S-400 Moscow Deployment Postponed
June 12, 2007 :: RIA-Novosti :: News
The S-400 air and missile defense systems (SA-21 Growler) slated to be installed by July 1 will be postponed until later this summer, Colonel-General Alexander Zelin of Russia's Air Force said Tuesday in Moscow. The S-400 Triumf is an upgrade of the S-300 class (NATO codename SA-10 Grumble), and is capable of destroying stealth aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. Eventually all of the S-300 complexes will be replaced with the newer model.
The first S-400s were to be deployed in Electrostal-town of Moscow Region on July 1, 2007. The intention is to annually have one or two new regiments equipped with S-400s so that the latter would soon replace S-300 systems in all air defense units protecting Moscow and central Russia. (Article, Link)
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» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-400 (SA-20 Triumf)
Friedman on Russia Using Missile Defense as a Geopolitical Lever
June 12, 2007 :: Stratfor :: Analysis
George Friedman of Stratfor analyzes Russia's past hostility to ballistic missile defense and the nature of Russian hostility to the current American plan to construct such a system in the Czech Republic and Poland. Friedman characterizes both the Russian opposition to the plan and its counter-proposal as carefully constructed steps to strain Washington-Warsaw relations and regain influence in Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union.
Historically, Russia has opposed BMD because it would destroy the concept of mutually assured destruction. Since the USSR lacked the economic and technological ability to match the U.S. if it built such a system, Soviet policy makers aggressively combated and killed Reagan's "Star Wars" plan. However, the nature of the opposition has changed. The current U.S. plan uses ten interceptors, hardly enough to diminish Russia's tremendous nuclear deterrent.
Russia has long resented NATO's eastward expansion into its former sphere of influence, but could do little to resist the trend while recovering from the fall of the USSR. "The Russians believed they had an understanding with NATO and the United States, dating back to the fall of the Soviet Union, that NATO would not be extended into Central Europe—and certainly never into the FSU." As its economy has improved, Russia is increasingly verbalizing that grudge, and pushing against that trend. Russia opposes the current missile defense plan not because of historical reasons, explains Friedman, but specifically because of missile defense:
[A]s a symbol of a Polish-U.S. alliance that transcends NATO, it is absolutely vital. The Poles wanted the missiles in their country to symbolize the link, and the Americans wanted them there for the same reason. As long as that link exists, the Poles feel secure, and as long as the Poles feel secure, they will be a thorn in the side of the Russians. The Russian goal of exerting a sphere of influence in the FSU has a broader component. Russia does not expect to regain influence in most of Central Europe— Serbia possibly excepted. It does want the Central Europeans to be sufficiently wary of the Russians as to exercise caution.
Such an alliance would embolden Warsaw and Washington to furthur engage in pro-Western agitation, especially in Ukraine. "Of all of the former European satellites, Poland has been the most openly anti-Russian and the most active in supporting forces in the FSU that also are resisting Russian resurgence."
After feigning outrage over the U.S. plan for months, Russia abruptly changed face and issued a counter-proposal at the G-8 meeting that would place the U.S.'s missiles in Iraq or Turkey and use a pre-existing Russian radar facility in Azerbaijan instead. The proposal masterfully portrays Russia as cooperative and flexible, while leaving the U.S. in a difficult position. Despite the fact that the radar facility is far too close to Iran and the Middle East to prove as efficient as the current plan, "by rejecting the proposal, Washington would look hostile and uncompromising. Accepting it would mean basing the missiles near the Iranian border, possibly too close to intercept long-range missiles fired from there. Using Russian radar—which currently is insufficient for U.S. needs—would make the entire system dependent on Russian cooperation. And pulling the system from Poland would be a signal to Central Europe that military agreements with the United States are subject to negotiation with the Russians. That, of course, is exactly the signal Putin wants sent." Friedman concludes, "The Russians now have very little to lose and quite a bit to gain from confrontation." (Article, Link)
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Bush Thanks Poland for Missile Defense Support
June 11, 2007 :: U.S. Department of State :: News
On June 8 in Gdansk, Poland, President George Bush praised Poland's support for hosting elements of a missile defense system that would protect Europe and the United States against a ballistic missile attack from the Middle East. "I appreciate the support of the deployment of the missile defense interceptors here in Poland." President Bush also addressed the concerns of several European countries which feared that they would not be covered by the proposed shield. "We will negotiate a fair agreement that enhances the security of Poland, and the security of the entire continent against rogue regimes that might be willing to try to blackmail free nations." Both Polish President Lech Kaczynski and President Bush reiterated the defensive nature of the system. (Article, Link)
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Coyle on the European Missile Shield
June 8, 2007 :: Analysis
The Tehran Times carries Philip Coyle's response to a surprise proposal concerning European missile defense by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-8 summit in Germany. Philip Coyle is a Senior Advisor to the Center for Defense Information and a former assistant secretary of defense.
Russia's compromise to the U.S. plan to base an X-band radar facility in the Czech Republic was to use a pre-existing radar facility in Azerbaijan. Coyle argues the Azeri site would be advantageous:
At that location, the proposed missile defenses can 'defend' all of Europe, including South Eastern Europe. The Poland/Czech Republic arrangement cannot 'cover' all of Europe. Also a radar at the Azerbaijan site cannot 'see' Russian missile launches going over the pole towards America, which means that it cannot be used to defend America from Russia.
Coyle concludes that "if Russia is not an enemy, as President Bush says, he should be willing to seriously consider this proposal. Ever since President Reagan, the U.S. has been saying it wants to cooperate with Russia on missile defense and then it doesn't happen. Maybe this time it will." (Article, Link)
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Bush and Putin Set to Meet at G-8
June 7, 2007 :: CNN :: News
President George W. Bush planned to discuss US plans to build a missile defense system in Eastern Europe with Russian President Vladimir Putin while in Heiligendamm, Germany, for the G-8 summit. The proposed American system would involve ten Ground Based Interceptors in Poland and a radar facility in the Czech Republic, is designed to defend against a limited missile attack from countries in the Middle East, such as Iran.
A number of Russian officials, including Putin, have expressed serious concerns that the system could serve to negate its offensive nuclear arsenal, resents the placement of the facilities in its former sphere of influence. Putin has also threatened that any such deployment could result in Russian retargeting of its missiles toward Europe. President Bush has reiterated that the ten interceptors pose no threat to Russia's broad strategic forces, and said he hoped to convince Putin that the proposed U.S. missile interceptors is not an issue "to be hyperventilating about." (Article, Link)
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Russia Not Planning Withdrawal from Arms Treaty
June 7, 2007 :: Defense News :: News
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on June 6 that the “question will not be raised” as to whether Russia will withdraw from the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty at an emergency meeting later this month. Russian President Putin had previously called for a freeze of Russia’s compliance with the treaty, and suggesting that Russia could withdraw. NATO and Russia have disputed the treaty's provisions since 1999. NATO says Russia has not honored its commitments to withdraw forces from Moldova and Georgia, while Russia accuses the U.S. of proposing to militarize Eastern Europe with new missile facilities and bases in Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Bulgaria. (Article, Link)
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Analysts Defend Putin's Objections
June 7, 2007 :: AFP :: Analysis
A news report by the AFP cites two international security analysts defending the skeptical Russian response to American proposals for missile defenses in Eastern Europe. Retired Russian General Gennady Evstafiev said that the plan could well be viewed as the first step toward a future U.S. defense posture which could be threatening to Russia. "The Americans say `well, it's just these 10 little rockets.' But this is not the issue—of course these things are not a threat to us," Evstafiev said. "The real issue is that no one knows what comes next. What do the Americans plan to do after that?" Evstafiev also claims that the planned U.S. radar facility in the Czech Republic would be powerful enough to "survey Russian territory as far east as the Urals," including missile tests on Russian territory. Pavel Podvig, an international security expert at Stanford University concludes that "Missile defense locks us in confrontational mentality, imposing Cold War schemes on the US-Russian relationship...This is what Rice should have termed 'purely ludicrous.'" (Article, Link)
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Gorbachev to U.S.: "Let's Not Repeat Cold War"
June 6, 2007 :: CNN :: News
Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev (1985-1991) spoke from Moscow that a U.S. plan to install missile interceptors and a radar facility in Eastern Europe could reignite old Cold War feuds. "We are being drawn into another arms race," he said. Gorbachev believed the Bush administration once again believed militarization to be the answer, when that philosophy should have been discredited by U.S. foreign policy faliures. Gorbachev also discussed Russian democratization and the need to prevent Iran from getting a bomb. (Article, Link)
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Russia Plans "Totally Effective" Response to U.S. Missile Plan
June 6, 2007 :: Spacewar.com :: News
A Kremlin spokesman said Russia plans a "totally effective" response to the deployment of any U.S. missile defense systems in Europe. Russia would take such actions, despite the fact that such deployments would pose little threat to the Russian nuclear arsenal, in order to further ensure its security. President Putin said earlier this week that retargeting Russia's missiles at European cities could be a component of his country's response. "Retargeting" of missiles is however largely a symbolic gesture, as missiles' targets can be switched easily. (Article, Link)
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Financial Times: Russia Has Lost All Sense of Proportion over Missile Defense
June 4, 2007 :: Financial Times :: Analysis
An editorial in The Financial Times criticizes Russian President Vladimir Putin for his bellicose rhetoric concerning the U.S. plan to house components of a limited missile defense system in Eastern Europe. In response, President Putin has threatened to withdraw from two major arms control treaties, ushering in a new freeze in U.S.-Russian relations. The Financial Times concludes:
The US could take more steps to defuse the dispute, not least discussing whether it could cap the number of interceptors at the Polish site. But the main responsibility rests with Mr Putin. Everything he has done so far this year has been to make missile defence a zero sum game from which only one side can emerge the winner. That is not the approach of a statesman. It is time for Mr Putin to overcome his country's resentment of the west and demonstrate that his Russia is a partner, not an old, aggrieved foe.
(Article, Link)
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