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Russia Tests Topol SS-25; Service Life Extensions to Yield Savings

On November 29, Russia tested fired one of its aging “Topol” ballistic missiles, which have been in service since the 1980s. The RS-12M missile, SS-25 in the NATO designation, was successfully launched from a mobile launcher located at the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk Region. The missile traveled east, with the warhead or warheads being delivered to the designated target at the testing ground of the Kamchatka Peninsula.
        The launch was part of an ongoing plan to extend the service lives of the SS-25, which shores up the strength of Russia’s offensive nuclear forces. Russia’s project to extend the service lives of Cold War workhorses such as the SS-18 and also the SS-25 helps to save or at least delay the costs associated with replacing them with newer ICBMS, such as, for example, the Topol-M (SS-27) which would otherwise be necessary to retain Russia’s sizable nuclear arsenal.
        The SS-25 Topol missiles have already exceeded the period through which they were expected to be operable. A statement by Colonel Aleksey Kuznetsov, head of the Space Troops’ press service, is quoted by the Russian Interfax news agency: “The purpose of the launch is to confirm the flight, technical and operation characteristics of the mobile ground-based Topol missile complex so that its service life can be extended to 20 years.” (Meanwhile, the Associated Press quoted the statement as saying the missiles could be extended to a life of 23 years, and RIA Novosti that it was 19.) To clarify, the service lives of specific missiles means that while some Topols were first introduced around the late-1980s, others which were built and deployed later could still be in service for some time, while still having the same overall “service life.” RIA Novosti explained that some Topol missiles could still be operational until 2016-2018.
        Russian Channel One TV notes that when the Topol missiles were introduced, they were expected to have a life for only ten years, which they have already almost doubled. It is however, worthy of notice that the Channel One report discussed the relation of the Topol and the newer Topol-M to missile defense, and specifically American missile defense capabilities. The Russian press, like the Russian military, is remarkably blunt in their desire to retain the means to deliver nuclear weapons to America, even so far as specifying that America is among its “likely enemies.”

…the launch from Plesetsk today of the oldest missile, and from the first batch, proved that they can maintain complete combat readiness for at least twice as long as this. A rocket usually becomes old when the opponent learns how to intercept it, but our likely enemies have not known what to do about the Topol, nor know so far.

The army is unlikely to keep the Topol missiles in service for longer than 23 years. A new weapon is on its way. …

[Gennadiy Yasinskiy, captioned as first deputy constructor at the Moscow institute of thermal technology] This missile is coming to the end of its service life. I don’t think the Americans will come up with anything special with their air defense [missile defense] system over these three years, whereas our modernized Topol-M missile [the SS-27] has all the elements required to overcome the US system being developed today.

[Correspondent] It was precisely in an attempt to catch up with the Topol that the Americans built the terribly expensive B-2 stealth bomber, each costing two billion dollars. But the outlay turned out to be justified: once in the air, this missile—the foundation of our nuclear shield—is completely unassailable for any air defense [missile defense] system.

        Given the fungibility of money, Russia can allocate resources in its growing military budget to other programs. As RIA Novosti noted, “This measure will allow Russia to keep the infrastructure of missile deployment areas for new mobile ground-based missile systems as it continues to commission modernized Topol-M versions according to schedule.”  (Article, Link) 

» Russian Channel One TV description of Topol test

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-N-5

» Missile system details for: Plesetsk Cosmodrome

North Korea Paper Slams U.S. Missile Defense Tests, Imperial Ambitions

A North Korean newspaper carried an article today slamming the United States for researching small “bunker busting” nuclear weapons technology and for pursuing ballistic missile defenses, both as a means to acquire worldwide military hegemony. The text was carried in the Pyongyang Nodong Sinmun as commentary by Choe Hak-chol, and late broadcast on the Pyongyang Broadcasting Station and the Korean Central Broadcasting Station. Some excerpts:

The US warmongers are running amok with more frenzy to realize the ambition to dominate the world militarily. This is intensely expressed by the fact that the US Senate has recently passed a bill that permits relevant institutions to dispense tremendous amounts of money for the expansion of nuclear weapons programme, that the US Department of Defence [DoD] established a plan to deploy anti-ballistic missiles in Eastern European countries as part of building a missile defence system, and that [DoD] perpetrated the test-firing of an anti-ballistic missile in the waters off Hawaii.

…The US imperialists plan to deploy a missile defence system in the East European countries and deliver the newest-type equipment, the same kind mobilized for the establishment of their own country’s missile defence system. This is to militarily bring the neighbouring countries under control and realize military hegemony.

It is merely a deception that the belligerent US classes profess that the manoeuvres to establish a missile defence system for Eastern European countries, such as Poland and Czech Republic, are “to protect all of Europe.”

The US imperialists’ manoeuvres to establish a missile defence system are clearly being perpetrated with the criminal purpose to seize control of military hegemony and to militarily attack other countries. That the US imperialists intend to establish a missile defence system in Eastern European countries is part of a sinister design to form an aggressive missile network throughout the world. In other words, they hope to carry out missile strikes on any region in the world by deploying missiles on the ground, in the sea, and even in space. The US warmongers have already deployed ground-based anti-ballistic missiles in Alaska and California, and are now buckling down to the new deployment of the newest surveillance device “X-band radar” in Japan. In addition, they are planning to begin, in the next several years, the development of satellites equipped with anti-ballistic missiles to terminate imaginary ballistic missiles. The criminal goal of the US imperialists’ satellite development plan lies in attempting to realize their ambition to conquer the world with absolute military superiority by covering the world with a missile network through the installation of missile bases in space, not to mention on the ground and in the sea. This is related with the fact that the belligerent US classes attempt to prospectively incorporate the anti-ballistic missiles deployed in space as part of a unified missile defence system. It is crystal clear that if the US imperialists established a missile defence system in Eastern European countries, they would not stop there, but continue to expand it to other regions.

        Full text of article: (More »»») 

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THAAD Interceptor Undergoes Flight Test

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system today underwent a successful developmental flight test, reports Lockheed Martin, which produced the missile. The test, which took place at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico, is the first for several years, since the THAAD program was restarted after being suspended for several years.
        No intercept was attempted in the test, but the goals included such things as: evaluating how the missile exited the canister, booster and kill vehicle separation, kill vehicle control, and operation of the divert and attitude control system.
        The next flight test will launch a missile with all elements of the integrated weapon system engaged and operating; the next four THAAD tests will also be conducted at White Sands, after which the tests will move to the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai, Hawaii where additional space allows the THAAD interceptors to fly increasingly longer and more complex missions. (Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), White Sands Missile Range

North Korea Said to Aid Iranian Missile Projects, Including Ghadr

The UPI news agency quotes an Iranian dissident group on the continued aid to Iran’s missile programs from such sources as North Korea. The official cited mentions both the Shahab-3 and the longer range Ghadr ballistic missile programs.

Tehran is building nuclear-warhead capable missiles with help from North Korean experts in a vast underground complex, Iranian opposition sources said Monday.

The project was initiated at the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1989. The plan involves dozens of immense tunnels and facilities built under the mountains near Tehran.

“North Korean experts have cooperated with the Tehran regime in the design and building of this complex,” said Alireza Jafarzadeh, president of Strategic Policy Consulting, and a former representative of the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq. “Many blueprints of the site have been prepared by North Korean experts.”

Hemmat Industries Group Factory, the most important branch of Iran’s Aerospace Industries Group is currently building Shahab-1, Shahab-2, Shahab-3 and Ghadar missiles, according to Jafarzadeh. Shahab-3 and Ghadar missiles have nuclear warhead capability.

“Shahab-3 missiles are being manufactured in large numbers, and are already part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards arsenal,” Jafarzadeh told United Press International. The Ghadar missile is still in the production stage, and is 70 percent complete. Shahab-3 has a range of 1,300 to 1,900 km (800-1,100 miles) and Ghadar has a range of 2,500 to 3,000 km (1,150-1,850 miles).

Working in utmost secrecy Hemmat Industries Group have been allocated code numbers. Movahed Industries, codenamed 7,500, builds the body of the missile and does final assembly. Karimi Industries, the most secretive part of the program, codenamed 2500, builds the warhead.

This group is located in the largest tunnel at the Khojir complex deep inside the Khojir and Bar Jamali Mountain. The tunnel is about 1,000 meters (yards) long, 12 meters wide. Iran has refused to allow U.N. inspectors to visit the military sites where much of the nuclear weapons work is reported to be conducted.

Information obtained by Jafarzadeh from source in Iran indicate that A.Q. Khan traveled to Iran in 1987 where he met with three top commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards who were working at the time on nuclear research. The IRGC delegation was headed by Brig. Gen. Mohammad Eslami.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Proliferation

Aegis Test Successful: Marks First Attempt Against More Advanced Separating Target

The Missile Defense Agency and the U.S. Navy today successfully conducted a significant test of the Aegis missile defense system. The test involved for the first time a “separating” target, meaning that the target warhead separated from its booster. Previous tests were against unitary (non-separating) targets representative of “SCUD”-type ballistic missiles. A separating missile requires the system to discriminate between targets, as well as presenting a smaller and faster target. “This test is very important and I’ll go as far as to say historical,” said Rear Adm. Kathleen K. Paige, program director of the sea-based missile defense project. “It verifies ballistic missile defense is real, that it is available today operationally at sea.” The Associated Press notes that senior representatives from the navies of Australia, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands and Spain watched the test with Paige on the Hawaiian island of Kauai.
        As reported by the MDA press release, a medium-range separating target was launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Barking Sands, on the island of Kauai, Hawaii. The USS Lake Erie, outfitted with the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense 3.0 Weapon System, detected and tracked the target. The USS Lake Erie launched the SM-3 interceptor some four minutes later. Six minutes after launch the interceptor successfully destroyed the target warhead more than 100 miles in space above the Pacific Ocean and 375 miles northwest of Kauai.
        The test, designated as Flight Test Maritime 04-2 (FTM 04-2), was the seventh such test of the Aegis ship-based system, six of which have now been successful. The MDA reportedly plans three more sea-based tests next year.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

SBX Enroute to Pacific, Passing Straits of Magellan

The Sea-based X-Band Radar system located on a massive oil platform, has begun its journey from the Gulf of Mexico to the Northern Pacific Ocean via the Straits of Magellan in South America.
        The large floating radar is too large too travel through the Panama canal, and instead of traveling under its own power it will be shipped aboard a heavy transport vessel called Blue Marlin. The current destination for the SBX is Adak, Alaska, a small island located in the Aleutian Island chain. (Article, Link) 

» Missile system details for: Sea-Based X-Band Radar (SBX)

PAC-3 Test Unsuccessful

A recent test of the Army’s Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile defense system against a short-range ballistic missile target was unsuccessful. The test took place on November 11 at White Sands Missile Range, in New Mexico. The PAC-3 has now had seventeen successful intercept tests and three unsuccessful intercepts. (Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3), White Sands Missile Range

Poland in Talks Over Possible Interceptor Site

In response to the report Saturday by the Polish daily newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland’s new prime minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz confirmed Monday that his government has opened a public debate on whether the country should allow the U.S. to install missile defense interceptors base on Polish territory. Marcinkiewicz confirmed that Poland has been in talks for the past three years about the possibility of hosting such a base, and that the government has said it would like Poland to be covered by the U.S. Missile Defense program, but said that, contrary to reports, no decisions have yet been made. “This is an important issue for Poland, related to our security and to our cooperation with an important ally,” Marcinkiewicz said. It was also reported that the Industrial Telecommunications Institute in Warsaw, which makes radar systems, confirmed that it had signed an agreement for cooperation on the project with Boeing in May 2003. The U.S. State Department confirmed that it is Poland’s decision whether to become involved in any missile defense system but the United States welcomes allied participation. “It’s up to them to decide how and whether they will be involved,” said State Department press officer Tom Casey.
        Such a site would, as the Prime Minister noted, benefit Poland with enhanced security commitments by the United States. It would also be a major step toward discouraging countries’ reliance, perhaps especially in Europe, upon mutual vulnerability to nuclear attacks as the basis of strategic stability. For the United States, such a base would potentially be useful to allow additional interceptors a chance to intercept a missile coming from the Middle East over the pole and toward America. Russia continues to express concern that such Europe-based sites could negate the threat of its offensive nuclear arsenal against the U.S., but the U.S. continues to emphasize that ground-based midcourse defenses such as those which could possibly be put in Poland would be very likely useless against any Russian missile attack over the pole.  (Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

Hackett on Topol-M Tests, Space Defenses

James Hackett writes in the Washington Times of the numerous reports of Russia’s Topol-M test of a maneuvering warhead on November 1, which he labels both “breathless” and perhaps even to some degree “hype.” Hackett adds a few details about the Russian test which have not previously reported, including that the test included three independently targetable warheads, that the missile is equipped with faster burning engines designed to shorten the boost phase, that 46 single-warhead missiles have been fielded to date, and that 350 more armed with multiple warheads are eventually to replace the SS-25 missiles being phased out.
        Hackett notes the irony behind Russia’s “Cold War”-like attempt to overcome U.S. missile defenses which are not even designed or capable of defending against Russian missiles in type or number: “you would think the Cold War never ended. …[the Russians are] ignoring the inconvenient fact that the U.S. does not intend to attack Russia.”
        Hackett emphasizes too the significance such Russian developments have for U.S. missile defense efforts, namely, that they reinforce the arguments for going to space. The proliferation of the technologies to evade interceptors in midcourse and terminal phase make all the more necessary space-based interceptors. An excerpt:

A Nov. 2 report in Moscow Gazeta boasted that Russia’s new weapons will be able to overcome America’s missile defenses, noting these new weapons could only be stopped by a layer of space-based interceptors that could strike them before their final phase of flight. That is why, the article says, Moscow keeps pushing a U.N. resolution to ban weapons in space.

The Russians are right in recognizing the importance of weapons in space. The best way to stop a missile launched from an unknown location deep inland—and off-road mobile launchers can go anywhere—is from overhead. When technologies such as rapid ascent rockets and multiple maneuvering warheads spread to China, North Korea and Iran, defenses in space will be urgently needed.

It is not wise to wait until the offense gains too much advantage over the defense. The Pentagon should put more resources at an earlier date into the initial step of designing an architecture for space-based missile defenses, and get on with the developing a weapon that can perform that mission.

The full text is well worth reading: (More »»») 

» More stories on: Analysis, Maneuverable Warheads, Space-Based Systems

» Missile details: SS-N-6

Japan Plans to Acquire 124 PAC-3 Interceptors for Defense

The Japanese Defense Agency is planning to acquire 124 Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) defensive interceptor missiles by fiscal 2010. The first 32 interceptors will be purchased from the United States, designed to be deployed at the military air bases perhaps as early as next year, and the remainder domestically produced in Japan. The move represents a very salutary and promising shift in international acceptance of the threat from ballistic missiles and the need to pursue active defense systems.
        Kyodo reports that the missiles will be able to hit cruise missiles at an altitude of up to 20 kilometers, and that they will supplement the sea-based interceptors that will be a part of Japan’s defensive system based on Aegis destroyers, also of US origin. “Defensive coverage is limited and other areas (not covered) will be dependent on interception from Aegis ships,” a senior military officer is quoted as saying.
        The missiles imported from the United States are said to cost around 500 million yen each, but the remainder will be produced by the domestic Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. company which is licensed to produce the interceptors. The joint production deal with Mitsubishi implements an agreement that was signed in March whereby the Bush administration authorized Japan to co-produce Patriots.
        The plans for deployment include Tokyo and six other major urban centers, as well as four military bases in Saitama, Shizuoka, Gifu and Fukuoka prefectures; the bases will each receive four PAC-3 launch systems between 2006 and 2010. There will also be a total of two backup units overall. Of these 18 systems, 15 of them will have eight missiles each.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Japan

Taiwan Legislature Committee Votes Down Patriot Purchases

The Taiwanese legislative defense committee voted to cancel the NT$10.9 billion budget which had been set aside for the purchase of three PAC-3 Patriot missile interceptors, and another NT$40 million for the purchase of 12 P-3C anti-submarine aircraft.

        Taiwan Headlines notes:

In support of their decision to cancel the funding, opposition party lawmakers cited the results of the referendum held in tandem with the 2004 presidential elections that failed to garner the necessary majority required to validate the proposal. They went on to say that the government should respect the people’s choice as Taiwanese citizens to “veto the purchase of anti-missile weapons systems from the United States.” When approached to comment on the subject, Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Lee Wen-chung said that the upcoming joint committee meeting could still reverse the verdict… “[The lawmakers are] simply barbaric,” said Huang Shih-cho of the Taiwan Solidarity Union. His words were mirrored by Chet Yang, secretary of Taiwan North Society who said, “(The Taiwanese) cannot continue to live at the mercy of these so-called legislators.” Yang said that Beijing is constantly strengthening its military and estimated that, by year’s end, there may be one thousand missiles pointed toward Taiwan. He urged the public to support the purchase so Taiwan could protect itself…

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Taiwan

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

Ivanov: Russia Maintains Offensive Nuclear Deterrent

In a meeting with top military commanders and President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov declared that Russia maintains adequate nuclear deterrent capabilities with its strategic forces. Russia’s nuclear forces “are still able not only to secure deterrence of an aggression against our country and its allies, but also guarantee an adequate answer to any aggressor,” Ivanov was cited by the Itar-Tass as saying.
        “The level of preparedness at the present time has allowed making several successful launches from positional areas, air and sea missile carriers. Early warning systems have timely detected all launches of Russian and foreign inter-continental ballistic missiles and carrier rockets,” Ivanov said.
        Ivanov also noted that the Russian army and navy presently number 1,134,800 officers and men, and that this number will be reduced to 1,100,000 men by 2011. He further noted that six new intercontinental range missiles would be delivered in 2006—probably referring to Topol-M missiles. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Lockheed Continues Study of Ship-Launched Threat

Lockheed Martin continues its study on how to meet the threat of ship-launched ballistic missiles which could be delivered against a U.S. city from a ship or freighter a few hundred kilometers offshore, notes UPI. David Kier, Vice-President of Lockheed Martin’s Protection Division, is quoted as saying, “They don’t need intercontinental ballistic missile to attack us. An enemy could put a SCUD on a tramp steamer and launch it off the coast.” Kier’s remarks are similar to the warnings Donald Rumsfeld has made on a number of occasions.
        In August 2005, Defense Daily quoted Kier as discussing Lockheed’s internal study to explore these threats. UPI’s story reports that Lockheed is furthermore working to

…to develop a system called Passive Coherent Locator (PCL) that could detect such a ship-launched missile and feed accurate tracking information into the existing national missile defense command-and-control system for a response.

The PCL system involves a network of sensors that could be operational from Washington to Boston within two years of government funding and along the entire U.S. coastline some years later.

Some 75 percent of the total U.S. population of 290 million people and 75 percent of its military bases are within 200 miles of the coast. The number of potential launch platforms is immense, with 130,000 registered merchant ships in 195 countries, NWIS said.

Thousands of SCUDs and other inexpensive short-range ballistic missiles have been dispersed, sold worldwide with some in countries where terrorist groups operate openly.

Iran test-launched a tactical ballistic missile from a ship last year and the threat has become much worse with the rapid proliferation of cruise missiles. China has already supplied many to Iran.

Some 70 countries already possess an estimated 75,000 anti-ship cruise missiles and many of them could be easily converted to land-attack weapons. At least 10 nations already have land-attack cruise missiles and their number is increasing, NWIS said. …

During congressional testimony early this year, Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry “Trey” Obering, director of the Missile Defense Agency, said he was “concerned about” the potential for a ship-launched missile attack on the United States. “There is a difference of opinion in terms of whether that constitutes a real threat, but that’s something I’m personally concerned about. So we’re working on it.”

More recently, Obering told reporters: “We launched a SCUD off an ocean-going platform … It was very easy to do.” …

Lockheed Martin’s PCL has received some assistance in system verification from the government, including defense agencies and NASA, Kier said.

         The UPI story brings attention to important work being done to consider this near term threat. The story, however, seems to confuse the difference between ballistic missile and cruise missiles—although both could of course be launched from a ship. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Ship-Launched Threat

Jane’s Notes Trends of Maneuverable, Ship-Launched Missiles

In part of the executive overview to the new edition of Jane’s Strategic Weapons Systems publication, Duncan Lennox summarizes two features receiving relatively new attention in the missile defense community: ship-launched missiles and maneuverable reentry vehicles which are a sort of hybrid between ballistic and cruise missile technologies, two issues frequently referenced on Missilethreat.com.
        The ship-launched threat is relevant for rogue states or even terrorists who might acquire a SCUD or other primitive missile, equip it with a WMD payload, and deliver it from a short distance off the coast of a major U.S. city. The 1998 Rumsfeld Report warned of such a threat. As Secretary of Defense, Rumsfeld has repeatedly noted that rogue states have tested missiles in this configuration and that the near term threat remains, as have other administration officials. Missilethreat.com maintains an archive of related stories. “The ship-launched threat is one that needs to be taken seriously,” Lennox notes.
        As for the development of maneuverable reentry vehicles, this applies especially to Russia’s continued announcements over the last two years that its new ballistic missiles, the Topol-M and the Bulava, are armed with some sort of hypersonic payload which would be capable of maneuvering in its midcourse and terminal phase, and thereby evading the sort of ground-based, midcourse ballistic missile defenses currently being fielded in Alaska and California. On this point, Lennox observes, “the sum conclusion is that in the future, the ballistic missile and nuclear warhead threat situation is going to become more complex and international in nature, with whole regions likely to be involved rather than just two individual countries.” Less unclear, however, is the extent to which long-range ICBMs would be able to maneuver significantly in their boost phase, when the missile is working to obtain altitude and speed necessary to travel long distances.  (More »»») 

» More stories on: Maneuverable Warheads, Ship-Launched Threat

First Arrow-2 Interceptor Delivered

Boeing delivered the first “Arrow 2” interceptor to the Israel Air Force on October 31, reports Jane’s Defense Weekly. The companies involved would not disclose the exact number of Arrow missiles scheduled for manufacture, but an Israel defense source is quoted as saying that there are weekly deliveries of “several missile components” from Boeing, and that Israel has two operational Arrow batteries, which each reportedly need 100 missiles. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Israel

» Missile system details for: Arrow

Russians Said to Proliferate Stolen German Missile Tech to Syria, Iran

The German news magazine “Focus” reports on November 5 that the Berlin government has warned German defense industry that certain Russian criminals have been transferring German technology to Iran and Syria.

Apparently, high-quality technology, which is sold to Russian companies in good faith, goes directly to Iranian or Syrian missile workshops.

Using Moscow as a hub, the Tehran regime, in particular, is increasingly purchasing German top products for the expansion of its arsenals of weapons of mass destruction. Measuring devices, as well as drive and control systems for the so-called Shahab-3 programme, are mostly made in Germany: the new missile, which is to be equipped with nuclear warheads, with an envisaged range of 3,500 km, could hit also European targets precisely.

The present “early warning letter” to the German industry, which is based mainly on information from the Federal Intelligence Service [Bundesnachrichtendienst], mentions 15 companies in Moscow, St Petersburg, and Samara that are regarded as procurers for Iranian arms manufacturers. An institute at Moscow Technical University is also among the addresses that are used as cover.

Syria, also served via Russia, needs the German technology for its old Scud missiles, which are primarily aimed at Israel. At present, there is a high demand for systems to improve target accuracy.

 (Article, Link) 

» Text of Focus report on Russian transfers

» More stories on: Iran, Proliferation, Russia, Syria

Tokyo Governor: U.S. Cannot Win War Against China Because PRC Does Not Value Human Life

On November 4 the Asahbi Shimbun newspaper quotes Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara as saying that the United States could not possibly win a war against China because Beijing “holds no value at all for human life.”

Ishihara, no stranger to hawkish and controversial remarks, said the means of countering the threat from China would be through economic containment by strengthening ties with India and Russia… “Wars are a war of attrition of lives. China holds no value at all for human life and can start a war without any concerns,” he said. “We are now in a state of tension far more dangerous than during the Cold War period when the United States and the former Soviet Union were at odds.” The Tokyo governor warned: “If tensions mount between the United States and China, the two sides could pull the trigger on each other. Then, the more the fire expands, the United States, which has a civil society that highly values human life, would not be able to win… We believe Japan is being protected under the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, but it is a very unreliable treaty,” he said. “If China were to fire a nuclear weapon with the aim of blasting the Japan-U.S. security program, the target will likely be either Tokyo or Okinawa. I want my friends in the United States to know that such a circumstance is becoming real.” Touching on China’s successful experiment in June in launching a ballistic missile from its new submarine, Ishihara said, “It is an extremely grave historical fact that China owns nuclear arms and has succeeded in the experiment with a high degree of precision.”

 (Link) 

» More stories on: China

Russia Tests New Maneuvering Warhead on Topol-M; Trajectory Chosen to Avoid Alaskan Radar

On November 1 Russia conducted a major test of its new maneuverable warhead system and of its Topol-M (RS-12M1) ballistic missile system. The missile was launched from the Kapustin Yar facility in Russia, and traveled a relatively short distance to the Balkhash testing range in Kazakhstan.
        An excerpt from Kommersant notes that the launch trajectory was somewhat unique:

A RS-12M1 Topol-M intercontinental missile with the new warhead was tested in Kazakhstan yesterday. The launch from a mobile launcher was the sixth test of the system intended to overcome American antiballistic defenses. This was the first launch to take place not at the Kura testing ground at Plesetsk [sic] in Kamchatka, but at the Kapustin Yar ground, part of the Balkhash complex in Priozersk, Kazakhstan. The change was made began the radar system at Kura is in such poor condition that it would not be able to [monitor] maneuvers the warheads carry out after separating from the intercontinental missiles, while American facilities in Alaska would be able to. In Kazakhstan, the Russians were able to control everything themselves.

Strange Reporting

        The reports on this test by major media outlets have, however, been remarkably contradictory. Some sources reported that the test was of the SS-25 Topol rather than the SS-27 Topol-M. Most said the missile was launched from Kapustin Yar; but Interfax quoted Strategic Missile Forces spokesman Colonel Alexander Vovk as saying that the missile was launched from the Plesetsk facility in northern Russia. Others still had initially reported it was launched from Kamchatka. (The Kommersant report quoted above oddly says that Plesetsk is on the far eastern Kamchatka peninsula, rather than in northern Russia.) (More »»») 

» Xinhua on test

» RIA Novosti on Topol-M test

» Pravda on missile test

» Interfax on Topol-M test, warhead capabilities

» More stories on: Maneuverable Warheads, Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-N-6

» Missile system details for: Kapustin Yar Missile Test Complex

Text of U.S.-Japan Alliance Report

The Japanese Kyodo news agency provides the full text of the “US-Japan Alliance: Transformation and Realignment for the Future,” the interim report on the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan, adopted Saturday by Japan and the United States. The 14-page report has been called one of the most significant in decades between the two countries.
        As it relates to ballistic missile defense, the report notes that there will be considerable cooperation, potential deployments of Patriot and SM-3 interceptors, and the near-term deployment of an X-band radar, which would be useful for the detection and tracking of a missile launched against either Japan or the U.S. Some excerpts:

• Emphasizing that BMD plays a critical role in deterring and defending against ballistic missile attacks, and can dissuade other parties from development and proliferation of ballistic missiles, both sides stressed the value of closely coordinating improvements in their respective BMD capabilities. To support these BMD systems, they emphasized the critical importance of constant information gathering and sharing, as well as maintaining high readiness and interoperability in light of the minimal time available to respond to a ballistic missile threat. The US will deploy additional complementary capabilities in and around Japan when appropriate, coordinating their operations to support Japan’s missile defense operations. Close coordination between respective BMD command and control systems will be critical to effective missile defense operations.
• The optimum site for deployment in Japan of a new US X-Band radar system will be examined. Through timely information sharing, this radar will support capabilities to intercept missiles directed at Japan and capabilities for Japan’s civil defense and consequence management. In addition, as appropriate, the US will deploy active defenses, such as Patriot PAC-3 and Standard Missile (SM-3) to support US treaty commitments.

        Full text of report: (More »»») 

» Full text via BBC Monitoring

» More stories on: Allies, Japan

» Missile system details for: Forward-Based X-Band Radar-Transportable

Russia Shipping Four S-300P Complexes to Belarus in 2006

The Belarusian news agency Belapan quotes Colonel Igor Azarenok, the commander of Belarusian Western Operational Command, as saying that the first S-300 PS missile complexes will be delivered to the 115th air defence missile brigade stationed in Brest in March 2006, and that all four will have been shipped by the autumn. A contract for the S-300 was reportedly concluded on September 10. (Article, Link) 

» Belpan report on S-300P contract

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