July 19, 2007 :: The Economist ::
The Economist critiques Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent suspension of Russia's obligations under the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty. The CFE regulates the number of troops, tanks, artillery and aircraft which can be stationed in Europe. Russia announced that because NATO has not ratified treaty amendments to the CFE from 1999 while Russia has, it would be justified in suspending its obligations under the treaty. NATO has demanded that before they ratify amendments that allow Russia to deploy greater numbers of troops to its restive Southern Republics, Russia must first withdraw all conventional force from Moldova and Georgia. The suspension would take effect in six months to allow for negotiations between the two sides, but the six month window is likely to be only cosmetic.
The planned suspension of the CFE is only part of Russia's new post-Cold War foreign policy. Russia resents NATO's eastward push, the U.S.'s new bases in Romania and Bulgaria and a planned missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Acquiescence caused by its weakness in the 90's has evaporated with the flush of petro-dollars in recent years. Putin is attempting to eliminate older treaties signed in weakness, and reengage in the European political arena by dividing the Europeans from the U.S., and the Eastern Europeans from their Western counterparts. The next target could likely be the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty which banned both superpowers from building or deploying land-based missiles with ranges from 500-5,500 km.
Unfortunately, the U.S. is contributing to the deterioration of security in Europe by "looking askance at binding agreements to limit the two sides' strategic nuclear arsenals after the current Moscow treaty governing them expires in 2012. Meanwhile the counting rules being used (which date from the earlier Start-1 treaty) will lapse in December 2009." The Economist concludes that good Cold War agreements are evaporating because hotheads on both sides refuse to find common ground. (Article)
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