| Country: |
People's Republic of China |
| Alternate Name: |
DF-41 |
| Class: |
ICBM |
| Basing: |
Silo based, road/rail mobile |
| Length: |
21.00 m |
| Diameter: |
2.25 m |
| Launch Weight: |
80000 kg |
| Payload: |
Single warhead or 6 to 10 MIRV, 2500kg |
| Warhead: |
Nuclear single 1 MT or MIRV with selectable 20, 90, 150 kT |
| Propulsion: |
3-stage solid |
| Range: |
12000-14000 km |
| Status: |
Unknown |
Details
The CSS-X-10 (DF-41) is an intercontinental range, road/rail mobile, solid propellant ballistic missile. As the missile has not left the development stage, much of the information available is estimation or conjecture. The CSS-X-10 is the next land-based ballistic missile to be deployed in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and represents the peak of PRC missile technology. It has been reported that the missile consists of the first two stages of the CSS-9 with a lengthened third stage, but it is likely that report referred to the updated version of the CSS-9 rather than the CSS-X-10. The CSS-X-10 appears similar to the Russian SS-27 and it is possible SS-27 technology was purchased or stolen. The CSS-X-10 is easily capable of striking the United States and will likely become the core of the PRC’s nuclear strike force.(1)
There is insufficient information about the CSS-X-10 to determine its effective use. Given the accuracy on the CSS-9, it will likely be capable of destroying Russian and Indian hardened missile silos, as those are engaged well within its maximum range. It is unlikely that the current guidance system can be used to destroy US silos. However, it is believed that the PRC has been attempting to acquire modern Russian guidance systems, and it is likely that they will eventually develop the guidance systems to allow Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) to destroy US missile silos. This would make it an extremely effective first-strike weapon. At the moment, however, it will likely be used to depopulate civilian centers as a strategic threat and to apply political pressure. It will most likely be primarily deployed against the United States, as India and Russia can be attacked with shorter-range systems that the PRC has in large numbers.
The development of the CSS-X-10 system significantly increases the strategic force of the PRC. The range and capabilities of the CSS-X-10 make it the most advanced missile in the PRC arsenal and a significant threat to the United States. The PRC has shown it is willing to use nuclear weapons to achieve political gain. During a 1996 confrontation regarding PRC missile tests off the coast of Taiwan, a senior Communist Chinese official (and frequent policy spokesman), told a US official not to interfere with relations between the PRC and Taiwan because Americans “care more about Los Angeles than they do Tai Pei.” The ability of the CSS-X-10 to strike the continental United States restricts US foreign policy and undermines US influence in Asia. The concealment and mobility of the system makes it impossible to completely destroy during a pre-emptive strike, leaving the United States completely vulnerable to the system until the development of an effective ballistic missile system. The placement of decoys on the missile will significantly decrease the effectiveness of the system currently planned for 2005 deployment by the Bush administration.
The CSS-X-10 is believed to be approximately 21.0 m in length, 2.25 m in diameter, and have a launch weight of 80,000 kg. Its payload probably carries either a single warhead or between 6 and 10 MIRV with a total weight of 2,500 kg. Its warheads can be single 1 MT nuclear warhead or a selectable yield of 20, 90 or 150 kT on each MIRV. It has an estimated range of between 12,000 and 14,000 km (7,456 and 8,699 miles). It uses inertial guidance, likely with stellar updates and a Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) system, which provides it with an accuracy of 100-500 m CEP. The CSS-X-10 uses a three-stage solid propellant engine.
The CSS-X-10 program is believed to have entered development in 1986. One report suggested that the project was terminated in 2002, though subsequent reports may suggest that the program has been reinitiated. The Department of Defense’s 2009 report on the PRC did not mention the existence or development of the CSS-X-10 or the DF-41; therefore, it is quite possible that the project has been completely terminated.(2) If completed, the project is expected to produce 10 to 20 initial missiles with the possibility of greater numbers in the future. About half of those produced would likely be kept mobile via rail or road-based launchers while the other half would likely be deployed in silos. Nominally, the CSS-X-10 is set to replace the CSS-4, but both will probably be kept operational to maximize the nuclear force of the PRC. As there are a limited number of missiles in the PRC that can strike the United States, it is unlikely that the CSS-4 will be replaced in the near future. Only after the CSS-X-10 has achieved sufficient numbers will new missiles begin to replace the CSS-4 systems currently in service.(1)
Footnotes
1.
Jane’s Strategic Weapons Systems, Issue 50, (Surrey: Jane’s Information Group, January 2007), 29-30.
2. “Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009,” Office of the Secretary of Defense, available at
http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf, accessed on 26 July 2010.
