MissileThreat.com

Israel Develops Super Laser

The Ben Gurion University in Israel has apparently developed what is being called a super chemical laser, far more efficient and powerful than previous models. The Chemical Oxygen-Iodine Laser is touted as having beaten similar programs in other countries for its efficency and, perhaps most importantly, its small size. The Ben Gurion model uses nitrogen as a dilutent, rather than helium, as does other chemical lasers.
        Significant improvements in laser technology would be a significant boost to missile defense programs in general. Lasers are of particular importance due to their speed in interception, which easily overcomes the speed of ballistic missiles and permits boost phase interception, when missiles are most vulnerable. Laser advances would benefit not only to Israeli anti-missile programs such as Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL), but the U.S. Air Borne Laser (ABL) program as well, not to mention better space-based laser programs yet to be developed. The laser of the ABL, for example, takes up the majority of a Boeing 747. (Article, Link) 

» Air Borne Laser program description

» More stories on: Space-Based Systems, Technology

» Missile system details for: Airborne Laser (ABL), Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)

Russia Tests Yet Another SLBM

On December 26, Russia tested yet another submarine-launched ballistic missile, its third test this month. The Global Security Newswire cites Russia’s Defense and Security publication that the test was carried out from the Yekaterinburg Delta IV class ballistic missile submarine, and fired toward a target in the firing range located in the Kamchatka peninsula. (Article, Link) 

» Dec. 11: Second Russian Ballistic Missile Test in a Week

» Dec. 5: Russia Continues Missile Testing

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

China’s Laser Weapons Possible Threat to Taiwan

China may have a laser weapon, similar in concept to the United States’ air-borne laser (ABL), which they can and may be deploying near Taiwan, in addition to their buildup of short range ballistic missiles.
        The Taipei Times cites Taiwanese defense sources that the laser cannon, with a range over 100km—again, comparable to the ABL—has been deployed in Fujian Province facing Taiwan, and that it could be used to disable military command and control systems. One defense official, however, noted that the cannon may only still be in development: “We tend to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. We would rather believe that China has already developed such a weapon and that we should start making preparations as soon as possible.” The Times notes that the United States and Israel have developed laser weapons—the ABL and the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)—but these are used as anti-missile defense systems. It is, however, plausible that the Chinese system is designed to have an anti-missile defense capability.  (Article, Link) 

» June 7, 2000: First THEL intercept

» More stories on: China, Taiwan, Technology

» Missile system details for: Airborne Laser (ABL), Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)

Russia Deploys New Regiment of Topol-M SS-27 ICBMs; More Advanced Missiles Yet to Come

On Sunday, December 21, Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces formally deployed a new regiment of six silo-based Topol-M (SS-27) intercontinental ballistic missiles, armed with a single warhead each. Announcement of the deployment comes just ten days after a test of the SS-N-30 SLBM. The deployment supplements three additional regiments at the Tatishchevo base, bringing the total number of operationally deployed Topol-M missiles to 36. Tatishchevo is located in the Saratov region, in the southwest part of Russia, next to Kazakstan. (More »»») 

» November 11: Janes: Fifth Topol-M deployment anticipated

» Xinhau: Putin: Russia will maintain strategic momentum

» Map and information for Tatishchevo missile base in Saratov

» More stories on: Proliferation, Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-6

Russia to Retain Heavy SS-18s another 10-15 Years

Missiles previously slated to be destroyed under the now obsolete START II Treaty will continue to be an important part of Russia’s massive offensive nuclear arsenal for another ten to fifteen years, commented top general Nikolai Solovtsov, chief of the country’s Strategic Missile Forces. “SS-18” and “Satan” are the Western designations for the missiles known in Russia as R-36.
        This comment yet again confirms two things. First, that Russia is as intent as ever in maintaining a heavy nuclear offensive force—designed particularly against the United States—at levels on par with the United States. And second, that the recent Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction (SORT) Treaty permits cash-strapped Russia to do so at cost effective measures, such as extending the life of their older arsenal and thus postponing the need for heavier expenditures to produce large numbers of more modern systems, such as the SS-27. (Article, Link) 

» December 5: Update on Russian Testing of SS-18 and SS-19

» More stories on: Proliferation, Russia

» Missile details: SS-19 Mod 2, SS-20

Israel Arrow 2 Intercept Exceeds Expectations

On December 16, the Israel Air Force conducted the eleventh firing of the Arrow 2 ballistic missile interceptor, the sixth test of the complete Arrow Weapon System, including an interception. The successful intercept test was described as exceeding expectations, according to the December 30 edition of Janes Defense Weekly.
        The test took place with the interceptor launched from the Palmachim air force base. The Arrow missile intercepted a Rafael Armament Development Authority Black Sparrow target missile which had been dropped by an Israel F-15 aircraft and made to simulate a medium-range ballistic missile.
        The test, said one Israeli official, confirmed that the system “almost doubled the interception altitude of the Arrow,” making them useful against such longer range threats as Iran’s Shahab MRBM. “This was the most complex Arrow test we ever conducted and the results were even beyond our expectations,” the source said. Plans for future tests include the interception of an actual SCUD MRBM in 2004, to take place in the United States. The US Missile Defense Agency co-manages the Arrow program.  (Article, Link) 

» Jan. 17: China Daily: U.S. to increase production of Israeli Arrow Interceptor

» JINSA: Another Arrow Success

» More stories on: Allies, Technology, Testing - Foreign

» Missile system details for: Arrow

Aegis Missile Defense Test Successful

The Missile Defense Agency and the Navy today conducted the fourth test of the Aegis sea-based missile defense system, which was a success. The test involved the launch of a short range target missile from Kauai, Hawaii. Some two minutes later, a Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptor was launched from the USS Lake Erie Aegis cruiser. Two minutes after this, the SM-3 intercepted and destroyed the target missile with its own kinetic force.
        Before the USS Lake Erie launched its SM-3 missile, however, it received additional tracking information conveyed from another Aegis destroyer, the USS Russell, located near the island of Kauai, to serve as a test of coordinating multiple sources of tracking information.
        After being put onto the right course by the SM-3 missile, the kinetic warhead tracked and closed upon the target missile, finally impacting it at an altitude of 137 km and at a closing speed of some 3.7 km/sec.
        The Aegis system is one of the many “hit to kill” technologies which demonstrates time and again it is indeed possible to “hit a bullet with a bullet.” The sea-based system is but one important part of the layered defense necessary to protect the United States.
        Update: The director of the Pentagon’s Office of Operational Test and Evaluation, Thomas Christie, told Inside the Pentagon in a December 15 interview that the Aegis Test was a “success.”
        “It showed you can…pick up the [enemy] missile after it was launched, with the destroyer passing information to the cruiser, which had the Standard Missile-3 intercept the target,” the Pentagon’s top test official noted.
        Christie also said the intercept gave the Pentagon confidence in its plan for a layered missile defense system that utilizes different components at different stages of the operation.  (Article, Link) 

» Picture of missile launch

» More stories on: Sea-Based Systems, Technology, Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Second Russian Ballistic Missile Test in a Week

Only six days after an SS-19 ICBM test launch, Russia has again reportedly tested yet another. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Russian radio reported that an SS-27 (“Topol M”) variant, the SS-N-30 Bulava (equipped as an SLBM) was tested today from the Russian Dmitriy Donskoi Typhoon-class nuclear submarine, launched from the North Sea to the Kamchatka Peninsula. The SS-27 is Russia’s single most advanced ballistic missile. (Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-N-6, SS-26

Two of Six Democratic Presidential Candidates Support National Missile Defense

Governor Howard Dean and Senator Joseph Lieberman were the only two of six Democratic presidential candidates who came out in support of national missile defense, in their responses to a survey by the virulently anti-missile defense organization, Council for a Livable World. (More »»») 

» Full responses to Council for Livable World questionnaire

» Update: Dean would cut funding of Ground Based Interceptors (those based in Alaska)

» December 22: MDAA’s Riki Ellison challenges Dean to clarify his position on BMD, and apparent reversal

» More stories on: Policy

Rumsfeld: Missile Defense “America’s Highest Priority”; Space “Fundamental to Modern Warfare”

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld today hammered home two key points about the means to provide for the common defense: the priority of missile defense and the importance of space-based defenses. Speaking via video feed to attendees of a missile defense symposium in El Paso, Texas, Secretary Rumsfeld said that defending America, its overseas military and its allies from ballistic missiles laden with weapons of mass destruction “is now America’s highest priority.” State sponsors of terrorism “either have or are working hard to acquire nuclear, chemical or biological weapons of mass destruction and the long-range missiles necessary to deliver them.” When missile defense “is no longer a dream, but a reality, the world will be a much safer place for Americans, and for all people who long for peace and freedom.” He also gave notice that Alaska’s Missile Defense Space Battalion is slated for activation in January, and praised the Patriot missile crews’ performance during the Iraq war.
        Putting space into the context of the “Revolution in Military Affairs,” he observed that “the importance of space and missile defense in this endeavor cannot be overstated.” The importance of space-based systems “will only increase in the future,” he said, calling space as “fundamental to modern warfare” and unfettered access to space “a vital U.S. national interest.”  (Article, Link) 

» Link

» More stories on: Policy, Space-Based Systems

Lockheed to Produce Targets for MD Tests

The Department of Defense announced that the Missile Defense Agency has awarded a contract to Lockheed Martin for the MDA Targets and Countermeasures Program. The contract has the potential to last up to 10 years and be worth a maximum of 4.6 billion. Lockheed would produce the “dummy” interceptor targets and countermeasures which are used to develop and test the wide array of missile defense systems.
        The testing of countermeasures and finding ways to overcome them is of special importance. Countermeasures are systems used by the missile to distract attention from itself or confuse missile defenses. They are thus potential means of circumventing or complicating missile interception. While advanced countermeasures are unlikely to be used by “rogue” states, they are a possibility with Russia and China.
        In sum, the flurry of contracts over the past two weeks represent a serious concern with serious programs. While more attention should be be given advanced programs in space, the attention to continued testing and boost phase defenses continues along the right path. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

WSJ Editorial Praising Missile Defense Efforts

The Wall Street Journal editorial page today praised the efforts by the Bush administration in the field of missile defense. Listing the past week’s announcements of new programs such as the Kinetic Energy Interceptor, and the successes with Australia and Japan to join missile defense efforts, the editor concludes by reminding us of the courage it took to get this far:

“None of this would have been possible if the U.S. had stayed in the ABM Treaty, which forbade the deployment of any defense against ballistic missiles or the sharing of technology. At last the U.S. is making good progress in protecting America’s homeland and allies from ballistic missile attack.”

        (subscription required to view)  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis

Russia Continues Missile Testing

Russia today test-launched its third long-range ballistic missile since September. An SS-19 (Russian desgnation RS-18) was launched from Russia’s Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. An important component of Russia’s strategic arsenal, the SS-19 “Stiletto” has two main modifications, with a payload of up to 4,350 kg and a range of 10,000 km.
        News commentators on the launch have been emphasizing the missile’s possible use as a satellite launch vehicle, or SLV. This particular missile was apparently a Strela (“Arrow”) modification, Russian spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Igor Zatula said, used to “launch a dummy satellite” into low orbit. But one should hesitiate to assign merely “commerical” motives to such tests: to say, as Reuters does for example, that the purpose is for “providing satellites for phone networks and television broadcasters in countries it once targeted.”
        The military aspect of this launch, to maintain Russia’s ability to target countries with its nuclear weapons, is perhaps the more important point to understand. As Zatula also noted, Russia’s defense ministry used this particular launch to verify the missiles were fit for combat duty. According to the Russian news agency ITAR-Tass, the test is part of a project to extend the SS-19’s service life to 25 years. The service life of the SS-19 was previously estimated at 21 years, the limit of which many are now approaching. Russia continues an active testing program for a variety of its ballistic missiles; most recently with an SLBM test launch.
        What is not mentioned in the brief reports by Reuters and others is the relation of this test to the roughly 150 SS-19s recently acquired from the Ukraine in July. The purpose of these missiles was not merely to be used for launching satellites—a reference to SLV capacity is a common means to distract attention from missiles’ military value. In October, Putin ordered the transfer of the 150 SS-19s to combat duty to replace aging SS-18s: at the time, he commented: “I am speaking here about the most menacing missiles, of which we have dozens, with hundreds of warheads.” (Article, Link) 

» July 28, 2003: Ukraine sells 150 more ICBMs to Russia

» October 3, 2003: Putin Orders SS-19 Buildup

» October 15, 2003: Russia Tests Another SLBM

» More stories on: Russia, Technology, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-21 A, SS-21 B

The American Dream

The Economist magazine carries a fairly favorable, and faily sound, story on missile defense. While it correctly assesses that the system to be deployed in 2004 does not “make Americans invulnerable,” it does note that it is a step in the right direction.
        The Economist sets the right framework for the discussion, namely that missile defenses try to undo the doctrine of mutually assured destruction which allowed politicians to abandon the imperative to provide for the common defense.
        At the same time, the magazine notes that common criticisms of the Bush administration’s plans are often ill founded, in part from misconceptions about their relation to more ambitious, but also more effective, outlines of President Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative.

Mr Reagon’s famous exhortation has contributed to two popular misconceptions about America’s current missile-defence effort. One is that it will be based in space; the other is that it will be able to thwart a multiple missile strike by China or Russia.

        As for the assessment of the system to be deployed, The Economist calls it “more or less what was proposed by Bill Clinton—whose plans were lambasted for years by Republicans for being insufficiently ambitious,” and cites Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, as quipping that the system should be named after Mr. Clinton, since much of the necessary spending was done on his watch. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Australia to Proceed with Missile Defense

Following months of talks, Australia has now announced it will participate in the U.S. missile defense system. “We believe that taking part in the U.S. program will serve our strategic interest, help us defend Australia and allow us to make an important contribution to global and regional security,” said Foreign Minister Alexander Downer.
        Meanwhile, Japan also continues to move closer to such a commitment. Both countries are strategically important to the United States’ own missile defenses for the satellite tracking stations based in those countries, quite valuable in the case of a North Korean or Chinese attack or provocation over Taiwan. In a larger sense, Australia’s announcement is only the most recent demonstration of the abandonment of policies which rely upon purely offensive notions of deterrence, and which herald a global defensive transition.
        Australia already jointly operates a ballistic missile early warning station with the United States, located at Pine Gap in the Outback. The United States had also begun the joint Project DUNDEE (Down Under Early Warning Experiment) in 1997, which involved the tracking and interception of short range or so-called “theatre” ballistic missiles. (Article, Link) 

» Japan moving closer to announcement for MD

» MDA description of Project DUNDEE

» More stories on: Allies, Australia

Major MDA Contract for Boost-Phase Interceptor

After an eight month competition with Lockheed Martin, the Missile Defense Agency has awarded an eight-year, 4.5 billion dollar contract to Northrop Grumman to produce an interceptor to destroy ballistic missiles during their boost-phase. This is the MDA’s first “capability-based” contract, and involves a design that would have been banned under the old ABM Treaty.
        The contract is to produce a ground-based Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI). Its use of kinetic energy simply means that the interceptor would physically impact the missile: “hit-to-kill” technology. Unlike the Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) being constructed in Alaska which would intercept long-range missiles during their midcourse phase in space, the KEI, while ground-based is designed to intercept missiles in their boost phase, that is, during their ascent. As the boost phase for even a long-range missile is no more than roughly five minutes, the KEI would have to be located near enough the launch site of the enemy missile in order to still reach it during that phase. It also has to accelerate very fast, perhaps as much as 5,000 miles per hour. This particular interceptor design would be compatible of being launched from either land or sea. It would be capable of being loaded onto aircraft and deployed anywhere in the world. Northrop Grumman will likely initially produce five mobile launchers for the KEI.
        A layered-defense is ultimately necessary, but interception during the boost-phase has a number of advantages. It is during this phase that a missile is at its most vulnerable: during ascent a missile is moving at a slower speed; the body of the missile is under considerable pressure; its exhaust plumes make it more visible and thus trackable; its fuel tanks, which are still attached, constitute a larger target; no countermeasures or decoys can be deployed, and of course should the interception fail, time remains for a second attempt in the midcourse or terminal phases. (Article, Link) 

» DoD Release: Northrop Grumman Boost Phase contract

» More stories on: Budget, Land-Based Systems, Technology, Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)

President Chen: 496 Chinese Missiles Aimed at Taiwan

Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian released more detailed information on the location and number of China’s short and medium range ballistic missiles positioned within range of the small island. According to Chen, China has deployed 96 missiles each in Leping and Ganxian of Jiangxi Province, Meizhou of Guangdong Province, as well as 144 in Yongan and 64 in Xianyou of Fujian Province.
        These numbers slightly exceed those reported by the recent Department of Defense report, Chinese Military Power, which set the number at 450 and their rate of increase at 75 per year.
        Chen’s release of information and warning of China’s “the ongoing threat to Taiwan” comes after a stern U.S. warning to Taiwan not to hold a referendum declaring independence from mainland Communist China. Some of Chen’s political opponents suggest the information release is being calculated to support such a referendum on sovereignty with the next presidential election, on March 20, 2004. (Article, Link) 

» Center for Security Policy: U.S. Policy Shift?

» DOD Report on Chinese Military Power

» Bush April 25, 2001: U.S. will do “whatever it takes” to defend Taiwan

» China threatens Taiwan over referendum

» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Taiwan

Russian Missile Defenses for Europe?

During years of complaining about American movements toward missile defense, Russia has both maintained a missile defense system stationed around Moscow and, in recent years, begun to sell its S-300 and S-400 systems to other countries. Quoting the Russian ITAR-Tass news agency from November 28, an AFPC summary notes that Russia may be attempting to sell its own missile defenses for the protection of Europe from Iranian and other rogue states. Specifically, Russian defense firms may offer the more advanced “Triumf” S-400 defense system to members of NATO. The Triumf is, in terms of capability, a rival to the U.S. PAC-2 and PAC-3 “Patriot” dual-use anti-aircraft and theatre missile defense systems. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses, Technology

» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant), S-400 (SA-20 Triumf)

Bush Signs Energy Bill with Mini-Nuke Funding

President Bush has signed legislation which includes research funding for low yield nuclear weapons—dubbed “mini-nukes” and billed for their capability to penetrate underground bunkers. Such weapons are essential for the U.S. to maintain a credible and usable nuclear arsenal, of value not only in deterring China and Russia but smaller ‘rogue’ states less easily categorized as rational actors. (Article, Link) 

» Heritage Foundation’s Spencer: Learn to love the bomb

» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons