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The Shahab 3 is a medium range, liquid-propellant, road-mobile ballistic missile. The Shahab 3 represents Iran’s first successful attempt to acquire medium range ballistic missiles that give Iran the capability to threaten targets (like Israel) which lie beyond Iran’s immediate borders. The original Shahab 3 missile is nearly identical to the North Korean No Dong 1 missile, and almost certainly is based on technology and parts from North Korea. Pakistan has also shared in this technology to build the Hatf 5 missile. Later variations of the missile, which may represent significant domestic technology improvement, are covered in a separate entry.

North Korea, a country that has long supplied Iran with missiles and missile technology, began development of the No Dong 1 in the mid-1980s. Neither North Korea, nor Iran, nor Pakistan had well-developed missile programs at the time, so it is believed that the original technology came from either Russia or China. It seems likely that the North Koreans borrowed engine designs from the Russian SS-3 (R-5) missile, though the No Dong missile is significantly smaller.¹ The connection to the Russian missile seems likely for two reasons: 1. Russia has been known to declassify obsolete missile designs, thus allowing them to fall into other hands. 2. The No Dong missile is believed to use the same fuel and oxidizer as many Russian missiles. Regardless of where the technology came from, the North Koreans almost certainly did not build the missile without some outside guidance, as their limited experience would have required far more initial testing than is believed to have been conducted. Moreover, both Iran and Pakistan invested in the North Korean technology prior to much testing – a move that they probably would not have made if the success of the technology was uncertain (as it would be if it had not yet been heavily tested elsewhere).²

 Both the No Dong missile and the Shahab 3 missile look much like an oversized ‘Scud’ missile; however, the later missiles represent some major departures that are important from technology and performance perspectives.³ On the technology side, the missiles use an engine that is similar, but larger than that used on the ‘Scud’ missiles. This fact is important because North Korea’s prior experience was almost entirely gained by modifying – not redesigning – ‘Scud’ engines. From a performance perspective, the increased size allows for a significantly increased range without making a missile that is too large for TEL-basing. While using a single-stage liquid propellant engine (like a ‘Scud’), the No Dong and the Shahab 3 employ a separating RV unit. The ability to build a two-stage missile (engine + re-entry vehicle) is potentially a significant intermediate step between short-range, low payload missiles (like ‘Scuds’) and much longer-range, heavier payload missiles.

 Testing began on the No Dong missiles in 1990. In 1993, it is believed that Iran and Pakistan entered into an agreement with North Korea to buy missiles and/or share the technology. At least one No Dong missile was tested in 1993, and Iran and Pakistan likely sent representatives to witness the test. While Iran initially purchased a great number of the No Dong missiles, international pressure seems to have led to the transfer of only a few missiles. In 1997, engine testing on the Shahab 3 began in Iran, presumably with a small number of No Dong missiles or missile components from North Korea.⁴

 The abilities and specifications of the Shahab 3 are largely based upon foreign speculation and aggressive Iranian diplomacy. Iran is known to rename missile programs, exaggerate about missile performance abilities, and declare that untested technologies are operational. To further complicate the problem, it is frequently unclear which versions of the Shahab 3 are referred to by Iranian officials and western intelligence reports. Contrasting reports suggest that the missile is between 15.6 and 16.58 m in length and 1.25 and 1.38 m in diameter. These same reports place the range between 800 and 1300 km with payloads varying between 760 and 1200 kg.⁵ The range is likely about 1000 km, but varies widely depending upon the weight of the payload. Heavier and more effective payloads, like those employing first-generation nuclear warheads, would likely have a much shorter range than a smaller (and much less consequential) unitary HE warhead. The total launch weight is probably about 17,410 kg.

 Most sources suggest that the guidance system of the Shahab 3 is based upon the inertial system used in the ‘Scud’ missiles, giving the missile an accuracy of about 2500 m CEP. The Pakistani version, the Hatf 5, is believed to employ Chinese guidance technology that significantly improves accuracy.⁶ The Shahab 3 may use similar technology, especially in its later variants, but early versions of the missile likely had very poor accuracy. With an accuracy of 2500 m CEP, the Shahab 3 missile is primarily effective against large, soft targets (like cities).

 Warhead options may include biological and chemical weapons, but as ballistic missiles are an expensive and not highly effective method of deploying chemical and biological agents, Iran would presumably favor nuclear or HE warheads for the Shahab 3.⁷ Iran’s nuclear ambitions are no secret, though it is not yet known whether Iran has successfully acquired or built nuclear warheads. The Shahab 3 could use a nuclear warhead similar to the warhead design sold by A.Q. Khan to Libya.⁸

 Following initial testing in 1997, the Shahab 3 was first flight tested in 1998. The test appears to have been largely unsuccessful as the missile exploded prior to reaching any target (though it may have flown over 1000 km first). A second test in July 2000 successfully flew 850 km. A third test, supposedly of a satellite-launch variant, was unsuccessfully held in September 2000. A fourth test in January 2002 failed after the missile caught fire during the pre-launch fueling sequence, though a May 2002 test was successful. Tests in July and August of 2002 appear to have been unsuccessful. An eighth test in July 2003 appears to have been successful and reportedly flew over 1300 km.⁹ Since July 2003, the missile is believed to have been in operational use. Subsequent tests have primarily been held for Shahab 3 variants, which are covered in another entry.

 Initial production of 12 to 15 missiles per year may have begun as early as 1998 (presumably by copying a yet-unperfected version of the No Dong missile), but the number of Shahab 3 missiles and its variants are unknown.¹⁰

 

Footnotes

1.       Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems, Issue 50, ed. Duncan Lennox,  (Surrey: Jane's Information Group, January 2009), 76.
2.       Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A Net Assessment, an IISS Strategic Dossier, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, (East Sussex: Hastings Print, May 2010) 18-19.
3.       Ibid 17-20.
4.       Jane’s, 76.
5.       See Jane’s, 76-79; Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities, 17-24; Anthony H. Cordesman, “Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction: Capabilities, Developments, and Strategic Uncertainties,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, 14 October 2008, available at http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/081015_iran.wmd.pdf, accessed on 22 October 2010.
6.       Jane’s, 113-15.
7.       Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities, 125-27.
8.       Ibid, 20.
9.       Jane’s, 78-79.

10.   Ibid.

Iran to Use Missile to Launch Satellite by March; Plan Parallels North Korean 1998 Attempt

September 20, 2004 :: News

Iran is reportedly planning to use the improved version of its Shahab-3 missile to launch a small satellite into orbit, according to a defense industry source quoted by Reuters. The missile would reportedly carry a 20 kg experimental satellite to an orbit of 250 km above the earth. “It is just an experimental satellite which will send a simple signal,” the source said of the project, apparently called “Safir-313.” “Safir” is said to mean “emissary.”
        Reuters also reports that Iran announced in January that it meant to be the first Islamic country to go into space and added that it was building a launchpad.
        The significance of such a space launch would be to demonstrate an intercontinental capability for the Islamic nation—which is also an official state sponsor of terrorism. The speed and altitude necessary to have a missile reach orbit is similar to that of what an ICBM would need to travel from one side of the globe to the other. North Korea’s very similar 1998 attempt to put a small satellite into orbit demonstrated such ICBM capability. (Article, Link) 

» Aug. 31: Sixth anniversary of North Korean satellite launch

» More stories on: Iran

» Missile details: Shahab 3

Photos Indicate Improvements to Iranian Shahab-3

August 30, 2004 :: Ha'aretz :: News

Photographs of the Iranian Shahab-3 missile recently published in Iranian newspapers indicate that the warhead has undergone improvements. The photographs reportedly indicate that the missile’s warhead has a flatter shape, which would cause it to re-enter the atmosphere more slowly, allowing its contents to be better protected, important in the case of a chemical warhead. The Israeli Ha’aretz newspaper describes the improvements as characterizing “a daring approach to their technological planning,” and notes that “It is very likely that the Iranians are being assisted by foreign experts from the former Soviet Union hired by Iran under personal contracts, or by experts from North Korea.” The photographs also reportedly indicate that “various short wings” are added on the warhead itself, possibly to aid in re-entry. (Article, Link) 

» Washington Times on Shahab-3 warhead improvements

» More stories on: Iran, Technology

» Missile details: Shahab 3

Iran Tests Upgraded Shahab-3

August 11, 2004 :: News

Iran today tested what it describes as the most recent version of the already deployed Shahab-3 missile. With a range of 1,300km, the missile threatens all of Israel and some U.S. military bases in the Mideast region. The test closely follows upon Israel’s July 29 test of its Arrow II missile interceptor, which it hopes will protect it against especially the Iranian Shahab-3.
        Iran has recently renewed its pledge to wipe Israel “off the map.” The ISNA students news agency quoted Revolutionary Guard Commander Yahya Rahim Safavi as commenting today that the “If Israel behaves like a lunatic and attacks the Iranian nation’s interests, we will come down on their heads like a mallet and break their bones.” The Revolutionary Guard has direct control of the Shahab missile systems.
        Israel defense sources report that Tehran is also developing a “Shahab-4” missile with a range of 1,700 km, but Iran may be adding the additional range to the so-called improved Shahab-3, while understating its potential, and, by keeping the same name, not attract further international scrutiny.  (Article, Link) 

» Debka on Shahab-3 program

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Shahab 3, Shahab 4

North Korean Taepo-Dong II Now For Sale

May 5, 2004 :: Worldtribune.com :: News

Quoting “western intelligence sources,” worldtribune.com reports that North Korea has begun to offer its long-range Taepo-Dong II for sale to several middle eastern nations.
        The news comes just days after other reports that North Korea is building new missile bases, developing new missiles, has “at least” eight nuclear weapons, and, ironically enough, that Kim Jong Il pledged to the United States that he would not transfer ballistic missiles to terrorists. The sale of missiles is, however, North Korea’s primary source of revenue.
        Likely buyers include another rogue state and state sponsor of terrorism, Iran, which has apparently been negotiating a purchase with Pyongyang. Worldtribune’s source says that 2003 negotiations for the purchase of the Taepo-Dong by Syria and Libya apparently were not pursued, but that Iran was considering the Taepo-Dong as a possible basis for the its ICBM program, the Shahab-5, the development of the engines for which China is also named as an aid.
        Depending on the version of the Taepo-Dong II, the intercontinental missile has a range of 6000km or more. The three stage version of the missile has a range capable of striking the continental United States.  (Article, Link) 

» Dec. 14, 1999: North Korea Readies Taepo-Dong I missiles for sale to Iran

» Dec. 7, 1999: U.S. expects Iran will be North Korea’s first ICBM customer

» May 5, 2004: Middle East Newswire on Taepo Dong Market

» May 6, 2004: LA Times: North Korea “may” have missile to reach Guam

» More stories on: China, North Korea, Proliferation

» Missile details: Shahab 3, Taep'o Dong 2

North Korea Shipped 400 SCUDs to Middle East

October 23, 2003 :: SpaceDaily :: News

A report released by the South Korean defense ministry claims that North Korea has shipped over 400 SCUD-class ballistic missiles to the Middle East since the 1980s. The biggest buyers were Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, but also include Egypt and Libya. Increasingly, the Communist government of North Korea continues to rely upon missile exports for its single largest source of currency. Sales have been estimated at around $500 million since the mid-80s. (Article, Link) 

» World Tribune on NK missile sales

» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Proliferation

» Missile details: Scud B variant, Sergeant, Shahab 3

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