March 15, 2006 :: Analysis
Martin Andrew of the Jamestown Foundation argues that ballistic missile defense in Asia is reducing China’s strategic deterrence. As China deploys its theater-range missiles, other military powers in the region are investing in BMD systems, such as sea-based Aegis systems and ground-based THAAD systems. These new systems will be able to intercept Chinese missiles over Chinese airspace, thus putting China in what Andrew terms a “strategic quandary.” An excerpt:
BMD systems are being deployed in Northeast Asia because of the build-up in Chinese and North Korean ballistic missiles. Yet if it were to negotiate the removal of its ballistic missiles facing Taiwan it loses its key leverage over Taiwan—with Japan and South Korea still keeping their BMD systems in the face of North Korea’s arsenal. Yet by sustaining—and adding to—missile forces in Fujian, Beijing runs the risk of negating its strategic deterrence. If the Chinese leadership follows its doctrine of active defense and believed its nuclear deterrence was becoming neutralized or under threat, it could conceivably launch strikes against Taiwan and Japanese and U.S. ballistic defense missile forces, certainly leading to retaliatory economic and military action. With the acceleration of Chinese ballistic missile forces opposite Taiwan, this is becoming a matter of concern on both sides of the Asia-Pacific.
(Article)
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