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Taiwan: 800 Chinese Missiles Targeting Island by 2006

Taiwanese Defense Minister Lee Jye said today that their Communist neighbor to the North is likely to have a staggering 800 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan before the end of 2006. He noted, while speaking to a defense committee about a requested military budget, that China already has 600 short range missiles mostly within range of the small island nation.
        Lee is quoted as saying that “The number of Dong Feng-11 and Dong Feng-15 ballistic missiles is expected to rise to 800 before the end of 2006.” The DF-11 is also know as the CSS-7; the DF-15 as the CSS-6.
        Lee’s estimate is actually less than that put forward by Taiwanese vice president Annette Lu, who recently said that China’s SRBMs targeting Taiwan would reach 800 by 2005.
        Lee also spoke of some 200 additional cruise missiles which China may fire during a potential attack, which he characterized as consisting of five waves, lasting a total of ten hours.
        “Given (Taiwan’s) missile defensive capabilities, we are hardly able to cope with the threat.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Taiwan

» Missile details: CSS-6, CSS-7 Mod 2, CSS-7

Khamenei Gives 2-Nuke Religious Quota

Geostrategy-Direct cites a U.S. official as saying that the Ayatollah Khamenei has told a gathering of Iran’s senior military and government officials that the production of at least two nuclear weapons is a religious duty. Khamenei is cited as saying that, “We must have two bombs ready to go in January or you are not Muslims.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Nuclear Weapons

Fifth Interceptor Installed at Ft. Greely, Alaska

On September 25, the missile defense agency installed the fifth of six interceptors expected to be deployed this year at the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) site, at Fort Greely, Alaska. One more is yet to be installed at Greely, and two will be installed at Vandenberg Air Force Base, later this year. (Article, Link) 

» Missile system details for: Fort Greely, Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD)

Superpower Proliferation to Iran: Seven Chinese Companies Sanctioned; Three from Former Soviet Union

The State Department imposed sanctions on fourteen firms or individuals today for illicit proliferation, seven of which were on Chinese companies. The Chinese companies were sanctioned for the proliferation of unconventional weapons and missile technology to Iran.
        In addition, one Belarusian, Russian, and Ukrainian companies were also sanctioned, as well as one from North Korea. Each of these entities was charged with selling materials to Iran.
        State Department spokesman Richard Boucher commented on the Chinese companies that “There was credible evidence that these entities had transferred one of several categories of items to Iran” since January 1999. “That would be equipment listed on multilateral export lists, items that have a potential of making a contribution to weapons of mass destruction or cruise or ballistic missiles.” (More »»») 

» VOA: Fourteen firms or individuals sanctioned

» Sep. 29, 2004: 100 tons of S. Korean dual-use sodium cyanide reached N. Korea by way of China

» More stories on: China, Iran, North Korea, Proliferation, Russia

Fourth Interceptor Now in Place

On Wednesday, September 22, the Missile Defense Agency put in place the fourth of six Ground-based Midcourse Defense missile interceptors scheduled to be installed this year. The other two are expected sometime in October. The third interceptor was emplaced only a few days before, on September 18. (Article, Link) 

» MDA press release

» More stories on: Deployment, Land-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD)

Russia Launches “New Generation” Kosmos Satellite

Russia today launched a Cosmos-2410 satellite characterized as a “new generation” of Russia’s many such systems. It will likely be used for early warning ballistic missile detection. It was launched from Russia’s Plesetsk launch site. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Detection and Tracking

Russia Tests Bulava (SS-N-30) Sea-Launched Missile

As expected, Russia today test launched its new Bulava submarine launched intercontinental ballistic missile, according to the Interfax news agency. A Russian nuclear submarine, the Dmitry Donskoy, fired the Bulava missile from the White Sea.
        The test coincides with Russia’s launch of two Kosmos military satellites today, as reported by Itar-Tass, which are used to monitor ballistic missile launches.
        Interfax initially reported that the missile traveled to its intended target successfully. Another report said the test consisted of only a “pop-up,” a test of the release mechanism which ejects the missile from the submarine, and involved no actual firing of the missile’s engine.
        Update: The latter report is confirmed by another report by Interfax, which quoted Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov:

The Bulava system was tested under water last week, Ivanov said. “The tests were successful,” he said. The minister said they used a real-size mock-up of the missile for tests. It was fired from the submerged Dmitriy Donskoy submarine. “The mock-up was delivered to a height where the cruise engine starts working,” Ivanov said. The tests showed that the missile system could be fired from submerged submarines, the minister said.

 (Article, Link) 

» Sep. 23, 2004: Defense News on Russian satellite launches

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-NX-30

U.S. Sanctions Chinese Firm Proliferating WMD Technology

The U.S. State Department has ordered sanctions on the Chinese state-owned company, Xinshidai, for proliferating material and technical expertise useful to produce weapons of mass destruction. A U.S. official is quoted as saying that Xinshidai “provided material assistance to a country for programs capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction,” but did not name the country to which they sold such materials.
        On August 23, The Washington Times reported transfer of missile technology from China to Iran.
        Such reports only confirm that the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction to so-called “rogue regimes” is a problem which must be seen within the bigger picture of superpower politics. Russia and China indisputably remain the real sources of such proliferation, and the primary, strategic, threats to the United States. (Article, Link) 

» Aug. 23: China selling missile technology to Iran

» More stories on: China, Iran, Proliferation

Russia to Test Another SLBM Next Week

Russia is planning to test yet another sea launched ballistic missile in the coming week, reports the Interfax news agency. The Dmitriy Donskoy nuclear submarine in the Russian Northern Fleet is expected to test launch the advanced Bulava ICBM from the White Sea. The Bulava or SS-NX-30 is the submarine-launched version of Russia’s Topol-M missile, of which there are both mobile and silo-launched versions. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-NX-30

Iran Parades Ballistic Missiles

Iran paraded its Shahab-3 and other missiles today, draped by a number of anti-American slogans and banners. The banner comments included “crush America,” “wipe Israel off the map,” and “We will crush America under our feet.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran

» Missile details: Shahab-3

Flight Testing of Topol-M Almost Complete

The Russian state news agency Itar Tass reports that flight tests for the new and advanced Topol-M ICBM are nearing completion. The first deputy director and first deputy designer-general of the Moscow Institute for Thermotechnology, Aleksandr Dorofeyev, is cited as saying that, “A range of ground-based tests of the missile have been completed. All that remains to do this year is to carry out the final flight test.
        Dorofeyev also commented on the testing progress for the sea-launched Bulava (SS-N-X-30), saying that all is going to plan. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-27, SS-NX-30

Iran Tests “Strategic,” Medium, and Short-Range Missiles

Iran announced that it tested a missile with a “strategic” range on September 19th. The test which was witnessed by the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, included a version of the Shahab-3 missile capable of carrying a one ton nuclear warhead. The Shahab-3 had been previously tested on August 11. The Israeli Haaretz newspaper has recently stated that the upgraded version of the Shahab-3 had a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,280 miles), much more than the previously estimates of 1,300 to 1,700 kilometers. In addition, unidentified short- and medium-range missiles were also said to have been test launched. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Shahab-3

Iran to Use Missile to Launch Satellite by March; Plan Parallels North Korean 1998 Attempt

Iran is reportedly planning to use the improved version of its Shahab-3 missile to launch a small satellite into orbit, according to a defense industry source quoted by Reuters. The missile would reportedly carry a 20 kg experimental satellite to an orbit of 250 km above the earth. “It is just an experimental satellite which will send a simple signal,” the source said of the project, apparently called “Safir-313.” “Safir” is said to mean “emissary.”
        Reuters also reports that Iran announced in January that it meant to be the first Islamic country to go into space and added that it was building a launchpad.
        The significance of such a space launch would be to demonstrate an intercontinental capability for the Islamic nation—which is also an official state sponsor of terrorism. The speed and altitude necessary to have a missile reach orbit is similar to that of what an ICBM would need to travel from one side of the globe to the other. North Korea’s very similar 1998 attempt to put a small satellite into orbit demonstrated such ICBM capability. (Article, Link) 

» Aug. 31: Sixth anniversary of North Korean satellite launch

» More stories on: Iran

» Missile details: Shahab-3

Third Interceptor in Place at Fort Greely, Alaska

The third of six interceptors scheduled to be deployed at Fort Greely, Alaska by the end of this year has now been emplaced in its launch silo on September 15. Two other interceptors will be fielded at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California by the end of the year. (Article, Link) 

» MDA release

» More stories on: Deployment, Land-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Fort Greely, Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD)

THAAD Test Range Opens in Hawaii

The Missile Defense Agency recently opened a new complex at the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Kaua’i, Hawaii for the testing of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system, which will begin in 2006. The project includes a launcher, radar foundations, block house and support facilities. THAAD has been tested at the missile range at White Sands, New Mexico, and the move to Kaua’i is because of “more robust objectives that cannot be accommodated at (White Sands) because of geographical constraints,” according to an MDA press release.
        What this likely means is that the missiles which will be intercepted in their final, descending, phase, will need to be launched from a position farther away in range than the White Sands range alone will permit, without having it fly over populated areas. By testing in Hawaii, the target missile could be launched from the air, another island, or from the sea. (Article, Link) 

» Missile system details for: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)

Minuteman III Test a Success

An unarmed Minuteman III ICBM was test-launched early today from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The missile traveled some 4,200 miles to the Kwajalein missile range, also known as the Ronald Reagan Test Site, in the southern Pacific Ocean. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

» Missile details: Minuteman III

» Missile system details for: Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site (RTS)

Patriot Interceptors to go to Kwangju, South Korea

The 35th Air Defense Artillery Brigade from Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas are now working to relocate to the South Korean city of Gwang-Ju (Kwangju) where they will man the new Patriot missile defense interceptors being deployed there, to defend against attacks from the North. The interceptors are said to be deployed at both the Kwangju Airport an airport in nearby Yosu, and a seaport in Kwangyang. The troops’ redeployment is said to be complete sometime in November. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Deployment

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

Bush and Kerry Sharply Divide on Need to Deploy Missile Defense

The Nature science journal posed fifteen science-related questions to presidential candidates Bush and Kerry, one of which had to do with the subject of missile defense. The two divided, with Bush stating the policy to deploy as soon as technologically feasible, and Kerry saying that he does not support rapid deployment.

NATURE: Some physicists have questioned the capability of missile defense systems being deployed in the United States. Would you increase or decrease spending on missile defense, and would you subject claims made on its behalf to independent scientific review?

BUSH: Early in my administration, I called for the examination of the full range of available technologies and basing modes for missile defenses that could protect the United States, our deployed forces, and our friends and allies. Our policy is to develop and deploy, at the earliest possible date, ballistic missile defenses drawing on the best technologies available. Later this year, the first components of America’s missile defense system will become operational. This will fulfill a pledge I made to the American people more than four years ago. We will develop and deploy the technologies necessary to protect our people.

KERRY: I am not for rapid deployment of missile defense. We should not waste money on deployment at this point. I favor additional research, development and testing. As to the issue of independent scientific review, we have to be careful because of the classified nature of much of the work in question. At the very minimum, we must work hard to restore the credibility of the internal review process. The truth is the Bush administration has shredded its own credibility on this, particularly in its rush to deploy missile defense. We need to restore the credibility of our own review process and we need to subject systems to realistic, operational testing to make sure that they really work.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Second Interceptor Installed at Fort Greely

The Missile Defense Agency installed the second Ground-based interceptor in an underground silo at Fort Greely this past week, according to the September 10 edition of Aerospace Daily and Defense Report. The first interceptor was “emplaced” on July 22, and the third is expected to be installed “probably within the next 10 days or so,” according to an MDA spokesman.
        Update: An MDA press release reports that a total of six interceptors will be emplaced by October, as well as two more at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California by the end of the year. (Link) 

» MDA on second and future emplacements

» More stories on: Deployment, Land-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Fort Greely, Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD)

Russia Launches Two Submarine-Based ICBMs

Hours after Russia announced it would conduct preemptive strikes against terrorist bases, Russia’s Northern Fleet today launched two intercontinental ballistic missiles from submarines.
        According to Itar Tass, the first missile was launched from the Yekaterinburg, and the second, some two hours later, from the Borisoglebsk, both nuclear-powered Delta-IV class ballistic missile submarines. A Russian defense official is cited as saying that “In both cases the launches were carried out from the waters of the Barents Sea in the sector of the Kura training area on Kamchatka. The dummy warheads hit the targets on the training area.” The Kamchatka peninsular missile range is located on Russia’s far eastern, Pacific coast.
        Update: The missile fired from the Yekaterinburg was an R-29M (SS-N-23), that fired from the Borisoglebsk was an R-29R (SS-N-18).
        Update: Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov commented on September 20 that both missiles were carrying three independently targetable warheads, all six of which successfully hit their targets.  (Article, Link) 

» Sep. 8, 2004: Xinhau on SLBM launches

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-N-18 Mod 3, SS-N-23

U.N. Report: Iraq Exported Banned Missile Engines

The new Iraqi authorities have been systematically shipping parts of formerly banned missiles to outside the country, according to a recently released report by the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, or UNMOVIC. The May report, to be presented before the UN today, found that at least 42 engines from banned missiles have been shipped to other countries as scrap, as well as other equipment useful for assembling weapons of mass destruction. Counties to which such materials have been shipped include Jordan and the Netherlands, but the report suggests that much more has been shipped to Asia and other parts of the middle east.
        The missile engines came from SA-2 or Guideline missiles of Soviet origin, but could have been used in other Iraqi ballistic missiles, to exceed the 150km range limitation on Iraqi missiles imposed by the UN. The SA-2 or V-75 was a Soviet surface to air missile—incidentally, similar to those which were deployed with nuclear warheads around Moscow in 1964 as part of its air and missile defense system. The UN report also said that the new Iraqi government has been destroying and cleaning up former missile facilities and chemical weapons production establishments.  (Article, Link) 

» May 28, UNMOVIC Report on Iraqi Missiles

» June 11, 2004: UN Report renews concerns about Iraqi missile proliferation

» More stories on: Iraq, Proliferation

Army Tests MLRS

The U.S. Army has again successfully tested the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (Guided MLRS), at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. The test was said to be to improve accuracy. Versions of the system are said to have been sold to Bahrain, Egypt, Greece, Israel, and South Korea. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

» Missile details: Guided MLRS

Aegis Missile Tracking Ships Now on Patrol in Sea of Japan

The U.S. Navy has begun patrols in the Sea of Japan with its Aegis ships, which are equipped to detect and track ballistic missiles, such as those which could be launched from North Korea and China. Some 15 Aegis destroyers and 3 Aegis cruisers are currently being modified for the missile detection duty. (Article, Link) 

» East Asia Intel on Deployment in the Sea of Japan

» Stars and Stripes on 7th Fleet’s new missile tracking role

» More stories on: Deployment, Sea-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Fisher on North Korean Missile Threat

In their weekly column, Inside the Ring, Bill Gertz and Roman Scarborough cite military specialist Richard D. Fisher on the threat from North Korea’s new long-range missile. The missile is that which was recently reported to have been derived from the Russian SS-N-6, from which North Korea is said to have built both a land- and ship-based version.
        The columnists note that although the CIA had expected the missile to be displayed in a military parade during September 2003, the display did not take place.
        Mr. Fisher also notes that the ship-launch scenario is North Korea’s “simplest option,” whereby they could load the missile onto a merchant ship and launch it against an American coastal city from a comfortable range.
        In the past, officials including Donald Rumsfeld have spoken of an unnamed rogue state having tested a ship-launched missile. The columnists positively identify Iran as the nation who tested a ballistic missile in the late 1990s from a merchant vessel.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Ship-Launched Threat

Patriot Test Successful: Scores Hits Against Ballistic and Cruise Missiles

The Patriot Advanced Capability 3 interceptor today successfully intercepted and destroyed two targets, one a short range ballistic missile, the other a cruise missile, reports a Lockheed Martin press release. The test took place at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.
        The ballistic missile destroyed was actually an older Patriot modified to simulate an enemy missile, called a Patriot-As-A-Target (PAAT). The other target destroyed simultaneously with the Patriot was a MQM-107D cruise missile. The PAC-3 launcher “ripple-fired” two Patriots, shortly after one another, with each going to their respective targets.
        The test was described as the fifth successful “ripple-fire” of the PAC-3 missiles against ballistic missiles, including both flight testing and in combat.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Land-Based Systems, Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

Wisconsin Voters Strongly Support Missile Defense

A recent poll of 500 likely Wisconsin voters shows that they very strongly support for missile defense and its immediate deployment. The poll, conducted by Public Strategies and sponsored by the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, included the following results:

• 74% believe missile defense should be a focus of homeland security efforts and is a public safety issue;
• 67% believe missile defense should be a national top priority;
• 74% will support a presidential candidate who supports missile defense;
• 77% would rather have a partial missile defense system in place than none at all;
• 79% would feel safer with a system in place; and
• 88% believe any missile attack on United States soil would have an adverse impact on Wisconsin’s economy

        Also of interest is that some 52% of those surveyed (falsely) believe that the U.S. already has a missile defense system in place. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy