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Obama Pledges Cuts in Missile Defense, Space, and Nuclear Weapons Programs

A video has surfaced of Presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama talking on his plans for strategic issues such as nuclear weapons and missile defense. 

 

The full text from the video, as released, reads as follows:

 

Thanks so much for the Caucus4Priorities, for the great work you've been doing. As president, I will end misguided defense policies and stand with Caucus4Priorities in fighting special interests in Washington.

 

First, I'll stop spending $9 billion a month in Iraq. I'm the only major candidate who opposed this war from the beginning. And as president I will end it.

Second, I will cut tens of billions of dollars in wasteful spending.

I will cut investments in unproven missile defense systems.

 

I will not weaponize space.

 

I will slow our development of future combat systems.

 

And I will institute an independent "Defense Priorities Board" to ensure that the Quadrennial Defense Review is not used to justify unnecessary spending.

 

Third, I will set a goal of a world without nuclear weapons. To seek that goal, I will not develop new nuclear weapons; I will seek a global ban on the production of fissile material; and I will negotiate with Russia to take our ICBMs off hair-trigger alert, and to achieve deep cuts in our nuclear arsenals.

 

You know where I stand. I've fought for open, ethical and accountable government my entire public life. I don't switch positions or make promises that can't be kept. I don't posture on defense policy and I don't take money from federal lobbyists for powerful defense contractors. As president, my sole priority for defense spending will be protecting the American people. Thanks so much.

 (Article, Link) 

» Video of Senator Obama discussing strategic issues, from YouTube

Cooper and Weyrich: Make Navy Missile Defense All It Can Be

Ambassador Henry F. Cooper and Paul M. Weyrich write today explaining the significance for missile defense of the February 20 shoot-down of a satellite using sea-based missile defense systems.  Writing for the National Ledger, they observe that "any ballistic missile defense (BMD) system that can shoot down long-range Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) also has the potential to shoot down satellites in low-earth-orbit (LEO)—such satellites travel slightly faster than ICBMs and move in similar altitudes above the earth...which leads one to ponder why sea-based defenses have not been empowered to intercept such long-range ballistic missiles."

 

Expanding further, the authors point out that sea-based missile defense assets are inherently mobile and can therefore minimize the effects of dangerous fall-out.  While the two credit President Bush for withdrawing from the ABM treaty and laying the legal framework for the navy to conduct its interception, they caution that further steps must be taken to ensure the navy can intercept more than just short range missiles. They conclude that the modest spending on new software to equip the ships with the capability to shoot down the satellite is not only justified, but should be dramatically expanded. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis

Hackett: Iran's Missile Leap

James T. Hackett discusses Russia's reaction to Iran's recent missile launch in the February 25 edition of Washington Times.  On February 4, Iran launched a modified "Shahab-3B" medium-range missile, designed to launch Iran's first domestically produced satellite, Omid-1, into orbit. An Iranian reconnaissance satellite could help missiles target sites in Israel, U.S. bases in the Middle East, and most importantly Europe or North America itself. Indeed, Iran's launch is eerily reminiscent of North Korea's 1998 launch of a 3-stage Taepodong missile, "which [Pyongyang] also claimed was for launching satellites."  Even the Russians, who have shied away from tightening sanctions on Iran and have criticized the U.S.'s plan for a limited missile defense system in Europe, were concerned. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, "We do not approve of Iran's actions in constantly demonstrating its intentions to develop its rocket sector and in continuing to enrich uranium," while Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said Tehran's actions "provoke concern" and raise "suspicions" about its claim not to be building a nuclear weapon, since a long-range rocket is a key component of any nation's nuclear weapons capability. Given Iran's continued missile testing and improvements, Hackett concludes by stressing that Congress must fund the planned missile defense site planned for Eastern Europe. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Iran, Russia

Carey: Rocket Science Reprieve

John E. Carey, a former senior military officer who served in President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) and president of International Defense Consultants, Inc, writes in the February 24 edition of the Washington Times on the U.S. Navy's recent interception of a dying spy satellite. The successful interception marks a new milestone toward achieving President Ronald Reagan's dream of a missile defense system. While Ronald Reagan formed his policy during the Cold War, "the threat posed by missile-launched weapons of mass destruction clearly still exists."  Carey writes:

 

Russia still has a robust nuclear and missile arsenal. Add to that China. North Korea has demonstrated advancing missile and nuclear weapon technology. Pakistan and India have nuclear arsenals and long-range missiles. Iran has long-range missiles and the United Nations argues over how far Iran has advanced its nuclear weapon efforts. Terrorists have boasted they will have nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction that can soon wipe out Israel and threaten Europe and the U.S. Missile defense, the vision of Ronald Reagan and source of America's ability to destroy a potentially dangerous satellite, remains viable, important and necessary.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis

Tellis: Don't Panic About Space Weapons

Ashley J. Tellis, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, analyzest the Chinese and Russian draft treaty aimed at banning weapons in space in the February 22 edition of the Wall Street Journal.  Tellis argues that the treaty would in fact

 

neither effectively prohibit their deployment, nor conclusively annul the threat of force against space objects. It would only produce the illusion of security, while doing nothing to eliminate the counterspace capabilities currently present in many countries, especially China.

 

The principal problem is the treaty addresses weapons in space (of which there are none), as opposed to land- and sea-based kinetic, directed-energy and electromagnetic attack systems. However, even a retooled treaty to expand arms control regulation for these systems would miss the mark as "counterspace weapons are impossible to identify by national technical means, or even by intrusive inspections." An outright ban on these weapons would be unlikely given political considerations, and a treaty that allowed the development and deployment of these weapons but not their use would be open to abuse. Tellis argues that China and Russia support the draft treaty because of three political and strategic reasons.

 

First, they genuinely fear an imminent American deployment of space weapons—perhaps in connection with missile defense— and want a treaty to impede that deployment...Second, a space security treaty allows Russia and China to engage in some eye-catching histrionics. It enables them to dominate international public diplomacy and paint the U.S. as the irresponsible driver of a new arms race... Third, the Russian-Chinese draft treaty remains a splendid way for Beijing to draw international attention away from its own growing counterspace program—even as it enables Russia to assuage its own discomfort with China's space-denial capabilities.

 

Tellis concludes that the Bush administration is correct to reject this treaty, and encourages any new presidential administration to do the same. (Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Space-Based Systems, Russia, China

Aegis Interceptor Successfully Destroys Satellite

The United States military reports the successful downing of a disable spy satellite using a specially modified sea-based SM-3 missile defense interceptor.  The main purpose of the intercept was to destroy the fuel tank, which contained  toxic hydrazine, before the ailing satellite reentered the earth's atmosphere.  The successful intercept represents tests of both the sea-based Aegis missile defense system and a test of American anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities. 

 

Without the military's intervention, the satellite would have reentered the atmosphere and fallen to Earth during the first week in March, and an area of several hundred miles could have been contaminated with its hydrazine fuel.

 

The SM-3 interceptor underwent software modifications to allow it to hit the satellite instead of a ballistic missile, which would have had a slightly different trajectory. The mission comes nearly a year after a controversial Chinese anti-satellite test, in which Beijing used a missile to destroy an old weather satellite. The Chinese test drew widespread international concern, and also created a considerable amount of space debris.  The American satellite destruction, by contrast, created a minimum amount of debris.   (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Space-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Keuter on Flaws of Proposed Space Treaty

Jeff Kueter, president of the George C. Marshall Institute, writes in the February 20 edition of USA Today on the problematic character of the proposed space-weapons treaty put forward by China and Russia.  Keuter notes that such an agreement would neither be verifiable nor enforceable, and that it is furthemore not in America's national security interests.  While Russia and China have maintained their own clandestine anti-satellite programs, the treaty appears to be a means to limit American advances to use space for national defense.  The full text of Kueter's piece:

 

Few criticize the U.S. decision to attempt the destruction of a fully fueled, disabled spy satellite before it crashes to Earth. Using missile-defense assets to further minimize the risk of harm is commendable. But some question our motives and claim we are shooting at the satellite to demonstrate an anti-satellite (ASAT) capability, not to protect lives and property, and they call for an international treaty to ban weapons in space.

 

As it has for the past 50 years, the United States should resist calls for a new space treaty. Space is routinely used for military purposes, and the integration of space-based intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance into tactical military operations offers clear incentives for attacking U.S. spacecraft.

 

A ban is neither enforceable nor verifiable. Cold War-era space arms control efforts faltered when they could not reach agreement on what constitutes a space weapon. The U.S. space shuttle was viewed as a space weapon by the Soviets. The Chinese used a standard ballistic missile topped with a sophisticated warhead in their January 2007 ASAT test, but a treaty capable of eliminating the missiles is improbable, as is verifying the destruction of the warhead or the capacity to reproduce it in the future.

 

Electronic warfare - blinding satellites with lasers or jamming of information sent from space - presents a widespread and immediate challenge to the United States, but attributing the source is difficult, and the capabilities draw upon technologies readily available for other purposes.

 

Russian and Chinese efforts to advance a new treaty provide cover for their self-serving attempts to constrain the United States, while doing nothing to restrict their own clandestine ASAT programs. In the past several years, the Chinese military successfully executed at least two ASAT tests, while their diplomatic corps raged against the supposed weaponization of space by the United States.

Those who suggest that such an agreement would protect U.S. interests have yet to explain why others would abandon the capability to hold at risk the most vulnerable elements of American military power. A restraint on space weaponry, far from keeping the heavens safe, instead leaves them vulnerable to 9/11-style space terrorism.

 (Article, Link) 

Ranks of Nuclear Experts Dwindle

Two leading scientific groups cautioned February 16 that the U.S. may face a severe shortage of nuclear experts over the next 15 years.  The American Physical Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science speculate that half of the U.S.'s experts in identifying smuggled nuclear materials and detonated-bomb components will retire, and the pipeline of young researchers who could replace them is "almost empty." A credible supply of nuclear forensics experts can deter nuclear proliferators who are "primarily motivated by financial, rather than ideological, concerns." The scientists recommended the U.S. deploy faster and more accurate field equipment, create a comprehensive sample-matching database of nuclear materials, fund more graduate school and laboratory positions in related disciplines and establish a panel of independent experts to measure progress and advise the U.S. government in case of an emergency. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons

Russia Threatens Ukraine

Russia has now added Ukraine to the list of countries it has threatened with nuclear retaliation for cooperation with the United States missile defense system. 

 

Speaking at the Kremlin February 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko addressed the contentious issues of Ukraine joining NATO or allowing the U.S. to station components of a missile defense system on its soil.  Putin said, "It is frightening not only to say but even to think that Russia, in response to the emergence of such positioning areas on Ukrainian territory, which cannot be ruled out in theory, will target its offensive missile systems at Ukraine...Can you imagine that for a second? That is what we are concerned about." 

 

Yushchenko responded that he understood a number of "sensitive issues" would emerge from Ukrainian membership in NATO, but hoped they could be discussed with openness and trust. The leaders were meeting in Moscow to hold urgent talks over a gas dispute. Ukraine agreed to pay $1.5 billion to the Russian gas company Gazprom in return for a freeze in the price of gas exports to Ukraine. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Investor's Business Daily: From Russia with Love

An editorial in the February 13 edition of Investor's Business Daily discusses Russia's military resurgence and hostility to the West. The editorial notes that after a decade of seeming irrelevance, Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun to rebuild the country's tarnished status as a global power.  Flush with revenue from high oil and gas prices, Russia has "spen[t] heavily on the new Tu-160 supersonic strategic bomber, which can launch cruise missiles; the Su-34 Fullback all-weather fighter-bomber designed to attack heavily defended targets; and a fifth-generation fighter, the Sukhoi T-50, scheduled to become Russia's front-line fighter in 2008. " On February 9, Russian fighters intercepted a U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Russia also has resumed its long range bomber patrols. The editorial concludes by suggesting the current Democratic presidential hopefuls could not face this strategic challenge. "Will an Obama or a Clinton have the courage Reagan showed when he deployed Pershing missiles in West Germany in response to the Soviet SS-20 threat? Not likely. More probably we will see what Barack Obama calls "aggressive personal diplomacy," by which we bargain away our missile defense for a handful of beads while making nice with the thugs who plan to launch missiles against us." (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Analysis

Pakistan Tests Hatf-3

Pakistan today tested a ballistic missile, this time the short range Hatf-3 (Ghaznavi) with a range of 290 kilometers.  The location of the test was not disclosed, but it was said to have concluded the Pakistani Strategic Force Command's winter training.  The test marks the third ballistic missile test over the past three weeks.  The launch was attended by caretaker Prime Minister Mohammedmian Soomro and Army Chief Ashfaq Kayani, with additional details said to be released at a later time. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - Foreign, Pakistan

» Missile details: Hatf 3

Remembering Robert Jastrow

Dr. Robert Jastrow, Chairman Emeritus of the George C. Marshall Institute passed away on February 8, 2008.  Dr. Jastrow was a scientist, a prolific author and public commentator on national security and enviornmental issues.  A summary of his life's work and achievements has been released by the George Marshall Institute.  Full text below: (More »»») 

U.S. Trying to Surround Russia, Lavrov Says

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sharply criticized the U.S.'s strategy to deploy a global missile defense, suggesting it is meant primarily to encircle and contain Russia.  "If we look at a map, it's clear that all of it is concentrating around our borders," he said, according to the Associated Press. "More likely in the near future, we are going to hear about hundreds, and maybe even thousands, of interceptors in various regions of the planet, including Europe." Foreign Minister Lavrov made his statement as the U.S. is negotiating with Poland and the Czech Republic to deploy a missile defense system based in those two countries. Foreign Minister Lavrov said, "[What is] dangerous for us is the trend of American infrastructure getting closer to our borders. We don't see any justification for this step...We are talking openly with the Americans about our fears. If the plan goes through, we are going to be forced to respond adequately, developing our strategic forces near our borders." Russian President Vladimir Putin added later, "We drew down our bases in Cuba and Vietnam. What did we get? New American bases in Romania, Bulgaria. A new third missile defense region in Poland, where it's being built." (Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Moscow to Deploy S-400 in Northwest Russia

Lieutenant General Vladimir Sviridov announced Russia will replace S-300 air and missile defense systems with the advanced S-400 model to the country's northwest. The S-400 system can intercept and destroy airborne targets, including stealth aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, up to 3,500 kilometers away at speeds up to 4.8 kilometers per second. The S-400 will comprise the backbone of Russia's theater air defense through 2020 or 2025. The S-400 systems will now defend the northwest of the country in addition to Moscow and various industrial zones in central Russia. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-400 (SA-20 Triumf)

Dale on Forward Progress

In today's edition of the Washington Times, Helle Dale writes supporting the U.S. plan to emplace ten Ground Based Interceptors in Poland and an X-band radar facility in the Czech Republic. If constructed, the new Eastern European facilities would buttress current missile defense-related systems in the United Kingdom, Greenland and the United States. Dale discusses that while the plan would shield the U.S. and Europe from limited missile attacks from Iran or any of the other 27 states armed with ballistic missiles, many Europeans have rallied against the plan. The critics argue that the bases would provoke Russia, which fears the interceptors would diminish its strategic nuclear deterrent, and worsen trans-Atlantic relations for a non-existent strategic gain. Dale stresses that the ten interceptors could not shield Europe or the U.S. from a Russian missile attack. Additionally, a missile defenses by definition should not be a threat to anyone.  Fortunately, despite the criticisms, Polish and U.S. negotiators have agreed "in principle" to place the interceptors in the Eastern European country. Dale concludes the development is positive, and hopefully points to a speedy conclusion and deployment of the system. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: European Missile Defenses, Analysis

Space Launch Vehicle Test May Demonstrate Iranian Missile Advance

On February 4, Iran launched a Kavoshgar-1 (Explorer-1) rocket into sub-orbital space from the desert region in the Semman Province, southeast of Tehran.  Iranian defense officials gave few details about the rocket, but described it as a research rocket carrying scientific instruments and perform experiments during the sub-orbital flight.  Based on its appearance in photos released by Iran some have speculated it could be an enhanced version of the Shahab-3 missile.  Iran claims the rocket will be ready to launch its first domestically engineered satellite, Omid (Hope), into space in 2009, which is said to be designed to monitor the earthquake prone country during natural disasters, and improve communication within Iran.  President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Iranian state-run television: "We need to have an active presence in space. We witness today that Iran has taken its first step in space very firmly, precisely and with awareness."  The launch was said to inaugurate the completion of Iran's new "space terminal" near the city of Semnan, from whence Shahab missiles are also tested.

 

Both American and Russian officials indicated that the test might signal an advance in Iranian missile technology.  White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe commented, "It's unfortunate Iran continues to test ballistic missiles. This regime continues to take steps that only further isolate it and the Iranian people from the international community." Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov commented that,  "Any progress in the development of this [long-range ballistic missile] weaponry, certainly worries us and others," adding that the test's demonstration of advanced missile technology which "raise[s] suspicion towards Iran about its possible desire to create a nuclear weapon."

 

Russian Colonel General Viktor Yesin, former chief of General Staff of the Russian Strategic Missile Troops, was also quoted as saying that "This achievement has shown that Iranian specialists have become familiar with production of liquid-propellant rocket engines, which will also allow them in the long term to create ballistic missiles with a range of 3,500-4,000 kilometers or even more. ...I will not be surprised if Iran will have such missiles in the next few years." (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

White House Budget Includes 9.4 Billion for Missile Defense

The White House's $515.4 billion 2009 baseline defense spending plan seeks $9.3 billion for the Missile Defense Agency, a figure MDA officials say will remain steady for the next few years.  The budget if approved by Congress would include $405 million for the Airborne Laser program, $344.2 million for the Multiple Kill Vehicle, $375.7 million for the Kinetic Energy Interceptor, $44.9 million for the joint U.S.-Israeli David's Sling short-range missile effort, $151.5 million for ongoing work with Japan and $720 million for a planned missile defense system in Eastern Europe. (Article, Link) 

» Missile Defense Agency Budget (Fiscal Year 2009)

» More stories on: Budget

Bolton on Iran NIE Assessment

John R. Bolton called for the de-politicization of the National Intelligence Estimate and of the U.S.'s intelligence agencies in today's edition of the Wall Street Journal. The latest National Intelligence Estimate concerning Iran's nuclear program claims "with high confidence that in fall, 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." However, the last sentence of the estimate also says, "The NIE later makes clear that Iran's nuclear efforts and capabilities are continuing and growing, that many activities are "dual use" (i.e., for either civil or military purposes), and that Iran's real intentions are unknown. Substantively, therefore, the NIE is not far different from the 2005 NIE, but its first sentence gives a radically different impression." Bolton fears that security agencies have strayed from the traditional role of simply gathering intelligence to making policy decisions. (Article, Link) 

Russian Envoy Threatens Poland on Defense Cooperation with U.S. by Invoking WWII Plight

Moscow's envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, has warned Poland against accepting the basing of American missile defense interceptors.  Rogozin threatened possible retaliation, and invoked memories of its World War II plight at the hands of its Soviet conquerers and oppressors.  Rogozin is quoted by the Russian Interfax news agency as follows:

 

The Polish colleagues must be reminded of their recent history, which indicates that attempts to place Poland "on the confrontation line" have always led to tragedies. That way Poland lost nearly one third of its citizens during World War II....I was sure this horrible lesson would not be wasted and Poland would plan its foreign policy relying on friendly relations all along the borderline.

 

Poland and the U.S. have reportedly agreed "in principle" to the plan to emplace ten Ground Based Interceptors in Poland after assuring Warsaw that the United States would also help develop Poland's short and medium range air and missile defenses. The two sides did not elaborate on the terms of the tentative agreement, and it remained unclear whether the United States had made specific promises to provide air defense systems such as the Patriot. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, European Missile Defenses, Russia

Pakistan Tests Hatf-5

Pakistan launched a Hatf-5 ballistic missile on February 1, only a week after it tested a medium-range Hatf-4. The Hatf-5 is an intermediate range ballistic missile can with a range up to 1,300 km. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf praised the team behind the launch, and also reiterated his country's control of its nuclear assets, saying, "We have taken note of various imaginary scenarios being propounded by those who do not wish Pakistan well. Such elements have never reconciled to a nuclear Pakistan." (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Pakistan, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Hatf 5, Hatf 5A