November 10, 2003 :: CIA :: News
The CIA’s most recent intelligence estimate to Congress outlines the state of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile capabilities in a number of “countries of concern,” as well as continued proliferation by Russia, China, and North Korea.
Covering developments from January to June of 2003, the estimate names Iran, North Korea, Libya, and Syria as potential threats as regards missiles. The report notes that “Iran’s ballistic missile inventory is among the largest in the Middle East and includes some 1,300-km-range Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and a few hundred short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs)—including the Shahab-1 (Scud-B), Shahab-2 (Scud C), and Tondar-69 (CSS-8).” In addition to developing longer range programs, Iran is working on a “new solid-propellant SRBM, the Fateh-110.” Iran’s efforts continue to be aided with missile “equipment, technology, and expertise” from all three of the major proliferators. The multiple stage version of North Korea’s Taepo Dong-2 ballistic missile is noted for its capability of “reaching parts of the United States with a nuclear weapon-sized payload.” Syria is described as recieving assistance from North Korea and Iran in their developments of longer-range missile programs, such as the SCUD-D. As regards Libya, “with continued foreign assistance, Libya will likely achieve an MRBM capability—a long-desired goal—probably through direct purchase from North Korea or Iran.”
Continued advances are only to be expected, however, given steady proliferation from Russia, China, and North Korea. Russia continued to supply both “ballistic missile-related goods and technical know-how” to Iran, India, and China, which is largely responsible for Iran’s significant successes with the Shahab-3 MRBM. China, which is not a Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) signatory, is the other major proliferator: “Although Beijing has taken some steps to educate firms and individuals on the new missile-related export regulations—offering its first national training course on Chinese export controls in February 2003—Chinese entities continued to work with Pakistan and Iran on ballistic missile-related projects during the first half of 2003. Chinese entity assistance has helped Pakistan move toward domestic serial production of solid-propellant SRBMs and supported Pakistan’s development of solid-propellant MRBMs. Chinese-entity ballistic missile-related assistance helped Iran move toward its goal of becoming self-sufficient in the production of ballistic missiles. In addition, firms in China provided dual-use missile-related items, raw materials, and/or assistance to several other countries of proliferation concern—such as Iran, Libya, and North Korea.”
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