander missile, which has a reported range of 280 km and would be able to strike nearly all of Israel, as well as U.S. military regional assets.[15]
Russia has also been involved in North Korea's missile development program. In August 2004, Jane's Defense Weekly reported that North Korea was deploying two forms of a new missile system, capable of striking U.S military forces in Guam and Japan and also the continental United States. The new missile is believed to be based primarily upon the Russian SS-N-6 submarine launched ballistic missile, as well as some SS-N-5 technology and assistance from the Russian missile manufacturer VP Makeyev Design Bureau. The land-based mobile version of the missile has an estimated range of missile 2,500-4,000 km, and the submarine- or ship-based version some 2,500 km or more.[16]
[1] Argumenty i Fakty, 6 July 2005; RIA Novosti, 16 May 2005.
[2] Duncan Lennox, Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems 42 (Surrey: Jane's Information Group, January 2005), 162.
[3] "Topol-M to Form Core of Russian Missile Arsenal after 2015," Itar-Tass, 15 May 2004.
[4] "Putin Says Russia Developing New Form of Nuclear Missile," The Associated Press, 17 November 2004.
[5] Lennox, 162.
[6] Itar-Tass, 6 May 2004.
[7] Sergei Blagov, "Russia to Test Nuclear Forces, Fire Missiles in War Games," CNSNews.com, 4 February 2004; Interfax-AVN, 11 August 2004, 21 December 2004; Itar-Tass, 29 June 2004, 8 September 2004, 2 November 2004, 22 December 2004; Izvestia, 28 April 2004; The New York Times, 18 March 2004.
[8] Interfax-AVN, 10 December 2004; "Russian Sub Launches Ballistic Missile," Interfax, 17 August 2005; RIA Novosti, 10 August 2005.
[9] Robert McNamara and Helen Caldicott, "Still on Catastrophe's Edge," The Los Angeles Times, 27 April 2004.
[10] Interfax-AVN, 20 May 2004.
[11] Bill Gertz, "Missiles In Iran of Concern To State," The Washington Times, 11 September 1997.
[12] Russkii Kurier, 4 March 2004.
[13] The Washington Times, 27 September 2004.
[14] James Risen, "Russian Engineers Reportedly Gave Missile Aid to Iraq," The New York Times, 5 March 2004.
[15] Kommersant, 12 January 2005
[16] Jane's Defense Weekly 3 August 2004.
