| Country: |
Russian Federation |
| Alternate Name: |
Yantz/Yahres |
| Class: |
ICBM |
| Basing: |
Silo/TEL |
| Payload: |
6 MIRV |
| Warhead: |
150kT nuclear; 500kT nuclear |
| Propulsion: |
3-stage solid |
| Range: |
10,500 km |
| Status: |
Operational |
| In Service: |
December 2009 or July 2010 |
Details
The RS-24 missile probably represents the future of Russian nuclear deterrence. As the missile has just entered operation, little is known with certainty about its design or specification. It is probably a three-stage, solid propellant, MIRV-capable ICBM with a range of 10,500 km.(1)
Many sources concur that the RS-24 is merely an improved version of the Topol-M (RS-12) missile that brings MIRV and ABM-evasion measures to its predecessor.(2) Some sources suggest that the missile is a wholly new project.(3) The problem is heavily complicated by the START treaties, which make certain allowances and prohibitions regarding new missiles, missile prototypes, and upgrades to existing missiles.(4) The Russian government may be trying to stay within these rules (or “loosely” within the rules) or simply to keep secret any performance specifications which stray outside the rules. Speculation about whether the missile is based on the Topol-M seems to follow from the supposed specifications of the new missile. For example, if the RS-24 missile will carry 6 MIRV, then it will require some substantial changes to the Topol-M design to account for the necessary extra thrust: such changes could be significant enough to make the RS-24 qualify as a new missile instead of simply an upgrade missile (under START I regulations).(5) Perhaps due to these regulations, there may be some connection between the end of the START I treaty and the release of the RS-24 missile (in December 2009).
The missile also likely borrows from the Bulava 30 (SS-NX-30) SLBM missile program. The Bulava program, started in 1998, is expected to equip its missiles with between 4 and 10 MIRV armed with a corresponding number of 150kT nuclear warheads. These MIRV are believed to employ side-thrust motors, fins, and decoys to outmaneuver missile defense systems before dropping on targets with an accuracy of 250 to 300 m CEP. There may be an alternate-payload version which would use a single RV with a 500 kT nuclear warhead.(6) With such heavy payloads combined with an average accuracy, both the Bulava 30 and the RS-24 (assuming it uses the same or similar RVs) announce a clear message of deterrence. They would likely be most effective against large, soft targets and not very effective as counterstrike weapons.
Though the Russian designator, RS-24, suggests a silo-based missile (the RS-18 and RS-20, which the missile is supposed to replace, are both silo-based), testing suggests otherwise. At least two of the three test firings have used TEL vehicles as the launch platform. Test launches have been made in May 2007, December 2007, and November 2008.(7) It is possible that the missile will replace the RS-18 and RS-20 with a silo-based variant while replacing the Topol-M with a TEL-based version.
In April 2010, Russian nuclear scientist Yuri Solomon indicated that the missile entered operation in December 2009, though official Russian military sources did not announce that the missile had entered operation until July 2010.(8) The missile is expected to stay in production until 2025.(9)
Footnotes
1. Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems, Issue 50, ed. Duncan Lennox, (Surrey: Jane's Information Group, January 2009) 169.
2. Pavel Podvig, “Le RS-24 est arrivé!” Russian strategic nuclear forces (blog), 19 July 2010, available at http://russianforces.org/blog/2010/07/le_rs-24_est_arriv.shtml, accessed on 3 September 2010; “Russia Tests New ICBM,” CBS News via Associated Press, 25 December 2007, available at http://cbs4.com/national/russia.icbm.test.2.617707.html, accessed on 3 September 2010; “A ballistic missile RS-24: Appointment and features,” (translated by Google) RIA Novosti, 28 November 2008, available at http://www.rian.ru/defense_safety/20081128/156068494.html, accessed on 3 September 2010.
3. Jane's 169.
4. Pavel Podvig, “Is RS-24 a new missile?” Russian strategic nuclear forces (blog), 6 July 2007, available at http://russianforces.org/blog/2007/07/is_rs24_a_new_missile.shtml, accessed on 3 September 2010.
5. Jane’s 169.
6. Ibid 119.
7. Ibid, 169; “A ballistic missile RS-24: Appointment and features” (see above).
8. Dmitry Litovkin, “Do Not Tolerate ‘Clubs’,” (translated by Google) interview with Yuri Solomon, Investia, 13 April 2010, available at http://izvestia.ru/person/article3140744/, accessed on 3 September 2010; “First division of SS-24 put on combat duty in Russia,” (translated by Google), RIA Novosti, 19 July 2010, available at http://www.rian.ru/defense_safety/20100719/256297648.html, accessed on 3 September 2010.
9. Jane’s 169.
Russia Successfully Tests New RS-24 ICBM
December 25, 2007 :: AP :: News
Russia's Strategic Missile Forces announced the successful test of the new RS-24 ballistic missile on December 25. The missile was launched from the Plestsk facility in northern Russia and destroyed targets on the Kura testing range located on the Kamchatka Peninsula. Said to be based on the Topol-M, the RS-24 is designed to replace aging Soviet-era missiles such as the RS-18 and the RS-20 (known as the SS-19 and SS-18 in the West). Interfax reports that the RS-24 missile can carry up to three warheads. The Strategic Missile Forces's statement declared, "The RS-24's deployment will strengthen the Strategic Missile Forces' capability to penetrate missile defense systems and strengthen the nuclear deterrent potential of Russia's strategic nuclear forces...The RS-24 will form the backbone of the Strategic Missile Forces and safely ensure the security of Russia and its allies through the mid-century." (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: RS-24, SS-27
Podvig on the Russian RS-24 as Modified Topol-M
July 6, 2007 :: Analysis
The RS-24 missile that Russia tested on May 29, 2007 is a multiple-warhead version of the Topol-M and not a new missile, concludes Russian analyst Pavel Podvig writing for the Russian Forces blog. Russia has long wanted to have a MIRV version of the Topol-M, assuming it could compensate the slow pace of missile deployment by making the forces look bigger. However, under the guidelines of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), Russia and the U.S. are forbidden from "increasing the number of warheads attributed to an ICBM or SLBM of an existing or new type [of missile] (Article V.12d)". Since under the guidelines of the treaty, the Topol-M would be considered a variant of the Topol missile, Russia cannot declare that it will be equipped with multiple warheads. Therefore, Russia declared the Topol-M a "new" missile.
It is (almost) official now - the RS-24 missile that Russia tested on May 29, 2007 is a multiple-warhead version of Topol-M. That was my guess at the time of the test, but now I have had it confirmed. The missile, of course, have a new warhead section, but it is a Topol-M. It was said to use a guidance system that shares technology with that of the Bulava SLBM and, just as I suspected, it will be using the same warheads. It appears, though, that MIRVed Topol-M will carry no more than six warheads (the range was reported to be from three to six, but no final number yet).
MIRVing of Topol-M has long been somewhat of an obsession in Russia - there is a broad consensus among experts across the spectrum that this could compensate for the slow pace of the missile deployment, if only by artificially making the Russian forces look bigger. I think this belief is deeply misguided, but this is where the Russian debate stands. ...
At the moment, Russia can declare it as a prototype, which means it does not have to attribute a number of warheads or throw-weight to the missile until it is flight-tested at least 20 times or deployed. Since START is set to expire in December 2009, this means that Russia may avoid a conflict with the treaty by simply withholding the final throw-weight declaration until then.
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, Russia
» Missile details: RS-24
