Berman: Russia Shows the U.S. the Central Asia Door
July 11, 2007 :: Jane's Information Group :: Analysis
Ilan Berman, Vice President for Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, analyzed Russian and U.S. rivalry in Central Asia in the July 11 edition of Jane's Defence Weekly. In the aftermath of September 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin had acquiesced to U.S. air bases in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to fight the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. However,
[F]our years later, America's regional presence is dwindling rapidly. Already, disputes with local governments have led to the ouster of US forces from one strategic facility, the Karshi-Khanabad base in Uzbekistan, and called into question the future of its deployment in Manas [Kyrgyzstan]. Diplomatically, meanwhile, Washington faces growing regional hostility, punctuated by public calls from the six-member Russian- and Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) for an exit of US and allied forces from the region.
While the U.S. was quick to promote governmental reform and human rights, Russia offered "value-free" cooperation.
Fearful of the possibility of a permanent US military outpost in its immediate neighbourhood and of the potential for US-assisted democratic change there, the Kremlin has adopted a multifaceted strategy of economic and political outreach designed to diminish US influence there...Moscow...has pursued a "value free" approach to regional ties, emphasising co-operation on military, strategic and energy matters over structural and political reforms.
The autocratic regimes of Central Asia thus rediscovered a regional power that would aid them while condoning a slide back into autocracy. Compounding the problem, the U.S. has shifted its focus back to Iraq and the Middle East and away from Central Asia. Berman concludes that the U.S. ignores the region and its autocratic drift at its peril, considering its geopolitical and economic importance. (Link)
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Podvig on the Russian RS-24 as Modified Topol-M
July 6, 2007 :: Analysis
The RS-24 missile that Russia tested on May 29, 2007 is a multiple-warhead version of the Topol-M and not a new missile, concludes Russian analyst Pavel Podvig writing for the Russian Forces blog. Russia has long wanted to have a MIRV version of the Topol-M, assuming it could compensate the slow pace of missile deployment by making the forces look bigger. However, under the guidelines of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), Russia and the U.S. are forbidden from "increasing the number of warheads attributed to an ICBM or SLBM of an existing or new type [of missile] (Article V.12d)". Since under the guidelines of the treaty, the Topol-M would be considered a variant of the Topol missile, Russia cannot declare that it will be equipped with multiple warheads. Therefore, Russia declared the Topol-M a "new" missile.
It is (almost) official now - the RS-24 missile that Russia tested on May 29, 2007 is a multiple-warhead version of Topol-M. That was my guess at the time of the test, but now I have had it confirmed. The missile, of course, have a new warhead section, but it is a Topol-M. It was said to use a guidance system that shares technology with that of the Bulava SLBM and, just as I suspected, it will be using the same warheads. It appears, though, that MIRVed Topol-M will carry no more than six warheads (the range was reported to be from three to six, but no final number yet).
MIRVing of Topol-M has long been somewhat of an obsession in Russia - there is a broad consensus among experts across the spectrum that this could compensate for the slow pace of the missile deployment, if only by artificially making the Russian forces look bigger. I think this belief is deeply misguided, but this is where the Russian debate stands. ...
At the moment, Russia can declare it as a prototype, which means it does not have to attribute a number of warheads or throw-weight to the missile until it is flight-tested at least 20 times or deployed. Since START is set to expire in December 2009, this means that Russia may avoid a conflict with the treaty by simply withholding the final throw-weight declaration until then.
(Article, Link)
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» Missile details: RS-24
Russia Threatens Missile Deployment in Kaliningrad
July 6, 2007
On July 4, First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov warned that Russia could deploy medium-range missiles in the Kaliningrad oblast in Europe if the United States turns down Russia's proposals on anti-missile defense in Europe. Russia has opposed a current U.S. plan to place ten Ground Based Interceptors in Poland and an X-Band radar facility in the Czech Republic. Russia claims that the plan is devised to blunt Russia's influence in the region and diminish its strategic nuclear deterrent. As a possible compromise, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the U.S. use a share a pre-existing radar facility in Azerbaijan and an additional facility in Southern Russia. Putin also suggested the system should exist within the Russia-NATO Council, with centers in Moscow and Brussels. The U.S. has thus far welcomed the proposal as a possible complement to its existing plan, but not as a substitute.
Ivanov suggested that, by turning down Russia's proposal, offensive medium range (500km) Iskander-K missiles would be placed in the Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania. Lithuania is so far responding calmly to Ivanov's threat. Lithuanian Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas, Minister of Foreign Affairs Petras Vaitiekunas, and the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Justinas Karosas have stressed the threat is purely hypothetical, but that Lithuania, the EU and NATO would oppose such a move. (Article, Link)
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» Missile details: SS-26
Russia Set to Test First Serial S-400 SAM System Next Week
July 5, 2007 :: RIA-Novosti :: News
On July 5 Russia announced it will conduct the first tests of its new S-400 Triumf air defense complexes (NATO codename SA-21 Growler) during the week of July 9. The S-400 is designed to intercept and destroy airborne targets, including stealth aircraft, at a distance of up to 400 kilometers-more than twice the range of the S-300PMU-2 (NATO codename SA-10 Grumble). The S-400 will soon be put on combat duty near Moscow following the test, and eventually will replace the older S-300PMU-2s and defend critical administrative and political centers. (Article, Link)
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» Missile system details for: S-400 (SA-20 Triumf), S-300P (SA-10 Grumble)
Putin Proposes Using Radar in Southern Russia for Missile Defense Purposes
July 2, 2007 :: Interfax :: News
During a summit at the Bush family home in Kennebunkport, Maine, Russian President Vladimir Putin expanded on his counter-proposal to the U.S. plan to build a missile defense system in Eastern Europe. "Should it prove necessary, we are ready to include not only the Gabala [radar] station [in Azerbaijan] in this system. We are ready to rebuild it, should such a need arise, and, if it proves insufficient, we are prepared to add a new radar station being built in the south of Russia in this system," he said. President Putin's offer has been welcomed by President Bush as a potential complement to his plan to base a missile defense system in Eastern Europe, but Putin has insisted it is meant as an alternative. Russia has fiercely criticized the U.S. plan for Poland and the Czech Republic which it believes erodes its strategic nuclear deterrent and influence in Europe. (Article, Link)
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Russia Begins Mass Production of Topol-M, Iskander-M
June 26, 2007 :: Defense News :: News
Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov announced June 26 that Russia has begun the mass production of the Topol-M strategic missile. Ivanov spoke at a plant at Votkinsk in Udmurtia, some 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) east of Moscow. "These are not prototypes but mass production," he said.
"We are now moving on to a new and very important rearmament stage for both our nuclear strategic forces and tactical complexes...I am talking of stationary Topol-M missile complexes...also of mobile ones which can be fitted with different types of warheads, as well as Iskander-M missiles." The Topol-M is a three-stage intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) which can be deployed on both stationary and mobile launch platforms. The Iskander-M is a shorter range missile. Russia plans to equip its armed forces with 69 Topol-M missiles and 60 Iskander-M missiles by 2015. (Article, Link)
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» Missile details: SS-26, SS-27
Gates: U.S. to Proceed with Plans for European Site
June 15, 2007 :: New York Times :: News
While at a NATO meeting in Brussels on June 14, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates gave the U.S. response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's missile defense counter-proposal. Under the Russian proposal, interceptors would instead be based in Turkey, Iraq or aboard Aegis vessels and would share a Russian-leased radar facility in Azerbaijan.
In his response, Gates stressed that while the Azeri radar facility could enhance the current U.S. plan, it would not replace the X-Band Radar facility proposed for the Czech Republic. "I was very explicit in the meeting that we saw the Azeri radar as an additional capability, that we intended to proceed with the radar, the X-band radar, in the Czech Republic," Gates said. The X-Band Radar is designed to detect specific objects in space and to assist the interceptors destroy an adversary's missile in mid-flight. The system in Azerbaijan is an early warning radar with a wider range, but with less precise tracking capability.
At the meeting of defense ministers, Gates also effectively secured NATO's implicit endorsement for the U.S. plan. The group announced it would study how to incorporate shorter-range NATO missile defense systems with the new system to provide protection for Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey and parts of Romania-all areas that would not be covered by the U.S. plan. "The NATO road map on missile defense is now clear," said Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, the NATO Secretary General. "It's practical, and it's agreed by all." In a surprising move, Gates also announced possible U.S. interest in placing additional missile defense systems in Ukraine. (Article, Link)
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Azeris Concerned about Putin Radar Offer
June 15, 2007 :: News
Russian President Vladimir Putin's surprise offer during the G-8 meeting in Germany to share the Galaba radar station in Azerbaijan with the U.S. as part of a new ballistic missile defense also took Azeris by surprise, despite an endorsement from Azeri President Ilham Aliyev, that "This is a new element in [Azerbaijan's] strategic cooperation with the two countries." Azeri political leaders have criticized the legality of President Putin's offer and the wisdom of the plan itself. "If Russia intends to allow it to be used by a third country, it must discuss the issue with Azerbaijan," said Ziyafat Askerov, vice-speaker of Azerbaijan's parliament. Citing Article 4 of the Gabala radar station lease agreement, he said the station cannot be handed over to a third party without Azerbaijan's permission. The effect of increased use of the facility could also have serious ecological effects. "If the US is allowed to use the radar station, its capacities will be increased, which means the damage being done to the environment will grow too," said independent military expert Azad Isazade. "The clouds reflect radar waves onto densely-populated areas of the country nearby. Officially, they say the station is harmless but independent medical studies suggest the contrary."
The Galaba radar facility is 200 kilometers from the Azeri-Iranian border, and currently monitors much of Asia, including Iran, as well as much of Africa and islands in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The Russian government has a ten year lease on the facility. (Article, Link)
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Stakelbeck on a New Ballistic Missile Triad
June 14, 2007 :: Washington Times :: Analysis
Fredrick Stakelbeck writes for The Washington Times discussing the the emerging ballistic missile threat to the United States from Russia, China and Iran.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has assisted Iran with the development of its missile technology and nuclear program, has recently claimed he may freeze Russia's compliance with the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty and the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty. Russia recently tested a new RS-24 missile which is especially designed to penetrate missile defenses.
The recent Department of Defense report on China's military spending "catalogs in great detail the country's continued efforts to establish not only a defensive ballistic missile capability, but an offensive ‘first strike' capability as well. The expected deployment of additional mobile, land and sea-based ballistic nuclear missiles that can reach the U.S. mainland have raised serious questions in Washington about the county's regional and global intentions." While China has maintained a "no first strike" policy, "other sources suggest that they are possibly developing capabilities for a more flexible use of nuclear weapons that would call into question this declared policy."
Led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran has developed with significant Chinese and Russian assistance, its Shahab-3 and Shahab-4 missiles, which can target Israel and Europe respectively. Iran also has continued its quest to acquire nuclear weapons despite diplomatic efforts to halt its program.
Stakelbeck concludes, "In the meantime, the United States and its allies should consider increasing funding dedicated to the research, development and testing of a more agile anti-missile defense umbrella. By taking this important step, the combined offensive intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities of China, Russia and Iran, as well as rogue nations such as North Korea, will be made increasingly irrelevant." (Article, Link)
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National Review on Russian Intentions
June 13, 2007 :: National Review Online :: Analysis
An editorial by The National Review today examines the surprise Russian counter-proposal unveiled at the G-8 summit meeting in Germany. Russia had denounced the U.S. plan to house ten Ground Based Interceptors in Poland and construct a X-band radar facility in the Czech Republic, suggesting that the U.S. instead base interceptors in Turkey, Iraq or on Aegis vessels and use a pre-existing Russian radar base in Azerbaijan.
National Review suggests the U.S. approach such a proposal cautiously and verify Russia's intentions. "If it is indeed a serious offer to enhance global security against the menace of ayatollahs who brandish nuclear weapons, then it could represent a geopolitical breakthrough. Yet if it is just another Russian attempt to undermine existing missile-defense plans, it deserves to be shot down quickly." The editorial suggests that the Russian proposal may be problematic geographically. Additionally, if Russia were actually committed to preventing a ballistic missile attack from Iran, then it should halt its assistance to the regime and work with the West to keep the Iranians from gaining a nuclear weapon at all. However, if the offer to work with the U.S. is genuine, then it should be taken seriously. "Russia’s determination to block the missile-defense sites in the Czech Republic and Poland always has seemed to have more to do with exerting influence over Eastern Europe than with anybody’s security interests. ...Verify Russia's intentions, and only then begin to trust." (Article, Link)
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