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Adm. Willard Says China's Carrier Killer is Here

In a long interview with the Japanese newspaper, the Asahi Shimbun, U.S. Navy Pacific Commander Admiral Robert Willard stated that the Chinese anti-carrier ballistic missile, the DF-21 D, is at an "initial operational capability" stage. While the Navy has not seen an "over-water test of the entire system," Adm. Willard thinks that "the component parts of the anti-ship ballistic missile have been developed and tested."

 

According to Chinese military doctrine, the DF-21 D is part of anti-access/area-denial, whereby the Chinese push the outer edge of their exclusive naval perimeter out to the first island chain, stretching from Vietnam and Malaysia in the south and the edge of the East China Sea in the north, and eventually to the second island chain, which stretches from open water to the east of central Japan down to the Northern Marianas, then Guam, Micronesia, Palau, and terminates in eastern Indonesia.

 

For now, says Admiral Willard, China is focused on the "near seas" that but up against the first island chain (the Bohai, Yellow Sea, South China Sea, and the East China Sea); their goal will be "to eventually become a global military." (Article, Link) 

Senate Ratifies New START Treaty 71-26

The U.S. Senate has ratified the New START nuclear arms control treaty by a vote of 71-26. The 26 Senators opposed were all Republicans, led in opposition—as they have been for months—by Jon Kyl. Many Republicans still held reservations about, among other things, possible implied limitations on missile defense deployments because of preamble language. This number of Senators in opposition to such a high profile treaty is unusual.

 

Many opposed Senators, some of whom ended up voting for the treaty, were successful in securing bipartisan statements about the Senate's understanding that the treaty could not limit the ability of the U.S. to deploy missile defenses in Europe or elsewhere. Such statements will not become treaty language, but there is ample precedent for them playing a significant part in future foreign policy and the Senate's continuing involvement in a kind of oversight.
 (Article, Link) 

» More Coverage from McClatchy

» The Roll Call Vote

Pakistan Test Launches Hatf V Ballistic Missile

Pakistan launched a Hatf V medium-range missile today; with a maximum range of 1,300 km, nuclear capability, and possible poor accuracy, the Hatf V is one of Pakistan's blunter deterrants. Deployable from a TEL vehicle, the Hatf V is maneuverable, but because of its liquid-fuel, cannot be launched as fast or stored as safely as more sophisticated ballstic missiles.

 

The Hatf V is likely a derivation of the North Korean No-Dong family of ballistic missiles, as is the Iranian Shahab 3. (Link) 

Obama Tries to Reassure New START Opponents

In a letter to the Senate yesterday, President Obama sought to quell concerns among many GOP lawmakers that the New START treaty might limit the deployment of U.S. missile defenses in Europe. This has been a contentious inter-party issue ever since the conclusion of negotiations and the submission of treaty language to the Senate. The source of the contention has been a flourish in the preamble of the treaty indicating a link between strategic nuclear forces and missile defense. Many Republican lawmakers fear that this may provide an opening for Russia to pressure the U.S. in the future about the full, four-phase deployment of the Phased Adaptive missile defense plan in Europe. The fourth phase, involving upgraded SM-3 interceptors, could conceivably be used to defend against the launch of Russian intermediate- and long-range missiles, in addition to longer-range Iranian missiles.

 

President Obama was explicit in his letter that the treaty would not limit U.S. missile defenses and that he would pursue vigorously all four phases of the European missile shield. (Article, Link) 

Missile Defense Test Fails

The Missile Defense Agency reports today that a test of the Ground-Based Interceptor system has failed. An intermediate-range ballistic missile target was launched from the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean, and an interceptor was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The sea-based X-Band radar performed as designed, and the kill vehicle properly deployed from the interceptor, yet the intercept failed. MDA is investigating reasons for the failure. This is the second failed test in the last year.

 

The ground-based interceptors in Alaska and California are America's primary defense against long-range ballistic missiles. (Article, Link) 

Polish-U.S. Relations Cool Under Obama Administration

It appears that in private at least one Polish official was quite upset at the Obama administration's offer of an unarmed Patriot missile installation in lieu of the Bush administration's previous plan to involve Poland significantly in a ground-based long-range missile defense system. Recently released documents by Wikileaks record the response of one Polish Deputy Defense minister that Poland didn't "need garden planters."

 

The most recent attempt to mollify the Poles came in the form of an offer by President Obama to base some fighter planes in Poland. Visiting Polish president Bronislaw Komorowski, when asked about the offer by Polish reporters in Washington this week, said: "We never gave the impression that we have had some sort of great breakthrough and America thinks of nothing but how to defend Poland."

 

It becomes increasingly clear that at the very least, the announcement of the policy change from ground-based interceptors to the Obama administration's 'Phased Adaptive Approach' was less than adeptly handled. What lasting consequences it might have with long time allies like Poland remains to be seen.
 (Article, Link) 

Japan 5-Year Plan Involves More Missile Defense

In a strategic environment increasingly dominated by the possibility of a belligerent North Korea and an expanding China, Japan will continue to shift resources to its land- and sea-based missile defenses over the next half decade. PAC-3 interceptors will be placed at all of Japan's air bases (many of the bases currently house PAC-2 systems), and SM-3 interceptors will be deployed on all of Japan's Aegis missile destroyers (currently, four out of six of Japan's Aegis ships have SM-3 interceptor capability).

 

Reductions in conventional tanks and artillery will help offset the cost of these strategic shifts. Japan will also increase her submarine fleet.
 (Article, Link) 

UAE to Acquire THAAD

 

In what is becoming a growing trend towards more missile defenses in the region, the United Arab Emirates will soon purchase Lockheed's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense. Regional powers like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have been purchasing missile defenses as well, and Qatar is considering a similar course of action.

 

Iran is, no doubt, the main concern of many of the gulf states. But the commander of the UAE Air Force and Air Defence Operation Center cited merely the "high concentration of theater ballistic missiles" in the area. (Link) 

Russia Talks Tough on European Missile Shield

On December 8, the Russia-NATO Council will meet to hammer out a "roadmap" for moving forward on missile defense in Europe. Dmitry Rogozin, Moscow's permanent representative at Russia-NATO, stressed what has emerged in recent weeks as Russia's hard-line on the European missile shield: either Russia is made a full partner in any missile shield deal, or it will stand opposed. Rogozin also repeated a line that Russian Prime Minister Putin voiced on Larry King Live: if the missile shield is seen as a threat to Russia's strategic nuclear forces, then such forces will have to be augmented and increased. Putin's remarks were a follow-up to remarks by Russian President Medvedev along similar lines (Medvedev talked of the possibility of a revived arms race).

 

Many diplomatic insiders suggest this is so much political grandstanding, designed to help New START through the U.S. Senate and strengthen Russia's bargaining position. The recent troubles Russia has had with its ballistic missile program, especially the submarine-launched Bulava, cast some doubt on Russia's ability to follow rhetoric with actual increased capability. (Article, Link)