November 11, 2007 :: Analysis
The November 9 edition of Power and Interest News Report provides a detailed analysis of the Israeli Iron Dome project and its relationship with the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The Iron Dome is a planned missile defense system specifically designed to intercept short-range Katyusha and Qassam missiles. The article argues that without an effective defense against short range missiles, peace between the two sides will remain illusive.
Katyusha and Qassam rockets are easily manufactured, costing only several dollars to build. While not particularly lethal, the rockets inflict a serious toll on the Israeli public.
Katyusha rocket makes up 90 percent of Hezbollah's rocket arsenal and has a range of approximately 20 kilometers (12 miles)... During July-August 2006, Hezbollah fired approximately 4,000 Katyusha rockets into Israel, killing 51 Israelis and seriously wounding another 250. Rockets destroyed or severely damaged 2,000 homes, while between 100,000-250,000 civilians fled, at least temporarily, from the north to other parts of Israel. Qassam rockets... are less destructive than Katyushas and have a general range of only three to ten kilometers (1.8-6.2 miles), they are cheap and easy to make, making them the weapon of choice for militants launching attacks on Israel from the Gaza Strip... Qassams have had their most significant impact on the town of Sderot... One third of Sderot's children suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, according to a survey carried out last year, while around half of the population of Sderot has left the town since the rocket attacks intensified.
Militarily, as air strikes have been ineffective in stopping the rocket attacks, military leaders are left with the prospect of reoccupying the Gaza strip or other territories to halt the attacks. So long as the missile attacks continue, the likelihood of war increases and the prospects for peace diminish. Therefore, former Prime Minister and current Defense Minister Ehud Barak argues for the Iron Dome which could remove the threat of rocket attacks from the political equation as negotiations continue. However, the Iron Dome faces significant technical and economic challenges.
It will have to be able to identify the launch of a rocket, analyze the data and feed it to the intercepting missile for launch, all within 20 seconds, the flight time of a Qassam. While it may be possible to surmount the technological obstacles to achieving this, it may not be possible to do so at a reasonable cost... Each interceptor missile will cost between $30,000 and $50,000. The rockets that they will intercept, however, cost only a few dollars to make. Some analysts fear that reliance on Iron Dome may lead to a costly arms race, in which Palestinian militants and Hezbollah would have the advantage.
While the system would be costly to maintain, advocates state it would be less expensive than a prolonged war with the Palestinians and the cost of rebuilding damaged areas of the country. Additionally, if Israelis are confident in the effectiveness of their missile defense system, they may be more willing to make the territorial concessions necessary to create a Palestinian state.
The article concludes, "An anti-rocket system will have to form just one part of Israel's broader defenses against irregular warfare if it is to provide Israel with the security needed to allow it to make the territorial compromises that are probably necessary for peace."
(Article)
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