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India to Test Agni-3 in 2005

India will test launch its Agni-3 intermediate-range ballistic missile before the end of 2005, reports Jane’s Defence Weekly. The Agni-3 is a three-stage, surface-based, solid- and liquid-propellant ballistic missile. Its range is believed to be approximately 5,000 km (3,107 miles), which would make it capable of striking Beijing. The article quotes a Dr. M. Natarajan, head of the India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), as saying that, “Development of Agni-3 is on schedule. It will fly by the end of the year.” According to the Jane’s report, the technical problems previously associated with the Agni-3 missile have been resolved. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: India

» Missile details: Agni-3

Russia Dismantling Railway Missile System

Interfax reports that Russia has dismantled one railway-based missile system at Kostroma, and has started dismantling another at Bryansk. Each system comprises three launchers of SS-24 Scalpel (RT-23U Molodets) missiles, as well as a command post and maintenance cars. Nikolay Solovtsov, commander of the Strategic Missile Troops, has previously stated that Russia will dismantle all railway-based missile launchers before 2006. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-4

Iran Tests Solid-Fuel Missile Engine

In what constitutes a major development for its missile program, Iran has reported success in its test of a solid-fueled ballistic missile engine which is probably designed for a newer version of the Shahab missile family. The range of the solid fuel motor is purported to exceed the stated 2,000 km range of the existing, but gradually upgraded, Shahab-3. Such a reach could give Iran the capability to target all of Israel, Turkey, much of India, parts of Germany and China, and U.S. forces stationed in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Persian Gulf. According to Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani, the test was “100 percent successful.”
        If the Iranian claims are accurate, the test represents a significant breakthrough for Iranian missile technology. Solid fuel offers abundant advantages over liquid fuel. It provides its missiles with greater accuracy, faster mobility, quicker deployment, and a longer shelf life. Iran seems likely to arm these missiles with nuclear warheads. Al-Jazeera quoted one Western diplomat as noting, “Why develop a Rolls Royce to only deliver a pizza?” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Shahab-6, Small ICBM, SS-1A

New Russian Early-Warning Radar

Itar-Tass reports that the Russian Space Troops plan to test a new early-warning radar station near St. Petersburg in 2005. The news agency quotes Col-Gen. Vladimir Popovkin, commander-in-chief of the Space Troops, as stating that “[Russia’s] space reconnaissance facilities are nearly at the end of their useful life and that is why over the next few years we will be replacing them …” The new-generation EWR is described as smaller, lighter, and requiring minimal on-site preparation. Popovkin adds that the new radar will allow the Space Troops to cover “all likely avenues of missile approach.”
        Pavel Podvig analyzes the announcement of Russia’s new-generation early-warning radar, at RussianForces.org. Podvig notes that the new radar’s smaller size, minimal on-site preparation, and lower cost seem “very attractive,” but he remains skeptical of the system’s overall effectiveness. He points out that EWRs typically require “a lot of power and a big antenna,” and questions whether smaller new-generation EWRs can match the power and range of older and larger systems like the Russia’s Daryal and Dnepr radars. (Article, Link) 

» Podvig on new Russian radar

» More stories on: Russia, Detection and Tracking

Podvig: Russia Cannot Compete in a Space Arms Race

Pavel Podvig, author of Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, argues that Russia has lost the ability to compete with the U.S. in space. On RussianForces.org, he refers to the remarks of a low-level Russian diplomat at a recent conference in Virginia, who was quoted by the Financial Times as saying, “Russia could respond with force if the US put a ‘combat weapon’ into space.” Podvig disagrees: “Russian diplomats like to think they live in the world where this rhetoric works … The reality is quite different.” He argues the Russian military space program “has lost its capability to carry out serious development projects in military space and is very unlikely to recover it.”
        Opponents of U.S. space-based military assets often warn about the dangers of a space arms race between the U.S. and Russia. According to this argument, the “weaponization of space” would lead to new forms of brinkmanship and perhaps even military conflict. Yet if Podvig is correct and Russia has truly lost the ability to compete with the U.S. in space, then the U.S. need not worry about going head to head with the Russians, if such a race even occurs. Either the U.S. will win the space arms race, or the Russians will decline to challenge the U.S. due to their current lack of resources, technology, and expertise.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Space-Based Systems

Russia Tests Kh-555 Cruise Missile

Interfax reports that Russia has successfully tested the air-launched, precision-guided, long-range Kh-555 cruise missile. According to Lt. Gen. Aleksandr Rakhmanov, deputy chief of the Russian armed forces’ arms procurement directorate, the missile hit a target at a range of 2,000 km. The Kh-555 is reported to be the conventional version of the nuclear-armed Kh-55/AS-15, and is apparently part of Russia’s plan to convert strategic bombers to handle conventional missions. Sources indicate that the Kh-555 was first tested in 1999, and again in June 2004. (Article, Link) 

» Ukraine said to have exported Kh-55, Kh-55M

» June 29, 2004: Russia Test Fires Kh-55

» Podvig on today’s test of Kh-555

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

Hezbollah: All of Northern Israel in Rocket Range

Ha’aretz reports that the militant Islamic terrorist organization Hezbollah has 12,000 Katyusha rockets deployed in Lebanon capable of striking all of northern Israel. On May 24, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah stated unequivocally: “Any hand that reaches out to our weapons is an Israeli hand that will be cut off.”
        For reasons like these, the U.S. and Israel have been collaborating on such defensive systems as the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL), designed to track and destroy incoming rockets with a high-energy laser beam. Some recent reports have suggested, however, that the U.S. may be withdrawing funding from THEL (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Israel, Terrorism

» Missile system details for: Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)

Hackett: MDA Needs to Keep Eye on Goal

James T. Hackett of The Washington Times reports that U.S. senators have urged the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to keep its eye on the goal: near-term deployment. In recent statements, Senators Ted Stevens (R-AK), Daniel Inouye (D-HI), and Jon Kyl (R-AZ) have emphasized that the MDA should spend its limited funds on deploying ground-based midcourse interceptors and ship-based missile defenses, rather than on duplicative or long-term projects such as the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI). Many proponents of missile defense believe that the KEI project diverts attention and resources from more promising programs. The MDA has earmarked $5 billion for the KEI over the next four years.
        Members of Congress are correct to urge the MDA to remain focused on the primary goal of deploying missile defenses in the near term. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

» Missile system details for: Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)

National Review on the Weaponization of Space

The editors of National Review respond to the increasing attention to the weaponization of space controversy, weighing in on the side of the advantage of such systems.

The debate over such technologies is closely related to the debate over missile defense. Critics of the Air Force’s space aims get especially upset about space-based interceptors, which, unlike ground- and sea-based interceptors, could target a missile during its slow ascent over enemy territory.

…Any notion that space is now a pristine, weapon-free zone is pure fantasy. The irresistible power of our military depends, to a large extent, precisely on its use of space. What is a GPS satellite that guides a precision bomb to its target, if not the component of a weapon system?…In any case, further weaponization of space is probably inevitable…It’s naïve to think that today’s powers won’t compete for control of space in much the same way. Does anyone doubt that China, for example, will have moral scruples about deploying space weapons as it is becomes able to do so?

…Now is the time to channel that advantage toward a benevolent American domination of space. Doing so may not be popular, but it will make us—and the world—safer.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Space-Based Systems

Glick: U.S. Could Suspend Arrow and THEL Collaboration with Israel

Caroline Glick writes in The Jerusalem Post that the U.S. has reportedly suspended its cooperation with Israel on the Arrow and Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) missile defense projects. Ms. Glick references an official source quoted by Middle East Newsline as saying of the pullback from military cooperation, “It’s all about China.”
        Israel is the largest exporter of high-tech weapons to China. The Pentagon fears that China could, among other things, use its Israeli weapons against U.S. forces in a future Taiwan conflict. Glick notes that Israel should stop arming the Chinese or risk damaging its strategic relationship with the U.S. She also notes that by arming China, Israel is actually helping its regional enemies. China of course also exports weapons to Iran and Pakistan. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, China, Israel, Proliferation

» Missile system details for: Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)

Russia to Field New Set of Topol-M

RIA Novosti reports that Russia plans to arm a Strategic Missile Forces regiment in the Ivanovo Region with the mobile version of the SS-27 Topol-M missile system. The intercontinental-range solid-propellant Topol-M is said by RIA Novosti to be capable of avoiding space reconnaissance satellites and AWACS aircraft. In December 2004, the Topol-M underwent its fourth test launch. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-6

Dome Installed on SBX Radar

The Sea-Based X-Band Radar has now completed its major assembly with the addition of the radar’s protective “radome.” The radome weighs 18,000 pounds, stands over 103 feet high, and is 120 feet in diameter. Made entirely of a high-tech synthetic fabric, the radome is supported by air pressure alone and can withstand winds more than 130 miles per hour. The entire SBX sits on a large, converted oil rig.
        The SBX, currently being constructed in Corpus Christi, Texas, will eventually be deployed from Alaska, and will serve as an integrated radar for the ground based midcourse defense system. Although the SBX cannot see past the horizon, it would be used for looking up, to aid interceptors in homing in on missiles in space above the Pacific—that is, those headed from locations such as North Korea toward the United States. (Article, Link) 

» Missile system details for: Sea-Based X-Band Radar (SBX)

Report: North Korea Could Market Frog Missile

North Korea may be planning to offer for export to the Middle East an upgraded—but nevertheless simple—missile which North Korea is believed to have recently tested, on May 1.
        The FROG-7 missile is of Soviet-origin. North Korea is believed to have increased its range and accuracy, possibly tripling its previous range of 70km, according to Geostrategy-Direct. The source of the report of a planned sale, however, is unclear.
        The significance of a FROG missile sale would be relatively minor given North Korea’s willingness to proliferate more advanced systems and technologies.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea, Proliferation

» Missile details: FROG-7B

India Tests Prithvi-1

India today tested the Prithvi-1 missile from its Chandipur-on-Sea integrated test range in the eastern state of Orissa. The Prithvi-1 missile has a range of 150 kilometers, and can deliver both conventional and low-yield nuclear warheads. The Iranian news agency, IRNA, adds that the missile was “mounted on a mobile tatra transporter erector launcher.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: India, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Poseidon C-3

Spring on Weaponization of Space

Baker Spring of the Heritage Foundation publishes remarks delivered at a debate on the subject of the weaponization of space, in which he outlines five attributes of the “make-believe world” of arms controllers who advocate curtailing space-based capabilities. It is a very fine summary of the arguments typically made by those who oppose using space as the next, logical extension of America’s defense.

Space is a place. It is part of the geographic con­stant with which militaries have had to contend from the dawn of civilization. As with any piece of geography, space possesses unique characteristics that can provide distinct advantages to the military that is able to exploit them. Through its persistence and creativity, the Unit­ed States now finds itself in a favorable position rel­ative to other states regarding the use of space for military purposes. Its lead, however, should not be taken for granted. If the United States rests on its laurels and squanders this advantage, it will cer­tainly regret it.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Space-Based Systems

Possible Role for Fighters in Missile Defense

The Missile Defense Agency and the Navy are studying means of defending ships against short range ballistic missiles, which includes a number a new basing options for previously ground-based interceptors such as THAAD and Patriot, reports the May 10 edition of Inside Missile Defense. A working group’s report, “Sea-Based Terminal Ballistic Missile Defense Assessment,” is said to be due in June.
        The plan for a “sea-based terminal defense” considers the possibilities for development and fielding around 2010. Besides arming fighter aircraft with modified PAC-3 or even the longer range THAAD interceptors, “marinized” versions of both could plausibly also be placed on ships, according to various sources cited. The Aegis ship-based defenses would also likely be incorporated into any sea-based defense for ships.
        The aircraft-launched versions would be of use for defense against ballistic or cruise missile attacks against our coast, provided of course the fighters were in the right place at the right time, within range of the missile: “In theory,” a source quoted said, “you could put two THAADs on an F-15.”
        The reports are similar in concept to the jet fighter-based Anti-Satellite Weapons or Boost Phase Interceptors (BPI) discussed in previous years.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Air, Sea-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Boost Phase Interceptor (BPI), Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3), Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)

Dinerman on Space Weapons and Brilliant Pebbles

Taylor Dinerman, writing for The Space Review, notes that while the Bush administration has been making headway on a number of salutary missile defense programs, it has not restarted the space-based defenses, such as the Brilliant Pebbles which had been killed by the Clinton administration. Despite this fact, critics of the administration from the left continue to insinuate that space programs are being pursued. In fact, notes Dinerman, the administration is in a very difficult place:

Curiously, Bush has had to take all the political pain involved in withdrawing from the ABM Treaty and building an operational missile defense system without being willing to go all the way and make that system fully effective, or at least as effective as possible given the limits of today’s technology. On this issue it is striking how much more conservative and bold his father’s administration was.

        The potential for Brilliant Pebbles was its ability to intercept missiles while they were still in their boost phase, when they are most vulnerable. The technology was available in the early 1990s, in fact in the 1980s, and it has only improved since:

Since Brilliant Pebbles (BP) was canceled in 1993, the Department of Defense has made some limited progress on technology that is directly applicable to space-based boost phase systems. More important has been the ongoing improvements in computer processing power and in the ability of uncooked thermal imagers to detect targets. A 2005 model of a Brilliant Pebble would be smaller and have a better electronic brain than the 1993 one. Not only that, but there are now cheaper and more reliable in-space propulsion systems, such as pulsed plasma thrusters, which would keep the BPs in orbit and operation for far longer than the older version.

 (More »»») 

» More stories on: Space-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Brilliant Pebbles

Russian A-135 System to Receive Upgrades

Itar Tass reports that Russia’s missile defenses which protect central Russia will be increased in size and capacity in the coming year. Lieutenant General Sergey Kurushkin, a commander of the Russian Space Troops, told the Russian news agency that “measures to improve a number of components in the A-135 system, which provides antimissile defense for the central region of Russia, will soon be completed.” “Last year tests were completed on the modernized active parts of the system—the interceptor missiles, and the training-combat launch of one of these was successfully carried out at the southern Sary Shagan range,” he is quoted as saying, as well as that Russia has “in prospect the deployment of promising radar equipment in the system for warning of a missile attack, and also the acquisition of new specialized equipment for monitoring space…We are talking about new technology and high-quality features which rival the best foreign models.”
       A-135 is the name for the missile defense system which still surrounds Moscow. The recent test at Sary Shagan to which Kurushkin referred may have been the November 29, 2004 test of the Gazelle interceptor, which was successful.  (Article, Link) 

» Nov. 29, 2004: Russian test of Gazelle interceptor successful

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: System A-135, Gazelle (SH-08/ABM-3)

North Korea Tests Short Range Missile

North Korea on Sunday, May 1, conducted a successful test of a short range missile which traveled some 65 miles (104km) into the Sea of Japan.
        Andrew Card, the White House chief of staff, confirmed the missile launch but played down its military significance: “The North Koreans have tested their missiles before.” As to their motivation, he said, “I think they’re looking to kind of be bullies in the world.” Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, warned on Thursday before the Senate Armed Services Committee that North Korea has the ability to deliver a nuclear-armed long range missile to American territory. The short range missile may have been a land-to-ship missile.
        Despite its moratorium on missile tests—which it recently repudiated—North Korea has intermittently tested short-range missiles off its east coast, including a launching in February 2003, according to the New York Times.
        Update: On May 3, the South Korean JoonAng Daily reports that South Korean military officials report that an analysis of the North’s test reveals upgrades to short range rockets, both in terms of guidance systems and range. “Tracking the trajectory of the missile, it appeared to be a ballistic missile, not a cruise missile such as Silkworm,” said one military official quoted by the paper, adding that the missile appeared to be equipped with a guidance system using an inertial navigation system to increase its accuracy; “If the North Koreans upgraded their FROG-7 rockets to ground-to-ground missiles with ranges of 100 to 200 kilometers (62 to 124 miles), the U.S. military bases to be relocated to Pyeongtaek by 2008 will fall under their range.” An excerpt from JoonAng Daily about the older FROG-7 Soviet missile, from which the South Korean missile tested may be derived:  (More »»») 

» May 2, 2005: Possible failed launch on April 29

» March 3, 2005: North Korea says no longer bound by missile moratorium

» May 3, 2005: South Korean Military says test was of newer, Russian-derived missile

» More stories on: North Korea, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: FROG-7B