May 13, 2009 :: Analysis
The Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States has released its final report to Congress. It offers some encouraging news and recommendations about the continued development and viability of missile defense in theater, but also leaves much to be desired in its discussion of missile defense deployments, the possibility of an EMP attack, and the desirability of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The "on the one hand, on the other hand" style of the report seems to reflect a division of opinion over the proper approaches to strategic policy.
The chapter on missile defense opens by noting that "Missile defenses are an integral part of the strategic posture of the United States after the Cold War." Iran and North Korea are identified as the two "missile threats of most immediate concern." The commission mentions both the deterrent effect of a missile defense system and its potential for shielding and reassuring allies.
These capabilities may contribute to deterrence by raising doubts in a potential aggressor's mind about the prospects of success in attempts to coerce or attack others. They may contribute to assurance of allies, by increasing their protection and also reducing the risks that the United States would face in protecting them against a regional aggressor.
The commission "strongly supports continued missile defense cooperation with allies" Such as Israel and Japan. This cooperation involves missile defense systems designedto combat short- and medium-range missiles, such as THAAD, PAC 3, and the sea-based Aegis system. Citing current plans to deploy 96 THAAD and 133 sea-based SM-3 interceptors, the commission states that "these numbers should be reviewed if the threat from North Korean or Iranian missiles increases." The gradual expansion of Iranian, Chinese, and North Korean missiles would indeed seem to warrant such a review. Yet these systems may also need to be supplemented by others to form a global and layered defense.
The Commission expresses less confidence in the Ground-Based Interceptors (GBIs) currently deployed in California and Alaska, with ten additional interceptors slated for deployment at a third site in Poland.
This system has demonstrated some capability against unsophisticated threats and should undergo additional system testing to determine its effectiveness against more complex threats that include technologies intended to help in-coming missiles penetrate the defense (so-called penetration aids). Further development and deployment...should depend on results of these tests and on developments in the ICBM threats facing the United States and its allies.
No single system is capable of defending against all threats of course. Yet the Commission misses an opportunity to explore the significant advantages offered by a multi-layered missile defense system.
The Commission recommends that missile defense policy should balance the need for national defense with the "legitimate concerns of Russia and China about strategic stability." In other words, a vigorous pursuit of defensive capabilities might lead Russia or China to "take actions that increase the threat to the United States and its allies and friends," such as enhancing their own arsenals or proliferating missile technologies to others.
The commission ends its report with a discussion of EMP:
Lastly, the United States should take steps to reduce the vulnerability of the nation and the military to attacks with weapons designed to produce electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects. We make this recommendation although the Commission is divided over how imminent a threat this is. Some commissioners believe it to be a high priority threat, given foreign activities and terrorist intentions. Others see it as a serious potential threat, given the high level of vulnerability.
A recommendation for the hardening of America's electrical grid follows. The report leaves unmentioned the potential a multi-layered missile defense system might have in meeting the threat of EMP.
» Strategic Posture Report 2009
» More stories on: Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Weapons
» Missile system details for: Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD), Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3), Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI), Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
