| Country: |
Iran |
| Associated Country: |
North Korea |
| Class: |
IRBM or ICBM |
| Basing: |
Surface based |
| Payload: |
Single warhead |
| Propulsion: |
2 or 3-stage liquid/solid |
| Range: |
4000+ km |
| Status: |
Development |
Details
Iran may be developing a multi-stage ballistic missile intended to achieve a range in excess of 4000 km. Unconfirmed reports have suggested that Iran is working on such a project and has named that project Shahab 5, following in the line of Shahab missiles. As with all Iranian missile programs, details are not forthcoming – and the Iranian government denies its existence. Since Iran has yet to test anything like the Shahab 5, the denials are somewhat plausible. Belief in the existence of a Shahab 5 program seems to come from a general sense of Iran’s military ambitions and reports that suggest a continued missile-partnership between Iran and North Korea.
In July 2006, North Korea tested the two-stage, liquid-propelled, ICBM Taep'o dong 2. It is believed that Iranian engineers were present, suggesting some collaboration between North Korea and Iran on the project.1 Such collaboration would not be unexpected, as Iran first developed its missile program with North Korean assistance and has collaborated on several previous missile projects. The original Shahab 3, for example, was believed to be an imitation of the North Korean No Dong missile.2 Supposing that the Shahab 5 was a copy of the Taep’o dong 2 missile, then it would be a two-stage, liquid-propelled ICBM. The Taep’o dong 2 is believed to have a range between 6000 and 9000 km and carry a 750 kg warhead.3 Unfortunately, there is little information about the development or specifications of the Taep’o dong 2 missile. Fortunately, the lack of information probably means that North Korea is in the early testing stages of a missile that is not yet operational.
Since Iran has yet to demonstrate its ability to build or implement advanced guidance systems, an ICBM-range Iranian missile would likely have poor accuracy. Assuming it to have a fairly poor accuracy, the missile's utility would probably be restricted to attacking population centers or spreading radiation rather than hitting military targets. (Consider how a small degree of error – say 1% - is magnified as the range increases; this degree of error requires correction from a sophisticated guidance system that can respond to environmental variables.4) Unless Iran is able to make drastic improvements in their missile guidance systems, the missile is probably more of a blackmail or terrorist weapon than a military asset.
The threat of a missile with the capable range equal to that of the projected range of the Shahab 5 is inspiring warmth towards U.S. missile defense systems amongst smaller eastern European nations.5 There is also the possibility that Iran will give or sell its missile technology to rogue states or terrorist groups antagonistic to the United States. Iran's military is known to support terrorist groups, openly supporting Hezbollah, and the Iranian government has little central control over its own missile force.
Some reports suggest that the Shahab 5 has been tested, but most of these tests appear to have been tests of Shahab 3 variants or SLVs using Shahab 3 technology. Taep’o dong 2 engines may have been tested in Iran in 2005 and 2006.6
Footnotes
1.
Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems, Issue 50, ed. Duncan Lennox, (Surrey: Jane's Information Group, January 2009), 79, 103.
2. Ibid 76-78.
3. Ibid 102-103.
4.
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A Net Assessment, an IISS Strategic Dossier, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, (East Sussex: Hastings Print, May 2010) 58.
5. "US Missile defence system aimed at ‘global intentions' -Czech pundit," BBC Monitoring Europe- Political, www.bbc.co.uk , 16 February 2007, Accessed on 9 June 2008.
6. Jane's, 103.
Iran Could Test ICBMs by 2005
May 20, 2004 :: Middle East Newsline :: News
Middle East Newsline reports that U.S. intelligence officials believe that Iran could begin testing components of intercontinental ballistic missile in 2005, likely from the Shahab missile family.
“During 2003, Iran continued R&D in its longer-range ballistic missile programs, and publicly reiterated its intention to develop space launch vehicles — and SLVs contain most of the key building blocks for an ICBM,” CIA director George Tenet told the Senate Intelligence Committee on Feb. 24. “Iran could begin flight-testing these systems in the mid- to latter-part of the decade.” (Article, Link)
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