MissileThreat.com

New Russian Ballistic Missiles by End of Decade

Col.-Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, senior deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, gave an interview published in the February 26 edition of Russkii Kurier. The interview has been noted by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, an anti-missile defense organization supported in large part by its co-chair, Ted Turner. What NTI reports from this interview, and what they do not, are quite illustrative of their bias. A more complete reading of the interview supports the conclusion that Russia’s ballistic missile arsenal remains a threat to the United States, and should properly be seen as an additional reason to deploy a comprehensive defense, rather than a reason not to do so.
        Following up on Putin’s remarks a week ago, Baluyevsky spoke of the missiles’ increased maneuverability, designed to penetrate American missile defenses. NTI predictably quotes these, so as to emphasize that Russia will effortlessly make U.S. defenses, to use Putin’s phrase, “useless.”
        In response to the question, of whether “Russia is totally opposed to building missile defense systems,” Baluyevsky responded that this was clearly not the case:

No, Russia is not against missile defense. Moreover, Russia is the only country to possess a missile defense system already. Built in accordance with the ABM Treaty of 1972, it is combat-ready… We have only one objective. We advocate missile defense systems that will ensure protection against single launches, not mass strikes. We mean protection from any missiles that may end up in the hands of international terrorists. At present, neither the Russian missile defense system nor the one the United States is building will provide protection against mass strikes. At the same time, we are opposed to missile defense systems that may pose a threat to Russia or devalue its arsenals. I’m talking about the strategic arsenals. Our objective is simple and clear, I think. All our actions, including actions in connection with the appearance of missile defense systems in other countries, aim to maintain Russia’s capacity to do unacceptable damage to an aggressor, no matter where the aggressor is.

        As Baluyevsky noted—but NTI did not—Russia continues to maintain and advance the extensive missile defense system of the Soviet Union.
        As frequently noted here, Russia wishes the United States to perpetuate the dangerous doctrine of mutually assured destruction vis a vis the former Soviet Union, no less after the withdrawal from the ABM Treaty than when MAD was the law of the land for the thirty years when the treaty was in force. Russia’s wish will be fulfilled if the United States deploys only very limited missile defenses, that is, those which do not protect from the nuclear-armed ballistic missiles of China and Russia.
        The recent remarks by Putin and Baluyevsky should be seen as directed at U.S. plans to deploy a limited missile defense system this year, for the purpose of undermininng domestic support for the system within the U.S. The selective reporting by NTI seems to serve the same purpose.  (More »»») 

» Feb. 18, 2004: Putin: Russia to get new offensive and defensive strategic weapons

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

60 Minutes Attacks Patriot Missile Defenses

A piece by 60 Minutes which attacks the Patriot missile defense system marks something of a turnaround with missile defense critics. For decades naysayers have complained that missile defense will not work, and speculated that it is impossible to hit a bullet with a bullet. A new tack now appears to be that missile defenses indeed work, but are too effective, locking on to planes as well as missiles. Of course, the Patriot was designed as both an air defense and a missile defense weapon. The friendly fire incidents are certainly tragic, but it is worth consideration how critics have shifted gears so completely.
        Despite such objections, the PAC-3 is widely being bought by countries around the world. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and many others are lining up to purchase the Patriot interceptor. (Article, Link) 

» Rebuttal to 60 Minutes piece, by Patriot experts

» More stories on: Land-Based Systems, Policy

Iran Upgrading Range of Shahab-3

Iran’s highly effective Shahab-3 will not only be marketed to other countries such as Syria, but will also be undergoing some significant enhancments to extend its range. The Shahab-3 currently reaches some 1,300km, but the improvements could extend that to 1,600km, according to the Middle East Newsline. The upgrades would, it is reported, substitute for Iran’s Shahab-4 development program. However, there are already indications that a form of the Shahab-4 has already been deployed and put into service in 2003. (Article, Link) 

» Shahab-3 details

» Shahab-4 details

» More stories on: Iran, Proliferation, Technology

» Missile details: Shahab-6, Small ICBM

Aegis BMD May Be Deployed By Early 2005

According to the March issue of National Defense magazine, the Navy is preparing to put Aegis crusiers’ missile defense systems on alert by early 2005. The Navy’s current plan is said to be the deployment of three Aegis ships armed with interceptors capable of destroying short- and medium-range enemy ballistic missiles in their midcourse phase above the atmosphere. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: ABM Treaty, Policy, Sea-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Blank on China-Taiwan Arms Race

Stephen Blank on the “arms race” brewing in the Taiwan Strait, provoked in large measure by Chinese buildup of some 500 short range missiles of the coast of Taiwan. Blank speculates that due to the buildup, hostility in the region is becoming more likely. (Article, Link) 

» July 23, 2003: Blank on Proliferation by China and North Korea

» More stories on: China, Taiwan

Tenet Testimony: North Korea Continues Ballistic Missile Advances

Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet testified before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence as to the nature and extent of terrorism and the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. In general, he noted that the “picture is changing before our eyes—-changing at a rate I have not seen since the end of the Cold War.” After noting the continued efforts of terrorists such as Al Qaeda to acquire ballistic missiles and WMDs, Tenet went on to roughly outline the major capabilities and proliferation activities of India, Pakistan, Syria, and Iran, but devoted particular attention to three “pivotal states” of concern: China, Russia, and North Korea. (More »»») 

» More stories on: China, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Proliferation, Russia, Syria, Terrorism

Asst. Sec. of State: Pakistan BMD May Promote Regional Stability

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Stephen Rademaker has said that Pakistani missile defense may, “in certain circumstances…contribute to regional stability.” Rademaker added that the “United States was ready to discuss the issue with Pakistan.”
        In one sense, the truth of this statement is obvious. Missile defenses, properly balanced and carefully managed, could be a means by which to ease the nuclear missile standoff between Pakistan and India. All the difficulty would lie, of course, in the transfer from a sort of policy of mutually assured destruction to one of mutually assured defense: where defensive systems overcome offensive ones. In another sense, limited missile defenses may be used to level the current offensive strategic balance between the two rival countries. In general, however, the United States would probably do well to promote missile defenses the world over. All that can be done to undermine and destroy the perceived intrinsic superiority of offensive nuclear weapons to defensive ones is likely to be efforts well directed. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Pakistan

Israel Developing New Ground-Based Interceptor

Israel is developing an additional land-based missile defense system to supplement the Arrow-2 interceptors, a land-version of the Barak naval point defense missile system, which would also destroy missiles in their last, or terminal stage. The new system is said to be designed to intercept medium and long range missiles. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Israel

Council for a Livable World Attacks Bush Plan to Deploy

In an article entitled Missile Defense: The Dangers and Lack of Realism, George Rathjens and Carl Kaysen of the Council for a Livable World savage plans to deploy missile defenses. Although efforts to withdraw from the ABM Treaty began shortly after Bush entered office in 2001, Rathjens and Kaysen allege that the 2004 deployment is an election year ploy. They then proceed to recount the tired arguments against missile defense trotted out over the past 30 years. By comparing Bush’s 2004 “election year” deployment to that of LBJ’s similar proposal for 1968 (when LBJ was not running for reelection), they both confuse the reader and date themselves, both in the obsolescence of their arguments and their refusal to see that the doctrine of mutually assured destruction may not be as applicable today as it may have been during the Cold War, if ever. Just as they and others had argued against Reagan’s SDI program, that it shouldn’t be done unless it was 100% effective, so the same arguments are made again now. The benefit of deployment:

depends on whether any deployed defense might be essentially 100% effective. This, however, will certainly not be the case with President Bush’s announced deployment, nor do we believe it likely with any system that might evolve from it. Like it or not, nuclear deterrence is likely to be with us during the first part of this century, as it was during much of the last.

        Their adamant “like it or not” refusal to consider any alternative to MAD betrays, at the very least, an ignorance to take account of changed global circumstances. The bankruptcy of the Cold War doctrine of MAD so often emphasized on missilethreat.com is very well articulated in an article responding to the CLW screed. Charlie Rainbolt at TechCentralStation.com zeroes in on their logical flaw. Even if a system is not 100% effective—no defense is—some defense is better than none. Paradoxical and sophisticated arguments for “strategic stability,” which required Americans to be vulnerable in order to be safe, are simply no longer persuasive in a world of wide proliferation and irrational actors. (Article, Link) 

» CLW attack on BMD deployment

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

Army Orders 159 PAC-3 Interceptors

Lockheed Martin has received contracts to produce 159 PAC-3 interceptors and their related equipment for the Army. 22 Patriot missiles are said to replace those used during Operation Iraqi Freedom. The interceptors are expected to be delivered by 2006. Additional contracts include enhancements to the Patriot to make it more maneuverable. (Article, Link) 

» Video of PAC-3 launch, interception

» More stories on: Land-Based Systems, Policy

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

Despite Chinese Pressure, Chen Resolute: Taiwan BMD Regardless of March Referendum Outcome

Taiwan will proceed with the planned purchase of three American made Patriot missile interceptors regardless of the outcome of the March 20 referendum, according to a statement by President Chen. One of the questions voters will be asked is whether or not they think Taiwan should increase its defenses against Chinese missiles if China does not withdraw their buildup near the Strait. Cabinet Spokesman Lin Chia-lung commented that the $15 billion special budget would go towards eight diesel-engine submarines, 12 P-3C Orion aircraft, three PAC-3 missile defense systems, and four Kidd-class destroyers that US President George W. Bush promised to sell to Taipei three years ago.
         The Taipei Times refers to a position paper recently made by the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense. The position paper notes that China continues to refuse to renounce the option of using force to compel the island nation to accept rule by mainland Communist China. The Times cites the position paper as saying that China has over “100 strategic ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads that can strike any country in the world.” These are in addition, of course, to the 500 tactical ballistic missiles armed with multiple high explosive warheads off the coast of Taiwan, the number of which is increasing at a rate of about 75 per year: over 600 are estimated to be in place by 2005. Moreover, the paper notes that China’s various missiles are able to be fired from anywhere at sea, around the globe. (Article, Link) 

» Update: Mar. 4, 2004: Chinese Parliament calls Taiwan President Chen “Immoral,” warns independence will not be tolerated

» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Taiwan

Russia Launches Military Satellite

Russia has launched a strategic communication satellite as part of its massive strategic exercises. The Cosmos-2405 (Molniya-1T) communication satellite was successfully placed in orbit by a Molniya-M rocket from the Plesetsk launch site. President Putin is said to have personally observed the launch. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Space-Based Systems

Russia to Develop New Strategic Weapon Systems

In the midst of extensive strategic nuclear war exercises, President Putin today announced to reporters that Russia would be getting new strategic weapons, and would be upgrading its missile defense system, plans for which he said have been in the making for over a dozen years. Putin’s comments come after he watched the launch of a military satellite at the Plesetsk cosmodrome—-the purpose of which is to simulate launching satellites during a nuclear war to replace those lost in the conflict.
        The Los Angeles Times’ wording to describe Russia’s “possible effort to develop a Russian missile defense system” is deceptive, of course. Russia has maintained the Soviet-era missile defense system, which has now been in place for decades around Moscow. Russia will likely be advancing and exapanding its already deployed systems, as they have continued to do over the years.
        As for Russia’s new offensive strategic weapons, Putin did not elaborate, but said that they would be “capable to hit targets deep inside continents at hypersonic speed and change the altitude and direction of their flight,” according to the Russian Interfax news agency. Although Putin claimed that these efforts were not aimed at the U.S., one may be reasonably sure this is not the case. The U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty and the plans to deploy a limited missile defense system this year make it more than probable that the U.S. is at least among the new threats Putin spoke of the need to counter. Such weapons, likely the reentry vehicles for nuclear warheads, which are able to “change the altitude and direction of their flight” by means of things such as “penetration aids,” are primarily of interest only to overcome missile defenses—such as the hit-to-kill defenses the U.S. will be deploying in 2004. Currently, Putin noted, “No country in the world has such kind of systems.”
        Such a “maneuverable warhead” would be capable of changing directions during reentry to confuse terminal phase defenses. Of course, the possible merits of such technology should be seen as another reason to pursue boost-phase defense, during the missile’s vulnerable ascent period, before any countermeasures can be deployed. Aviation Week & Space Technology reported on Monday that that Russia had conducted a second successful test of a new warhead for the advanced SS-27 ICBM, which is said to be powered by a supersonic combustion ramjet.
         The Los Angeles Times quotes Arms Control Association Executive Director Daryl Kimball, saying that Putin’s announcement signals a Russian intent to continue to engage in a post-Cold War arms race with the United States. “This illustrates that the U.S. and Russia both continue to develop ever more modern and deadly ballistic missile systems, and the Cold War continues, despite the friendly words from Putin.” Such an assessment points to the strategic clarity which must be required as the United States begins to deploy a limited missile defense system this year. Russia is continuing to test and modernize its own nuclear forces, and are willing to pursue both offensive and defensive measures. With this in mind, the U.S. must not only boldly deploy those limited systems slated for this year, but be prepared to meet and match the threat from wherever it comes: not only from rogue nations, but from China and Russia as well. The Bush administration has outlined plans by which the 2004 system will “evolve.” It is to these threats that evolution must be directed. (Article, Link) 

» Xinhau on Putin announcement

» Pravda: Putin means to pursue “Star Wars”

» More stories on: Maneuverable Warheads, Nuclear Weapons, Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

Russian Air Defenses Said “Deplorable,” But Russian BMD Still in Good Shape

Former commander of the Russian Air Force Anatoly Kornukov declared that Russian defenses against air attack are “in deplorable condition,” and comparing their capabilities to those of several decades ago. He cited the S-50 air defense system as one example, whose effectiveness has been halved. But whatever the condition of Russian defenses against aircraft, however, Russia’s missile defense system is still in reasonably good shape.
        After denegrating the air defense systems, Kornukov immediately added that the whole situation “is not hopeless,” and went on to describe Russia’s missile defense system as operating effectively.
        Kornukov also spoke of the need for Russia to employ space: “Russia needs an inexpensive but reliable space defense system, capable of protecting it from air and space strikes,” and added that “Space defense should become a vital part of a system to deter possible aggression against Russia.” The Russian press reports that Kornukov goes on to describe Russia’s missile defense system as “capable of hitting orbital vehicles.”
        Kornukov specifically spoke of Russia’s newer S-400 air and missile defense system, which uses the Triumf interceptor, as having been tested successfully and was ready for serial production.
        The Triumf interceptor is reported to have a range of 400km, and is to be used against both ballistic and cruise missiles such as the American Tomahawk—as well as against early warning, tactical, and strategic aircraft. In terms of its ballistic missile defense capabilities, it is said to be able to intercept warheads traveling at a speed of 4,800 km per hour (1.3km/sec).  (Article, Link) 

» RBC News on Triumf capability

» Russia Journal on Triumf

» More stories on: Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-400 (SA-20 Triumf)

U.S. Missile Warning Satellite Launched

The Cold War may be over, but the threat from ballistic missiles is not, as Russia’s nuclear war exercise should assure any doubts to the contrary. Today a Titan 4 placed an American missile launch warning satellite into orbit.
        The 5,000 pound Defense Support Program (DSP) Satellite is part of an older network which uses infrared sensors to track heat and light such as that generated from a missile’s plume as it takes flight. Plans have long been in place, however, to replace these with a newer and more advanced network of satellites called the Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS). Nevertheless, “These satellites will remain the backbone for the nation’s missile warning system,” said Col. Robert Reese of the Space & Missile Systems Center at Los Angeles Air Force Base. One other DSP satellite is also reportedly scheduled to be launched in March, by a Delta 4 rocket.
        As Chief of DSP operations at Peterson Air Force Base, Major Francis Diorin commented, “The threat is still there.” “The Soviets still have ICBMs on alert,” he noted. Indeed, this week’s extensive tests by Russia confirm that the former Soviet Union means to not only keep, but improve and increase both their offensive strategic ballistic missiles and their own missile defense system. The United States has a moral duty to its citizenry to defend against these threats.
        The DSP satellite is No. 22 of 23 in the constellation. (Article, Link) 

» Lockheed press release from launch

» Video of Titan launch

» More stories on: Space-Based Systems, Detection and Tracking

» Missile system details for: Defense Support Program (DSP)

Bush Radio Address Points to Need for BMD

President Bush’s weekly radio address included an articulation of the need for missile defense, pointing to the possibility of ballistic missiles capable of carrying weapons of mass destruction. The sort of asymmetric, small threats from terrorists and rogue nations must not become a distraction from the continuing strategic, large, threats to our national security.

THE PRESIDENT: Good morning. On September the 11th, 2001, America and the world saw the great harm that terrorists could inflict upon our country, armed with box cutters, mace and 19 airline tickets.

Those attacks also raised the prospect of even worse dangers, of terrorists armed with chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons. The possibility of secret and sudden attack with weapons of mass destruction is the greatest threat before humanity today.

America is confronting this danger with open eyes and unbending purpose. America faces the possibility of catastrophic attack from ballistic missiles armed with weapons of mass destruction, so we are developing and deploying missile defenses to guard our people.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Russian Gearing Up for 10 ICBM tests in 2004

Russian Strategic Missile Forces head Nikolai Solovtsov is said to have told the official Rossiiskaya Gazeta daily newspaper that a total of ten “test-combat” missile launches were planned for 2004. It is as yet unclear how many of these were part of the February war games. However, so far the exercises have included two SLBM abortive launches, a Topol SS-25, an SS-19, and the launch of a military communications satellite. (Article, Link) 

» Dec. 26, 2003: Russia tests SLBM, its third missile this month

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-21 B, SS-N-5

Russia Begins Nuclear War Exercise; Rivals 1982 “Seven Hour Nuclear War”

Russia has begun the first stages of a massive “all-out nuclear war” exercise, according to reports from several Russian newspapers. The largest in over two decades, the war games rival the “seven hour nuclear war” maneuvers by the Soviet Union in 1982. The tests include test firings of sea and land-based ballistic missiles, strategic bombers, cruise missiles, spy satellite launches, the simulated destruction of a U.S. satellite, and a test of the Moscow ABM system.
        The military exercise, overseen by President Vladimir Putin, will test the Russian nuclear triad while showing the world that Russia is still a first rate military power. Some dismiss the goals of the exercise as innocuous political maneuvers in anticipation of the Russian Presidential election in March. Officially, the exercise is said to be anti-terrorism-related. But a more likely explanation is that, like the 1982 tests, this exercise serves the genuine goals of sharpening of Russia’s offensive nuclear deterrent against the United States, overcoming American missile defenses, and upgrading Russia’s own missile defenses. As Putin commented last week, “The world should see our military power as an element of strategic security.”  (More »»») 

» Update: Feb. 18: Itar-Tass: SS-19 Missile Launched

» Pravda description of nuclear exercise

» Update: Feb. 17, 2004: Two SLBM launches fail

» Russia denies Interfax, Itar-Tass reports of missile failures

» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons, Russia, Russian Missile Defenses, Testing - Foreign

Miniature Kill Vehicles

Lockheed Martin has received a contract to develop a “miniature” missile defense interceptor. The idea of such an interceptor would be to destroy multiple warheads released by a single missile, or both the warhead as well as any possible countermeasures.
        A number of interceptors, by some accounts as many as 12, would be housed within a single launch vehicle, and then released together at a certain point when approaching the offensive missile. (Article, Link) 

» Space and MD Command: description of MKV

» Jan. 7, 2004: MDA contract, description of MKV

» More stories on: Policy, Space-Based Systems

China Launches Anti-Chen Campaign in Anticipation of March Referendum

As the March 20 referendum on whether Taiwan should respond to China’s missile buildup with defensive measures, China has apparently launched an anti-Chen campaign, against the president up for reelection on the same date. Officially, China denies such meddling, but they are sending diplomats to put pressure on the leader. China’s bully tactics seem to have thus far not been unsuccessful, already prompting Chen to water down the referendum language. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Taiwan

Russian S-300 to go to India

Russia has offered its S-300V missile defense system to India, according to India’s Financial Express. India is currently also considering the comparable Israeli Arrow II and the American Patriot missile defense systems. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: India, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant)

More Missiles at Greely

Budget plans presented to Congress include a request for an additional 10 ballistic missile interceptors at Fort Greely, which would bring the total at the post to 26. Even if approved, the additional 10 interceptors would probably not be available until late in the decade. Nine interceptors should be deployed this year. Some are also scheduled to be deployed at Vandenberg. Besides these, the military also asked for an additional 10 at “a potential third site.” Fort Greely alone, however, has room for at least 40 interceptors. (Link) 

» Missile system details for: Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI)

Report: U.S. Defenses May Become Operation Ahead of Schedule, in Early Summer

The Pentagon may begin operation of the land-based missile defense interceptors to be based in Alaska and California as early as this summer, some months ahead of a September 30 deadline.
        “If we could have some capability, we’d be negligent not to put it out as early as we could,” said one senior military officer involved in the program.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Popular Science: MDA’s Blimps

The February edition of Popular Science magazine carries an article about the blimps the Missile Defense Agency is considering incorporating into its early warning network, graced with the clever title, “Defense Inflation.”
        Inasmuch as the blimps offer reliable stationary platform for tracking missiles, they are useful. But inasmuch as they are a substitute for more advanced space-based systems, they represent a sort of halfway house: a serious attempt to pursue missile defense compromised by irrational aversion to “weaponizing space.” Defensive measures, it must be remembered, are not the concern with weaponizing space: the ballistic missiles themselves, which leave the atmosphere during flight, are by definition “space weapons.” (Article, Link) 

» Oct. 22, 2003: Blimps Considered for Layered BMD Architecture

» More stories on: Air, Policy, Technology