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News Archives for July, 2004

U.S., Denmark to Sign Agreement to Upgrade Greenland Radars

July 30, 2004 :: Washington Times :: News
Secretary of State Powell will ink an agreement with Denmark on August 6, by which the United States acquires the ability to upgrade its Thule missile detection radars based in Greenland. The agreement was approved by the Danish parliament earlier this year. The Thule air base provides a location to track missile launches from such locations as Iran. It would likely be useful for any missile defense interceptors based in Europe, a plan slated for 2006. (Article, Link) 

Arrow Interceptor Test Successful: Scud Destroyed

July 29, 2004 :: Ha'aretz :: News
The Arrow missile defense system, jointly developed by Israel and the United States, successfully intercepted an incoming Scud missile. Both missiles were fired from locations near Los Angeles, and the interception took place over the Pacific Ocean.
        The test, described as both “realistic” and “crucial,” has been planned for two years. It marks the seventh test of the full Arrow system and the twelfth test of the Arrow interceptor. The Scud was launched from a U.S. Naval Air Warfare Center at Point Magu near Los Angeles. The Arrow system’s radar, called Green Pine, directed the interceptor to its target. Although an earlier report from the Indian Express said that the U.S. Defense Department refused to say where the Scud came from, Haaretz today claimed that the Scud was confiscated from Iraq. In the previous test, in December 2003, the Arrow intercepted a Black Sparrow missile, also produced by Israel.
        The Arrow has been operational in Israel since 2000, and two batteries of the missiles are currently deployed, at Ein Shemer and Palmahim. A number of other countries, such as India, are considering purchasing one or more of various competing missile defense systems, including the Arrow, the American Patriot PAC-3, and the Russian S-300 and S-400.
        Originally designed to protect against Iraqi Scuds and Al Hussein missiles, the future of the Arrow for Israel will likely be to defend against potential attacks by Iran’s Shahab-3. Iran on Monday threatened to wipe Israel “off the map” if either Israel or the United States attempted to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. (Article, Link) 

Naval Version of PAC-3 Under Consideration

July 29, 2004 :: Geostrategy-Direct :: News
A Naval version of the PAC-3 missile defense system is currently under consideration, with a study being done by the Pentagon of its feasibility. Such an interceptor would be capable of being mounted on Aegis ships, and be integrated with the Aegis radar and tracking systems. (Article, Link) 

Hezbollah Terrorists Seeking Missiles From Syria

July 29, 2004 :: BBC Worldwide Monitoring :: News
The Hezbollah terrorist group is reportedly seeking to acquire short range, chemical weapons armed ballistic missiles from Syria, according the head of the Israeli Defense Force intelligence branch, Major General Ze’evi Farkash. The Global Security Newswire cites a story from the Voice of Israel radio program.
        Bloomberg reports that Hezbollah has already acquired missiles with a range of 215 kilometers. (Article, Link) 

Chinese Ambassador Warns Australia About Missile Defense Cooperation

July 29, 2004 :: News
In a visit to Australia, new Chinese ambassador Fu Ying warned the country about its missile defense ties with the United States. Australia had recently signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States, on July 7, concerning the use of its missile defense radars—of potential use to track both North Korean and Chinese missile launches. Citing mantras about regional strategic stability, and that missile defenses by themselves would not stem the flow of weapons of mass destruction, the ambassador’s statements illustrate China’s opposition to American defenses, which it worries will impede its own ambitions for Pacific dominance. (Article, Link) 

Russian Missile Defenses to be Improved Over Next Three Years

July 28, 2004 :: Itar-Tass :: News
The Commander of the Russian Space Troops, Lieutenant-General Vladimir Popovkin, reports that Russia’s missile defenses are continuing to improve, due in part to a new generation of missile detecting radars, reports the Russian news service, Itar-Tass.
        In the next two to three years, the Russian missile early warning system will receive new, “highly finished” radars. The new radars, said to utilize new technologies, are set to be tested in 2005.
        Commander Popovkin described Russia’s missile defense capabilities as improving and growing, and said that “the Space Troops have a tremendous amount of work still to be carried out.”  (Article, Link) 

Kaplan on the Merits of Vulnerability, Mutually Assured Destruction

July 28, 2004 :: News
Writing for the Slate online magazine, Fred Kaplan comments on the recent installment of the first missile defense interceptor in Alaska, and argues that, despite common sense to the contrary, some defense is indeed worse than none. The subheading to Kaplan’s article is the following: “What’s the optimal number of anti-missile missiles? None.”
        Such arguments for the merits of vulnerability enjoyed some measure of plausibility during the Cold War, when only the Soviet Union and China had nuclear armed ICBMs. Kaplan’s updating of the arguments, however, show their absurdity, as he argues that the deployment will only “provoke” North Korea into producing more nuclear weapons and more long range missiles. The Federation of American Scientists, long known for their opposition to all things missile defense, praises Kaplan’s argument by name.
        What these arguments ignore, however, is that North Korea and Iran will continue their best efforts regardless of whether or not the United States does anything about it. If North Korea should respond to the initial deployment of ten missile interceptors with, say, 12 long range missiles, the United States should deploy an additional 10. This is an arms race we can win, and we should not be afraid to do so. (Article, Link) 

Athens Deploys Patriot Missile Defenses for Olympics

July 28, 2004 :: BBC :: News
In preparation for the August Olympics, Greece has deployed dozens of the American Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) air and missile defense system at three sites around Athens, as well as additional interceptors near the more northern city of Thessaloniki and on the island of Skyros in the Aegean Sea. Lieutenant Colonel Agamemnon Koliakos is quoted as saying that the Patriots form “an anti-missile umbrella formed in the Athens region for the protection of the Olympic Games.” The Patriots will remain on alert until October 5. (Article, Link) 

Second Interceptor in Ground by Mid-August

July 27, 2004 :: News
According to InsideDefense.com, the second of six planned interceptors for Fort Greely, Alaska could be installed by mid-August. Additional interceptors would likely be installed in October. (Link) 

Hackett on MDA’s Priorities

July 27, 2004 :: Washington Times :: Analysis
Writing for the Washington Times, James T. Hackett notes the political challenges facing the new head of the Missile Defense Agency, General Trey Obering, who will preside over the initial deployment of America’s missile defense system this fall. Hackett also praises the Congress for trimming funding for the costly and problematic Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI). (Article, Link) 

China Military Exercise May Have Included Test of DF-31, Other Missiles

July 27, 2004 :: News
Two weeks ago, several reports indicated that China that it would be testing three missiles during its large military exercises preparing for an assault against Taiwan. The missiles included the DF-31 ICBM, as well as the DF-21 and the JL-2. Two Chinese news services, People’s Daily and Xinhau noted on July 22 that China had notified Russia of its intent to conduct the test during its military exercise, which have since taken place, on July 26. A subsequent report by East Asia Intel suggested that the test would not include the DF-21, since that test had apparently already taken place earlier this year.
        Since there has been little media coverage of China’s exercises, it remains unclear if the missile tests were carried out as planned.  (Link) 

U.S. Sanctions Russian Company’s For Missile Tech Proliferation

July 23, 2004 :: News
On July 15, the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Nonproliferation enacted sanctions against the Russian Altai research and production complex for actions constituting proliferation of missile and other technologies.
        The Russian Interfax news agency cites Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Kislyak that the Russian Foreign Ministry “regrets” the U.S. sanctions, but points out that the actions in question were no violation of Russian law or its own understanding of its nonproliferation obligations.
        We too “regret” the sanctions—not for their imposition but for their need to be imposed. We should regret, but nevertheless admit, that Russia and China are both primary sources of missile and nuclear proliferation. (Article, Link) 

U.S. Tests Minuteman III from Vandenberg AFB

July 23, 2004 :: News
A Minuteman III missile was launched early this morning from Vandenberg Air Force Base, the third test flight of an American ICBM from that base in a month. The missile traveled some 4,800 miles and delivered its dummy warhead to the Ronald Reagan missile range in the Kwajalein atoll. (Article, Link) 

EMP Commission Report Points to Need for Missile Defense

July 22, 2004 :: Reuters :: News
Although overshadowed by the 9-11 report, another report was also today delivered to Congress. The Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack delivered the executive summary of their report to a hearing of the House Armed Services Committee. An electromagnetic pulse results from a nuclear explosion high in the atmosphere, and involves the disruption of nearly every form of electrical system, upon which the United States is so heavily dependent.
        Mandated by law, the Commission was asked to assess the threat from “all potentially hostile states or non-state actors that have or could acquire nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles enabling them to perform a high-altitude EMP attack against the United States within the next 15 years.” They concluded that such an attack “has the potential to hold our society at risk and might result in defeat of our military forces.”
        Of course, to assess an EMP threat from a “potentially hostile state or non state actor” implicitly admits that both rogue states and terrorists could well acquire a ballistic missile and a nuclear warhead and deliver them to the continental United States. The question of whether the nuclear armed missile would result in a low or high (EMP producing) altitude nuclear explosion—is quite secondary to whether the United States will remain vulnerable to terrorists or a rogue state’s ability to deliver the warhead by missile in the first place.  (More »»») 

First Ground Based Interceptor Lowered Into Alaska Silo

July 22, 2004 :: Department of Defense :: News
The first Ground-Based Interceptor was today lowered into a silo at Fort Greely, Alaska, one of many which will soon form the first line of defense against long range ballistic missiles from countries such as North Korea. Five additional interceptors will be deployed in Alaska by the end of September, for a total of six. An additional ten are scheduled to be added to Fort Greely by the end of 2005, as well as an additional four at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, for a total of twenty. The interceptors form a major part of the Ground Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system.
        The first interceptor uses an Orbital booster, and will be armed with the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle, or EKV. Although placed inside the silo, it is not yet operational. (Article, Link) 

Libya Had Chinese Nuclear Warhead Design, Materials to Build

July 22, 2004 :: Inside the Ring (Washington Times) :: News
U.S. Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham has stated that Libya had in its possession not only the blueprints for a Chinese nuclear warhead, but all the components to produce it, reports Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough. The design had apparently come through the A. Q. Khan Pakistani proliferation network, but Secretary Abraham was unwilling to comment as to its source before then: “As to how things got to who, I can’t tell you the chain,” he said. He also noted that in terms of completing a nuclear warhead, they had both the design and materials: “It would take them time to get it done, but they definitely did not lack for the ingredients.
        The Chinese, despite their protests and nominal opposition to nuclear and missile proliferation, are in fact very much behind the proliferation of both. States such as Pakistan and North Korea are, indeed, proxy states in such proliferation. One may speculate that Pakistan would not have delivered the Chinese blueprint to Libya if China did not wish it to do so.  (Article, Link) 

Eighty Three Percent of Florida Voters Favor Missile Defense

July 22, 2004 :: Yahoo News :: News
An overwhelming majority, 83%, of likely Florida voters are in favor of ballistic missile defense, notes a recent statewide poll sponsored by the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. In addition, some 66% of the 600 people polled believe that a missile defense system should be deployed now; 74% believe the cost of missile defense is money well spent; and 66% would be more likely to vote for a candidate who strongly supports missile defense.
        Such considerations may well be relevant to the upcoming presidential elections.  (Article, Link) 

Peacekeeper Missile Test Launched

July 21, 2004 :: The Lompoc Record :: News
The United States today test launched an unarmed Peacekeeper (also called the “MX”) missile, the second to last test scheduled for the program. The routine Peacekeeper test took place from Vandenberg Air Force Base, and was directed to the Kwajalein Missile Range in the Pacific Ocean, some 4,800 miles distant. The test is said to have included the delivery of eight unarmed warheads to the missile range. (Article, Link) 

China, U.S. in Strategic Competition in Space

July 21, 2004 :: Defense News :: News
The United States and China have competing designs for space, notes a recent story carried by Defense News. The story references a yet to be released U.S. National Security Space Policy document, which outlines China’s ambitions and possible U.S. responses.
        That China is indeed a rising strategic competitor is a fact which must be faced, rather than denied or ignored.
        One quote contained in the story is especially worth noting, by Joan Johnson-Freese, the chairwoman of National Security Decision Making at the Naval War College:

On September 10, 2001, what was the No.1 issue?…China was seen as a strategic competitor. Though there has been some cooperation with China on the war on terror and in North Korea, there is an underlying fear that China is the next near-competitor.

But what was true about China on September 10 is also true today. Lest the war on terrorism be waged in the absence of strategic clarity, such strategic competition must not be forgotten. The war on terrorism should not serve as a distraction from the strategic concerns of Russia, China, and other rogue regimes. (Article, Link) 

Bendersky: “Keep a Watchful Eye on Russia’s Military Technology”

July 21, 2004 :: Analysis
Writing for the “Power and Interest News Report,” Yevgeny Bendersky denies the typical characterization of the Russian military as backward and ill equipped, and points out that in fact,

even in the current dire circumstances, Russia never stopped being a powerful entity that produced state-of-the-art military technologies — a trend that continued from its inception as a modern state. While its army, navy and air force are in dangerously derelict conditions, every part of the formula for Russia’s resurgence as a military powerhouse is still in place. In spite of financial and economic difficulties, Russia still produces state-of-the-art military technologies that continue to impress the world.
         Bendersky notes that Russia’s current state of the art systems include their S-300, and especially their S-400 air and missile defense systems, believed to be superior to their American counterparts. (Article, Link) 

China Sees U.S. as “Strategic Target,” Believes Regional Taiwan War “Inevitable”

July 21, 2004 :: East Asia Intel :: News
The July 15 edition of the Hong Kong-based, newspaper Wen Wei Po Communist Chinese party newspaper refers to the United States as a “strategic target,” and that a regional conflict over Taiwan before 2020 is “inevitable,” reports East-Asia-Intel.com. In addition, a report from a Beijing research institute is quoted as saying that, “The Taiwan authorities that promote ‘Taiwan independence’ are our war target, while the United States is our strategic target.” (Article, Link) 

PM: Pakistan Purchased North Korean Missile Technology

July 18, 2004 :: News
Pakistan’s former prime minister Benazir Bhutto acknowledges that that country purchased missile technology from North Korea, reports the Asahi Shimbun newspaper. The exchange apparently too place after a visit to North Korea in December 1993. Bhutto noted the North Korea connection, but denied that Pakistan aided North Korea with nuclear technology. (Article, Link) 

MEADS Development to Begin

July 16, 2004 :: NTI :: News
The United States, Germany, and Italy will soon begin full development of the Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) system, the successor to the Patriot program, according to the July 15 edition of Defense Today.
        Negotiations to produce a memorandum of understanding are expected to be completed this week, with contracts to produce the missile defense system by the end of the year.  (Article, Link) 

New Submarine Part of Chinese Buildup

July 16, 2004 :: Washington Times :: News
China has apparently succeeded in producing a completely new form of attack submarine, unbeknownst to U.S. intelligence, reports Bill Gertz in the Washington Times. U.S. officials were apparently surprised when a picture of the new submarine, now designated Yuan-class, appeared several weeks ago, in China’s Wuhan shipyard. Gertz quotes officials speculating that it is diesel rather than nuclear powered, and that it is part of a naval buildup designed for a possible conflict over Taiwan.
        Richard Fisher of the Center for Security Policy is quoted as saying that, “One has to marvel at the enormity of the investment by the People’s Liberation Army in submarines”—said to be their best weapon against U.S. carriers. China already has some 57 submarines deployed. (Article, Link) 

Yemen Considering Purchase of Russian S-300

July 15, 2004 :: Middle East Newsline :: News
Yemenese President Ali Abdullah Saleh discussed the purchase of Russian arms for his country, while visiting Russian President Putin in Moscow. The possible purchase reportedly includes aircraft and the Russian S-300 air and missile defense system, according to a report by Middle East Newsline. Whether the S-300 system in question is the S-300P or S-300V was not indicated. Although sometimes believed to be limited to air defense, the capability of the S-300 for missile defense purposes is reiterated by the sources quoted. (Article, Link) 

Aegis Ships to Begin Monitoring North Korean Missiles in September

July 15, 2004 :: Bloomberg :: News
Six Aegis destroyers are being equipped to use their radars to track potential missile launches by North Korea, and will begin patrolling the Sea of Japan in September, roughly the same time that the first interceptors of the ground based missile defense system will become operational.
        In the event of a missile launch, the ships’ radar would track the missile, and relay its information to a central location in Colorado, and ultimately to the missile interceptors themselves, which will be deployed in California and Alaska. (Article, Link) 

U.S. in Missile Defense Talks with Czechs, Poles

July 13, 2004 :: London Guardian :: News
The United States continues talks with both Poland and the Czech Republic, for the countries to possibly host a European-based group of missile defense interceptors and radars, reports the London Guardian. The base could be wholly extraterritorial, and some 100km square. Similar talks have been underway with Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania, but are not believed to be as developed. The Guardian notes that Russia would likely be opposed to having missile defense interceptors so near its own territory, thus potentially weakening its offensive nuclear arsenal against the United States. The interceptors would be quite useful, however, against missile strikes from Iran against either the United States or Europe itself.
        A European base would likely station the same Ground Based Interceptors to be deployed in Alaska and California in the coming months.  (Article, Link) 

Chinese Missile Tests, Wargames, to Intimidate Taiwan

July 13, 2004 :: Reuters :: News
China plans to conduct a large military exercise later this month to demonstrate its military and especially air superiority to neighboring Taiwan. The exercise to take place at Dongshan island, 150 miles from Taiwan, is said to include several ballistic missile tests as well, including the medium range DF-21 (CSS-5), the mobile, long range DF-31 (CSS-9) ICBM, and the submarine launched version of the DF-31, the JL-2 (CSS-NX-5), reports the Russian Itar-Tass news agency. One year ago, in June 2003, Bill Gertz reported that China planned to test the same three missiles in the coming month.
        It is worth noting that Beijing’s test will coincide with the visit to China by National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. Since China would have no need to use an ICBM against such a near target as Taiwan, one must suppose that the launch of two ICBMs, the DF-31 and JL-2, could be a signal to the United States that it should not interfere with a Chinese attack on the island.
        Itar-Tass claims that the test will be of a new version of the DF-31, with an increased range and multiple warhead capability. The two land-based missiles will reportedly be fired from the Wuzhai testing ground in Shanxi Province, and will be directed at China’s northeast, the Lop Nur test range. A Chinese government report released July 4 describes the test as both the “largest scale exercise this year,” and that it is meant to serve a “substantial warning” to Taiwan. (Article, Link) 

Russia Preparing for Another SS-19 Test

July 13, 2004 :: Interfax :: News
Russia will test another SS-19 (RS-18) ICBM in mid-August, the Russian Defense told the Russian Interfax news agency. The test is one in a series to extend the life of the SS-19 missile. Interfax notes that the SS-19 is currently on combat duty at the Tatishchevo and Kozelsk units of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces. (Article, Link) 

Guided MLRS Rockets Successfully Tested

July 13, 2004 :: Lockheed Martin :: News
Lockheed Martin reports the second successful flight test of the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rocket at White Sands Missile Range, N.M., taking place on June 30.
        The GMLRS rocket has a high explosive warhead of 180 pounds, and a range of about 70 kilometers. (Article, Link) 

India Budget Proposal Increases Ballistic Missile Funding

July 13, 2004 :: Global Security Newswire :: News
A proposed defense budget for India includes increased funding for their ballistic missile programs, reports the Global Security Newswire, citing the New Delhi Pioneer newspaper. The funding levels for defense would, if accepted, increase by 27% overall, to 16.8 billion, with some of the increase going to the Agni ballistic missile program. (Article, Link) 

Australia, United States, Sign 25 Year Missile Defense Pact

July 7, 2004 :: Department of Defense :: News
The United States and Australia today signed in Washington a memorandum of understanding which describes Australia’s future cooperation in missile defense.
        Areas of cooperation include technological transfer, and the use of long range “over the horizon” land-based radars in Australia, such as the DUNDEE project most recently tested in April, as well as the giving to Australia ship-based radars and interception capabilities, such as the Aegis system.  (More »»») 

China Tests S-300 Missile Defense Interceptor

July 7, 2004 :: East Asia Intel :: News
China recently tested an interceptor for its S-300P (SA-10 “Grumble”) air and missile defense system, notes the PLA Daily. A number of the S-300 systems, perhaps as many as 120, were sold to China by Russia, but China is also developing its own versions, the HQ-10 or HQ-15, as well as more advanced missile interceptors which incorporate technology acquired from the American Patriot system, the HQ-9 and the FT-2000. (Article, Link) 

India Tests Agni Missile

July 4, 2004 :: News
India today successfully tested what Prime Minister Manmohan Singh termed its “Agni A-1” ballistic missile, in what is likely a response to Pakistan’s Hatf missile tests last month, and the promise of other “important” tests in coming months.
        The “Agni A-1” missile, described as having a 700-900 km range, is however probably the same missile as what is also termed the Agni-SR. (The SR stands for Short Range, as it has a lesser range but enhanced maneuverability and reentry technology, than the Agni-1 MRBM from which it was derived.) The Agni-SR is capable of being armed with a 20 kiloton nuclear warhead, and is highly accurate.
        The only discrepancy between the comments by Indian “defense sources” about today’s missile test and what was previously known of the Agni-SR, is that the missile launched today is described as having a length of 12 meters, whereas the Agni-SR was previously reported as having a length of 14.8 meters. The same sources, cited by the PTI news agency in New Delhi, added that the missile is powered by a single-stage solid- fuel rocket, and that the missile travels at up to 2.5 km per second. They also confirmed that the so-called “Agni A-1”—like the Agni-SR—had had increased maneuverability and reentry capabilities, as compared to the original Agni missile, from which the Agni SR, Agni 2, and Agni 3 were each derived.
        Sunday’s test launch took place from a mobile launcher located at the Integrated Test Range on Wheeler’s Island, in the Bay of Bengal, off India’s Orissa coast. This was reportedly the third test of the missile, with previous tests on January 25, 2002, and January 9, 2003, from the same launch site.  (Article, Link) 

Belarus Displays S-300 Defenses, SS-21 Missiles

July 3, 2004 :: BBC Worldwide Monitoring :: News
To commemorate its own day of independence, Belarus held a military parade in the city of Minsk. The parade included, among other things, the Tochka (SS-21, or “Scarab”) missile system, and the S-300 air and missile defense systems, reports BBC Monitoring, citing a Belarusian television broadcast. (Article, Link) 

Taiwan: Send BMD Faster

July 2, 2004 :: ABC News :: News
Taiwanese Defense Minister Lee Jye has asked the United States to more quickly deliver the multibillion dollar arms package to the small island, including especially the missile defense systems. Lee commented that China’s increased military deployment is what is prompting him to ask for an accelerated delivery.
        As noted before on Missilethreat.com, the slow timetable (2019) slated for the delivery of the PAC-3 missile defenses is no match for China’s large arsenal of over 500 short range missiles already deployed near Taiwan, a collection which it continues to increase at a current rate of 75 missiles per year.  (Article, Link) 

Retiring MDA Head: North Korean Missiles Improved “Significantly”

July 1, 2004 :: Bloomberg :: News
Air Force Lieutenant General Ronald Kadish, retiring as head of the Missile Defense Agency this week, has now commented that North Korea has “significantly” improved its long and short-range missiles, despite a 1999 moratorium on actual testing. The developments are not completely gradual; Kadish noted that North Korea’s missile development has “progressed significantly over the last six months,” and added that “Events have occurred that show us that they are working toward having a ballistic missile capability of all ranges across a broad front.”
        General Kadish is set to retire from the MDA in September. (Article, Link) 

Pakistan: No Slowdown, More Missile Tests

July 1, 2004 :: Spacewar.com :: News
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said to reporters that despite U.S. pressure, which he termed a “joke,” his country would not slow its nuclear and missile programs, and planned to launch another missile within the next two months, which will be an “extremely important substantive test.” Moreover, Musharraf added, “We are taking our nuclear program forward…We will continue to manufacture nuclear (capable) missiles and it will be a madman who accuses me of rolling back the nuclear missile program.” (Article, Link) 

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