MissileThreat.com

British Defense Chief: Iran Could Have Bomb Next Year

British Defense Secretary Liam Fox said responsible statesmanship dictates that one maintain great skepticism about any international consensus that Iran won't have a nuclear weapon for at least three years. (The former head of Mossad, Meir Dagan, has gone on record listing Israel's opinion that Iran won't get the bomb until 2015.) Fox cited the western surprise over the last decade at repeated unforeseen developments in the North Korean nuclear program as support for his plea for caution. Even the Israeli intelligence establishment appears to disagree, with the head of military intelligence citing failed sanctions as part of the reason Iran might go nuclear within two years. (Article, Link) 

Mullen: N. Korea Will Have Nuclear ICBMs in 10 Years

Admiral Michael Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says that North Korea will likely have a nuclear ICBM capability in "five to 10 years." These comments come on the heels of similar sentiments expressed last week in China by Secretary of State Robert Gates. North Korea has set off nuclear explosions in tests twice in recent years, and possesses a long-range ballistic missile program that Pyongyang continues to refine; fitting nuclear warheads to ICBMs involves much more sophisticated technology than mere detonation. (Article, Link) 

» Gates: N. Korea ICBM Threat in 5 Years

Russia Ratifies New START

The upper house of the Russian parliament completed the New START treaty ratification process today. Despite ratification, the rift over appended language (from both the U.S. and Russia) regarding missile defenses persists—it remains to be seen what role this disagreement might play in future conduct by either country. The U.S. Senate stated that the preamble should not be read to limit U.S. missile defenses, while the Russian parliament has expressed the opposite sentiment.

 

Now that the treaty is ratified, "mutual" inspections will resume. (Article, Link) 

Atlantic Missile Defense Exercise

Three Aegis U.S. Navy ships, two Aegis destroyers (the Gonzalez and the Rampage) and a guided missile cruiser (the Monterey), conducted missile tracking exercises in the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend. A test missile was fired from Virginia and all three ships successfully tracked it. This was the first such test in the Atlantic.

 

The Aegis combat system forms the backbone of ship-based U.S. missile defenses, and has been exported to countries like Japan. (Article, Link) 

NATO: European & Russian Missile Shields Separate

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Sec. Gen. of NATO, has said that while Russia and NATO will cooperate on a European missile shield, the two countries should nonetheless maintain "two independent but coordinated systems." Cooperation will consist of information sharing in an effort to enlarge the missile surveillance picture for the region.

 

Rasmussen's statement comes as U.S. and Russian diplomats meet under the rubric of the Enhanced Missile Defense Sub-Working Group in order to discuss the details of missile defense cooperation between the U.S., Russia, and NATO in Europe.

 

This announcement also comes as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev delivers an ultimatum to NATO: if Russia doesn't get a straightforward commitment from NATO for full equality in any missile shield, then Moscow will have no choice but to develop an independent missile defense system and even deploy "an offensive nuclear missile group" in the region. (Article, Link) 

» Enhanced Missile Defense Sub-Working Group Meets

» Medvedev's Threat

Short Interview with Brian Kennedy

Claremont Institute President Brian Kennedy comments on missile defense and China over at the Center for Individual Freedom. (Link) 

Russia Developing a New ICBM

The head of Russian General Engineering (Rosobshemash), a Russian military contractor, has told the ITAR-TASS news agency that a replacement for the mainstay of Russia's ICBM nuclear deterrent, the SS-18, may be completed as early as 2017. 

 

The SS-18, the only 'heavy' (she weighs well over 200 tons) ICBM allowed to Russia under the original Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, has a range (depending on modifications) of 11,000-16,000 km, putting all of the continental United States easily within range. The replacement now under development, brags the head of Rosobshemash, will be unstoppable by either U.S. missile defenses or the NATO missile shield now being developed for Europe. (Article, Link) 

» Missile details: SS-18 Mod 4

Iranian Missile Tests

Iran's Fars news agency is offering the vague announcement that Iran has tested mid-range surface-to-air missiles near the Arak nuclear facility. The tests were a "success." The Iranian government is saying that the tests were conducted in order to bolster Iran's missile defenses. (Article, Link) 

Taiwanese Missile Tests Fail

Taiwan conducted a series of very public surface-to-air and air-to-air missile tests today, with Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou in attendance. Missiles tested included the Sky Bow II, the Hawk, and the Stinger. Six out of 19 missiles failed to perform as planned.

 

Some claim the test is in response to a combination of domestic and international pressures: President Ma Ying-jeou has taken some criticism recently for his cultivation of better cross-strait relations with China, along with his decision to shift the military's focus from foreign threats to disaster relief, all in the face of recent accelerated Chinese military expansion (including the recent surprise flight test of the J-20 stealth aircraft). Although one Taiwanese defense expert in the article states that the less-than-stellar missile test is meant to signal to the U.S. Taiwan's need of a long-stalled deal for F-16s. (Article, Link) 

Russian Duma Debates New START

The Russian Parliament is expected to conduct a final ratification vote on the New START treaty on January 25. In the meantime, Russian lawmakers have been debating ratification, and are working on a response to ratification language from the U.S. Senate declaring the understanding that the treaty would not be read to restrict U.S. missile defenses. The Duma plans a response declaring the right of Russia to withdraw should the U.S. threaten, with missile defenses, Russia's strategic nuclear capability.

 

While neither the added language from the U.S. Senate nor that from the Russian Duma will be part of the actual treaty language, it will no doubt play a role in the future as the U.S. seeks to install and upgrade a missile shield in Europe over the next decade. More sophisticated SM-3 interceptor variations could very well eventually threaten the Russian nuclear arsenal. (Article, Link) 

Cuts to Missile Defense Coming

Reuters reports $2.4 billion in cuts to the Missile Defense Agency, part of a $178 billion reorganization scheme at the Pentagon. (Article, Link) 

Gates: N. Korea ICBM Threat in 5 Years

Shortly after meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao yesterday, Secretary of State Robert Gates told reporters that North Korea was quickly approaching the status of "direct threat" to the United States and that it would possess the ability to strike with an ICBM within five years. While Gates and the U.S. intelligence community expects North Korea's capability to remain limited, the joint progression of its nuclear and missile programs are a cause for concern and amplify the need for further and more energetic negotiations. This tone from Gates is a shift in Obama administration rhetoric, which had focused more on proliferation than the ICBM threat until now.

 

1/13/11 Update: Admiral Michael Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, echoed Gates's language about North Korea. He also stressed that international pressure be consistently applied as North Korea transitions from rule by Kim Jong-il to his son, Kim Jong-un. (Source: Yonhap News Agency)

 

  (Article, Link) 

Japan to Allow Export of SM-3 Block IIA

Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun reports that the Japanese government will likely allow the export of the advanced SM-3 Block IIA interceptor to places like Western Europe. Japan and the U.S. have been developing the interceptor together, and it has been unclear to what extent past Japanese defensive military doctrine would allow arms exports. Such standing doctrine prohibits the Japanese from exporting weapons to countries that are communist, countries under U.N. arms restrictions, or countries that have a good chance of becoming embroiled in war.

 

The SM-3 Block IIA is a centerpiece of the Obama administration's 'Phased Adaptive Approach' to the European missile shield. The Block IIA will be faster and more accurate than its predecessor, the Block IB, which will succeed the current SM-3 interceptors in use. The Block IB is scheduled to come online in 2015; the Block IIA is scheduled for release closer to 2020. (Article, Link) 

Brian Kennedy on National Security & Missile Defense

Claremont Institute President Brian Kennedy spoke at Hillsdale College's Kirby Center in Washington, D.C. on Friday. He spoke about the continuing strategic threats posed by Iran, Russia, and China, and the current inadequacy of U.S. missile defenses to field any one of those threats. He spoke briefly about the recently ratified New START treaty as well. Click HERE, or on the thumbnail, for a link to the 60-minute video.

 

  (Link) 

Russia Seeking "Impenetrable" Missile Shield

General Nikolai Makarov, head of the Russian Armed Force Staff, is boasting that Russia will, by 2020, have a missile shield that will defend against ballistic as well as all manner of cruise missiles. The "foundation" of such a system may be completed as early as this year, and development and deployment will proceed over the course of the next decade. (Article, Link) 

Hezbollah Has 40,000 Rockets For Israel

In the latest Wikileaks revelation, Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi reports to a U.S. congressional delegation in 2009 that Hezbollah has 40,000 rockets that it intends to use in a future conflict with Israel, and Iran has 300 missiles of sufficient range aimed at the Jewish state. A missile launch from Iran would give Israel 10-12 minutes to respond before it reached its target.

 

It is thought that Hezbollah would fire 300-400 missiles a day into Israel; they also possess a number of UAVs that they might use to strategically bomb Israel. In order to address a worst-case scenario, Israel is thus preparing for a major regional war, again in Lebanon and Gaza, so that it might easily cover lesser contingencies as well. Statements from cables also suggest that a future ground-war in Gaza and Lebanon will be more intense and less restricted than the one of 2006. (Article, Link)