June 12, 2007 :: armscontrolwonk.com :: Analysis
Jeffrey Lewis writes for the ArmsControlWonk.com blog, concerning the curious lack of attention to the robust capabilities of the sea-based missile defense, as compared to the Ground-Based midcourse interceptors currently in contention for Eastern Europe.
At a recent budget hearing of the Atlantic Council, MDA Director General Obering was asked by Representative Ellen Tauscher of the House Strategic Forces subcommittee, whether a mobile Aegis SM-3 might be part of a viable alternative to the European site of ten ground based interceptors. Obering responded with a relative rejection of mobile sea-based missile defenses for Europe in favor of ground based systems. General Obering cited two main sources for his skepticism of mobile defenses.
First, the current configurations of Aegis BMD and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense do not have the ability to counter intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) without extensive and costly modifications. Likewise, mobile system sensors for Aegis BMD and THAAD cannot provide equivalent radar coverage of Europe... Second, the protection of Europe with mobile systems such as Aegis BMD and THAAD would come at a cost that is more than five times greater to field and sustain when compared to the fixed BMD site plan.
The General concluded, "I believe our current proposed architecture will provide the best, most cost effective protection for our European allies, and it can be deployed beginning in 2011."
Lewis criticizes General Obering's assessment, noting "the 21 version-which the United States is already cooperatively developing with Japan," which according to past documentation "is supposed to have 40-60 percent better burnout velocity, between 4.5-5.0 m/s. Such an interceptor-supplemented with the appropriate terminal defenses-ought to be able to defend most of Europe with much fewer than ten ships." Additionally, Lewis points out, Obering assumed all Aegis vessels must be on alert 24 hours a day instead of being deployed in an emergency. Thus, "Reducing the number of ships required by an order of magnitude from forty to four would make the mobile option much, much more attractive."
Given that the sea-based Aegis system has proven itself to be the most reliable of missile defense systems tested to date, Lewis' observations are well worth noting for those interested in a more robust missile defense system.
*ready for review* (Article)
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