Russia to Launch Iranian Satellites Within Months
February 2, 2005 :: Kommersant :: News
In January of 2004, Iran declared that within the next 18 months it would launch a satellite into orbit using its own rocket systems and doing so from its own territory, becoming the first Islamic state to do so. Recently, however, reports the Russian Kommersant, Iran has signed an agreement with Russia which will permit it to launch two satellites, named Mesbah and Sinah-1, from the Russian Plesetsk launching site. According to the Russian newspaper, Moscow persuaded Iran to do so to avoid a harsh American reaction. Both are said to be spy satellites. The Mesbah satellite is said to orbit at 900km. The Sinah-1 is said to weight some 20 kg. Other sources also refer to cooperation on a Zohreh telecommunications satellite, but Kommersant claims this project may have been a diversion.
Iran would probably have launched the satellites using its own Shahab missile, which it claims is not intended for distances even sufficient to reach Europe. A ballistic missile capable of putting a satellite into orbit, however, is also capable of traveling long distances, indeed, nearly anywhere on earth, notes Kommersant. Kommersant also claims that Italy, China, Mongolia, Pakistan and Thailand were each assisting Iran in preparations for the launch, but that they have since withdrawn such help out of concern for U.S. sanctions. Although Iran was also negotiating with China for such a launch, Russia is said to have stepped in to help Iran complete the project. The launch is reported to take place in the second quarter of 2005, perhaps by May, and will use the Russian Kosmos-3M launcher.
If one gathers nothing else from this and other news of similar proliferation and military ties, it should be that Russia and China both continue to project power into the middle east, and are specifically interested in making Iran a strategic ally. Both countries do so in order to counter American force. Neither country is a friend, or ally, of the United States. Both are rather strategic competitors. Any attempt to confront the Iranian regime, its sponsorship of terrorism, its nuclear and other WMD programs, and its ballistic missile programs, would be strongly opposed by both countries. (Article, Link)
» Geostrategy Direct on Iran-Russia satellite cooperation
» Nov. 29, 2004: Aviation Weekly & Space Technology: Iranian space interests disguise strategic missile ambitions
» Sep. 20, 2004: Iran announces plan to launch satellite
» Middle East Newsline on Iranian-Russian satellite launch plans
» More stories on: China, Iran, Russia, Space-Based Systems
Dinerman on Need to Divert KEI Funds to Space-Based Interceptors
January 24, 2005 :: Analysis
Taylor Dinerman writes a fine piece for The Space Review on the need for missile defense budget cuts, if they are indeed to come, to be properly managed. If, as reported, the Missile Defense Agency must cut five billion dollars over the next six years, choices have to be made. Dinerman notes that “press reports indicate they have three choices: cut a little here and a little there, hoping to save all of their ongoing programs; cut the Airborne Laser (ABL); or cut the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI). Sitting outside MDA, the answer is obvious, to wit, kill KEI.”
Dinerman goes on to recount the difficulties of the KEI design. While boost phase intercept is desirable, doing so with land-based interceptors is quite problematic, since they are very vulnerable to the problem of being in just the right place at just the right time. Dinerman then goes on to support perseverance with the promising sea-based Aegis defenses, as well as the Airborne Laser, but most importantly points to a more fundamental solution yet:
What is needed is to renew work on space-based boost-phase interceptors. The political obstacles are formidable indeed, but the case for Brilliant Pebbles or similar systems is as valid now as it was when the system was canceled by the late Les Aspin with the notorious quip, “I’m going to take the stars out of Star Wars.” Orbiting BPI weapons will not only give the US the capability to shoot down long-range missiles aimed at us but, and more importantly, it could allow the US to smother regional ballistic missile exchanges. Pick your own favorite nuclear missile nightmare scenario, and imagine how it would be changed if both sides found that their rockets were being knocked out of the sky. In a world full of nuclear proliferation, space-based BPI would be the ultimate diplomatic tool.
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: Space-Based Systems
» Missile system details for: Brilliant Pebbles, Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)
SBIRS Profiled
January 17, 2005 :: Defense News :: News
The Space Based Infrared System High program, critical to detecting and tracking ballistic missile launches for any interception attempt, is profiled by Defense News.
The SBIRS High program will consist of four satellites, placed at geostationary orbits, monitoring the surface for heat indicative of explosions or a missile launch. The program has faced considerable delays, funding problems, and opposition, but the first satellite is scheduled for launch in 2007. The SBIRS program is said to be 60% faster and twice as accurate as the existing Defense Support Program satellites, of which there are 22, currently in operation, and will serve a broader number of purposes. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Space-Based Systems, Detection and Tracking
» Missile system details for: Space-Based Infrared System-High (SBIRS-High)
Israeli Official Calls for Space-Based Defenses
January 12, 2005 :: Defense News :: News
Yuval Steinitz, chairman of the Israel’s Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee, recently called for his nation to expand its sea and space-based defenses against a number of forms of attack, reports Defense News. At a December 22 symposium, he urged in particular anti-satellite missiles, satellite-attacking lasers, and ship-based missiles. Israel’s “lack of ground territory—and our obligation to defend the homeland from attack—drives the need to develop a strategic envelope of air, sea and space forces not only for defense, but for attack.”
Steinitz’s proposals will not be well received by those arms controllers theologically opposed to the weaponization of space, but are in fact quite well founded. The importance of space in warfare has already been seen in the use of GPS and other satellite assets. In a war with another space-capable power, such as China, anti-satellite weapons would, it is plausible, be widely used on both sides. The defense of our assets in space is a simple necessity, and the basing of missile defense interceptors in space is simply essential to any effective strategic missile defense. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: High Energy Defenses, Israel, Space-Based Systems
Garwin on Missile Defense
October 29, 2004 :: Analysis
Richard Garwin writes in the November edition of the Scientific American on the need for missile defense efforts to be properly directed. He makes a number of good points about the ballistic missile threat, but his opposition to the means by which to meet that threat leaves questions unanswered. First, a summary of his main points: (More »»»)
» Archive of Garwin writings at FAS
» More stories on: Analysis, Policy, Space-Based Systems
» Missile system details for: Brilliant Pebbles, Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD), Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)
China Denies Galileo Satellites’ Military Purpose
October 26, 2004 :: China Daily :: News
A spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, Zhang Qiyue, responded to a recent report that the United States had the capability to disarm the E.U-China program, if it should be used in a war against the U.S.
Zhang Qiyue denied that there were any but peaceful, non-military purposes for the program. She added that, “We hope certain people to abandon the Cold War mentality.”
As it is used here, one may understand a “Cold War mentality” as that which is concerned with major, strategic threats—or which looks toward strategic advantages and strategic defenses.
China is no doubt sincere in its wish that the United States cease to be concerned with the strategic threat posed by China. China, meanwhile, will continue to pursue its strategic interests, at the expense of the United States. (Article, Link)
» Oct. 25: U.S. can disable Chinese-European Galileo GPS satellites
» More stories on: China, Space-Based Systems
Report: U.S. Can Down Sino-European Galileo Satellites
October 25, 2004 :: AFP :: News
Missilethreat.com has before noted the potential threat to American strategic interests in space posed by the Chinese-European joint space program called “Galileo.” The program is similar to the American Global Positioning System (GPS). Today, however, the AFP reports that the U.S. may acquire the capability to destroy such satellites should they be used against the United States by, for example, China.
The Galileo program would consist of a constellation of 30 satellites and ground stations, and could become operational in 2008. The design for the network may have included at one point the capability to interfere with America’s own GPS satellites’ ability to communicate with each other. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Space-Based Systems
China, U.S. in Strategic Competition in Space
July 21, 2004 :: Defense News :: News
The United States and China have competing designs for space, notes a recent story carried by Defense News. The story references a yet to be released U.S. National Security Space Policy document, which outlines China’s ambitions and possible U.S. responses.
That China is indeed a rising strategic competitor is a fact which must be faced, rather than denied or ignored.
One quote contained in the story is especially worth noting, by Joan Johnson-Freese, the chairwoman of National Security Decision Making at the Naval War College:
On September 10, 2001, what was the No.1 issue?…China was seen as a strategic competitor. Though there has been some cooperation with China on the war on terror and in North Korea, there is an underlying fear that China is the next near-competitor.
But what was true about China on September 10 is also true today. Lest the war on terrorism be waged in the absence of strategic clarity, such strategic competition must not be forgotten. The war on terrorism should not serve as a distraction from the strategic concerns of Russia, China, and other rogue regimes. (Article, Link)
» June 1: DoD releases annual report, The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China
» More stories on: China, Space-Based Systems
Pentagon Report: China’s Space Power Increasing
June 1, 2004 :: Department of Defense :: Analysis
The Department of Defense released its annual report to Congress, The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, which details China’s continued expansion of their ballistic missile capabilities, and ambitions of military superiority in the region, as well as significant ambitions in space.
The report also notes that China is devoting significant electronic warfare systems which could be used to jam the US GPS constellation, as well as “robust” research and development program for laser weapons. In addition, “Beijing may have acquired high-energy laser equipment that could be used in the development of ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons.”
Space, too, is essential to the future of modern warfare, and China is pursuing electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons, and “microsatellites.” All of this continues, despite China’s salutary denials of the militarization of space, and criticism of any American attempts to defend space assets: “Publicly, China opposes the militarization of space and seeks to prevent or slow the development of U.S. anti-satellite (ASAT) systems and space-based missile defenses,” the report notes; “Privately, however, China’s leaders probably view ASAT systems—and offensive counterspace systems, in general—as well as space-based missile defenses as inevitabilities.” China is said to be pursuing foreign technologies to develop its own domestic satellite-killing capability; “Given China’s current level of interest in laser technology, Beijing probably could develop a weapon that could destroy satellites in the future,” the report notes.
China also continues to modernize and accelerate its ballistic missile arsenal. China officially has only 20 ICBMs capable of striking the United States, but the report notes that it could have 30 by 2005, and as many as 60 by the end of the decade. Beijing is also expected to replace its 20 CSS-4 Mod 1 ICBMs with a still longer-range version, and to deploy the DF-31 ICBM by the end of the decade—if they have not done so already. (More »»»)
» Annual report, The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (.pdf)
» More stories on: China, Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Weapons, Proliferation, Space-Based Systems
» Missile details: CSS-9 (DF-31)
Miller on the Next Steps for Missile Defense
May 24, 2004 :: National Review Online :: Analysis
John Miller of NRO takes note of the recent debate which is sure to continue after the first missile deployment takes place later this year. The debate concerns nothing less than the future of missile defense. Miller rightly favors a space-based approach to any attempt at boost-phase interception, calling for a revival of Brilliant Pebbles over the costly and unlikely Kinetic Energy Interceptor.
Miller quotes Senator Kyl of Arizona as repudiating the notion that defensive systems in space somehow represent a fresh weaponization of that arena: “The notion that defensive space-based interceptors will somehow weaponize space is intellectually dishonest…And we shouldn’t be using the phrase ‘weapons in space.’ Space is already used by militaries and of offensive missile in space is no less using space than its defensive interceptor.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Policy, Space-Based Systems
