| Country: |
People's Republic of China |
| Alternate Name: |
DF-31/DF-31A |
| Class: |
ICBM |
| Basing: |
TEL or Silo |
| Length: |
13.00 m |
| Diameter: |
2.25 m |
| Launch Weight: |
42,000 kg |
| Payload: |
Single warhead or 3 to 5 MIRV, 1050 to 1750 kg |
| Warhead: |
Nuclear single 1 MT or MIRV selectable 20, 90, 150 kT each |
| Propulsion: |
3-stage solid |
| Range: |
8,000 (DF-31); 10,000-14,000 (DF-31A) km |
| Status: |
Operational |
| In Service: |
2006 (DF-31); 2007 (DF-31A) |
Details
The CSS-9, or DF-31, is an inter-continental range, road/rail-mobile, three-stage solid propellant ballistic missile. Development on the missile began in 1970 alongside the missile’s submarine based counterpart, the JL-2. Initially the missile was given the Chinese designator DF-23, but following changes in the program’s requirements, the missile was re-designated DF-31 in the late 1990s. The missile is probably intended to replace the older CSS-3/DF-4, as its solid-propellant base gives it considerable transportation and launch-time advantages over the older missile.(1)
There has been much dispute over the missile’s capability among US intelligence sources. Much is still unknown, but since the missile became operation in 2006, along with the upgraded version designated DF-31A becoming operational in 2007, some of the speculation seems to have been sorted out.
The original version of the CSS-9, the DF-31 version, is believed to have a length of 13.0 m, a diameter of 2.25 m, and a launch weight of 42,000 kg. Conflicting reports have placed the maximum range of this missile between 7,200 km and 8,000 km.(2) Minimum range is believed to be 1,500 km. The RV/warhead assembly is expected to have a payload of 1,050 to 1,750 kg with a single nuclear warhead yielding 1 to 3 MT. Possible alternative payloads include three to four MIRV units with varying possible yields of 20, 90, or 150 kT and penetration aids. The possibility of these MIRV units is based upon eleven different tests on 20 kT to 150 kT warheads performed by China between 1983 and 1996.(3) Other sources suggest that, while the missile will likely employ penetration aids and defense deterrence measures, it will not carry MIRVs.(4) The missile probably employs a variety of navigation aids, including stellar and GPS systems. While accuracy is expected to be around 300 m CEP, several reports have suggested that a Silo-launched missile would have an accuracy of 100 m CEP and a TEL-launched missile would have an accuracy of 150 m CEP.(5)
Production on the upgraded version of the CSS-9, the DF-31A, presumably began in the latter stages of the original missile’s development. This version uses a significantly longer third-stage motor to bring the missile to a total length of 18.4m and a maximum range beyond 10,000 km. Some reports place the range of the DF-31A version between 10,000 and 14,000 km – probably based on payload – while other reports, including official Department of Defense reports, suggest that the range is above 11,200 km.(6) The additional range is very significant, because it brings the entire Continental-US within missile range. Compared to its predecessor, this missile has the same diameter in its first and second motor stages, while the lengthened third stage is narrower at 1.5 m in diameter. The overall launch weight is believed to be 47,200 kg. The missile may carry the same or similar warheads to its predecessor, and three to four MIRV units are thought likely.
The missile program, which includes both DF-31 and DF-31A versions, is thought to have performed 11 different flights tests on the missile: May 1995, November 1995, January 1996, December 1996, August 1999, November 2000, December 2000, August 2002, November 2002, March 2004, and September 2006.(7) One source suggests that the August 1999 test was the first comprehensive test of the missile containing a dummy warhead. This same source notes that this August 1999 test was not successful, neither were the two subsequent tests in 2000.(8) In any event, the September 2006 flight tested the missile over a distance of 2,500 km and appears to have been successful. According to US Department of Defense reports, the DF-31 version became operational in 2006 and the DF-31A version became operational in 2007.(9) The 2010 version of the Department of Defense report suggests that, as of August 2010, around 30 DF-31 and DF-31A missiles were operational, representing an increase of 5-10 DF-31A missiles since the 2009 report.(10) Operational missiles are believed to be deployed to units within the Second Artillery Corps of the PLA. Perhaps as many as 50 missiles will be assembled and deployed by 2015.(11)
Both versions of the missile are cold-fired from mobile TEL units or fixed Silos. The JL-2 version is fired from a submarine. Though rail-based and off-road TEL units may be under construction, official reports have yet to confirm their existence.(12) A military parade in October 1999 supposedly displayed a DF-31 on a road-based tractor-trailer-type TEL, though only the containment canister was visible (and the missile was still in its testing stage). The missiles are believed to be stored in caves, where they can be transported via TELs, or silos. Launch preparation probably only takes ten to fifteen minutes.
The range of the missile and its platform flexibility make it a considerable force, even against powers as far away as the US. The missile is much smaller than its Chinese ICBM predecessors, and its solid-propellant base make it much less vulnerable in the launch stage. It can easily be hidden and transported, and if fired, it may have considerable ability to evade defensive systems. During a 1996 confrontation regarding PRC missile tests off the coast of Taiwan, a senior Communist Chinese official (and frequent policy spokesman), told a US official not to interfere with relations between the PRC and Taiwan because Americans “care more about Los Angeles than they do Tai Pei.” With the CSS-9 becoming operational in 2006 and 2007, this statement rings more loudly and clearly than ever.
-Updated 23 August 2010
Footnotes 1. Jane’s Strategic Weapons Systems, Issue 50, ed. Duncan Lennox, (Surrey: Jane’s Information Group, January 2009), 27-29.
2. Ibid; “Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009,” Office of the Secretary of Defense, p. 66, available at http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf, accessed on 22 July 2010.
3. Jane’s, 27-29.
4. Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris, Matthew G. McKinzie, “Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning,” The Federation of American Scientists & the Natural Resources Defense Council, November 2006, p. 76, available at http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/Book2006.pdf, accessed on 22 July 2010.
5. Jane’s, 27-29.
6. “Annual Report to Congress…2009,” p. 25, 66.
7. Jane’s, 27-29.
8. “DongFeng 31A (CSS-9) Intercontinental Ballistic Missile,” Sinodefence.com, available at http://www.sinodefence.com/strategic/missile/df31.asp, accessed on 22 July 2010.
9. “Annual Report to Congress…2009,” p. 24.
10. "Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2010," Office of the Secretary of Defense, p. 34 and 66, available at http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2010_CMPR_Final.pdf, accessed on 23 August 2010.
11. Jane’s, 27-29.
12. Hans M. Kristensen, et. al, p. 76.
2009 Report on Chinese Military Power
March 26, 2009 :: Department of Defense :: News
The Defense Department this week released its 2009 report, Military Power of the People's Republic of China, as mandated by Congress. The annual report describes China's continued development and deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the development of a new class of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, and the steady increase of medium range ballistic missiles near both the China-India border and the Chinese coast near Taiwan. China also continues to pursue both counterspace and cyberwarfare capabilities, which could threaten America's considerable reliance upon space and electronic assets.
As it does every year, the Chinese government reacted negatively to the report. Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang suggested that the United States "drop the Cold War thinking and prejudices, stop releasing such China military reports and stop the groundless accusations over China."
Ballistic and Cruise Missiles
China, the report observes, "has the most active land-based ballistic and cruise missile program in the world."
One highlight of China's missile efforts is the development of an anti-ship variant of the CSS-5 ballistic missile. This anti-ship missile has a considerable range, of some 1,500 km. Its final stage is designed for maneuverable reentry, making its target more difficult to anticipate, and thus complicating defense against the missile. Such a missile could enhance the Chinese ability to attack ships at sea, including for example American aircraft carriers in the Taiwan Strait.
Unchanged from the 2008 report, China continues to deploy road-mobile solid-fueled ICBMs—most notably the DF-31A, which brings within range any location in the continental United States. The DF-31 and DF-31A are the newest and most sophisticated ICBMs in China's arsenal. Their mobility and solid-fuel engines also make them among the most survivable.
The Pentagon's estimate of China's inventory of CSS-2, CSS-3, CSS-4, DF-31, DF-31A and CSS-5 ballistic missiles remains unchanged in number from last year. China has, however, increased its inventory since 2007 of CSS-6s (from 315-355 to 350-400), of CSS-7s (from 675-715 to 700-750), and of DH-10 cruise missiles (from 50-250 to 150-350).
The JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is still being developed. Once completed, the JL-2 will be deployed aboard new JIN-class (Type 094) submarines. With a range of 7,200 km, the JL-2 would give China its "first credible sea-based nuclear strike capability."
China's industrial ability to produce and upgrade short- and medium-range ballistic missiles has also increased. The Pentagon estimates China could significantly increase the number of short range missiles it produces each year, and could even double the annual output of medium range missiles. The increased production capability may be designed to create a missile export market, thereby proliferating such systems abroad.
China continues to expand the force opposite Taiwan; seven brigades are now stationed nearby, comprising a total of 1,050-1,150 CSS-6 and CSS-7 short range missiles. China continues to augment its missiles within striking distance of Taiwan at the "rate of more than 100 per year."
Along its border with India, China has replaced its older liquid-fueled nuclear-capable CSS-3 intermediate range missiles with more sophisticated solid-fueled CSS-5 medium range missiles.
China continues to produce and purchase an array of sophisticated and accurate cruise missiles, including the DH-10 and YJ-62 land-attack cruise missiles and the Russian SS-N-22/SUNBURN supersonic air-launched cruise missile. The SS-N-27B/SIZZLER supersonic air-launched cruise missile is placed on China's KILO-class diesel electric submarines purchased from Russia. The YJ-62C, a new variant of the YJ-62, has a range of 150 nautical miles; China has reportedly deployed 120 of these to naval bases near Taiwan.
Submarines and Ships
China's growing submarine fleet could begin to pose a threat to the United States navy. Two new SHANG-class (Type 093) nuclear-powered attack submarines and one JIN-class (Type 094) submarine, previously scheduled to enter service last year, are now operational. The JIN-class is of particular interest, as it will be the deployment vehicle for the JL-2 ballistic missile now in development.
These newer submarines will supplement China's four older HAN-class nuclear attack submarines and China's one XIA-class sub. The DoD estimates that China has 13 SONG-class (Type 039) diesel-electric attack submarines, designed to carry the YJ-82 (CH-SS-N-7) anti-ship cruise missile. The next generation attack submarine is the YUAN-class SS: one of these is already operational and another is undergoing sea trials. Judging from China's purchase of diesel engines from Germany, the report estimates that China plans to build up to 15 additional YUAN-class attack submarines.
China's guided-missile destroyers have been hardened and are being given anti-aircraft capabilities, including both Russian and indigenous surface to air missiles (SAMs). These include the Russian SA-N-20 long-range SAM and China's own medium-range HHQ-16, a vertically launched naval SAM under development.
Space and Counterspace
Since China successfully tested a direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon in January 2007 using a ballistic missile, China has continued to pursue ASAT capabilities. The 2009 report describes China's interest in counterspace systems as "more than theoretical. In addition to the ‘kinetic kill' capability demonstrated by the ASAT test, the PLA is developing the ability to jam, blind, or otherwise disable satellites and their terrestrial support infrastructure."
China placed fifteen satellites into orbit in 2008, including four new remote sensing satellites, a manned spacecraft and a companion satellite, three communications satellites, and two satellites for meteorology. In April 2008, China launched its first data relay satellite, the TianLian-1.
Construction has begun for a new rocket launch facility near Wenchang to eventually place heavier payloads in space using its March V booster rocket (the world's largest) still in development.
China's first lunar probe, the Chang'e-1, continues to operate successfully. Its successor will launch in 2009 and will survey the moon surface. China, however, continues to "remain silent about the military applications of [its] space programs and counterspace activities."
Cyberwarfare
China continues to experiment with cyberwarfare. The PRC appears to have been the source of numerous cyber intrusions during 2008, including against computer systems owned by the U.S. Government. These hacks were intended to extract information rather than attack, but the logistics and skill-set required for each activity are similar.
Spending
China's defense spending grew 18% in 2008. China reports its annual military budget as $60 billion, but this number is widely recognized as understated. Pentagon estimates of actual military spending range from $105 to $150 billion. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Cruise Missiles, Taiwan
» Missile details: CSS-3 (DF-4), CSS-4 (DF-5), CSS-4 (DF-5A), CSS-5 (DF-21), CSS-5 Mod 2 (DF-21A/B), CSS-6 (DF-15/M-9), CSS-7 (DF-11), CSS-7 Mod 2 (DF-11A), CSS-8 (M-7), CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A), CSS-N-3 (JL-1), CSS-N-3 (JL-1A), CSS-NX-5/CSS-NX-4 (JL-2)
China Test Launches Dong Feng-31 ICBM
September 5, 2006 :: Itar-Tass :: News
China yesterday test launched a CSS-9 (Dong Feng-31) intercontinental ballistic missile, according to a report by Itar-Tass. The missile was launched from the Wuzhai site towards the Taklimakan desert and traveled approximately 2,500 kilometers, according to a Russian official. Itar-Tass notes that an improved longer-range version, the Dongfeng-31A, is expected to be commissioned in 2007. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A)
Classified Section of China Report Said to Specify Missile Capabilities
July 27, 2005 :: BBC Worldwide Monitoring :: News
An alleged “classified section” of the Pentagon’s 2005 China report may provide greater detail on China’s missile capabilities. The Taiwanese Central News Agency cites an article posted on a website which monitors Chinese weaponry(www.zgjunshi.com) as saying that the classified version of the Pentagon’s recent report on the military power of China specifies that the communist nation has nine brigades armed with ICBMs capable of reaching the U.S. Of these, three are armed with the road-mobile Dong Feng-31 (CSS-9), and the other six with the silo-based Dong Feng-5 (CSS-4). The website also claims that China’s 094 submarines, armed with strategic missiles, have undertaken sea trials and could become a less expensive way for China to deploy its ICBMs. The article’s claims are unconfirmed, and the Taipei-based Central News Agency notes that “It was unclear how reporters from the China-based website were able to gain access to secret Pentagon information.”
The claims reported by the Taiwanese news service may, however, simply be a case of the Chinese demonstrating that the classified section of the document is within their reach, or perhaps of China making a statement about the report’s findings by means of an article posted online. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
» Missile details: CSS-4 (DF-5), CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A)
Pentagon Releases Report on Chinese Military Power
July 20, 2005 :: Department of Defense :: News
The Pentagon has released its annual report to Congress on Chinese military power, which describes China at “a strategic crossroads.” The 45-page report covers a host of topics, including Chinese military strategy and doctrine, the effects of military modernization, and an assessment of the security situation in the Taiwan Strait. “Questions remain about the basic choices China’s leaders will make as China’s power and influence grow, particularly its military power.” Of particular note is attention to such themes as China’s defense spending, strategic missile forces, the increasing number of short range missiles deployed near Taiwan, space policy, and the threat posed by a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse. (More »»»)
» NY Times: China’s Military Geared to Deterring Taiwan, Report Says
» Text of 2004 DOD Report on Chinese Military Power
» More stories on: China, Chinese Missile Defenses, Space-Based Systems
» Missile details: CSS-2 (DF-3, DF-3A), CSS-3 (DF-4), CSS-4 (DF-5), CSS-4 (DF-5A), CSS-5 Mod 2 (DF-21A/B), CSS-5 (DF-21), CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A), CSS-NX-5/CSS-NX-4 (JL-2)
» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble)
IISS: Eight DF-31 Missiles Deployed
November 24, 2004 :: East Asia Intel :: News
In its Military Balance review published in mid-October, the International Institute of Strategic Studies reported that China has deployed some eight DF-31 ICBMs, notes East Asia Intel. Although some claimed that this is the first report that the DF-31 (CSS-9) has actually been operationally deployed, this is not the case. Specifying that eight are deployed, however, is significant, and may be the first such count. Given the cautious methodology of the IISS, however, the actual number deployed may be considerably more. Department of Defense and CIA estimates have been more circumspect yet, not reporting that the DF-31 has been deployed at all. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
» Missile details: CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A)
China Military Exercise May Have Included Test of DF-31, Other Missiles
July 27, 2004 :: News
Two weeks ago, several reports indicated that China that it would be testing three missiles during its large military exercises preparing for an assault against Taiwan. The missiles included the DF-31 ICBM, as well as the DF-21 and the JL-2. Two Chinese news services, People’s Daily and Xinhau noted on July 22 that China had notified Russia of its intent to conduct the test during its military exercise, which have since taken place, on July 26. A subsequent report by East Asia Intel suggested that the test would not include the DF-21, since that test had apparently already taken place earlier this year.
Since there has been little media coverage of China’s exercises, it remains unclear if the missile tests were carried out as planned. (Link)
» More stories on: China, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: CSS-5 Mod 2 (DF-21A/B), CSS-5 (DF-21), CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A), CSS-NX-5/CSS-NX-4 (JL-2)
Chinese Missile Tests, Wargames, to Intimidate Taiwan
July 13, 2004 :: Reuters :: News
China plans to conduct a large military exercise later this month to demonstrate its military and especially air superiority to neighboring Taiwan. The exercise to take place at Dongshan island, 150 miles from Taiwan, is said to include several ballistic missile tests as well, including the medium range DF-21 (CSS-5), the mobile, long range DF-31 (CSS-9) ICBM, and the submarine launched version of the DF-31, the JL-2 (CSS-NX-5), reports the Russian Itar-Tass news agency. One year ago, in June 2003, Bill Gertz reported that China planned to test the same three missiles in the coming month.
It is worth noting that Beijing’s test will coincide with the visit to China by National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. Since China would have no need to use an ICBM against such a near target as Taiwan, one must suppose that the launch of two ICBMs, the DF-31 and JL-2, could be a signal to the United States that it should not interfere with a Chinese attack on the island.
Itar-Tass claims that the test will be of a new version of the DF-31, with an increased range and multiple warhead capability. The two land-based missiles will reportedly be fired from the Wuzhai testing ground in Shanxi Province, and will be directed at China’s northeast, the Lop Nur test range. A Chinese government report released July 4 describes the test as both the “largest scale exercise this year,” and that it is meant to serve a “substantial warning” to Taiwan. (Article, Link)
» June 30, 2003: China Set to Test Missiles
» More stories on: China, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: CSS-5 Mod 2 (DF-21A/B), CSS-5 (DF-21), CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A), CSS-NX-5/CSS-NX-4 (JL-2)
Pentagon Report: China’s Space Power Increasing
June 1, 2004 :: Department of Defense :: Analysis
The Department of Defense released its annual report to Congress, The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, which details China’s continued expansion of their ballistic missile capabilities, and ambitions of military superiority in the region, as well as significant ambitions in space.
The report also notes that China is devoting significant electronic warfare systems which could be used to jam the US GPS constellation, as well as “robust” research and development program for laser weapons. In addition, “Beijing may have acquired high-energy laser equipment that could be used in the development of ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons.”
Space, too, is essential to the future of modern warfare, and China is pursuing electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons, and “microsatellites.” All of this continues, despite China’s salutary denials of the militarization of space, and criticism of any American attempts to defend space assets: “Publicly, China opposes the militarization of space and seeks to prevent or slow the development of U.S. anti-satellite (ASAT) systems and space-based missile defenses,” the report notes; “Privately, however, China’s leaders probably view ASAT systems—and offensive counterspace systems, in general—as well as space-based missile defenses as inevitabilities.” China is said to be pursuing foreign technologies to develop its own domestic satellite-killing capability; “Given China’s current level of interest in laser technology, Beijing probably could develop a weapon that could destroy satellites in the future,” the report notes.
China also continues to modernize and accelerate its ballistic missile arsenal. China officially has only 20 ICBMs capable of striking the United States, but the report notes that it could have 30 by 2005, and as many as 60 by the end of the decade. Beijing is also expected to replace its 20 CSS-4 Mod 1 ICBMs with a still longer-range version, and to deploy the DF-31 ICBM by the end of the decade—if they have not done so already. (More »»»)
» Annual report, The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (.pdf)
» More stories on: China, Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Weapons, Proliferation, Space-Based Systems
» Missile details: CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A)
China Set to Test Missiles
June 20, 2003 :: Inside the Ring (Washington Times) :: News
China is reportedly planning to test three missiles in the coming weeks, the new long-range and mobile DF-31, the medium range DF-21, and the JL-2 SLBM. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: CSS-5 Mod 2 (DF-21A/B), CSS-5 (DF-21), CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A), CSS-NX-5/CSS-NX-4 (JL-2)
Russia: China Test Launches CSS-X-9
January 22, 2003 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
The February 1 edition of Janes Missiles and Rockets reports that Russia detected a launch and test of the new Chinese mobile ICBM on November 23, 2002. The DF-31 tested, also known as the CSS-X-9, was launched from a test site at Uchzhai in the Tekimakan desert and went some 1,700 km before impact.
Janes notes that according to the Department of Defense, the DF-31 will likely be operational “before mid-decade.” (Link)
» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A)
