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Patriot Batteries To Go To South Korea

The United States will be adding to its Patriot interceptors in South Korea, with two additional batteries of Patriot Advanced Capability 2 and 3, according to a press release by the US and South Korean Combined Forces Command in Seoul. The batteries will be added at Gwangju Air Base, with the U.S. Eighth Army’s 35th Air Defense Brigade.
        Six Patriot batteries were stationed in South Korea’s major bases since 1994. A battery is composed of eight launchers of PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles, each having 4 and 16 interceptors, respectively.
        In 1998, North Korea fired a Taepo-Dong I missile over Japan.  (Article, Link) 

» May 6: KCNA news agency, Pyongyang: U.S. to deploy Patriots against North Korea “escalated military threat”

» May 4: EastAsia Intel report on Patriot xfer

» More stories on: Land-Based Systems, North Korea

» Missile details: Taep'o-dong 1

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2), Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

THEL Tested at White Sands

A test of the joint U.S.-Israeli anti-missile laser Nautilus was successfully conducted on April 30 at the White Sands U.S. Army base in New Mexico, reports the Jeruslaem Post. The Nautilus test was part of the umbrella THEL (Tactical High Energy Laser) project.
        The primary objective of locating the missile and tracking it was accomplished, though the secondary objective, to destroy it, was not attempted, according to an Army press release.
        The mobile version of the THEL has already been effective against short range Soviet-origin Katyusha rockets which are often fired at Israel from across the Lebanese border by Hezbollah groups. The THEL is expected to be battlefield ready by 2007.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: High Energy Defenses, Israel, Testing - American, Testing - Foreign

» Missile system details for: Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)

Russia Develops Longer Range S-300 Interceptor

Russia has developed a new version of its S-300 air and missile defense interceptor missile with an extended range, reports the Middle East Newsline, which it will be putting on the market for several Middle Eastern and Asian nations.
        The newsline cites Russian Air Marshal Vladimir Mikhailov, commander of the Russian Air Force, as saying that the newer version gives the S-300 missile added missile defense capabilities. The S-300 interceptor has already been said to be superior to the American PAC-3 (Patriot) interceptor, which was recently successful at intercepting Scuds and other missiles in the 2003 Iraq war.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant)

Hackett on the KEI

Writing in the Washington Times, James T. Hackett worries about the direction the Missile Defense Agency is taking by pursuing programs such as the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI), a land-based boost phase system, while ignoring the technologies available for space-based systems like Brilliant Pebbles.
        Hackett also responds to MDA Director Kadish’s statement this week that because the Alaska ground-based interceptor and the Aegis sea-based deployments are on schedule, the United States would be fully protected from North Korea by the end of the year. Hackett responds that North Korea is believed to already have 8 nuclear weapons and to be producing more at the rate of 4-8 per year.
        Hackett argues that the KEI program diverts attention and resources from better programs and undermines better directed efforts:

Under Mr. Bush’s father, this concept [Brilliant Pebbles] was studied extensively, was found feasible, and much development work was done. Last year, that program was expected to receive $6 billion for further development over the next five years. That amount now has been cut to $843 million, with only $11 million for 2005. At the same time, more than $4.5 billion has been reallocated to the KEI program.

        Hackett points out that the object of the KEI, to intercept a missile in boost phase, is much better accomplished from space than from land. But the funds being poured into KEI should signal a greater warning to the future of effective missile defenses: “Worst of all, the KEI program is under Terry Little, a former Air Force official who allegedly said at a conference last year he is proud to be a liberal Democrat, missile defense skeptic, and opponent of weapons in space.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Land-Based Systems, Policy

» Missile system details for: Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)

Center for Security Policy on BMD Budget, KEI

The Center for Security Policy weighs in on the fights in Congress over missile defense appropriations, with some harsh criticism of the current distribution of funds. The problem is the support of systems like the ground-based Kinetic Energy Interceptor, which is absorbing billions each year depriving far more effective programs from seeing the light of day.

        Illustrating the limitations of the KEI, the Center notes that:

In fact, KEI program manager Terry Little, has produced a chart which notes, with considerable understatement, that a “Risk Item” is the fact that “Geo-Political Basing Constraints are a Driver of KEI Military Utility.” Just how much so is revealed by Mr. Little’s assessment that in order to secure coverage of Iranian ICBM launch sites, the U.S. would have to deploy KEI systems in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan. Similar coverage of North Korea would require KEI deployments in Russia. Recent experience with at least some of these countries suggests that they may prove to be unreliable, or at the very least insecure, basing countries.

        At the same time that funding for the KEI is up, to 4.2 billion, programs such as Aegis, THAAD, and most importantly space-based interceptors, are being neglected.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Land-Based Systems, Policy

» Missile system details for: Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)

New CIA Report on North Korea: “At Least 8” Nuclear Weapons

An upcoming intelligence report by the CIA will substantially up estimates of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal upwards, – from “possibly two” nuclear weapons to at least eight, reports the Washington Post.
        The report will also likely reflect a growing intelligence consensus that a distinct North Korean uranium-enrichment program will be operational by 2007 that will be capable of producing material for an additional six weapons per year.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons

MDA: Low-Earth Orbit Missile Tracker Six Months Ahead of Schedule

Citing an April 13 report from the Missile Defense Agency, Inside Missile Defense says that the Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS), a $3 billion low-earth orbit satellite scanning system that tracks ballistic missiles in space, passed an important design review last December and is six months ahead of schedule.
        The STSS is mounted with two infrared sensors, “a wide-view acquisition sensor for boost phase detection and a narrow-view sensor that tracks delivery vehicles through the middle of their trajectories in space.”
        Two STSS satellites are expected to be launched in 2007, after the “integration” of the pair of sensors begins in 2005. (Link) 

» More stories on: Space-Based Systems, Detection and Tracking

» Missile system details for: Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS)

Russia Sending S-300 Interceptors to Belarus

Russia will be supplying Belarus with an unknown number of additional S-300 air and missile defense interceptors, said Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, as reported by the Russian Interfax news agency. The S-300 is described by the Russia Journal as having a range of 100km. (Article, Link) 

» Rosbalt on Russian-Belarussian S-300 transfer

» Russia Journal on S-300 transfer

» More stories on: Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant)

Kyl Says Democrats’ Amendments Would Stifle Missile Defense

At a breakfast sponsored by the National Defense University Foundation yesterday, Republican Senator Jon Kyl, of Arizona, warned that Democrats plan to put the brakes on the development of missile defense in upcoming budget battles on the FY-2005 national defense authorization bill and the defense appropriations bill, according to a report in Inside Missile Defense.
        Kyl said the Democrats’ opposition to missile defense, grounded in the belief that appropriations should go to either missile defense or counterterrorism - but not both, presents a “false dichotomy.”
        “I suspect the Democrats are trying to get to the right of the president for the war on terror, but they will try to take money from missile defense not adequately defended by Republicans or the president,” Kyl remarked. “But you can have both.”
        He also noted the importance of a “layered” defense, allowing missiles to be shot down during boost, midcourse, and terminal phases, and a “greater focus” on the role of a space component of missile defense.
        Michigan Senate Democrat Carl Levin, ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, is reported to be leading the opposition to missile defense spending in hopes to derail $500 million for missile interceptors. Citing a General Accouting Office report, Levin said the program suffers from “testing shortfalls,” and alleged violations of acquisition laws. (Link) 

» More stories on: Budget, Policy

Mobile-Launched, BMD-Resistant Topol-M ICBM Ready by 2006

One week after Russia test launched a mobile-launched Topol-M ICBM, Yuriy Solomonov, the director of the Moscow Institute of Heat Technology said in an interview with the ITAR-TASS news agency that the mobile launched version would be ready for deployment by 2006. The mobile launch capabiity serves the purpose of making it difficult for the United States to know where Russia’s missiles are at any given time, and thus make it more difficult to defend against them.
        BBC also reports that on April 26 Radio Mayak in Moscow carried a description of the Topol-M’s resistance to American missile defenses, part of which was the following:

The Topol-M currently has a 60 percent chance of overcoming US air defence systems and this will rise to 87 percent, partly because it is very hard to find the mobile launchers. They can travel, camouflaged from satellites, along ordinary roads so that a missile can be launched from any location while interception becomes considerably more difficult. In addition, each mobile-launched Topol-M will have from four to six nuclear warheads as well as several dummy targets.

 (Article, Link) 

» Transcript of Russian radio discussion of Topol M (subscription)

» SpaceDaily: Mobile Topol-M Deployment by 2006

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-27

Russia: Space a Clear Interest

Vladimir Putin told the Russian space sector leadership today that space activity is key to Russia’s development, reports Rosbalt news.
        Putin, Rosbalt notes, said that the development of space unquestionably plays an important role in national security, economic growth and increased competitiveness.
        In a January 2001 special session of the Defense Council, Russia’s space policies were reportedly discussed as both strategic and practical goals to strengthen Russia’s position in the world. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Space-Based Systems

Bolton: Russia, China, Iran Violating Non-Proliferation Treaty

Speaking to the annual meeting of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty at the United Nations, Undersecretary of State John Bolton warned of a “crisis of noncompliance” by Russia, China, and Iran. Addressing the meeting of NPT signatories, he said that

The time for business as usual is over. An irresponsible handful of nations not living up to their treaty commitments are undermining the NPT’s mission. Without full compliance by all NPT members, confidence in the NPT as a nonproliferation instrument erodes.

        Bolton emphasized the danger posed from Iran’s own nuclear weapon’s program, which the country continues to disavow: “It is clear that the primary role of Iran’s ‘nuclear power’ program is to serve as a cover and a pretext for the import of nuclear technology and expertise that can be used to support nuclear weapons development…Iran is lying.” “If we permit Iran’s deception to go on much longer, it will be too late,” Bolton said; “Iran will have nuclear weapons.”
        Russia has played a key role in aiding in the production of Iran’s nuclear “energy” programs.
        Last week, Bush said that the development of a nuclear weapon by Iran would be “intolerable.” (Article, Link) 

» Bolton: Iran is lying

» More stories on: Iran, Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation

McNamara: Nuclear Threat From Russia Still Exists

Writing in the LA Times, former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, who helped make mutually assured destruction U.S. policy in 1962, notes that Russia still remians a serious threat to the United States. A nuclear attack from Russia remains a very real scenario, he and co-author Helin Caldicott noted, “whether by accident, human fallibility or malfeasance.” McNamara and Caldicott go on to argue that this means the United States should pursue disarmament. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Kadish: U.S. Protected from North Korea by End of Year

Lt. Gen. Ron Kadish, director of the Missile Defense Agency, told reporters on Tuesday that by the end of the year, the United States should be able to defend against a North Korean ballistic missile attack, after the activation of ground-based interceptors in Alaska and California.
        Two more tests of the interceptors are set for this year, with one expected in late spring or early summer.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea, Policy

Russia Tests Topol-M ICBM

Russia has test-launched a mobile-launched Topol-M (RS-12M2) missile today, Russia’s most advanced ICBM. The Topol-M is already currently deployed, but not on a mobile launcher.
        The missile was fired from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in northern Russia and was directed into the center of the Pacific Ocean. Russian Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov said at a conference with President Putin that the launch was similar to the one carried out last winter at Plesetsk, and that one more launch remains before a decision is made about transferring the mobile launchers into service. Ivanov also noted that the test was of the missile’s maximum range, of 11,500km. Putin responded that the launch was an “important event for the armed forces of Russia.”  (More »»») 

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-27

Air Force to Spend $4 Billion on Space-Based Radar Through FY-09

Inside Missile Defense reports that the Air Force will increase spending on the Space-Based Radar (SBR) program to total over $4 billion through fiscal year 2009, the year the radar program is expected to begin production. The current year will see $173 spent on radar research and development, and the Air Force has asked for $328 for FY 2005. FY-06 will be allocated $466 million by the Air Force, $503 million for FY-07, $1.2 billion in FY-08, and $1.5 billion in FY-09.
        Raytheon and Northrop Grumman have already began work on the system’s sensor payload, and Science Applications International Corporation is contracted for SBR engineering and integration work. Inside Missile Defense also notes that the Defense Science Board is examining a possible role for the SBR program in missile defense. (Link) 

» More stories on: Space-Based Systems

Fylingdales Radar Revamp Begins

Work has begun on the upgrades for Britain’s Royal Air Force radar station at Fylingdales, to better incorporate it into the American missile defense system. The technological upgrades include faster computers and related systems. The radar system will be an important part of the detection and tracking of potential missile launches. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Technology

Libya to Renounce Long Range Missiles, Proliferation Ties with North Korea; To Shorten Scud-B Range

Libya has apparently renounced its long-range missiles and turned its inventory them over to the United States, including its Scud-C, but will keep shorter range Scud-B’s for “self defense” purposes, reports the New York Times. In March Libya sent five Scud-C missiles with a range of 800 kilometers to the United States.
        Libya’s Russian-made Scud-B’s which have a range of 300 kilometers, or about 185 miles, and warheads with a payload of 1,000 kilograms, or 2,200 pounds, of explosives. The number of Scud-B’s bought from Moscow is unclear, but is said to be in the hundreds. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Libya

» Missile details: Scud B variant

Aegis to Continue to Evolve

The Aegis cruiser based missile interceptor will continue to evolve its capabilities, Lockheed Martin reports. The sea-based system will have a designed-in “open architecture” to permit technological improvements and updates. (Article, Link) 

» Update: May 7, 2004: Lockheed has two open architecture plans

» More stories on: Sea-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Kahn Claims to Have Seen North Korean Nuclear Weapons

Abdul Kahn, widely known as the “father of the Pakistani Bomb” who spearheaded that country’s nuclear program and the proliferation of nuclear technology around the world, has now claimed to have seen and inspected three nuclear devices during a visit to North Korea to aid in their nuclear program, according to the New York Times. The report would be the first such verification by a foreigner of North Korea’s long touted possession of such weapons.
        The story has the potential to support the exoneration of Pakistan as a sort of willing partner in the war on nuclear and missile proliferation. Khan and Pakistan, like Qaddafi and Libya, might seem to have fully repented and become an reliable informant or ally for the United States. But that which led to Pakistan-Korth Korea nuclear cooperation and which would prompt North Korea to trust Kahn with an inspection in the first place should be the ground for continued suspicion of both now.
        Although Kahn may well have ulterior motives to bolster North Korea’s nuclear threat to the West, that North Korea already has had for some time some nuclear weapons is quite plausible. That it would, however, should serve as a reminder of the failure of the 1994 Accord with North Korea negotiated by the Clinton administration—as well as our previous ill-placed trust in the Pakistani government, which despite its fervent denials almost certainly had to be apartied to such high level transfers of technology. The lesson of the failed policy of appeasement with both these countries should perhaps inform the current negotiations as well. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan, Proliferation

Spring on 9-11 and Missile Defense

Baker Spring of the Heritage Foundation weighs in on the recent debate over whether missile defense was too much a priority prior to September 11. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

Israel Doubling Range of Arrow-2

Israel has nearly doubled the intercept range of the Arrow-2 missile defense interceptor, reports the Middle East Newsline. The current altitude range is said to be over 200,000 feet, or 60 kilometers, as confirmed by a December 16, 2003 test against a Scud-D medium-range missile. The upgrades will be integrated into Israel’s two deployed Arrow-2 batteries. (Link) 

» Being contract for Arrow 2 interceptors

» More stories on: Israel

» Missile system details for: Arrow

Kadish to Retire in September

The Missile Defense Agency announced that its Director, Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish, will retire on September 1st, and that President Bush has nominated Air Force Major General Henry “Trey” Obering, MDA’s current Deputy Director to take his place, provided he is confirmed by the Senate. (Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Phillips on Missile Defense as No Distraction

Some opponents to missile defense brand it a distraction from the war on terrorism. Such arguments were made after the revelation that NSA Condoleezza Rice had planned a missile defense speech for September 11, 2001.
        James A. Phillips of the Heritage Foundation responds to such assertions, noting that serious attention to terrorism does not exclude serious attention to missile defense. (Article, Link) 

Holton on the Logic of Rice’s Would-Be Speech on Missile Defense

Christopher Holton writes at Worldtribune.com on the criticisms NSA Rice has been receiving for her would be speech on missile defense. Holton correctly observes that such criticisms stem from, or are at least only consistent with, a faith in untenable policy of mutually assured destruction, but also points to statements by various prominent opponents of missile defense which contradict the basic suppositions for such a policy. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

U.S., Russia Preparing to Sign Missile Defense Agreement

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov in Oslo reported that the U.S. and Russia are preparing to sign an agreement which would provide Russia access to U.S. missile defense technologies, and vice versa, and become a basis for the development of a joint missile defense system. Ivanov spoke of missile tracking systems, but indicated actual development could also take place. The comments came amidst his confirming that Russia would cooperate with the Bush Administration’s Proliferation Security Initiative, designed to intercept weapons of mass destruction and missiles before they can be transferred to, from, or between rogue states.
        One might well be suspicious of such cooperation with Russia. Agreements which would narrowly limit limit U.S. missile defenses or make their technologies intimate knowledge of Russia—and anyone Russia chose to give the information to—would effectively return us to a situation very similar to that under the ABM Treaty: namely, that America would not be able to defend against the arsenals of Russia and China. Anything which limits American missile defenses and prevents their becoming truly strategic defenses—a policy for which Russia has repeatedly called for since it became obvious the US would withdraw from the Treaty—will effectively maintain the Cold War policy of mutually assured destruction. True, limited defenses would not involve rogue states in such a policy of MAD, but it would remain essentially intact with regard to Russia and China.  (Article, Link) 

» Apr. 21, 2001: Russia favors non-strategic missile defense

» More stories on: Policy, Russia

Miniter on Rice and Missile Defense

Brendan Miniter of OpinionJournal.com writes on the situation facing National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, and why the criticism of the administration’s position on missile defense is very misplaced. That terrorism is a great threat no one will contest, but the bigger picture of national security also requires significant attention to missile defense. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

Center for Security Policy on Rice and Missile Defense

The Center for Security Policy has released a fine position piece pointing out that the charges against Condoleezza Rice and the administration’s alleged emphasis on missile defense at the expense of terrorism are quite wrong headed. The logic of Rice’s speech intended for 9-11 retains its integrity and applicability even today. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

Russia Tests Tochka-U SRBM in Siberia

Russia has today conducted a test launch in the Trans-Baykal region of the short range Tochka-U ballistic missile. The test was part of Command Post Exercises in the Siberian Military District, and the missile successfully destroyed the hypothetical enemy’s command post. The Tochka-U, which is offered for export, is a version of the SS-21 (“Scarab B”) with a composite fuel, and an extended range of of 120 km. The Russian RIA news agency reports that the unit which tested the SS-21 today has alone had over 60 successful combat launches. (Article, Link) 

» FT: Russian preparing six launches of target missiles

» BBC report of launch

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-21 B

U.S. to Sell Defensive Radar to Taiwan; China Denounces

Taiwan is preparing to buy a long-range ground-based early-warning radar from the United States which would allow Taiwan to detect Chinese missile launches.
        Since the announcement of the sale on Tuesday, China has been attacking the sale, worth some 1.78 billion. “We have always opposed US sales of advanced weapons to Taiwan,” said Kong Quan, a foreign ministry spokesman. A State Department spokesman defended the sale by noting that the radars are “inherently defensive.” The sale had originally been approved by the Clinton administration in 1999.
        China’s irritation stems from the fact that any effective defenses which could be used to deter China could then be use to assure a formal declaration of independence by the island.  (Article, Link) 

» Financial Times on Taiwan sale, Chinese denunciation

» Apr. 1, 2004: Taiwan establishes Missile Command

» More stories on: China, Taiwan

Taiwan Missile Development in Response to Chinese Buildup

Taiwan is reportedly planning to produce 150 missiles capable of striking targets within China, according to a recent issue of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets—30 medium-range and 120 short-range—which will be based on Taiwan’s existing Tien Kung surface-to air missile. Taiwan may also produce some 500 land-attack cruise missiles with a range of 1,500 km, which would be based on the existing Hsiung Feng (Brave Wind) anti-ship missile.
        The effort is said to take place over the next decade, which means that by the time the force is deployed, it would still be dwarfed by that of Communist China. Currently, China has at least 500 short-range missiles near Taiwan alone (distinct from its longer range missiles aimed at the United States), and continues its buildup at the rate of 75 additional missiles per year. Supposing China does not increase the rate of its short-range missile buildup, there would be some 1250 missiles offshore Taiwan within the same ten years. Nevertheless, Taiwan’s own missile development is salutary, and should conduce to both deterring mainland China and the defense of Taiwanese independence.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Taiwan

Nuclear Threat from Possible North Korea-Al Qaeda Union

Military commanders testifying before the House Armed Services Committee warned of possible nuclear transfers from North Korea to terrorist groups, notes Bill Gertz writing in the Washington Times.
        Adm. Thomas B. Fargo, leader of the U.S. Pacific Command, said of al Qaeda that “They have the will and the skill, obviously, to carry out a devastating terrorist attack. So that is kind of a nightmare scenario, and that’s why we feel so strongly about a nonnuclear Korean Peninsula.
        Army Gen. Leon J. LaPorte, commander of U.S. forces in Korea, observed that a nuclear-armed North Korea

threatens the entire Northeast Asia region as well as other nations in the Pacific…In addition, they’re a known proliferator of missiles, missiles technology, narcotics and other illegal activities. What’s to prevent North Korea from deciding to sell to other nations or terrorist organizations nuclear-grade — weapons-grade material? That’s a significant concern to all of us. …I agree totally with Admiral Fargo that a nuclear weapon in the hands of a terrorist organization is one of our greatest concerns. And given the history of North Korea relative to selling missiles and missile technology, it’s a concern we must address.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea, Terrorism