Taiwan to Purchase and Deploy Six Patriot Batteries by 2019—But Are They Enough?
March 3, 2004 :: Taiwan News :: News
Previous reports indicated that Taiwan would proceed with the purchase of three batteries of PAC-3 Patriot missile interceptors, but a news item by the Taiwan News now suggests that that number will increase, to six batteries, consisting of four launchers, which in turn each have 16 interceptor missiles. The plan is said to involve the deployment of the said batteries within 15 years, that is, by 2019.
The larger purchase would not, however, represent a complete defense of Taiwan against the considerable and growing Chinese threat. Even the larger purchase would mean only an additional 240 interceptors. Such a defense pales in comparison to the over 500 short range ballistic missiles China already has deployed near the coast of Taiwan, a number which increases at a rate of 75 to 100 per year. Currently, Taiwan is believed to have some 32 of the less advanced PAC-2 interceptors, spread between two batteries. Supposing China’s rate of increase was to hold steady at 75 per year, then by the time the six new batteries of PAC-3 are deployed by 2019, China could have 1,625 SRBMs with which to threaten their island neighbor. Against these, Taiwan could have only 416.
Although the 2019 deadline is somewhat late, a defense which consists of Aegis sea-based defenses as well, with additional interceptors there, would help narrow the gap. (Article, Link)
» Feb. 19, 2004: Despite Chinese bullying, Taiwan to proceed with Patriot BMD
» Jul. 24, 2003: Taiwan requests 3 batteries of PAC-3
» Mar. 3, 2004: Sale of Aegis to Taiwan approved
» More stories on: China, Policy, Taiwan
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
Blank on China-Taiwan Arms Race
February 24, 2004 :: Asia Times :: Analysis
Stephen Blank on the “arms race” brewing in the Taiwan Strait, provoked in large measure by Chinese buildup of some 500 short range missiles of the coast of Taiwan. Blank speculates that due to the buildup, hostility in the region is becoming more likely. (Article, Link)
» July 23, 2003: Blank on Proliferation by China and North Korea
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
Despite Chinese Pressure, Chen Resolute: Taiwan BMD Regardless of March Referendum Outcome
February 19, 2004 :: Taipei Times :: News
Taiwan will proceed with the planned purchase of three American made Patriot missile interceptors regardless of the outcome of the March 20 referendum, according to a statement by President Chen. One of the questions voters will be asked is whether or not they think Taiwan should increase its defenses against Chinese missiles if China does not withdraw their buildup near the Strait. Cabinet Spokesman Lin Chia-lung commented that the $15 billion special budget would go towards eight diesel-engine submarines, 12 P-3C Orion aircraft, three PAC-3 missile defense systems, and four Kidd-class destroyers that US President George W. Bush promised to sell to Taipei three years ago.
The Taipei Times refers to a position paper recently made by the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense. The position paper notes that China continues to refuse to renounce the option of using force to compel the island nation to accept rule by mainland Communist China. The Times cites the position paper as saying that China has over “100 strategic ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads that can strike any country in the world.” These are in addition, of course, to the 500 tactical ballistic missiles armed with multiple high explosive warheads off the coast of Taiwan, the number of which is increasing at a rate of about 75 per year: over 600 are estimated to be in place by 2005. Moreover, the paper notes that China’s various missiles are able to be fired from anywhere at sea, around the globe. (Article, Link)
» Update: Mar. 4, 2004: Chinese Parliament calls Taiwan President Chen “Immoral,” warns independence will not be tolerated
» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Taiwan
China Launches Anti-Chen Campaign in Anticipation of March Referendum
February 9, 2004 :: CNN :: News
As the March 20 referendum on whether Taiwan should respond to China’s missile buildup with defensive measures, China has apparently launched an anti-Chen campaign, against the president up for reelection on the same date. Officially, China denies such meddling, but they are sending diplomats to put pressure on the leader. China’s bully tactics seem to have thus far not been unsuccessful, already prompting Chen to water down the referendum language. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Taiwan
Myers: “Very Large” Chinese Missile Buildup a Threat to Taiwan
January 15, 2004 :: Spacewar.com :: News
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Richard Myers did not allow his visit to China to go without rebuking his guest for their “very large” missile buildup within range of Taiwan, and indicated that the United States might assist the island nation defend itself from mainland aggression. An assessment of his condemnation, however, requires one to pay close attention to its timing with recent events. (More »»»)
» Text of Chen’s speech, with revised, more “flexible,” resolution language
» Dec. 3: Nearly 500 Chinese missiles off the coast of Taiwan
» Gen. Bergert: China has made “significant” improvements in ability to strike Taiwan with missiles and by air
» More stories on: Allies, China, Proliferation, Taiwan
Jiang: China Will Prevent Taiwanese Independence—Hints at Force
January 15, 2004 :: China Daily :: News
During the meeting between U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Myers and Chinese Central Military Commission Chairman Jiang Zemin, Jiang emphasized that the Taiwan question is the “core and most sensitive issue in China-U.S. relations,” and went on to say that China “will never tolerate Taiwan independence.” At the same time, Myers indicated that the U.S. would stand by Taiwan and assist it in its capacity to defend itself. China has in recent years continued to escalate a buildup of short range ballistic missiles of the coast of Taiwan. Taiwan is now scheduled to hold a referendum in March about whether, should China continue its threatening actions, Taiwan should increase its missile defenses. (Article, Link)
» Heritage: Tkacik: Not Taiwan resolution, but China’s buildup is cause of instability
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
China’s Laser Weapons Possible Threat to Taiwan
December 22, 2003 :: Taipei Times :: News
China may have a laser weapon, similar in concept to the United States’ air-borne laser (ABL), which they can and may be deploying near Taiwan, in addition to their buildup of short range ballistic missiles.
The Taipei Times cites Taiwanese defense sources that the laser cannon, with a range over 100km—again, comparable to the ABL—has been deployed in Fujian Province facing Taiwan, and that it could be used to disable military command and control systems. One defense official, however, noted that the cannon may only still be in development: “We tend to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. We would rather believe that China has already developed such a weapon and that we should start making preparations as soon as possible.” The Times notes that the United States and Israel have developed laser weapons—the ABL and the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)—but these are used as anti-missile defense systems. It is, however, plausible that the Chinese system is designed to have an anti-missile defense capability. (Article, Link)
» June 7, 2000: First THEL intercept
» More stories on: China, Taiwan, Technology
» Missile system details for: Airborne Laser (ABL), Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)
President Chen: 496 Chinese Missiles Aimed at Taiwan
December 3, 2003 :: Taipei Times :: News
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian released more detailed information on the location and number of China’s short and medium range ballistic missiles positioned within range of the small island. According to Chen, China has deployed 96 missiles each in Leping and Ganxian of Jiangxi Province, Meizhou of Guangdong Province, as well as 144 in Yongan and 64 in Xianyou of Fujian Province.
These numbers slightly exceed those reported by the recent Department of Defense report, Chinese Military Power, which set the number at 450 and their rate of increase at 75 per year.
Chen’s release of information and warning of China’s “the ongoing threat to Taiwan” comes after a stern U.S. warning to Taiwan not to hold a referendum declaring independence from mainland Communist China. Some of Chen’s political opponents suggest the information release is being calculated to support such a referendum on sovereignty with the next presidential election, on March 20, 2004. (Article, Link)
» Center for Security Policy: U.S. Policy Shift?
» DOD Report on Chinese Military Power
» Bush April 25, 2001: U.S. will do “whatever it takes” to defend Taiwan
» China threatens Taiwan over referendum
» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Taiwan
Taiwan Requests PAC-3
July 24, 2003 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
Janes Missiles and Rockets confirms that Taiwan indeed plans on purchasing the United States’ latest operational Patriot Advanced Capability system, the PAC-3. Taiwan has formally presented their request for three Lockheed Martin Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile batteries, which the US Department of Defense is said to be currently evaluating and will likely recommend, as well as early warning radar (EWR). Taiwan already has three batteries of the PAC-2.
These purchase plans coincide with continued reports that China is increasing the number of ballistic missiles positioned off the coast of Taiwan, with some 100 DF-11 and 300 DF-15 missiles, according to Jane’s August 1 edition. (Article, Link)
» March 14 report on Taiwan’s missile defense interests
» More stories on: Allies, China, Taiwan
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
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