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Russia Tests SS-19 Missile

Russia test fired an RS-18 (SS-19) intercontinental ballistic missile October 29 from the Baikonur cosmodrome in neighboring Kazakhstan, Russian news agencies reported.  The missile's warhead successfully traveled eastward to the missile testing ground on the Kamchatka peninsula.  The test was intended to check the continued effectiveness of the missile's flight systems. The RS-18s are specially equipped to overcome missile defense systems.  The Itar-Tass news agency notes that Russia has some 160 of the SS-19 missile, and that they are equipped with countermeasures to resist American missile defense systems. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-19 Mod 1, SS-19 Mod 2

THAAD Intercept Test Successful

On October 27, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) successfully intercepted a ballistic missile target at the Pacific Missile Range Facility off the island of Kauai in Hawaii.  The exo-atmospheric test involved a SCUD-type target ballistic missile, a single-stage or non-separating target.  This intercept marks the fourth of four intercept tests of THAAD, and the third at the Pacific Missile Range facility.  This test is also the last for THAAD to attempt to intercept a unitary or Scud-type missile: future intercept tests will be against more complicated separating targets.  THAAD is the first missile defense system designed to intercept short, medium and long range ballistic missiles both inside and outside the atmosphere.   (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)

Hackett: Re-election Strategy or New Cold War?

James Hackett provides an analysis of Russia's upcoming elections for the October 25 edition of Peace and Freedom Magazine. Flushed with profits from the re-nationalized oil and gas industries, President Vladimir Putin has improved Russia's military, developing "the Topol-M mobile ballistic missile, the Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile, a new multiple-warhead missile, a new evading warhead, the S-400 missile interceptor, fifth-generation fighter planes and four new missile-firing submarines." Putin has used Russia's newly empowered military to confront the West.

 

He has resumed long-range nuclear bomber flights, opposes missile defenses in Europe, claims the North Pole for Russia and suspends cooperation under the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty. He also sells air defense missiles to Syria and nuclear technology to Iran, suspends gas and oil shipments to pressure other countries, and threatens both to withdraw from the Intermediate Nuclear forces (INF) treaty and to target NATO countries by basing missiles in Russia's Kaliningrad enclave.

 

Constitutionally, Putin cannot serve more than two consecutive terms. However, Hackett believes Putin's successor will likely be a subservient non-personality, like the new Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, who would serve one four year term, following which Putin could legally return to the Kremlin.  Hackett concludes that it is difficult to discern to what degree Putin's anti-Western rhetoric is part of the run-up to the election, or a legitimate reflection of a new dangerous turn for Russia, and it will only become more clear after the Russian Presidential election in Spring 2008. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Russian Missile Defenses

India Tests Agni-1

On October 24, India successfully test fired its nuclear-capable Agni-1 ballistic missile from a test range in the eastern state of Orissa. The test is the second this month, following an earlier October 5 launch. The Agni-1 has a range of 700 kilometers (420 miles), making it capable of striking at most targets within Pakistan. The launch was conducted by India's recently-established strategic armed forces, signaling Agni-1's official induction into the million-plus military, defense experts said. "It is a major success," the official added. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - Foreign, India

» Missile details: Agni, Agni-1

President Bush Speech on Missile Defense at National Defense University

On October 23, President George Bush visited the National Defense University.  His speech covered both the war on terror and ballistic missile defense.  The president highlighted his administration's successes in deploying a missile defense system.

The first step we took was to withdraw from the ABM Treaty...The second step we took was to make missile defense operational, while continuing our research and development efforts. Instead of spending decades trying to develop a perfect shield, we decided to begin deploying missile defense capabilities as soon as the technology was proven ready -- and then build on that foundation by adding new capabilities as they matured... The third step we took was to reach out to the world and involve other nations in the missile defense effort. Since 2001, we've worked closely with countries such as Israel, and Italy, and Germany, and Japan, and the Netherlands, and Britain, and others on missile defense... As a result of this collaboration, missile defense has gone from an American innovation to a truly international effort to help defend free nations against the true threats of the 21st century.

He also praised the new systems by citing their performance during North Korea's missile tests in July, 2006 when Pyongyang tested missiles the intelligence community believes are capable of reaching the United States, noting that:

Had these tests taken place just a few years earlier, they would have underscored America's vulnerability to a ballistic missile attack. Instead, because of the decisions we took in 2001, and because of the hard work of people in this room, our military had in place a capability to track the North Korean vehicle and engage it if it threatened our country. So the test North Korea intended to showcase its power became a demonstration that the pursuit of ballistic missiles will ultimately be fruitless— because America and our allies are building and deploying the means to defend against this threat.

President Bush continued by stressing that the next task is to defend Europe and the U.S. from a missile attack from the greater Middle East. "Our intelligence community assesses that, with continued foreign assistance, Iran could develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States and all of Europe before 2015. If it chooses to do so, and the international community does not take steps to prevent it, it is possible Iran could have this capability. And we need to take it seriously." The President has proposed that the U.S. deploy ten missile interceptors in Poland and an X-Band radar facility in the Czech Republic to provide a limited defense from a small scale missile attack from Iran. He also voiced support for involving other defenses in Romania, Bulgaria and Greece to protect the vulnerable parts of Europe from a shorter range missile attack. President Bush unequivocally repeated that the missile defense planned for Europe is not intended to diminish Russia's strategic nuclear deterrent. On the contrary, the U.S. wishes to engage and cooperate with Russia in deploying and maintaining a strong missile defense system.

The President concluded by articulating the clear strategic benefit of deploying a missile defense system.

A terrorist regime that can strike America or our allies with a ballistic missile is likely to see this power as giving them free rein for acts of aggression and intimidation in their own neighborhoods. But with missile defenses in place, the calculus of deterrence changes in our favor. If this same terrorist regime does not have confidence their missile attack would be successful, it is less likely to engage in acts of aggression in the first place. We would also have more options for dealing with their aggression if deterrence fails...Missile defense also strengthens our counter-proliferation efforts...By deploying effective defenses, we reduce incentives to build ballistic missiles--because rogue regimes are less likely to invest in weapons that cannot threaten free nations...Missile defense also helps us dissuade nations from developing nuclear weapons. Through our missile defense partnerships with nations in Asia and Europe and the Middle East, we can help friends and allies defend against missile attack. These defenses will build their confidence. And these defenses will make it less likely that they will feel the need to respond to the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea by developing nuclear weapons of their own.

Full text of the NDU remarks: (More »»») 

» More stories on: Policy, European Missile Defenses

Taiwan To Develop 'Blackout Bomb'

Taiwan may develop a non-lethal graphite bomb designed to disable rival China's power supplies, according an October 21 report by the United Daily News.  The so-called "blackout bomb" would be carried by Hsiungfeng 2E cruise missiles, and in the outbreak of hostilities would be designed to paralyze the power systems of China's southeastern coastal cities.  The proposed warheads, which have yet to be funded by the Taiwan parliament, would sprinkle a cloud of chemically treated carbon fibers over power supplies, causing them to short-circuit, but without killing people.  The United States is said to have used a similar graphite bomb against Iraq in the Gulf War, wiping out 85 percent of its electrical supply. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Taiwan

Cooper, Pfaltzgraff, and Berman: Don't Ignore Sea- and Space-Based Missile Defense

An opinion piece by Henry Cooper, Robert Pfaltzgraff and Ilan Berman, calling for a new approach to missile defense, was featured in the October 22 edition of Defense News.  Their article responds to comments by Missile Defense Agency head Lieutenant General Obering made July 23, which dismissed critics who advocate different operational concepts for American defense and appears to equate them with those who oppose missile defense entirely.  The authors criticize the Missile Defense Agency's approach thus far which focuses on ground-based midcourse defenses, which unfortunately neglects sea and space assets which can better intercept missiles and better protect the country's vulnerabilities, often for less money.

For less than 10 percent of the MDA's $10 billion-per-year budget, the Navy has amassed an impressive test record: nine successful intercepts in 11 attempts with its SM-3 interceptor (10 for 12 if the Navy's successful test of its SM-2 Block 4 is also counted). Impressive indeed, compared with the five-for-10 record of the Alaska ground-based interceptor system...At a price tag of just $25 million for software fixes, investing in this expanded capability is something of a no-brainer...Then there is the matter of ship deployment. Of the 18 being given the SM-3 intercept capability, 16 are headed to the Pacific (the six already there are mostly protecting Japan). For just $62 million more, the Navy could begin outfitting another nine of the 80 Aegis ships around the world and deploy a contingent of 11 to defend against terrorists launching Scuds off our East Coast, as well as against Iranian ballistic missiles.

Space defenses are equally critical because they are best positioned to intercept missiles during their weak boost phase of launch, and because the U.S. is increasingly dependent on satellites of all kinds which are themselves susceptible to missile attacks.

As the anti-satellite test carried out by China in January amply demonstrated, a growing number of U.S. adversaries and strategic competitors are seeking to exploit, even dominate, space for military and commercial purposes. If the United States does not protect its interests in space--including through the deployment of missile defenses--we may soon find our security, which is critically dependent on our space systems, at the mercy of nations that have.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI)

Third Interceptor Deployed at Vandenberg in July; Twenty-Three Now in Silos

The Lompoc Record reports that a third interceptor was quietly placed within a silo at Vandenberg Air Force Base in July, and a fourth and final one will be emplaced by December 2008.    Rick Lehner, spokesman for the Missile Defense agency, noted that the relative delay for emplacing interceptors at Vandenberg has been a result of funding: "It was primarily a matter of funding and selecting a silo at Vandenberg for our use...It's just a very large expense, if you will, and quite frankly there have been other priorities...There is not an infinite amount of money available. It's very finite."  Twenty missile-defense interceptors now sit on alert at Fort Greely, Alaska.  The total number of interceptors currently planned for deployment over three sites is 54: 40 in Alaska, 4 at Vandenberg and 10 in Europe.  Rick Lehner is quoted as adding that, "There aren't any plans to have anything over and above that 54."

  (Article, Link) 

Economist: Missile Defense in Europe

The Economist published an analysis the U.S. plan to deploy ten Ground Based Interceptors in Poland and an X-band radar facility in the Czech Republic. While Poland and the Czech Republic are historically more pro-American than other European countries, the United States has faced difficulty in winning public support for the plan. Instead of offering sweeteners to Poland to accept a deal that angers neighboring Russia, "the diplomatic notes requesting the bases even came with prepared replies attached." The highhanded tone was also used in the Czech Republic, were possible public health risks associated with the radar were not directly addressed. The Economist concludes that:

Better diplomacy could ease worries in Poland and the Czech Republic. But two questions remain. One is whether missile defences, hugely profitable to contractors, will work in reality. The other is why Russia is making such a fuss. Both geography and arithmetic support the American argument that the system is meant to counter a handful of missiles that might one day be fired from Iran, rather than the Kremlin's colossal nuclear arsenal, which can be launched from land, sea and air.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: European Missile Defenses, Allies

China ASAT Test Exposed U.S. Vulnerabilities

At a change of command ceremony at the U.S. Strategic Command, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates observed that the January 11 Chinese anti-satellite test revealed the U.S.'s current vulnerabilities in space, and pointed out again the need for better defended satellites.  In the test, China destroyed one of its own weather satellites in low Earth orbit using an anti-satellite weapon aboard a ballistic missile.  "It is through space we monitor the weapons we already know exist," Gates said. "It is through space we can track adversaries attempting to acquire these weapons and then do something about it. It is through space that our troops and our leadership monitor the battlefield and communicate with each other. Therefore, it is space we must protect, especially as we expand its use." (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Policy

Russia Launches SS-25 Topol Missile

On October 18, Russia reported that it had successfully test-fired an RS-12 Topol (SS-25) intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk space center.  The warhead aboard the missile traveled successfully to its target at the testing grounds located on the far eastern Kamchatka peninsula.  In service since 1988, the RS-12 is a road-mobile single-warhead ICBM, similar in size and shape to the U.S. Minuteman ICBM. The launch from the space center in north Russia had been conducted to assess the possibility of extending the ten year long service life of Topol missiles. The missile will be replaced over the coming decade by a mobile version of the Topol-M (SS-27) missile, which can carry up to six nuclear warheads.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - Foreign, Russia

Kuwait to Purchase Patriot Interceptors

Kuwait is planning to purchase a number of defensive Patriot interceptors from the United States, according to a statement made by Kuwaiti Defense Minister Jaber al-Mubarak al-Sabah, as reported by the state news agency KUNA on October 10.  Sheikh Jaber said that "Kuwait has signed deals, not for airplanes, but for materiel such as ships and Patriot missiles."  He did not mention the number or type of Patriots which are to be purchased.  In July, the U.S. announced plans for a series of arms deals worth at least $20 billion with Saudi Arabia and five other oil-rich Gulf states. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

Russia Tests Gazelle Missile Interceptor

Russia reports the successful test of a missile defense interceptor from the Sary Shagan test site on on Lake Balkash in Kazakhstan, according to Space Forces spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Alexei Zolotukhin.  Zolotukhin said that the test launch of a Gazelle interceptor was made to assess extending the service life of the A-135 missile defense system which has long been deployed around Moscow. 

"A combined team of the Space Forces, the Sary Shagan testing site and industry officials fired a short-range interceptor missile at a target missile," said Zolotukhin.  According to the same report, the Sary Shagan site "recently has experienced a spate of testing by the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, which have tested six anti-missile systems, 12 air defence systems, seven types of missile interceptors, 12 types of ground-to-air missiles and 18 radars at the site." (Article, Link) 

» Additional report of Russian interceptor test

» More stories on: Russian Missile Defenses, Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile system details for: System A-135, Gazelle (SH-08/ABM-3)

First PAC-3 Missiles Delivered to the Netherlands

Lockheed Martin delivered the first Patriot (PAC-3) defensive interceptors to government and military representatives of The Netherlands.  The Netherlands was the first international customer to buy the PAC-3 interceptor in 2005.  "Today, The Netherlands is proud to be the first international launch customer for the PAC-3 Missile, just as it is proud to have been an international launch customer of the Patriot weapon system," said Major General Alexander Besselink, Director of Weapon Systems and Agencies for The Netherlands Defence Materiel Organisation.  "With the introduction of full PAC-3 capabilities, the Netherlands is prepared for the future and, together with the United States, continues to be at the forefront of air defense."  Currently, Germany, Japan, Israel, Kuwait, Taiwan, Greece, Saudi Arabia and Spain have deployed Patriot missiles. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

Barak: Israel Missile Defense Capabilities Rising

Israel will have a shield that will protect it from "about 90 percent of Shihab to Kassam rocket attacks within a few years," Defense Minister Ehud Barak told the Knesset State Control Committee on Tuesday.

 

Furthermore, we are giving high priority to the production of a system involving several projects, which, within a few years, will provide protection for Israel from about 90 percent of all attempts to fire rockets at us, from Shihab missiles to Kassams," the defense minister said. "In the longer range, we will have, for many reasons, to achieve a much higher interception level.

The Iron Dome, a kinetic interception system designed to eliminate Kassam rockets, will be ready in a few years. The Iron Dome is just one of missile defense systems currently under development, along with the Arrow 2. When completed, the Iron Dome and the Arrow 2 missile defense layers will buttress the existing system which includes a series of Patriot missile batteries and Arrow missiles.

Israel is considering upgrading its current Patriot missile batteries to the PAC-3 model, and debating whether to deploy the Skyguard system, a version of what was once known as the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) missile defense which utilizes lasers to target short range missiles. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Israel

» Missile system details for: Arrow, Patriot, Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL), Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)

Oberg on the Weaponization of Space

James Oberg writes on the weaponization of space in the October 9 edition of The Space Review. Oberg reacts to the clear media bias against U.S. space programs, and charges that the media further encourages inflammatory Russian remarks about having to match the U.S. military presence in space. Oberg argues:

Like children drawing glee in poking a stick into an anthill to see the turmoil they can cause, or teenagers throwing rocks at a chained junkyard dog just to hear him snarl, some elements of the Western news media seem to evince diabolical delight in seeing just how they can inflame good old fashioned Russian paranoia about "enemy threats", especially from the United States. Regardless of the rationale, such exercises leave measurable scars on the international diplomatic scene. ...

 

To fabricate and encourage Russian fears of the imminent American "weaponization of space", then, isn't merely a matter of politically useful alarmism and ideologically satisfying posturing. To the degree that it reinforces Russian fears and encourages Russian militaristic responses, it is downright dangerous and irresponsible. Shame on the space-war fear mongers: they are part of the problem, not part of the solution, which is accuracy.

Most recently, articles in the New York Times recognizing the 50th anniversary of the launch of Sputnik cited that the Soviet satellite motivated Eisenhower to enter a "scary new world of space arms" by "publicly encouraged peaceful uses of space even while spending billions to explore futuristic weaponry like death rays fired from rocket ships." Oberg argues that the article ignores the most important details of Eisenhower's space policy, such as "deliberately assign[ing] America's satellite project to a research rocket rather than a weapons rocket... and establish[ing] a civilian-controlled space exploration administration (something the Soviets never did)."  Also, the New York Times's article omits critical information about the Soviet's history in space.

Not discussed here are the orbital thermonuclear weapons designed, tested, and deployed by the USSR in the 1960s, whose operation was expressly forbidden by the Outer Space Treaty of 1967-a scrap of paper that provided no protection to their use in a sneak attack on the United States. Not mentioned... are the handguns that the Russians are allowed to pack at the International Space Station (NASA's website doesn't mention them either), or the much more serious space-to-space attack vehicles (on standby in earth-based launch tubes) whose very existence Moscow denied for decades.

The revisionist perspective of history has a profound effect today, as the U.S. deploys the first components of a missile defense system, and considers future space-based components.  The Russian government, supported by the U.S. media, has hitherto condemned these efforts as sparking a new weaponization of space.  Russian Colonel General Vladimir Popovkin recently claimed Russia would "not allow any other country to play the master in outer space. The consequences of positioning strike forces in orbit will be too serious." Once again, the facts of the planned space system are ignored, Oberg suggests: "Proposed space-based anti-missile systems will be designed with guidance sensors that depend on hot rocket exhausts and large missile skins, the sort of thing you'd see during an actual launch. Satellites orbiting passively high above Earth are not nearly as big as missiles, and are nowhere near as hot. They usually aren't firing rocket engines at all. Anti-missile systems of the type under consideration probably could not even detect such targets, much less hit them."  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Russia, Space-Based Systems

Obering on European Missile Defense

Lieutenant General Henry Obering, head of the Missile Defense Agency, discussed the importance of deploying a comprehensive missile defense system in the October edition of Arms Control Today. Obering argues that the U.S. must field a comprehensive missile defense system to prepare against potential long-range missile attacks from rogue states such as North Korea and Iran, but also to change their calculations for acquiring offensive missiles, making those expenditures less attractive.

With ballistic missiles and missile technologies widely available on the global market, we expect an acceleration of ballistic missile and nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons proliferation... A major factor in this proliferation is the value countries place on these weapons, precisely because historically there has been no defense against them. Without a defense against these weapons, they will continue to be valuable as a means to coerce or intimidate the United States and our allies and friends around the world.

 

With a fully operational missile defense system in place, countries could not depend on using weapons of mass destruction or missile technology to threaten or blackmail the U.S.  Additionally, the fact that countries are utilizing increasingly better protections of their missile stockpiles and launch sites, such as air defenses and underground installations, offensive or preemptive strikes against become less likely to succeed.

Obering stresses that an important component of a future defenses involve a current plan by the U.S. to house ten ground based interceptors in Poland and an X-band radar facility in the Czech Republic. A missile defense system in Europe, however limited, would protect the U.S. and all European countries from long-range missile attacks. Other supplements could be added to this structure to defend more susceptible parts of Europe from short-range missile attacks from Iran. The missile defense plan for Europe not only would protect the U.S. and its European allies, but would not diminish Russia's strategic nuclear deterrent, as "10 ground-based interceptors, would be no match for Russia's strategic offensive missile force, which consists of hundreds of missiles and thousands of warheads." (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: European Missile Defenses, Analysis

Kimball: Of Missiles and Missile Defenses

Daryl G. Kimball, writing for the October edition of Arms Control Today, criticized current missile defense plans and instead argues for a new strategy to reduce the threat posed by offensive missiles. Missile defense poses serious problems, Kimball argues, because "even if [they] can be developed and pass operationally realistic testing, foes can always counter by building sufficient numbers of offensive ballistic missiles to overwhelm a system." Instead, the U.S. should instead focus on closer collaboration with Russia to reduce offensive weapon stockpiles and prevent them from increasing their nuclear stockpiles should the U.S. deploy a missile defense system. Additionally, the U.S. should focus on preventing short and medium range missiles, both because the technology is better developed and because those defenses are less provocative to other global powers like Russia. Lastly, Kimball recommends the U.S. work to enforce and expand the support for the International Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation, which "obliges states to exchange information on missile holdings and testing and exercise restraint with respect to their ballistic missile programs, could become the blueprint for a binding set of limitations on the most destabilizing types of missiles." (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

India Tests Agni-1

On October 5, India successfully test fired the short-range variant of its nuclear-capable Agni-1 ballistic missile which can strike most targets in rival Pakistan, a defence official said.  The Agni-1, which has a range of 700km, was launched from Wheeler Island at mid-morning off the eastern state of Orissa, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: India, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Agni-1

Hackett: Missile Defense Works

James T. Hackett writes in the October 5 edition of The Washington Times discusses the successful September 28 intercept test conducted by the Ground Based Midcourse defense system.  Although the test was a clear success and demonstrated both complexity and effectiveness, Hackett warns that opponents of the system will not be satisfied. A frequent complaint used by opponents of missile defense is to cite inadequate flight tests and a lack of operational testing of ground-based defenses, ignoring the details of the most recent intercept.

A ballistic missile launched from Kodiak, Alaska, flew thousands of miles southeast before being struck and destroyed some 100 miles over the ocean by an interceptor from Vandenberg Air Force Base on the California coast. It was an operational interceptor, same as the nearly two dozen now in silos in Alaska and California, launched from an operational site, using operational command and control, manned by operational crews and tracked by the operational radar at Beale AFB, Calif. If that is not an operational test, what is?

 

Hackett also attacks critics who argue the current system is not flexible enough to accurately identify and destroy real missiles. The current U.S. missile defense plan incorporates sea and land based radars, including the powerful X-band radar that can now discriminate between decoy and authentic missiles more successfully than ever. Hackett concludes the intercept should "quiet even the most severe critics." (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis