CSIS Report on Taiwan’s Vulnerability to Chinese Missiles
April 17, 2006 :: UPI :: Analysis
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a prominent Washington think tank, recently published a report highlighting Taiwan’s anti-ballistic missile vulnerabilities. The report, entitled “The Paths Ahead: Missile Defense in Asia,” was prepared by Kurt Campbell, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Clinton, and CSIS senior fellow Jeremiah Gertler. It argues that the cost of deploying missile defenses far exceeds China’s cost of producing large numbers of old-fashioned, lower-tech missiles which could swamp Taiwan’s defenses.
Campbell and Gertler predict that in the event of a Chinese attack, Taiwan’s interceptors would be outnumbered six or seven to one. In addition, new Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, submarines, and fast-attack boats are creating the capability to push U.S. Aegis-equipped warships out of missile defense range, leaving Taiwan entirely dependent on its ground based Patriot systems.
The report also paints a grim picture of a Taiwanese public, political elite, and military deeply divided over the subject of missile defense. It describes the issue as “unusually polarizing” within the public, adding that opposition political parties view missile defense as “a provocation to China” and an “obstacle to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” In addition, the report points out major divisions within the Taiwanese armed forces, with the Army opposed to missile defense, the Navy in favor, and the Air Force still divided. (Article, Link)
» CSIS Report: “The Paths Ahead: Missile Defense in Asia”
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Taiwan
Taiwan Official: 820 Chinese Missiles, 20,000 Troops Killed
March 29, 2006 :: BBC Worldwide Monitoring :: News
A Chinese ballistic missile attack could kill some 20,000 Taiwanese troops, according to Taiwan’s Vice Defense Minister Chu Kai-sheng. Speaking at a session of the Legislative Yuan on Wednesday, Chu quoted an estimate made in a Hankuang drill that if the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fired ballistic missiles at Taiwan in five consecutive ways, which would take about half a day, between 20,000 and 30,000 Taiwanese armed forces personnel would be killed or wounded. At present, China is said to have some 820 ballistic missiles (excluding cruise missiles) aimed at Taiwan. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Allies, China, Taiwan
Andrew on Chinese Missile and Defensive Buildup
March 15, 2006 :: Analysis
Martin Andrew of the Jamestown Foundation argues that ballistic missile defense in Asia is reducing China’s strategic deterrence. As China deploys its theater-range missiles, other military powers in the region are investing in BMD systems, such as sea-based Aegis systems and ground-based THAAD systems. These new systems will be able to intercept Chinese missiles over Chinese airspace, thus putting China in what Andrew terms a “strategic quandary.” An excerpt:
BMD systems are being deployed in Northeast Asia because of the build-up in Chinese and North Korean ballistic missiles. Yet if it were to negotiate the removal of its ballistic missiles facing Taiwan it loses its key leverage over Taiwan—with Japan and South Korea still keeping their BMD systems in the face of North Korea’s arsenal. Yet by sustaining—and adding to—missile forces in Fujian, Beijing runs the risk of negating its strategic deterrence. If the Chinese leadership follows its doctrine of active defense and believed its nuclear deterrence was becoming neutralized or under threat, it could conceivably launch strikes against Taiwan and Japanese and U.S. ballistic defense missile forces, certainly leading to retaliatory economic and military action. With the acceleration of Chinese ballistic missile forces opposite Taiwan, this is becoming a matter of concern on both sides of the Asia-Pacific.
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan
» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
Taiwan Says Facing 784 Chinese Missiles
March 7, 2006 :: News
China posseses 784 missiles that could paralyze Taiwan’s communications, transportation, and command centers in a 10-hour bombardment, according to the Taiwanese Defense Ministry. AFX Asia quotes Lieutenant Colonel Chen Chang-hua who stated that China has “deployed 784 ballistic missiles with the entire island coming within their range, with the precision margin narrowing from 600 meters to 50 meters. Armed with the missiles, they can launch five waves of intensive bombings for 10 hours.” Chen’s statements come at a time of escalating tensions after Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian scrapped an advisory council on unification with the Chinese mainland, provoking fury in Beijing. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
Taiwan to Resubmit Bid to Buy Patriots
February 23, 2006 :: News
Taiwan will resubmit its bid to buy Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) surface-to-air missile batteries from the U.S. On Wednesday, National Defense Minister Lee Jye said that the Defense Ministry’s plan will be resubmitted to the Legislative Yuan in March 2007, when the ban on such discussion expires. The current ban is the result of a failed referendum held in tandem with the 2004 Taiwanese presidential election, which stipulates that an issue cannot be put to referendum within three years of a previous one. During the past two years, the opposition-controlled legislature has blocked two bills submitted by the Democratic Progressive Party-led government asking for a special budget to buy six PAC-3 batteries from the U.S., as well as eight diesel-electric submarines and a squadron of 12 P-3C submarine-hunting aircraft.
U.S. Representative Rob Simmons (R-CT) noted on Wednesday that Taiwan is “running out of time” on the U.S. arms procurement deal, as it is uncertain what the next administration’s stance will be on the issue. (Link)
» More stories on: Allies, Taiwan
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
Taiwan Said to be Developing SAM Missile Defense
January 9, 2006 :: East Asia Intel :: News
East-Asia-Intel.com reports that Taiwan is developing its own surface-to-air missile, which could have air defense and missile defense capabilities. According to local Chinese-language media reports, Taiwan is at work on the Tien Kung-3 (Sky Bow) anti-tactical ballistic missile program, comparable to the U.S. Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) system. The article notes that, if combined with the Chang Bai (Long White) radar system, the TK-3 system would be able to simultaneously engage nine targets, including cruise missiles. It is believed that the military-run Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology has completed research and development of the TK-3, and will begin operational testing and evaluation this year. However, the website notes, Taiwan could be running into technical difficulties, including propulsion and targeting. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Allies, Taiwan
Jane’s: Taiwan Has Prototypes of New Cruise Missile
January 9, 2006 :: News
Taiwan has produced three prototypes of a new cruise missile which could be used to strike the east coast of China, reports Jane’s Defence Weekly. The missile, known as the Hsiung Feng 2E (Brave Wind), has a range of more than 600 km (360 miles), meaning that if deployed on Penghu Island in the south or Tungyin Island in the north, it could strike as far south as Hong Kong and as far north as Shanghai. Initial plans are said to be for the production of up to 50 missiles before 2010, and up to 500 missiles beginning after 2010.
Jane’s adds that Taiwan’s military-run Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, the developer of the missile, plans to extend the HF-2E’s range to 1,000 km, although this would require the acquisition of specialized engine components from the U.S. So far, Washington has refused to provide these components, perhaps due to provisions under the Missile Technology Control Regime.
Efforts by Taiwan to begin limited cruise and ballistic missile programs are a response to the bloated missile buildup by their larger Communist neighbor, with now over 700 ballistic missiles and a some hundreds of cruise missiles stationed deployed within range of the small island nation. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Allies, Cruise Missiles, Taiwan
Taiwan Legislature Committee Votes Down Patriot Purchases
November 10, 2005 :: Taiwan Headlines :: News
The Taiwanese legislative defense committee voted to cancel the NT$10.9 billion budget which had been set aside for the purchase of three PAC-3 Patriot missile interceptors, and another NT$40 million for the purchase of 12 P-3C anti-submarine aircraft.
Taiwan Headlines notes:
In support of their decision to cancel the funding, opposition party lawmakers cited the results of the referendum held in tandem with the 2004 presidential elections that failed to garner the necessary majority required to validate the proposal. They went on to say that the government should respect the people’s choice as Taiwanese citizens to “veto the purchase of anti-missile weapons systems from the United States.” When approached to comment on the subject, Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Lee Wen-chung said that the upcoming joint committee meeting could still reverse the verdict… “[The lawmakers are] simply barbaric,” said Huang Shih-cho of the Taiwan Solidarity Union. His words were mirrored by Chet Yang, secretary of Taiwan North Society who said, “(The Taiwanese) cannot continue to live at the mercy of these so-called legislators.” Yang said that Beijing is constantly strengthening its military and estimated that, by year’s end, there may be one thousand missiles pointed toward Taiwan. He urged the public to support the purchase so Taiwan could protect itself…
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
Kyodo: China Testing SRBMs at Pace of 100 Per Year
October 19, 2005 :: Kyodo :: News
Japan’s Kyodo news service reports that beginning two years ago China has been testing short range ballistic missiles at a rate of about one hundred per year. The tests of missiles with ranges up to 600 km are said to take place from inland bases. The report comes in conjunction with the visit by Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld to the headquarters of the Second Artillery, which commands China’s ballistic missiles.
This news report is significant, but it leaves unclear the relation of such a number of tests to the number of missiles produced each year, and the number operationally deployed near Taiwan. The 2005 report by the Pentagon on the military capabilities of the People’s Republic of China noted that China is deploying an additional “75 to 125” short range missiles within range of Taiwan each year, and that the current number was estimated at between 650 and 730. Depending on how one interprets the relation between these reports, China could be producing some 175-225 short range missiles per year (around 100 to satisfy the testing replacement rate plus 75-125 to increase the number deployed). (Article, Link)
» Kyodo report through BBC Monitoring
» October 19, 2005: Washington Times on Rumsfeld visit
» 2005 Pentagon Report on Chinese Military Power
» More stories on: China, Taiwan, Testing - Foreign
PACOM Head: Taiwan Should Upgrade Defenses
October 17, 2005 :: AP :: News
Admiral William Fallon, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, gave a speech urging Taiwan to upgrade its capabilities and to focus on defensive systems which could help deter an invasion, such as the sort of thing the island nation would face from China. Fallon named as important Taiwan’s upgrading of its Patriot anti-missile defense batteries, and the purchase of such weapons as mines to deter an amphibious assault by China. An excerpt from the Associated Press:
“As I take stock of the situation and have had an assessment of where we stand, it seems to me there are some things that would be much more useful than others in helping Taiwan better prepare its defenses,” Fallon said. Examples of steps Taiwan could take include upgrading the Patriot anti-missile systems it already has and buying airplane-mounted missiles that could shoot down invading aircraft, he said. Taiwan also could buy sea mines to protect the island’s beaches from an amphibious assault, he said. Fallon said he brought up the subject with Taiwanese military officials several months ago.
The sort of defensive weapons Fallon urged are less expensive than the eight diesel-electric submarines and four Kidd-class destroyers which have been offered and for which purchases have been delayed.
He noted Taiwan’s defense spending has been dropping as a percentage of its gross domestic product even as China spent heavily to modernize and upgrade its military. “If these trend lines continue, there is a clear gap and a potential to have a significant imbalance which might not be useful for long-term stability,” Fallon said.
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: Allies, Taiwan
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
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