January 9, 2006 :: Analysis
Conflict between Israel and Iran may well be brewing, suggests Kenneth R. Timmerman in FrontPage Magazine. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s stroke has thrown Israeli politics into turmoil, and might be the starting point of a coming showdown between the Jewish state and the Islamic republic. Timmerman notes that Sharon had made a strategic decision—against the advice of his own generals and intelligence staff—to support U.S. backed nuclear negotiations with Iran led by the EU. With Sharon incapacitated, Israel might pursue other options in the face of escalating Iranian rhetoric and actions.
On January 3, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps began a two-day seminar in Tehran on nuclear-biological-chemical warfare and new defense technologies, including lectures by Iranian experts on electromagnetic pulse weapons, graphite bombs, and laser-guided bombs. On January 4, three battalions of the IRGC began three days of military exercises in the Semnan province, not far from Iran’s main ballistic missile test range. That same day, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, told Iranian TV that Israel will “suffer a great loss” if it attacks Iran, noting that Israel has “no strategic depth” and is “within our range.” In addition, the Russians have agreed to sell S-300 anti-ballistic missile systems to Iran.
In early December, Lieutenant General Dan Halutz, Israel’s military chief of staff, told foreign journalists in Tel Aviv that he believed diplomacy had reached a dead end. When asked by one reporter how far Israel was ready to go to stop Iran’s nuclear projects, Halutz replied, “2,000 kilometers,” the distance by air between Israel and Iran’s main nuclear and missile sites. (Article)
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