| Country: |
Iran |
| Associated Country: |
North Korea, Pakistan |
| Class: |
MRBM |
| Basing: |
Road mobile |
| Length: |
16.58 m |
| Diameter: |
1.38 m |
| Launch Weight: |
17410 kg |
| Payload: |
Single warhead, 1,200 or 800 kg |
| Warhead: |
Nuclear, HE, chemical, or submunitions |
| Propulsion: |
Single-stage liquid |
| Range: |
800-1300 km km |
| Status: |
Operational |
| In Service: |
July 2003? |
Details
The Shahab 3 is a medium range, liquid-propellant, road-mobile ballistic missile. The Shahab 3 represents Iran’s first successful attempt to acquire medium range ballistic missiles that give Iran the capability to threaten targets (like Israel) which lie beyond Iran’s immediate borders. The original Shahab 3 missile is nearly identical to the North Korean No Dong 1 missile, and almost certainly is based on technology and parts from North Korea. Pakistan has also shared in this technology to build the Hatf 5 missile. Later variations of the missile, which may represent significant domestic technology improvement, are covered in a separate entry.
North Korea, a country that has long supplied Iran with missiles and missile technology, began development of the No Dong 1 in the mid-1980s. Neither North Korea, nor Iran, nor Pakistan had well-developed missile programs at the time, so it is believed that the original technology came from either Russia or China. It seems likely that the North Koreans borrowed engine designs from the Russian SS-3 (R-5) missile, though the No Dong missile is significantly smaller.1 The connection to the Russian missile seems likely for two reasons: 1. Russia has been known to declassify obsolete missile designs, thus allowing them to fall into other hands. 2. The No Dong missile is believed to use the same fuel and oxidizer as many Russian missiles. Regardless of where the technology came from, the North Koreans almost certainly did not build the missile without some outside guidance, as their limited experience would have required far more initial testing than is believed to have been conducted. Moreover, both Iran and Pakistan invested in the North Korean technology prior to much testing – a move that they probably would not have made if the success of the technology was uncertain (as it would be if it had not yet been heavily tested elsewhere).2
Both the No Dong missile and the Shahab 3 missile look much like an oversized ‘Scud’ missile; however, the later missiles represent some major departures that are important from technology and performance perspectives.3 On the technology side, the missiles use an engine that is similar, but larger than that used on the ‘Scud’ missiles. This fact is important because North Korea’s prior experience was almost entirely gained by modifying – not redesigning – ‘Scud’ engines. From a performance perspective, the increased size allows for a significantly increased range without making a missile that is too large for TEL-basing. While using a single-stage liquid propellant engine (like a ‘Scud’), the No Dong and the Shahab 3 employ a separating RV unit. The ability to build a two-stage missile (engine + re-entry vehicle) is potentially a significant intermediate step between short-range, low payload missiles (like ‘Scuds’) and much longer-range, heavier payload missiles.
Testing began on the No Dong missiles in 1990. In 1993, it is believed that Iran and Pakistan entered into an agreement with North Korea to buy missiles and/or share the technology. At least one No Dong missile was tested in 1993, and Iran and Pakistan likely sent representatives to witness the test. While Iran initially purchased a great number of the No Dong missiles, international pressure seems to have led to the transfer of only a few missiles. In 1997, engine testing on the Shahab 3 began in Iran, presumably with a small number of No Dong missiles or missile components from North Korea.4
The abilities and specifications of the Shahab 3 are largely based upon foreign speculation and aggressive Iranian diplomacy. Iran is known to rename missile programs, exaggerate about missile performance abilities, and declare that untested technologies are operational. To further complicate the problem, it is frequently unclear which versions of the Shahab 3 are referred to by Iranian officials and western intelligence reports. Contrasting reports suggest that the missile is between 15.6 and 16.58 m in length and 1.25 and 1.38 m in diameter. These same reports place the range between 800 and 1300 km with payloads varying between 760 and 1200 kg.5 The range is likely about 1000 km, but varies widely depending upon the weight of the payload. Heavier and more effective payloads, like those employing first-generation nuclear warheads, would likely have a much shorter range than a smaller (and much less consequential) unitary HE warhead. The total launch weight is probably about 17,410 kg.
Most sources suggest that the guidance system of the Shahab 3 is based upon the inertial system used in the ‘Scud’ missiles, giving the missile an accuracy of about 2500 m CEP. The Pakistani version, the Hatf 5, is believed to employ Chinese guidance technology that significantly improves accuracy.6 The Shahab 3 may use similar technology, especially in its later variants, but early versions of the missile likely had very poor accuracy. With an accuracy of 2500 m CEP, the Shahab 3 missile is primarily effective against large, soft targets (like cities).
Warhead options may include biological and chemical weapons, but as ballistic missiles are an expensive and not highly effective method of deploying chemical and biological agents, Iran would presumably favor nuclear or HE warheads for the Shahab 3.7 Iran’s nuclear ambitions are no secret, though it is not yet known whether Iran has successfully acquired or built nuclear warheads. The Shahab 3 could use a nuclear warhead similar to the warhead design sold by A.Q. Khan to Libya.8
Following initial testing in 1997, the Shahab 3 was first flight tested in 1998. The test appears to have been largely unsuccessful as the missile exploded prior to reaching any target (though it may have flown over 1000 km first). A second test in July 2000 successfully flew 850 km. A third test, supposedly of a satellite-launch variant, was unsuccessfully held in September 2000. A fourth test in January 2002 failed after the missile caught fire during the pre-launch fueling sequence, though a May 2002 test was successful. Tests in July and August of 2002 appear to have been unsuccessful. An eighth test in July 2003 appears to have been successful and reportedly flew over 1300 km.9 Since July 2003, the missile is believed to have been in operational use. Subsequent tests have primarily been held for Shahab 3 variants, which are covered in another entry.
Initial production of 12 to 15 missiles per year may have begun as early as 1998 (presumably by copying a yet-unperfected version of the No Dong missile), but the number of Shahab 3 missiles and its variants are unknown.10
Footnotes
1.
Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems, Issue 50, ed. Duncan Lennox, (Surrey: Jane's Information Group, January 2009), 76.
2.
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A Net Assessment, an IISS Strategic Dossier, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, (East Sussex: Hastings Print, May 2010) 18-19.
3. Ibid 17-20.
4.
Jane’s, 76.
5. See
Jane’s, 76-79;
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities, 17-24; Anthony H. Cordesman, “Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction: Capabilities, Developments, and Strategic Uncertainties,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, 14 October 2008, available at
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/081015_iran.wmd.pdf, accessed on 22 October 2010.
6.
Jane’s, 113-15.
7.
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities, 125-27.
8. Ibid, 20.
9.
Jane’s, 78-79.
10. Ibid.
Israeli Missile Defense Test Success
April 29, 2009 :: AP :: News
On April 7, the Israeli Ministry of Defense and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency conducted a successful test of the "Arrow" ballistic missile defense system. The system—a joint venture of Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. and Boeing—was started as a response to the U.S. military's inability to intercept Scud rockets fired on Israel by Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War.
The Arrow system, designed to intercept short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, has been tested 17 times since its inception; the missile used in this latest test was the Arrow II. Israel's dominating security concern right now is the possibility of an attack by Iran, particularly in the form of a Shahab class ballistic missile. The Shahab-III has a range of up to 1,250 miles, which puts Israel within reach.
Rick Lehner of the Missile Defense Agency called the test evidence of "the most advanced version of the Arrow weapons system in terms of the ability to perform the type of intercept that would be necessary to destroy a ballistic missile target." (Article, Link)
» Boeing's Press Release
» More stories on: Israel
» Missile details: Shahab 3
» Missile system details for: Arrow
Iran Conducts Missile Tests
July 9, 2008 :: New York Times :: News
Iran reportedly tested seven missiles today from a location in the Iranian desert reportedly near the Strait of Hormuz. Of the several missiles fired, reports indicate that one was the medium range Shahab-3, capable of reaching targets at a range of up to 2000 km. The other missiles fired include shorter range ballistic missiles such as the Zelzal and the Fateh 110. It is yet unclear whether the tests were successful. Iran is believed to have numerous Zelzal and Fateh missiles, and supplies them to other countries and rogue groups.
In addition to the missiles tested today, Iran is also believed to be developing longer range missiles, titled Shahab-4 and Shahab- 5, with increased range, payload, and accuracy. The rhetoric of missile bombardment most often comes from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Tehran's most elite soldiers with nearly complete control over the Iranian missile forces. The IRGC is commanded by Hossein Salami who released a statement today saying, "Our missiles are ready for shooting at any place and any time, quickly and with accuracy. The enemy must not repeat its mistakes. The enemy targets are under surveillance." The IRGC often conducts war games in Iran's western provinces. The majority of war games which include missile tests occur around the mountainous region of Khorramabad.
Iran's tests occur on a regular basis. Yet the timing today seems deliberate, given the U.S. agreement with the Czech Republic yesterday for the stationing of missile defense radars. Gordon D. Johndroe, assistant White House press secretary, quickly responded to the tests today saying, "The Iranian regime only furthers the isolation of the Iranian people from the international community when it engages in this sort of activity."
Update: Subsequent reports dispute the number of missiles fired and the classification of those tested this week. This does not, however, alter the fact that the Shahab-3 has been successfully tested on many previous occasions.
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: Fateh A-110, Zelzal-1/2/3, Shahab 3
Iran Announces New Ballistic Missile
November 27, 2007 :: Reuters :: News
On November 27, Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar announced that Iran had developed a new ballistic missile called the Ashoura, with a range of 2,000 kilometers. It is unclear whether the Ashoura is indeed a new missile or a variation of the current Shahab-3, and Najjar did not say how the new weapon differed from the Shahab-3, which Iran has also previously claimed to have a range of 2,000km. With a range of 2,000 kilometers, the Ashoura missile could target Israel, U.S. assets in the Persian Gulf, and parts of eastern and southern Europe.
Mark Fitzpatrick, a weapons expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said, "I think it's a pretty strong likelihood that Iran has received technology that has extended the range of their missiles, and maybe the development of a whole new missile with a longer range." Israeli experts said that unlike the Shahab series, the Ashoura uses a multi-stage, solid-fuel engine that would make it especially effective for long-range strategic use.
Iran unveiled another new missile, Ghadr-1, with a range of 1,800 km at a military parade in September and, at that time, referred to the Shahab-3 as having a range of just 1,300 km. Najjar also said a new Iranian-built submarine would be delivered to the navy on Wednesday. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran
» Missile details: Shahab 3
Iran Developing Longer Range Missiles
December 2, 2004 :: New York Times :: News
Citing an Iranian opposition group, the New York Times today reports that Iran is secretly developing a ballistic missile of considerably longer-range than that which it currently admits to having, in part with the aid of North Korean scientists. The dissident group, also said to be a terrorist group, says the new missile would have a range of more than 1,500 miles (2,400km). Iran has already tested versions of its Shahab-3/4 with a range of 2,000km. Such a range would give the terrorist sponsoring nation the capability to target much of Europe.
Today the U.S. State Department also slapped sanctions on four Chinese entities (including one state-run firm) and one North Korean company, for their aiding Iran with its missile and weapons programs. Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs are not taking place in a vacuum, and their progress should come as no surprise. The proliferation of ballistic missile and weapons programs to Iran would seem to be a matter of high state policy for China and North Korea, as well as Russia, whose entities regularly receive similar sanctions and which is a primary contributor to Iran’s nuclear reactor programs.
Update: Dec. 3: Other reports include a more detailed description of the report by the National Council of Resistance of Iran. The council is said to have identified not one, but two longer-range missiles under development, calling them Ghadr 101 and Ghadr 110. Their ranges are said to be 2,500 and 3,000km, respectively. Reuters compares these missiles, being developed at the Hemmat Missile Industries complex, to the more advanced Scud E. Also of note is that the council described Iran’s August test of a Shahab missile as being of the Shahab-4, rather than the Shahab-3. Some have speculated that Iran’s retaining the same nomenclature for a more advanced missile may be part of a design to understate its capabilities. Iran has only admitted to having or pursuing missiles with a range of no more than 2,000km.
The council quoted by Middle East Newsline on December 2 describes the range of the Shahab-4 as between 2,000 to 3,000 kilometers—which may well be possible, but a 3,000km range for the Shahab-4 would seem to undercut the claim that a 3,000km range Ghadr missile would constitute a real improvement. (Article, Link)
» Dec. 2: State Dept. imposes sanctions on Chinese and North Korean entities
» Dec. 3: Reuters: two “Ghadr” missiles under development
» Dec. 3: Middle East Newsline: Iran-China satellite accord will aid Iranian missile accuracy
» More stories on: China, Iran, Proliferation
» Missile details: Shahab 3, Shahab 4
Powell: Iran Adapting Missiles to Carry Nuclear Warheads
November 18, 2004 :: Washington Post :: News
Departing Secretary of State Colin Powell recently remarked that Iran is preparing its missile systems to carry nuclear weapons. Despite the attention to the story, however, Powell’s comments do not constitute any new revelation. Nor should they come as any surprise, especially given the aid Iran has been receiving from abroad, and in particular from China and Russia. Unless and until one puts together the pieces to see the larger geopolitical alliances responsible for proliferation, one will continue to be surprised by these numerous and apparently unrelated stories. (More »»»)
» Nov. 18: Interfax: Russia will continue to aid Iran’s nuclear program
» Apr. 27: John Bolton: Russia China proliferating; Iran lying about peaceful character of nuclear program
» Nov. 18: Powell remarks on Iranian nuclear modifications to missiles
» More stories on: China, Iran, Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation
» Missile details: Shahab 3, Shahab 4
Iran Can Mass Produce Shahab
November 9, 2004 :: BBC :: News
Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani today announced that Iran is now capable of mass producing its Shahab-3 ballistic missile. “We are presently able to mass-produce the Shahab-3, just like we do with the Paykan,” the minister said, referring to Iran’s ubiquitous national automobile.
Shamkhani said that Iran had mastered the necessary technology, and that there were no limits on production. Shamkhani denied that Iran would be developing a longer range missile, and that current increases in range (to 2,000km) were for the purpose of being able to fire it from anywhere in Iran. “These are Zionist words and their intention is to suggest Iran is seeking to threaten Europe…We don’t feel any threat from Europe and we don’t see the need to invest in this field.” (More »»»)
» More stories on: Iran
» Missile details: Shahab 3, Shahab 4
Iran Again Tests Shahab-3
October 20, 2004 :: AFP :: News
Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani announced that Iran had today again tested an upgraded version of its Shahab-3 ballistic missile, in the presence of observers. Shamkhani would not comment on the specific range or the location of the test, but Iran has previously claimed that the “strategic” missile has a range of 2,000km; Iran’s IRNA news agency last month quoted former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani that Iran possessed that capability. Such a range not only threatens Israel, but also U.S. bases in the region and parts of Europe. Rafsanjani also commented at the time, “Experts know that a country that possesses this [range] can obtain all subsequent stages in missile production.”
On October 7, Nasser Maleki, the deputy director of Iran’s aerospace industry organization, commented that “Very certainly we are going to improve our Shahab-3 and all of our other missiles.”
Iran’s ballistic missile development has been steady, and not without foreign help. The recent upgrades to the Shahab-3 are believed to be due in part to Chinese assistance, including a more accurate guidance system and an improved warhead more suited to carryign chemical weapons. Hours after today’s test, the Moscow News carried a piece boasting that the Iranian Shahab-3, and the North Korean No-Dong from which it was partly derived, both employ Russian missile technology. (Article, Link)
» Iran’s Revolutionary Guard acquiring greater control
» Oct. 20: Moscow News: Russian missile tech used for Iranian, North Korean advances
» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Proliferation, Russia, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: Shahab 3, Shahab 4
Iran: Missiles Can Now Hit Europe
October 6, 2004 :: News
Iran is increasing its already much-publicized claims for its Shahab-3 and Shahab-4 missiles, which it continues to test and upgrade. This past week, Iran reported again that the Shahab-4 missile has a range of some 2,000 km, and that parts of Europe are now within range. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran
» Missile details: Shahab 3, Shahab 4
Iran Parades Ballistic Missiles
September 21, 2004 :: News
Iran paraded its Shahab-3 and other missiles today, draped by a number of anti-American slogans and banners. The banner comments included “crush America,” “wipe Israel off the map,” and “We will crush America under our feet.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran
» Missile details: Shahab 3
Iran Tests “Strategic,” Medium, and Short-Range Missiles
September 20, 2004 :: News
Iran announced that it tested a missile with a “strategic” range on September 19th. The test which was witnessed by the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, included a version of the Shahab-3 missile capable of carrying a one ton nuclear warhead. The Shahab-3 had been previously tested on August 11. The Israeli Haaretz newspaper has recently stated that the upgraded version of the Shahab-3 had a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,280 miles), much more than the previously estimates of 1,300 to 1,700 kilometers. In addition, unidentified short- and medium-range missiles were also said to have been test launched. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: Shahab 3
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