April 11, 2006 :: The Space Review :: Analysis
Taylor Dinerman argues in
TheSpaceReview.com that the U.S.-Japanese missile defense alliance is changing the balance of power against North Korea and to a lesser extent against China. Today, were the U.S. were to deploy a substantial number of Patriot-Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptors along with several Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors, they would be able to shoot down half of North Korea’s 100 or so Nodong-1 and 2 missiles. A few years from now, when Japan deploys its PAC-3s and SM-3s, the missile threat from Pyongyang “will be reduced to insignificance.” Similarly, China’s ability to strike the U.S. homeland is diminishing as the U.S. continues to deploy its missile defenses. As the effectiveness of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System (GMD) and the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) increases, the cost to China of maintaining its capability will increase as well. Dinerman adds that if the U.S. were to develop and deploy a space-based system similar to Brilliant Pebbles, China would lose “most of its nuclear options against the U.S. homeland and perhaps against Japan as well.”
(Article)
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