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Washington Times Editorial: Helping China Proliferate

The Washington Times editorial staff writes a fine editorial on the dangers of allowing China membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), an action which pretends China can be trusted. An excerpt:

China’s membership is tacit acknowledgement by the other member states — including the United States, Britain, France and Russia — that Beijing supposedly can be trusted with a bigger role in global nuclear trade. That is a shortsighted decision we fear could have dangerous implications in the future. China’s Communist government has a long history of weapons proliferation. Beijing’s relationship with North Korea is particularly troubling. For years, Pyongyang has acted as a middleman to sell billions of dollars of black-market Chinese weapons to such places as Libya, Iran, Syria, Cuba and Pakistan. Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons program would not exist without the technical expertise it received from Chinese scientists. North Korea has worked hastily to produce nuclear warheads and the systems to deliver them. The engineering and designs for their intercontinental ballistic missiles are Chinese, and the two nations maintain a mutual defense pact (the only one Beijing has). It is risky to assume that Beijing will not sell nuclear material to its ally given its lack of restraint in the past.

        The editors conclude, with no equivocation: “Beijing’s leaders harbor superpower ambitions and see themselves as the next challenger to American global power. Helping the Chinese become a more significant nuclear power is a mistake.”  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Proliferation

Pakistan Now Plans to Test Two Ghauri-III Missiles

Coming one week after reports that Pakistan would test launch a Ghauri-III missile in early June, the Pakistani newspaper Nawa-i-Waqt now claims that the country will now conduct two tests of the missile, on May 29 and on June 3. The Ghauri III, said to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads 3,500km, is Pakistan’s longest-range missile. “After the successful test-fire of Ghauri III missile, Pakistan will join the ranks of other countries that can manufacture intermediate range missiles,” the paper boasted.

Update: May 29: Pakistan Tests Hatf-5, with range of 1,500 km. (More »»») 

» May 21, 2004: Pakistan to test Ghauri III in early June

» More stories on: Pakistan, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Ghauri-3, Hatf 5

North Korean Missile Moratorium Meaningless, if Iran Sharing Test Data

On May 22, North Korea’s Kim Jong Il pledged to Japan that the communist country would maintain a moratorium on its ballistic missile tests, but a report by the Japanese Kyodo news service calls such a pledge into question, quoting a U.S. administration official saying that Iran is supplying test data from missile tests within its borders to North Korea, perhaps in exchange for nuclear technology. The unnamed official is quoted as saying that, “We’ve been concerned that maybe the Iranians are sharing data about their test with North Korea, perhaps in exchange for nuclear technology,” adding that a moratorium “isn’t very significant” if North Korea is getting Iranian missile test data. North Korea could be using data from Iranian tests to advance its own long range missile programs.
        The fact that North Korea recently reported it would offer for sale its longest range missile, the Taepo-Dong II, and that Iran is a likely client, could also well indicate collusion to circumvent testing on the Korean peninsula. North Korea could sell The Taepo-Dong II to Iran and use the location as a vicarious testing ground, all the while being able to claim a moratorium of its own.
        The Wall Street Journal reports on May 28 that Iran sent a response to the Kyodo news service denying that they were sharing test data. (Article, Link) 

» May 28, 2004: Iran denies any military cooperation with North Korea

» Japan: Missile Testing would violate aid agreement

» Japanese Defense Chief: unable to verify that North Korean missiles not targeting Japan

» May 22, 2004: Kim: North Korea will maintain missile moratorium:

» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Testing - Foreign

Feulner: Why Stay Vulnerable?

Ed Feulner, President of the Heritage Foundation, notes that a good offense alone is insufficient to provide a good defense, and missile defense is no exception. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis

Russia Markets New Versions of S-400 and SA-11 in Mideast

Russia continues to market two new forms of missile defense systems to the Mideast, the S-400 Triumf, and the Buk-1M1-2 (SA-11), reports Geostrategy-direct.
        The S-400, previously offered to several other countries, is claimed by its manufacturer, Almaz, to be the most effective missile defense system in the world, superior to the United States’ own PAC-3 system. The S-400 has a range of 400km, and its early warning radar is said to relay data to the interceptors in electromagnetic silence, which is useful to avoid itself being targeted. Russia is now offering the S-400 to the United Arab Emirates.
        A version of the Buk defense system (also known as SA-11 or Gadfly) is capable of intercepting aircraft, cruise missiles, and some short range ballistic missiles. In a statement by Buk’s manufacturer, the Russian Rosoboronexport company, said that

This is the only anti-aircraft missile system of medium range in the world, which is capable of destroying in unfriendly environment of radio and fire countermeasures not only aircraft of strategic and tactical aviation, helicopters and cruise missiles, but also tactical ballistic and aircraft missiles, including antiradar, destroying elements of high-precision weapons as well as surface and ground targets”

The Buk is also marketed in Europe. (Article, Link) 

» Rosoboronexport company’s list of exports

» April 30: successful test of S-400

» More stories on: Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-400 (SA-20 Triumf)

IISS: Iraq a Distraction from Larger Strategic Threats

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank thoughtfully suggests in a recent report that the war in Iraq has overly preoccupied the United States, serving as a distraction to the more strategic threats from the weapons of mass destruction and missiles of Iran and North Korea.
        IISS reports that the US had given primary responsibility for Iran to the European Union, and for North Korea to China—neither of which, one may speculate, necessarily has the best interests of the United States in mind—and that, as one might expect, neither of the two countries has chosen to follow Libya’s lead: “Instead, Teheran appears to be taking a harder line, perhaps believing that the U.S. is sidelined by Iraq and the presidential elections and that the Europeans are reluctant to press for sanctions in the Security Council.” A glance at recent news may well suggest that the same is true of North Korea.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, North Korea

Solar Energy for BMD Blimps

The High Altitude Airship, the missile defense blimp being pursued by the Missile Defense Agency, may be the subject of solar energy technology. The MDA has contracted with a solar energy company to research the feasibility to line the airships with thin-film solar photovoltaic cells. Such “solar photovoltaic” technology would allow the airship to maintain aloft and self sufficient for long periods of time. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Air

» Missile system details for: High Altitude Airship (Blimp)

Boeing Gets Additional ABL Contract

Boeing was today awarded a $500 million contract by the Department of Defense, for making improvements to the Airborne Laser. The contract comes some four days after the completion of a ground test at Edwards AFB, California, of the exhaust system for the laser.
        Update: Defense News reported that the General Accounting Office issued a statement on May 19 saying the cost of the ABL program has doubled and might be projected to triple. Originally, in 1996, the price tag was set at $1 billion, but is now at $2 billion. An additional $431 to $943 million is likely needed for the program.  (Article, Link) 

» DoD ABL contract

» More stories on: Air

» Missile system details for: Airborne Laser (ABL)

U.S., Danes Reach Agreement on Thule Radar

By unanimous vote the Danish parliament today approved a bill to allow the United States to upgrade the Thule ballistic missile early warning system (BMEWS) radar facility in northern Greenland, which will be a part of the missile tracking and detection for the upcoming U.S. missile defense system. The U.S. had originally requested the upgrade on December 17, 2002—the same day the White House announced it would be deploying a missile defense in 2004. The agreement, viewed as a revision of the previous 1951 pact with Denmark, allows for the local Inuit Greenland government to be a co-signatory and to be consulted in previous missile defense negotiations—as well as that the flags of all three countries be flown at the base. The U.S. is also upgrading the similar Fylingdales radar base in northern England.
        The Thule Air Base early warning radar is 1,200 kilometers south of the North Pole. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Detection and Tracking

THAAD Interceptor Production Begins

Lockheed today announced that the production of the interceptors for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), has now commenced at the company’s facility in Troy, Alabama. The first THAAD interceptor to be produced will be a “pathfinder” missile, used for testing this year, after which 16 flight test missiles will be manufactured. The flight testing for THAAD will begin later in 2004, beginning at White Sands, New Mexico, and extend through 2009, with an initial operational capability in 2007. THAAD has a range far beyond that of the Patriot, and can hit-to-kill both inside and outside the atmosphere.
        U.S. Representative Terry Everett of Alaska, at the THAAD ceremony, pointed out that the increased capabilities of the THAAD were previously banned under the ABM Treaty: “One critical thing President Bush did was get us out of the ABM treaty…Much of this missile is not ABM compliant—it flies too high, too fast.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Land-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)

Poll: 54% of Pennsylvanians Believe the U.S. Already Has a Missile Defense; 80% Support BMD

recent poll of 600 Pennsylvania registered voters, performed by an independent polling company and paid for by the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA), revealed that 54 percent of the state’s residents mistakenly believe that the U.S. already has such a system in place to protect the country and its citizens., when in fact no such defense exists. Some 80% of those surveyed support the deployment of such defenses. (Article, Link) 

» Details of PA survey by MDAA

» More stories on: Policy

Russia Keeps Nuclear Weapons, Strategic Missiles a High Priority

“Of crucial importance,” said President Putin in his May 26 state of the federation message, “is equipping our nuclear arsenal with the most advanced strategic weapons systems. The quality of one’s weapons is the key to the readiness of modern armies.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Weldon Calls for U.S.-Russia BMD Cooperation

Leading a congressional delegation in Moscow, Representative Curt Weldon today called for further technical cooperation with Russia in the development of missile defenses, repeating a message made days before by former Sec. of Defense William Cohen.
        Weldon praised the joint Russian-American Observation Satellite program (RAMOS), begun under George H. W. Bush, designed to permit early detection of missile launches, but called for additional programs more specifically directed at missile defense. Weldon said that projects under consideration range “from the use of Russian radar systems to the potential involvement of Russia in targeting and other aspects of missile defense.” Weldon said that he had suggested to Russia’s military leadership that there be cooperation based on Russian missile defense technology as well.
        The Russian ITAR TASS news agency noted that Weldon also spoke of U.S. help for Russia to restore its large ground-based radars previously banned by the ABM Treaty: “Large radars can be restored with US assistance not only outside Krasnoyarsk, where a radar was dismantled, but also in other locations.” ITAR TASS did not mention that the reason the Krasnoyarsk radar was dismantled in the late 1980s was that it was in clear violation of the ABM Treaty. President Reagan had demanded for years that it be dismantled, before the Soviet Union acknowledged it was a violation and did in fact dismantle it.
        Weldon said that “the anti-ballistic system could become a joint one,” and that the US should cooperate with Russia’s own blossoming missile defense efforts for the S-400 and S-500 systems, the construction of which Weldon indicated the United States might help fund.  (Link) 

» Weldon’s remarks, from ITAR TASS

» May 21, 2004: Cohen calls for Russia to build US-type BMD

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

Extensive Iranian Presence in Libya, Extensive Missile Development, Contracts

Middle East Newsline cites intelligence sources revealing an extensive Iranian presence in Libya, which included the development of missiles, and both conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction. Some 100 military contracts are said to have existed, and there is apparently an Iranian-built plant in Libya to produce liquid fuel for Libyan missiles.
        Said one source: “The United States found evidence of Iranian involvement in virtually every major Libyan weapons program.” One may surmise that Iran was not completely oblivious to Libya’s nuclear program, the uranium for which was recently revealed by the New York Times to be of North Korean origin. There seems little reason to believe that North Korea would be opposed to aiding Iran’s own nuclear programs as well.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Libya, Proliferation

Russia Dragging Feet on Non-Proliferation Agreement; Russian Proliferation to Iran Problematic

Undersecretary of State John Bolton met with his Russian counterpart today to continue to try to persuade Russia to join its anti-proliferation efforts. RIA Novosti reports that Bolton denied any “strategic” differences between Russia and the US on proliferation, and in particular that neither side wants Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
        But if it is true that Russia does not want Iran to acquire such weapons, they have a funny way of showing it, as Russia continues with its helping Iran develop a nuclear reactor program.  (More »»») 

» More stories on: Proliferation, Russia

Chinese Companies Exported Missile Products

China admitted two of its companies had violated even domestic regulations on exporting of “missiles, missile-related products and technologies” to other countries, by the act fining two of them “millions of yuan” for doing so.
        The Chinese Ministry of Commerce did not name them, or detail what materials had been shipped, or to what countries, but indicated that one was a trading firm in the province of Jiangsu, and the other is a chemical firm in the province of Shandong. The ministry said in a statement that

The Chinese government always has fought against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and anti-terrorism, and has launched a series rules controlling the export of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and missiles.

        The United States had previously sanctioned several Chinese companies for transferring missile technology to Iran, Pakistan, and others, which China and the companies had denied. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Proliferation

Congressman Crowley Urges Sale of PAC-3 to India

New York Congressman Joseph Crowley has urged Secretary of State Colin Powell support India’s request to buy the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile defense system.
        In his letter, Crowley, a Democrat, stresses the need for the United States to help India “deploy a capability to defend itself against a ballistic missile strike from an adversary or a rogue nation, or from an accidental launch from a friendly neighbour.”
        The logic of Crowley’s argument about India and the desirability of systems “purely defensive in nature” is applicable to other nations as well, and most especially to the United States. Other Democrats would be wise to also support ballistic missile defense.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: India

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

Proliferation Nexus Widens: Libyan Uranium from North Korea, Not Pakistan

As important was the revelation that the Libyan nuclear weapons program had sources in Pakistan via A. Q. Khan, the proliferation network may be yet wider.
        U.S. officials had initially indicated that the uranium hexafluoride Libya had relinquished earlier this year came from Pakistan, but a story in the New York Times cites unnamed U.S. officials and European diplomats as saying that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found strong evidence that the 1.7 metric tons of Libyan uranium in fact came from North Korea.
        Libya turned over a large quantity of uranium hexafluoride to the United States earlier this year, as part of an agreement to give up its nuclear program. U.S. officials initially identified Pakistan as the likely source of the material.
        But The New York Times, citing unnamed U.S. officials and European diplomats, reports the International Atomic Energy Agency recently found strong evidence that the 1.7 metric tons of the uranium in Libya’s possession came from North Korea. The uranium was described as being unusable for nuclear fuel, but was enough material to make one nuclear bomb. The Times says that a new level of suspicion now lurks, that North may have sold uranium to other countries or to terrorists. (More »»») 

» Seoul embarrassed, concerned, at North’s nuclear promiscuity

» More stories on: North Korea, Proliferation

Miller on the Next Steps for Missile Defense

John Miller of NRO takes note of the recent debate which is sure to continue after the first missile deployment takes place later this year. The debate concerns nothing less than the future of missile defense. Miller rightly favors a space-based approach to any attempt at boost-phase interception, calling for a revival of Brilliant Pebbles over the costly and unlikely Kinetic Energy Interceptor.
        Miller quotes Senator Kyl of Arizona as repudiating the notion that defensive systems in space somehow represent a fresh weaponization of that arena: “The notion that defensive space-based interceptors will somehow weaponize space is intellectually dishonest…And we shouldn’t be using the phrase ‘weapons in space.’ Space is already used by militaries and of offensive missile in space is no less using space than its defensive interceptor.”  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy, Space-Based Systems

TX Senator John Cornyn Supporting Missile Defense

Texas Senator John Cornyn writes in today’s Houston Chronicle that, despite the opposition of Democrats for insufficient testing, it is important to remember that some level of missile defense is better than none.
        Writes Cornyn: “Either America provides some level of defense against long-range ballistic missile threats now, or delays and leaves the nation unguarded - perhaps indefinitely - while waiting for a perfect system to be developed.”
        There is in reality no silver bullet, or perfect defense, which arms controllers typically hold up as the only acceptable form of BMD. Some is better than none, more is better than less, and a layered missile defense is superior to a reliance upon any single form of defense.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Deployment

Cohen: Russia Should Develop US-Type BMD

Former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen told a Russian reporter that “it is in Russia’s interests” to construct a ballistic missile defense system like that the United States is working to build, and that the U.S. and Russia should work together on BMD: “I hope we shall try to further cooperate in mutually beneficial defense programs,” he said, as reported by the Russian ITAR TASS news agency. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russian Missile Defenses

Pakistan to Test Ghauri III Missile in Early June

Pakistan is preparing to test a 3,500km range ballistic missile, referred to as the Ghauri-III, in the first week of June, possibly on June 3. This would be the first flight test of the liquid-fueled Ghauri III, and the longest-range missile of Pakistan’s to date, surpassing the range of the Shaheen II. A successful motor test for the missile has already taken place, reports the Pakistani newspaper Nawa-i-Waqt, probably in September 1999.
        The missile will be fired from the testing range near the northwest province of Nowshera, and will travel southward, into the Arabian Sea. The Ghauri missile system was initially developed by Abdul Qadeer Khan. In March, Pakistan tested its Shaheen II missile, with a reported range of 2,000 to 3,000km.
        Several news reports describe the Ghauri III missile as “long range,” but a missile with a range of 3,500km would be classified as an intermediate range ballistic missile, or IRBM.

Update: May 24: Pakistan could launch missile within 48 hours (Article, Link) 

» March 9, 2004: Pakistan tests Shaheen II

» Nawa-i-Waqt report on Pakistan test (subscription)

» More stories on: Pakistan, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Ghauri-3

Spring: “Cut and Delay” is Wrong Path for BMD

Baker Spring of the Heritage Foundation responds to the opposition the Bush administration defense budget has been receiving by Democrats in the House and Senate this week, some of whom are doing their very best to kill important parts of missile defense funding in committee.
        Thus far, most of these attempts at fatal amendments have failed. Spring writes to refute two “spurious contentions”: 1) that missile defense has not had adequate testing to deploy, and 2) that missile defense is too costly.
        Spring also points out—as Bush also pointed out in his December 2002 National Security Policy Directive 23 ordering the deployment—that the president is bound by the 1999 law, that makes it the policy of the United States to deploy a missile defense as soon as technologically feasible.  (Article, Link) 

» Text of 1999 Missile Defense Act

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

Iran Could Test ICBMs by 2005

Middle East Newsline reports that U.S. intelligence officials believe that Iran could begin testing components of intercontinental ballistic missile in 2005, likely from the Shahab missile family.
        “During 2003, Iran continued R&D in its longer-range ballistic missile programs, and publicly reiterated its intention to develop space launch vehicles — and SLVs contain most of the key building blocks for an ICBM,” CIA director George Tenet told the Senate Intelligence Committee on Feb. 24. “Iran could begin flight-testing these systems in the mid- to latter-part of the decade.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Shahab-5, Shahab-6

Smith on the KEI

David J. Smith of the National Institute for Public Policy defends the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) as it is making its way through congressional committees for funding.
        Smith’s piece in the Tucson Citizen seems to be a hometown push for the Tucson-based KEI program. Smith argues persuasively for the need for boost-phase defenses as part of a layered missile defense. But while the KEI is a boost-phase program, Smith does not address any of the recent criticisms, that a boost phase program based on land is inherently problematic, in no small part because of the need to be in the right place at the right time, namely very near to the launch site of any missile which it is meant to intercept. The ability of the KEI to be based in space or sea, however, would go far to eliminating many of its problems. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Land-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)

Messing and Keller: China’s Ulterior Motives for Covert Proliferation

F. Andy Messing Jr. and James A. Kellar of the National Defense Council Foundation write in today’s Washington Times of the palpable technological transfers from China to Pakistan, North Korea, and elsewhere, of which the most important are their joint nuclear and ballistic missile efforts. In doing so, they reinforce a point often made here about the real sources of proliferation: that upstart rogue state WMD and missile programs are not operating in a vacuum, but rather have received considerable support from Russia and China.

Pakistan, Iran and North Korea are all pursuing WMD capability. However, to address these countries alone is inadequate. It is akin to fighting a war on drugs by only pursuing the street corner dealer and neglecting Colombia.

 (More »»») 

» More stories on: China, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, Proliferation

North Korean Explosion Prevents Missile Shipment to Syria

The April 22 railroad explosion near the North Korean northwestern province of Ryongchon seems to have exposed a link between North Korea-Syria in ballistic missile proliferation. The “train collision” is said to have destroyed missiles and other “large equipment” bound for Syria, as well as a dozen North Korean-trained Syrian technicians for Syria’s country’s Center for Scientific Research. The explosion is said to have measured 3.6 on the Richter scale.
        Moreover, reports East Asia Intel, the missile components were heading from a region near the Chinese border to a North Korean port. Some dispute whether China or North Korea will hold the title for the biggest exporter of ballistic missiles to the middle east. But is it also possible that China is complicit in North Korean proliferation? ( (Article, Link) 

» Middle East Newsline report on train explosion

» Imagery of explosion from globalsecurity.org

» More stories on: China, North Korea, Proliferation, Syria

Private Rocket Reaches Space

Representing another marker in the advancing state of ballistic missile technology, the first privately constructed rocket has reached an altitude of over 100km. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Technology

MEADS Simulation Completed

The MEADS program today announced the completion of a demonstration which clears the way for the program to enter design and development. The demonstration took place at Practica di Mare Air Base outside Rome on May 6. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Land-Based Systems, Testing - American

Radar Deal Likely With Denmark, Greenland

Denmark and Greenland are apparently close to closing a deal for the expansion of the Thule Air Base radar in Greenland to be used for the United States missile defense program. The United States hopes to reach an agreement by May 28, according to the Nordic Business Report. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

Missile Defense Advocates Question KEI

As the Pentagon pushes for the development of the Kinectic Energy Interceptor (KEI), a system intended to shoot down missiles during the boost phase, and as the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) gave contracts to Northrop Grumman and Raytheon to develop the KEI system, staunch missile defense supporters are voicing concern over the usefulness of the system, according to Defense News.
        Henry Cooper, chairman of High Frontier, a missile defense advocacy group, said last month at a Washington breakfast sponsored by the National Defense University, funding should be allocated to space and sea-based systems within the time frame provided for the development of the KEI. Frank Gaffney, president of the Center for Security Policy, and James Hackett, a San Diego-based consultant, echoed similar sentiments.
        Gaffney noted that the KEI, a land-based system, lacks in effectiveness against missiles in their boost phase because it is not able to be deployed near the launch site. For missile defense interceptors, the boost phase provides much better odds for taking out a missile because of the slower speed of flight right after launch and the inability to utilize decoys.
        All three experts agreed that, in the long term, a space-based system is the best way forward for countering missiles in the boost phase; while, for the near term, using some KEI money for putting interceptors modeled after the Standard Missile-3 on the Navy’s Aegis cruisers is a worthwhile endeavor. (Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)

Topol-M will be Foundation of Russian Arsenal by 2015

Yuriy Solomonov, director of the Moscow Institute of Heat Technology and designer-general of the Topol family of missiles, told journalists today that the silo- and mobile- launched versions of the Topol-M will form the basis of the Strategic Missile Troops after 2015:

Missiles of the previous generation will in practical terms be incapable of alert status by that time, they are becoming obsolescent…Certainly, Topol-M is the most modern missile. It belongs to the next generation of missile weaponry and differs fundamentally from everything that has been done before in this field in our country and abroad. This concerns its tactical technical features and also the features of its combat use, which is designed for conditions of possible counteraction by antimissile defence systems.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-27

A Maginot Line in the Sky?

An op-ed piece by a Lawrence S. Wittner repeats a tired criticism of missile defense efforts, that it is a “Maginot Line in the sky.” In other words, try our very best, it is impossible to stop a ballistic missile attack, and thus we should not even try.
        The response to this analogy is quite simple. There is nothing wrong with border defenses, so long as they are better constructed and defend the whole of one’s territory. The problem with France’s Maginot Line is not that it tried to achieve too much security, but that it did not do enough. Thus Germany took advantage of France’s naive hope that the Black Forest was impenetrable, and thus circumvented the Maginot Line.
        But one should not lose sight of the fact that it was not without good reason that France constructed border defenses. Germany still had to employ a great deal of difficulty and ingenuity in order to invade. Of course, France would have been better to extend the Maginot line still further around its border—not because it would be a perfect solution, but because it would render any invasion by Germany more difficult. Of course, even with broader defenses, one can never put complete faith in any one line of defenses; there is no perfect state of security.
        But the fact that no technological innovation is impregnable applies to both ballistic missiles and ballistic missile defenses. One must do what one can to construct the best defense possible. To learn from the lessons of the past is not to capitulate, but that one cannot rest with a half-hearted defense. To put forward only a half-hearted missile defense and then do nothing more would be to forget the lesson of the Maginot line. But to do nothing is even worse, to preemptively offer surrender to anyone who wishes to accept it. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis

Payne: Low Yield Nukes Important Deterrent

Writing for National Review Online, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense Keith Payne argues that low yield nuclear weapons are invaluable to maintaining America’s deterrent, and offer a host of smaller and cleaner retaliatory options. There is no reason nuclear weapons need be an untouchable and unthinkable taboo—and such concepts only cloud more hard-headed strategic thinking. Technological advances in more precise targeting have eliminated the need for larger weapons; smaller, more accurate devices can deliver the same effect when delivered more closely to their target. Payne persuasively points out that the decision to use nuclear weapons would still be be guided by the most extraordinary strategic political circumstances, and for this reason no mystical or special character of nuclear technology should stand in the way of their development. Smaller nuclear weapons only broadens the options at the disposal of a commander in chief. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons

China Threatens Taiwan with “Destruction”

Just prior to the inauguration of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, China warned Taiwan to withdraw from its “dangerous lurch toward independence” or face “destruction.” Besides this stick, China also offered as carrot a host of economic advantages if Chen would use the phrase “One China” in his inauguration speech. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Taiwan

Topol M Warhead Impact Captured on Film

Yuriy Solomonov, director of the Moscow Institute of Heat Technology, announced to journalists today that the moment of impact for the warhead from the recent April 20 test launch of a Topol M ICBM was captured on video “for the first time in the world,” stressing that nothing like this had been done before in Russia or elsewhere.
        The purposes for capturing the warhead on film may be many, possibly relating to Moscow’s attempts to make the Topol M warhead maneuverable and thus resistant to American missile defenses. Regardless, the fact that they were able to capture the warhead on firm would seem to illustrate the much-touted accuracy of Russia’s newest missile.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Maneuverable Warheads, Russia

» Missile details: SS-27

Japanese War Scenarios Anticipate Chinese Invasion in Event of Taiwan War

Documents acquired by the Japanese Kyodo news service show that the Japanese Defense Agency has drawn up plans anticipating an invasion by China during an attack on Taiwan. Japan’s plan in such a scenario would involve the deployment of 7,200 ground troops to Japan’s southernmost islands to deter an invasion of the Okinawa Prefecture.

In particular, the documents mentioned that Miyako and nearby islands are likely to be targeted because of an Air Self-Defence Force radar base and two airports located in the area. China may invade Yonaguni Island, the westernmost part of Japan and 100 km from Taiwan, as a stepping stone to attack Taiwan, the office assumes. It also assumes that China would attack the islands by sea and air, with marine forces landing from assault ships as well as airborne units and special forces attacking ASDF bases and airports with rocket-propelled grenade and other weapons, according to the documents. The office believes that China will deploy 1,400 troops to attack Miyako and Yonaguni islands. If Ishigaki Island is included, the number would total 5,200, the documents say.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, China, Taiwan

BMD Expert Running for Congress

An expert and advocate for missile defense, Lisa Marie Cheney, a Republican, is running for congress in Virginia, running against Democrat James P. Moran Jr. Cheney owns PSMA Inc., a government relations firm specializing in missile defense. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Five Russian Missiles Successfully Tested Since December

The press service for Russia’s Strategic Missile Troops commented that Russia has successfully test launched five ICBMs since December 1, 2003. Col.-Gen. Nikolay Solovtsov said in his commander’s report that the Strategic Missile Troops “are combat-ready and capable of resolving military tasks assigned to them under any conditions.” Moreover, “The final decision has been made: the Missile Troops will be armed with both stationary and mobile land-based missile systems.” The story in ITAR-TASS goes on to enumerate the tests:

A test launch of an RS-18 ICBM (SS-19 Stiletto in Western classification terms) was carried out from Baykonur on 5 December 2003. A further two RS-18 ICBMs were launched from Baykonur and a Topol [ICBM] from Plesetsk as part of the Security-2004 strategic command-and-staff exercises in February 2004. A Topol-M ICBM was launched from a mobile launcher on 20 April. The launch was carried out to test its maximum range.

        The story does not, however, seem to recognize the two test failures. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

Patriot Friendly Fire Accident Ruled “Perceived Self-Defense”

The downing of a British Tornado jet on March 22, 2003 during the Iraq War was an act of “perceived self-defense,” after the Patriot missile defense system misidentified the jet as an enemy missile, according to a U.S. Central Command’s investigation. The “immediate cause” was said to be an electronics failure of the plane’s “Interrogation Friend or Foe” transponder. (Article, Link) 

» Patriot (PAC-3) description

» More stories on: Land-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

Union of Concerned Scientists Knocks BMD

The Union of Concerned Scientists today released a report, Technical Realities, complaining that the missile defense interceptors set to be deployed this year serve no purpose, address no real threat, and are insufficiently tested.
        The charge of insufficient testing is valid, but it is important to remember that one purpose of the Fort Greely and Vandenburg AFB deployment sites is to serve as a test bed. That they would be deployed during that time to offer some minimal defense only makes sense. Reports such as these must try very hard to minimize the threat from rogue states, to say nothing of the threat from Russia and China. It is true that the limited number of interceptors set to be deployed in August—nine—are far from enough to adequately defend America. On this score, the UCS is, in a sense, correct. But the response to this charge is that they only the first installment. A more robust and layered defense is necessary to truly complete the job, and the testing conducted from Alaska and Vandenburg will aid in moving along towards that goal.
        Studies such as these refuse to recognize the fairly obvious fact that, even despite the system’s limitations, some defense is better than none. (Article, Link) 

» Full text of UCS report (.pdf)

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

Possible U.S.-Japan Joint Laser Program

Japanese Defense Agency Director General Shigeru Ishiba suggested to Japan’s the Lower House Emergency Legislation Special Committee that the country should look into a joint study with the United States to develop aircraft-mounted lasers, reports the Asahi Shimbun newspaper. Such a program would likely parallel or be in conjunction with the United States’ current Airborne Laser (ABL) program.
        Japan is also looking into a number of other American missile defense programs, including Patriot, the Aegis sea-based SM-3 missile, and land-based missile radars. It has been suggested that Japan may begin deploying defenses by 2006. (Link) 

» More stories on: Air, Allies, High Energy Defenses

Possibility of Russian Radars, Targets, for BMD Tests

Representative Curt Weldon said that the United States is looking at Russian radars and targets as part of the U.S. missile defense program, according to today’s edition of Aerospace Daily & Defense Report. Weldon spoke of MDA’s interest in using Russia’s “very good” expertise in constructing ballistic missile-tracking radars, access to which could help the United States improve its ability to track missile threats from China and North Korea. In addition, Weldon noted that MDA may be interested in having Russia produce targets to be used in missile defense tests, but added that Russia’s cooperation is unlikely: “I don’t think the Russians really want to be in a position of having America constantly shoot down what they put up in space.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy, Russian Missile Defenses

China Aiding Syrian Missile Program

Rogue states are not the only, or even the chief sources of proliferation. In one way or another, much can be traced back to Russia and China. The Middle East Newsline today reports that, despite Bashar Assad’s disavowals of any pursuit of WMDs, Syria is in fact working ever more closely with China, receiving from the latter technological and diplomatic delegations to discuss how to boost Syria’s missile capabilities. Middle East Newsline cites one diplomatic source saying that “The Chinese effort is meant to provide Syria with technical assistance that it has not been able to receive from other countries…The focus is to extend the Scud from short-range to medium- and even intermediate-range.” (Link) 

» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Syria

Ship-Based Missile Defense Tests Planned for 2004

The May 12 edition of Inside Missile Defense reports that the Missile Defense Agency plans to use a converted assault ship for six missile defense tests over the next 18 months. The ship would use the ship to launch both targets and interceptors, and would involve a number of systems including the Patriot (PAC-3), the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and the joint U.S.-Israel Arrow interceptor.
        The report is significant for two reasons. First, the systems listed as to be tested are usually land-based (they do not include the Aegis SM-3 interceptor): that they would potentially be launched from a ship would seem to show some measure of innovation. Second, and more importantly, the use of a ship for the launch of targets, that is, of a missile simulating an enemy’s launches, may indicate the possibility of testing for the prospect of ship-launched ballistic missile threats, such as one off the coast of the United States. Against such threats, current Ground Based Interceptors such as those to be deployed in Alaska and California this year, would probably provide no defense.
        Def. Sec. Rumsfeld and Asst. Sec. Wolfowitz have both warned of the prospect of a ship-launched missile off our nation’s coast, in the month of October 2001 and 2002, respectively.
        It is against threats such as these which require extensive defenses along our coasts, or more especially space-based defenses capable of near-instantaneous reaction, such as a space-based laser.  (Article, Link) 

» Missilethreat.com scenario: A ship-launched SCUD off coast of California against Hollywood

» Oct. 21, 2001: Rumsfeld warns that rogue state has test launched ship-based missile

» Oct. 24, 2002: Wolfowitz warns of ship-launched threat

» More stories on: Testing - American

The Real Story is China

Sol Sanders, writing at worldtribune.com, argues that despite the global obsession with events in Iraq, “the real story is China.” Sanders points out the significance of China’s increasingly coercive relation to Hong Kong, represented in no small part by the recent parade of a Chinese military fleet through the Hong Kong harbor. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China

Cruise Missile Defenses Pursued

Global Security Newswire reports that the Army is planning to develop new cruise missile defenses by 2008 or 2010, in response to increased proliferation and technology available for such threats. (More »»») 

» More stories on: Cruise Missile Defenses

South Korea Develops “Cold Launch” Technology

China’s Xinhua News Agency reports that South Korea has become the second nation, after Russia, to perfect “cold launch” technology, which involves the minimizing of launching flames which serve as a sort of marker for the launching site. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Technology

Aegis Missile Interceptors May Be Sold to Japan

In addition to deploying a U.S. Aegis cruiser to the Sea of Japan this year, plans to sell sea-based interceptors to Japan are likely to get the go-ahead, according to a news story in Forbes. Japan is expected to purchase nine SM-3 interceptors for its existing Aegis ships. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Sea-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Japan Planning Missile Purchases, Tests

Japan and the United States have tentatively agreed to conduct a joint, sea-based missile interceptor flight test in late 2005, according to Japan’s Kyodo news, and Inside Missile Defense. The interceptor tested would likely be the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3), deployed on Aegis destroyers.
        Moreover, Japan has requested to purchase, according to SpaceDaily, nine SM-3 Block 1A missiles and other upgrades, including to the overall Aegis system, worth up to $725 million. (Article, Link) 

» Space Daily on Japan’s purchasing, testing plans

» More stories on: Allies, Sea-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Britain, Poland Considered for Additional BMD Interceptor Sites

Britain and Poland are two countries under consideration for a Europe-based site for an additional ten ground-based interceptors, reports the London based Evening Standard. The report cites a recent Janes Defense Weekly as saying that while Poland has already offered to host the interceptors, one should not “count out” the Brits.
        Poland’s offer notwithstanding, the location of such interceptors in such proximity to Russia would seem to make that location doubtful. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Land-Based Systems

Bush MD Plans Win in House

The Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee approved language to cut $177 million from the Bush administration’s 2005 missile defense budget request, including $75 million for the Kinetic Energy Interceptor. Republicans succeeded in keeping in funding for the second round of some 20 interceptors to be fielded in 2006 and 2007, and Democratic members’ attempts to kill preparations for space-based interceptors to begin in 2010 and for the NFIRE test in 2006 were thwarted. (Article, Link) 

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MX Missiles Could be Armed with Conventional Warheads

The Department of Defense is considering using a number of now deactivated MX or “Peacekeeper” missiles rather than destroying them altogether, possibly to arm them with conventional warheads, in an effort to both find a replacement for the aging Minuteman III force and to maintain a credible deterrent, both nuclear and otherwise. Conventionally armed missiles need not be directed at only Russia and China, but could also be used to destory targets in rogue states. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

» Missile details: Peacekeeper

A “New Cold War” With Russia

Despite the elation and optimism after the fall of the Soviet Union, it is not the case that the United States has vanquished its real, strategic, enemies, and second that those enemies pose no threat. Kelley Vlahos of Fox news reports on the recent souring of relations between Russia and the United States, and speculates that the United States may be entering into a new Cold War With Russia. In part to the mounting evidence that Russian “democracy” is but a sham, but also the anger at invasion of Iraq, the analysis serves to not only illuminate the immediate situation, but remind Americans of the fleeting and unreliable character of diplomatic relations between strategic competitors. (More »»») 

» May 6 Moscow Times: CIA says Russia may break up

» More stories on: Russia

THEL Test Successful

The Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) successfully destroyed a rocket by means of a laser on May 4, reports its producer, Northrop Grumman in a press release today. The test is described as “history making,” because the rocket destroyed was “larger, faster and that flies higher than previous threats destroyed by the laser weapon demonstrator.” A previous test this past week succeeded in its primary goal of tracking the rocket but did not attempt to destroy it. The target rockets in both tests were 6 1/2 inches in diameter and 11 feet long.
        The interception comes as part of a series of tests begun on April 29. These specific tests were of a mobile form of the laser, called MTHEL, which will be the first version deployable of the weapons system. THEL is a collaborative effort between Israel and the United States, often tested at White Sands, New Mexico.
        In programs such as THEL, the speed of lasers permits rapid interception of both short range rockets with a short flight time, as in the case of Israel, but also the ability to destroy larger, even intercontinental ballistic missiles during their brief ascent, or boost phase. Whereas another land-based boostphase program, the Kinetic Energy Interceptor, must devise methods for the interceptor to achieve extremely high velocities in order to “catch up” with an enemy missile during a brief ascent window, lasers based on land or in space would permit much more comfortable reaction times. (Article, Link) 

» April 30, 2004: Previous MTHEL test

» April 21, 2003: THEL selected by Army

» More stories on: High Energy Defenses, Israel, Testing - American, Testing - Foreign

» Missile system details for: Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)

Marshall Policy Report: BMD Still Important

The Marshall Institute today released a policy document, “Missile Defense: A Continuing National Priority.” Among the points considered are that while terrorism is a scourge to our national security, the threat from ballistic missiles continues to grow. In a number of useful charts, they also show that increases in defense expenditures over past decades have continued while the budget for missile defense remains abysmally low. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

NFIRE Could Intercept Missile Target From Space by 2006

The Missile Defense agency is reportedly planning to test the Near Field Infrared Experiment (NFIRE) system in 2006, according to the Globalsecurity Newswire, citing an apparent email discussion among defense officials. The NFIRE has the potential to aid in the development of a space-based kill vehicle to be used to intercept a ballistic missile.
        The NFIRE spacecraft is said to be under construction and planned for launch in late 2005. The 2006 test, supposing it were to occur, would probably not involve an interception, except incidentally, but only the gathering of sensor data. The interceptor is said to not be capable of “weapon-like” movement; “There is a significant chance the KV will impact the target, but that is not our objective.”  (More »»») 

» More stories on: Policy, Space-Based Systems

Graver Threats

Commenting on the appearance of Bush and Cheney before the 9-11 commission, William Hawkins argues in the Washington Times that the criticism the administration has spent too much time addressing rogue states, nuclear and missile proliferation, and missile defense and not enough time on terrorism, is ill-founded, even dangerous, approach to take. Calling upon readers to take a broader, more strategic perspective, he notes that “such developments posed far greater threats to American security than did al Qaeda, and still do.” He goes on to describe the sort of strategic thinking which must prevail if America is to remain free, and the danger that the war on terrorism will become a distraction from these “graver threats.” Terrorism, he writes, is a tool of the weak. The danger, one may therefore infer, is that if the United States sees only these weak (or, as they are often called, “asymmetrical”) threats, we will neglect the greater, more traditional sources of power in the world. (More »»») 

» More stories on: China, Russia

Clinton Plan to Ease Russia Nuclear Hair-Trigger A Failure

A Clinton-era plan to ease Russia’s hair-trigger nuclear alerts has been unsuccessful, notes Scott Peterson, writing in the Christian Science Monitor, despite some seven billion dollars spent by the United States to reduce such threats. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Proliferation, Russia

Japan-U.S. Joint Test in 2005

Japan and the United States are planning to conduct their first joint flight test in the second half of 2005 for sea-based missile interceptors. A second flight test would follow in 2006. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Testing - American, Testing - Foreign

North Korea Set to Test Missile Engines

Amidst global attention to Iraq prison scandals, there has been a flurry of news regarding North Korean missiles.
        Most recent is a report that the small communist nation is preparing to test for the first time engines probably for the Taepo Dong II intercontinental ballistic missile, reports from the JoongAng South Korean newspaper. An unnamed official is quoted as observing that “We have confirmed that they have moved the crane that would hoist the oxidizer — the liquid fuel of the missile — and the rocket.”
        The Taepo Dong I missile of a shorter range was launched over Japan in 1998. The two stage version of the Taepo-Dong II is believed to use a Chinese liquid fuel engine for its first stage, and the North Korean Rodoing missile as its second stage. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Taep'o-dong 2

Russia Extending Life of ICBMs

Speaking to journalists, Russian Strategic Missile Troops commander Col.-Gen. Nikolay Solovtsov said that the service life of Russian ICBMs would be extended an additional 10-15 years, for a total of 25-30 years, reports ITAR TASS.
        Though Solovtsov did not specify which missiles were being extended, he was likely referring to SS-18 and SS-19s. He attributed the extension of the missile’s usability to “good maintenance.” Equally relevant, however, is the cash-strapped nature of the advanced Topol-M (SS-27) missile deployment, which continues to proceed but is currently behind schedule in producing replacing older ICBMs.
        Solovtsov seemed to indicate that the Topol-M deployments would be largely complete in 10 years: “After 2015, the mainstay of the SMT group will be the Topol-M missile systems, both silo-based and mobiles ones, with various armaments.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-18 Mod 4, SS-19 Mod 2, SS-27

US Amends MTCR Rules

The U.S. Dept. of Commerce has altered the regulations for the Missile Technoogy Control Regime (MTCR), as noted in the Federal Register. The new rules took effect on May 4. The changes added another chemical used in missile fuel to the list of items that must be licensed for export. (More »»») 

» More stories on: Proliferation

North Korean Taepo-Dong II Now For Sale

Quoting “western intelligence sources,” worldtribune.com reports that North Korea has begun to offer its long-range Taepo-Dong II for sale to several middle eastern nations.
        The news comes just days after other reports that North Korea is building new missile bases, developing new missiles, has “at least” eight nuclear weapons, and, ironically enough, that Kim Jong Il pledged to the United States that he would not transfer ballistic missiles to terrorists. The sale of missiles is, however, North Korea’s primary source of revenue.
        Likely buyers include another rogue state and state sponsor of terrorism, Iran, which has apparently been negotiating a purchase with Pyongyang. Worldtribune’s source says that 2003 negotiations for the purchase of the Taepo-Dong by Syria and Libya apparently were not pursued, but that Iran was considering the Taepo-Dong as a possible basis for the its ICBM program, the Shahab-5, the development of the engines for which China is also named as an aid.
        Depending on the version of the Taepo-Dong II, the intercontinental missile has a range of 6000km or more. The three stage version of the missile has a range capable of striking the continental United States.  (Article, Link) 

» Dec. 14, 1999: North Korea Readies Taepo-Dong I missiles for sale to Iran

» Dec. 7, 1999: U.S. expects Iran will be North Korea’s first ICBM customer

» May 5, 2004: Middle East Newswire on Taepo Dong Market

» May 6, 2004: LA Times: North Korea “may” have missile to reach Guam

» More stories on: China, North Korea, Proliferation

» Missile details: Shahab-3, Taep'o-dong 2

New Arrow II Missile Interceptors

A joint project between Boeing and Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) has begun to begin producing new missile interceptors for Israel’s Arrow II ballistic missile defense program. New deliveries are due in Israel by the end of 2004, where they will be assembled.
        Arieh Herzog, director of the Israel Missile Defense Organization, responded to criticisms about the threat posed to Israel, by noting that the threat from missiles will never quite return to nothing:

Obviously, events of the past year have brought us good news in terms of a diminished number of countries that can threaten Israel with ballistic missiles. But we have to remember that nothing moves backward. As long as the Americans are in Iraq, the threat is checked. But if the Americans leave, we don’t know what kind of regime will be there. Without American supervision, the Iraqi ballistic missile program and its capabilities could be quickly reconstituted.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Israel

» Missile system details for: Arrow

NY Times: This Time, Missile Defense Is For Real

The New York Times runs a piece noting the plans for missile defense deployment this year. Noting that “This Time It’s Real,” the article points to the problem which has thus far plagued missile defense, namely that while limited research and development have gone, nothing has actually been fielded. Such is true of the administrations of Bill Clinton, George H. W. Bush, and even the Reagan administration which began the Strategic Defense Initiative.
        The Bush administration has broken from the paralysis of inaction by committing to an actual deployment. The Times notes of critics’ claims that the land-based system to be deployed has been insufficiently tested, but it should be remembered that part of the purpose of the Fort Greeley Alaska deployment has always been to provide a test bed for further testing.
        The Times also remarks upon the relative quietude with which the deployment is proceeding, which has been happening with “little fanfare.” While the deployment is certainly deserving of fanfare, the fact that it has not elicited it is of a very secondary importance. For the first time in some 30 years, namely since the brief-lived deployment at Grand Forks, Nebraska in the mid 1970s, the United States will have some very limited defense against certain strikes.
        It must also be remembered that the Alaska and California deployments will and should be but the first step in an evolving and layered defense, which one day should protect the United States from any missile attack whatsoever. Quoted in the Times piece include critics Richard Garwin and Dean Wilkening, the latter of whom suggests that the 2004 deployment is politically rushed and remarks that “I simply don’t see the threat.” Such delusion seems almost inexplicable, when compared with the almost daily news of increasing proliferation of missiles around the world. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

China Shows Off DF-15 SRBMs Deployed Near Taiwan

China is “showing off” some of its many short-range ballistic missiles deployed off the coast of Taiwan, with a April 29 publication of DF-15 (CSS-6) pictures in the official military newspaper, PLA Daily, reports East Asia Intel.
        Although the missiles are short-range (600km), the paper pointedly describes them as “strategic,” indicative of the importance China attaches to Taiwan. The PLA Daily identifies the missiles as belonging to China’s Second Artillery Corps.
        The publication comes weeks before the May 20 inauguration of Taiwanese President Chen. (Article, Link) 

» NYT, May 5, 2004: China displays warships in Hong Kong harbor

» More stories on: China, Taiwan

» Missile details: CSS-6

North Korea: No Nukes to Terrorists

In an effort to curry good well from the United States, North Korea has recently pledged to not sell nuclear materials to terrorist groups. But such an interest in negotiating is almost certainly a façade, aimed at shoring up its ability to proliferate missiles and weapons of mass destruction with impunity. Even while making the pledge, however, North Korean deputy to Kim Jong Il Kim Yong-nam, insisted in an interview that they “are entitled to sell missiles to earn foreign exchange.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea, Proliferation

North Korea Building More Bases for “New” Missiles

North Korea is currently building additional bases for mobile intermediate range missiles with a range of 4,000km which are capable of reaching Hawaii, reports the South Korean Chosun Ilbo newspaper. United States intelligence satellites have identified some 10 new ballistic missiles and launchers at two locations which were not their previously, said an unidentified official: “One of the new bases was in Yangdok, 80 kilometers east of the capital Pyongyang, and the other was in Hochon in South Hamgyong province, the official said.” The same source noted that “these bases are assumed to be the bases for new ballistic missiles and not for Scuds or Ro Dong-1 missiles.”
        The Chosun Ilbo reports further that these new missiles may be of Russian origin:

The new ballistic missile is presumed to be a modified model of the former Soviet Union’s SS-N-6 submarine-launched ballistic missile, and was originally expected to be revealed to the public at the 9 September festival [founding anniversary of the DPRK] in 2003. North Korea, however, only moved 10 of these missiles and five mobile launching pads to the Mirim Airport, where the parade was prepared, but did not actually show them during the parade.

This missile is 12 metres long and 1.5 metres wide, and is thus shorter than the Ro Dong-1 (15 metres long) and Taepo Dong-1 (23 metres), but its range is much longer and is evaluated to be more advanced in technology.

Relevant authorities believe that former Soviet missile scientists may have directly participated in the development or at least Russian technology was utilized in [the building of the] missile, whose development started in the early 1990s and whose existence was first confirmed by ROK and US intelligence authorities in 2000.

 (Article, Link) 

» Description of new missile, “No-Dong B”

» Chosun Ilbo text, via Financial Times (subscription)

» More stories on: North Korea, Proliferation, Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-6

Sudan Orders Syrian Missiles, WMDs Removed

Arab diplomatic and Sudanese government sources report that Sudanese President Omar Bashir has ordered the Scud C and Scud D ballistic missiles originally from Syria be removed from Sudan, as well as chemical weapons materials stored in Khartoum.
        The Syrian missiles wer