July 4, 2008
The Threat
America’s vulnerability to ballistic missile attack increases with the proliferation of ballistic missile technology throughout the globe. “The Threat” outlines the danger posed by particular countries.
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Missiles of the World
A detailed database of offensive ballistic missiles throughout the world.
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Cruise Missiles
A comprehensive database of the cruise missiles around the world.
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Scenarios
Ballistic missile attacks can come in many forms. One might prefer to think of war in the modern age as “unthinkable,” but it would be irresponsible to dismiss the harm enemies may wish us. With both textual descriptions and animations, “scenarios” shows what both attacks and interceptions would look like.
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Quote
"I often remind people that a ballistic missile attack using a weapon of mass destruction from a rogue state is every bit as much a threat to our borders now as a Warsaw Pact tank was two decades ago."
--- Madeleine K. Albright, Secretary of State, December 8, 1998
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News and Analysis
Sea-Based Aegis Intercept Attempt Successful against Ship-Launched Missile
The Aegis missile defense system today demonstrated a significant capability against the threat of ship-launched ballistic missiles with the successful intercept of a target missile fired not from land but from another ship. The test, designated FTM-14, was the fourteenth successful intercept by the Aegis system in sixteen attempts, and the second successful attempt in the terminal phase, that is, in the last few seconds of the missile's descent, by the SM-2 Block IV interceptor. At 8:13 am local time, the short range target missile was fired from "a mobile launch platform" 300 miles west of the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Barking Sands, on the island of Kauai, Hawaii. The Aegis system aboard the USS Lake Erie detected the missile and fired two interceptors. Two minutes later, the interceptors destroyed the missile some 12 miles above the Pacific Ocean and 100 miles west-northward of Kauai.
The sea-based Aegis system is one of the most robust and successful missile defense systems under development. Its mobile capability makes the sea-based system a major component of an overall layered defense against missile threats. Today's test is doubly significant for the threat posed by ballistic missiles launched against U.S. cities from ships lying off an American coast. Rogue states do not need long- or even medium-range missile capability to pose such a threat. Among others, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has noted that rogue states have in fact tested ballistic missiles from sea-based platforms such as freighters. The ship-launched threat, the so-called "Scud in a bucket" scenario, illustrates a much more immediate threat to the United States and its allies than an ICBM fired against the United States by Iran and North Korea. The range of both Shahab and Taepo-Dong missiles is more than adequate to use against the United States or other countries in such a configuration.
» More stories on: Ship-Launched Threat, Testing - American, Sea-Based Systems
» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD
Successful Patriot Test
The latest live-fire test of the Patriot (PAC-3) interceptor was successful, taking place at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico, according to a press release by Raytheon. The test did not include an intercept attempt of another missile, but was rather designed to test new software and other equipment. The exercise was the second in a series of tests to evaluate the new interceptor.» More stories on: Testing - American
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
North Korea Fires Three Anti-Ship Missiles
North Korea again fired a salvo of short range missiles off its coast, with three rockets launched, according to the Yonhap news agency in South Korea. Little information was given about the type of the missile, but Itar Tass described them as ship-launched anti-ship missiles with a range of 45 km. Yonhap claimed that they were of a type made in the former Soviet Union. The South Korean Defense Ministry was also cited as saying that two of the three missiles missed their intended targets. North Korea last launched several missiles from its western coast in March.» More stories on: North Korea, Testing - Foreign
First THAAD Unit Activated by U.S. Army
The United States Army today announced the first-ever activation of a fully operational missile defense unit for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptor system, or THAAD. The activation took place at a ceremony at Fort Bliss, Texas. The Missile Defense Agency transferred control of the interceptors to the army, and the unit, currently based in Fort Bliss will go into actual service. According to reports, Alpha Battery/4th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, 32nd Army Air and Missile Defense Command will receive 24 THAAD interceptors, three THAAD launchers, a THAAD Fire Control and a THAAD radar as part of the initial fielding.
The THAAD interceptor system has recently enjoyed an exceptional test record, with eight successful launches four out of four successful intercept attempts. The permanent location for the first THAAD unit has yet to be determined, but several alternatives present themselves, including Guam or Israel to defend against North Korean or Iranian missiles, respectively. The unit may also remain at Fort Bliss, as a mobile unit capable of being deployed anywhere in the event of a crisis.
» More stories on: Deployment
» Missile system details for: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
Senate Funding for Missile Defense in Europe
The Senate Armed Services Committee has approved increased funding for a U.S. missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. The newly allotted funds will increase the project budget from $320 million to $712 million, and legislators have also earmarked money for two constructing the two sites. The Bush Administration had urged this authorization, which is part of the 2009 defense policy bill.» More stories on: Policy
Pakistan Tests Hatf VIII
On Thursday, Pakistan successfully tested-fired its Ra'ad (Hatf VIII), an aircraft launched, 220-mile-range cruise missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The test comes one day after India test-fired a long-range missile also with nuclear capability. Although Pakistani officials have declined to disclose the launch site, they reported that the missile "has special stealth capabilities," and is a "low altitude, terrain-following missile with high maneuverability." It can "deliver all types of warheads with great accuracy."» More stories on: India, Pakistan
North Korea Linked to Destroyed Syrian Nuclear Reactor
Today the White House will announce that the North Koreans had been working at a Syrian nuclear reactor until it was destroyed last September in an Israeli airstrike, reports the New York Times. This discovery, based on video evidence, comes after a seven-month clandestine investigation. U.S. and Israeli senior officials believe that the strike targeted a fledgling nuclear reactor modeled after the North Korean reactor used for attaining fuel for its weapons system.
The site was destroyed by Israeli jets on September 6. After protesting, the Syrians bulldozed the site and erected a building on the area formerly holding the reactor. They have routinely denied access to international nuclear weapons inspectors.
The State Department finds the White House’s timing in declassifying this information suspicious. Some have suggested that the administration’s declassification is aimed at undermining a deal with the North Koreans that would allow it to be removed from the list of nations sponsoring terrorism.
One senior White House official has said, off the record that, “Making public the pictures is likely to inflame the North Koreans. And that’s just what opponents of this whole arrangement want, because they think the North Koreans will stalk off.” Another official claims that perhaps this new information will force North Korea to more fully divulge its projects in Syria with the disclosure of details pertaining to its nuclear activities.
The deal in question is being brokered by the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Christopher R. Hill, who is acting as the primary liaison with North Korea, and has suddenly become the latest point of contention in a seven-year battle within the Bush Administration over foreign policy as it relates to North Korea. That policy has evolved from attempting to pressure North Korea in hopes of collapsing Kim Jong-il’s government, to negotiating with North Korea along with Russia, China, South Korea and Japan—each of whom has pursued a unique strategy in solving the problem of North Korea.
Christopher Hill was charged with the task of determining a new strategy for dealing with the North Koreans more than three years ago. With dwindling support, Hill has struggled, and senior officials have reported that President Bush has overtly admonished his aides against pursuing any policy that “makes [him] look weak.” Vice President Cheney’s office has argued that Hill’s proposal would be too big a concession—in exchange for a perfunctory declaration form the North Koreans regarding its plutonium production, it would be removed from the list of nations sponsoring terrorism and therefore no longer subject to economic sanctions under the Trading With the Enemy Act. Still, the North Koreans have failed to volunteer information pertaining to its involvement with Syria and its plans to begin building arms using uranium. Hill’s deal would allow the North Koreans to continue on in relative secrecy. It would allow them to leave unexplained its purchase of uranium enrichment materials from Pakistan—materials and equipment that experts believe was obtained to help North Korea engineer another road to a nuclear bomb if it were forced to abandon its plutonium program.
Today American intelligence officials will, in a presentation to members of Congress, show videos of Koreans working among employees at a Syrian plant. Mr. Hill has already shown this footage to senior South Korean officials. Other pictures illustrate what seems to be the construction of a reactor vessel inside the very building later destroyed in the Israeli strike of September.
Officials have heretofore refused to speak about the September attack. Christopher Hill has found little support among his colleagues, including his boss, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who has sharply criticized the 1994 agreement between North Korea and the Clinton Administration for its “front loaded” rewards system for the North. Critics are saying something very similar of Mr. Hill’s proposed deal.
» More stories on: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Israel, Syria
General Obering Says U.S. Should Welcome Missile Defense Race
Air Force Lt. Gen. General Obering said on Wednesday that the U.S. should be comfortable in welcoming a global missile defense race. Obering, head of the Missile Defense Agency, has told Senate appropriators that in the absence of such defenses, a race for offensive missiles has already exploding all over the world due to easy access to certain kinds of offensive systems.
According to Obering, the kind of layered defense the U.S. is pursuing through the Bush Administration and allies would likely deter enemies and potential enemies from building arsenals of offensive missiles.
In a hearing on the MDA’s 2009 budget request, Obering confidently told appropriators that if Washington, its NATO allies and countries like Russia could come together to develop and field missile shields around the world, hostile regimes in Tehran and Pyongyang will certainly “think twice about [fielding] offensive missiles,” as history has shown that these sorts of defensive systems are “hard to defeat.”
Obering’s report comes as Pentagon and administration officials are in talks with European allies and Warsaw attempting to come to agreement over a proposal to install roughly one dozen missile interceptors in Poland. Additionally, the U.S. has already reached a preliminary agreement with the Czech Republic to put an advanced radar suite there.
Negotiations with Polish officials halted earlier in the year when a new government took over in Warsaw and made clear that its desire for greater American military and security support before agreeing to host interceptors. More recently, U.S. officials have been optimistic about the prospects of linking a deal with Poland.
Obering told the Senate appropriators that he is hopeful that an accord can be reached “by the end of the year,” which would allow the MDA to begin the competition for the European shield work. The agency hopes to select a contractor soon enough to start work in Europe by the end of next year.
Meanwhile, Obering has reported that the Airborne Laser (ABL) effort, geared towards installing a laser weapon on board a Boeing 747 jet, is scheduled for a missile shoot-down test in mid-2009. Following this test, Obering said, agency officials will apply lessons provided by the test, during a “transition period” during which the agency will “try to figure out how to make the third and fourth planes as affordable as possible.”
With the ABL program progressing, Army Lt. Gen Kevin Campbell, chief of the Army Space and Missile Defense and Army Strategic Forces commands argues that the ground force is in talks with Air Force officials about the latter’s Advanced Hypersonic Weapon (AHW) program. These two bodies are working to integrate certain AHW technologies with the Air Force’s Prompt Global Strike program aimed at fielding a next-generation weapon capable of striking fleeting targets around the glove faster than today’s munitions. Additionally, MDA is working on doubling the size of its forthcoming SM-3 missile fleet over the next five years.
The Pentagon’s recently completed Joint Capability Mix II Study was meant to study the cocktail of missile defense weapons and sensors to handle threats that may occur in the 2015 time frame. The examination concluded that more SM-3 missiles would be needed. General Campbell has said that MDA plans to scatter the doubled SM-3 fleet across the “out years” of the future years defense strategy.
» More stories on: NATO, Testing - American
» Missile system details for: Airborne Laser (ABL)
Allard Calls for Missile Interceptors In Space
Speaking at this week's 24th Annual National Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, Senator Wayne Allard of Colorado argued that the next logical phase of U.S. missile defense ought to be interceptors in earth orbit.
A layer of space-based interceptors would enable a global on-call missile defense capability that could produce a timely response to rapidly evolving situations and would enable the U.S. to be prepared for all types of threats that could develop out of unpredictable locations.
In his remarks, Allard explained that this kind of layered missile defense is more appropriate in the post-Cold War era during which small terrorist groups and rogue nations are able to launch missiles around the world. The implementation of such a program, Allard said, would provide an extra layer of defense rather than replace existing segments. "This makes more sense than going back into the 'assured mutual destruction' mentality of times gone by."
The current White House budget for a space test bed for missile defense for the Missile Defense Agency is set at $10 million. Allard warned that the incoming administration will need to campaign aggressively in order to keep the possibility of a space test bed alive.
The next administration will have to choose which direction to take and which way it wants to go: continue the trend demonstrated by the 110th Congress of prioritizing near-term projects at the expense of future projects, or invest in a comprehensive long-term goal such as space-based interceptors that would be able to reach targets more rapidly and are capable of destroying enemy missiles in the boost phase.
» More stories on: Space-Based Systems
Bush: Russia Can Defeat European Missile Defenses
Following a meeting with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, President Bush noted that the missile defense systems proposed for Europe would in no way threaten the free ride Russian missiles have to the American homeland. "Russia could easily overwhelm the missile defense systems that we have envisioned," said Bush. Speaking to reporters, Bush continued:
It's in [Putin's] interests that we participate and share information. After all, a missile from the Middle East can fly north just as easily as it could fly west, and the capacity to be able to share information and share technology to be able to deal with these threats is important for a lot of countries, including Russia.
While optimistic, much work remains, according to Bush.
Obviously we've got work to do to convince [Putin] and the people around him that the missile defense system is not aimed at Russia, or is viewed as a anti-Russian device. Well, it's not, and, therefore, it requires a lot of time, a lot of discussion. That's what Condi Rice and Bob Gates spent time doing when they were in Russia, and that is to defuse any notions that this is aiming something at somebody in Europe. This is all aiming to protect people in Europe.
President Bush noted the difficulties of U.S.-Russian relations: "we're dealing with a lot history and a lot of suspicion...the President and I will try to work through these for our common good. And I'm hopeful we can have some breakthroughs."
Bush is scheduled to meet with Putin in Sochi this week. This will be the last face-to-face meeting between the two before Putin departs his office.
» More stories on: Policy, European Missile Defenses
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Overview
An explanation of what ballistic missiles are, how to defend against them, and the fundamental issues which drive the debate over whether or not to defend America.
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IWG Report 2007
Independent Working Group Report: Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century. »»
Missile Defense Systems
Ballistic missiles may be destroyed during their flight using systems based on land, sea, air, or space. Each system has particular virtues and vices: a robust and layered defense is necessary to provide for the strategic defense of the United States. This section contains information on past and present missile defenses of the United States, Russia, and other countries, including the land-based systems being deployed at Fort Greely, Alaska.
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Reports and Analyses
Numerous government and academic assessments have been conducted on missile defense, the threat posed by proliferating ballistic missiles, and related subjects. This section contains the best reports and analyses from both advocates and opponents of missile defense.
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Treaties, Laws, and Resolutions
This section contains resources for legal aspects of ballistic missile defense. Until President Bush withdrew the United States on June 2002, the ABM Treaty was the primary obstacle to deploying missile defenses for some thirty years. Information on the treaty’s significance, history, and demise is contained here, along with all other treaties related to missile defense, laws passed by the United States Congress, and resolutions by state legislatures.
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