Russia to Repeat Failed Missile Tests
March 1, 2004 :: Itar-Tass :: News
The Itar-Tass news agency reports that Russian President Putin has ordered his defense chief to redo the three failed missile tests during the massive and highly publicized February nuclear war exercise. “I task you to prepare as soon as possible new exercises, perhaps on a smaller scale, so I could make sure that all mistakes have been fixed,” Putin is quoted as saying at a meeting of top military officials.
On February 17, two SLBMs failed to launch properly from the Novomoskovsk submarine in the Barents Sea, and the following day another missile engaged its self-destruct mechanism after it diverted from its set course.
It was not clarified if these re-tests would be in addition to the ten tests already said to be planned for 2004. (Article, Link)
» Itar Tass account of order to redo tests
» Mar. 2, 2004: Itar Tass: Investigation results due in April
» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign
New Russian Ballistic Missiles by End of Decade
February 27, 2004 :: NTI :: News
Col.-Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, senior deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, gave an interview published in the February 26 edition of Russkii Kurier. The interview has been noted by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, an anti-missile defense organization supported in large part by its co-chair, Ted Turner. What NTI reports from this interview, and what they do not, are quite illustrative of their bias. A more complete reading of the interview supports the conclusion that Russia’s ballistic missile arsenal remains a threat to the United States, and should properly be seen as an additional reason to deploy a comprehensive defense, rather than a reason not to do so.
Following up on Putin’s remarks a week ago, Baluyevsky spoke of the missiles’ increased maneuverability, designed to penetrate American missile defenses. NTI predictably quotes these, so as to emphasize that Russia will effortlessly make U.S. defenses, to use Putin’s phrase, “useless.”
In response to the question, of whether “Russia is totally opposed to building missile defense systems,” Baluyevsky responded that this was clearly not the case:
No, Russia is not against missile defense. Moreover, Russia is the only country to possess a missile defense system already. Built in accordance with the ABM Treaty of 1972, it is combat-ready… We have only one objective. We advocate missile defense systems that will ensure protection against single launches, not mass strikes. We mean protection from any missiles that may end up in the hands of international terrorists. At present, neither the Russian missile defense system nor the one the United States is building will provide protection against mass strikes. At the same time, we are opposed to missile defense systems that may pose a threat to Russia or devalue its arsenals. I’m talking about the strategic arsenals. Our objective is simple and clear, I think. All our actions, including actions in connection with the appearance of missile defense systems in other countries, aim to maintain Russia’s capacity to do unacceptable damage to an aggressor, no matter where the aggressor is.
As Baluyevsky noted—but NTI did not—Russia continues to maintain and advance the extensive missile defense system of the Soviet Union.
As frequently noted here, Russia wishes the United States to perpetuate the dangerous doctrine of mutually assured destruction vis a vis the former Soviet Union, no less after the withdrawal from the ABM Treaty than when MAD was the law of the land for the thirty years when the treaty was in force. Russia’s wish will be fulfilled if the United States deploys only very limited missile defenses, that is, those which do not protect from the nuclear-armed ballistic missiles of China and Russia.
The recent remarks by Putin and Baluyevsky should be seen as directed at U.S. plans to deploy a limited missile defense system this year, for the purpose of undermininng domestic support for the system within the U.S. The selective reporting by NTI seems to serve the same purpose. (More »»»)
» Feb. 18, 2004: Putin: Russia to get new offensive and defensive strategic weapons
» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses
Tenet Testimony: North Korea Continues Ballistic Missile Advances
February 24, 2004 :: CIA :: News
Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet testified before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence as to the nature and extent of terrorism and the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. In general, he noted that the “picture is changing before our eyes—-changing at a rate I have not seen since the end of the Cold War.” After noting the continued efforts of terrorists such as Al Qaeda to acquire ballistic missiles and WMDs, Tenet went on to roughly outline the major capabilities and proliferation activities of India, Pakistan, Syria, and Iran, but devoted particular attention to three “pivotal states” of concern: China, Russia, and North Korea. (More »»»)
» More stories on: China, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Proliferation, Russia, Syria, Terrorism
Russia Launches Military Satellite
February 18, 2004 :: News
Russia has launched a strategic communication satellite as part of its massive strategic exercises. The Cosmos-2405 (Molniya-1T) communication satellite was successfully placed in orbit by a Molniya-M rocket from the Plesetsk launch site. President Putin is said to have personally observed the launch. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Russia, Space-Based Systems
Russia to Develop New Strategic Weapon Systems
February 18, 2004 :: Los Angeles Times :: News
In the midst of extensive strategic nuclear war exercises, President Putin today announced to reporters that Russia would be getting new strategic weapons, and would be upgrading its missile defense system, plans for which he said have been in the making for over a dozen years. Putin’s comments come after he watched the launch of a military satellite at the Plesetsk cosmodrome—-the purpose of which is to simulate launching satellites during a nuclear war to replace those lost in the conflict.
The Los Angeles Times’ wording to describe Russia’s “possible effort to develop a Russian missile defense system” is deceptive, of course. Russia has maintained the Soviet-era missile defense system, which has now been in place for decades around Moscow. Russia will likely be advancing and exapanding its already deployed systems, as they have continued to do over the years.
As for Russia’s new offensive strategic weapons, Putin did not elaborate, but said that they would be “capable to hit targets deep inside continents at hypersonic speed and change the altitude and direction of their flight,” according to the Russian Interfax news agency. Although Putin claimed that these efforts were not aimed at the U.S., one may be reasonably sure this is not the case. The U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty and the plans to deploy a limited missile defense system this year make it more than probable that the U.S. is at least among the new threats Putin spoke of the need to counter. Such weapons, likely the reentry vehicles for nuclear warheads, which are able to “change the altitude and direction of their flight” by means of things such as “penetration aids,” are primarily of interest only to overcome missile defenses—such as the hit-to-kill defenses the U.S. will be deploying in 2004. Currently, Putin noted, “No country in the world has such kind of systems.”
Such a “maneuverable warhead” would be capable of changing directions during reentry to confuse terminal phase defenses. Of course, the possible merits of such technology should be seen as another reason to pursue boost-phase defense, during the missile’s vulnerable ascent period, before any countermeasures can be deployed. Aviation Week & Space Technology reported on Monday that that Russia had conducted a second successful test of a new warhead for the advanced SS-27 ICBM, which is said to be powered by a supersonic combustion ramjet.
The Los Angeles Times quotes Arms Control Association Executive Director Daryl Kimball, saying that Putin’s announcement signals a Russian intent to continue to engage in a post-Cold War arms race with the United States. “This illustrates that the U.S. and Russia both continue to develop ever more modern and deadly ballistic missile systems, and the Cold War continues, despite the friendly words from Putin.” Such an assessment points to the strategic clarity which must be required as the United States begins to deploy a limited missile defense system this year. Russia is continuing to test and modernize its own nuclear forces, and are willing to pursue both offensive and defensive measures. With this in mind, the U.S. must not only boldly deploy those limited systems slated for this year, but be prepared to meet and match the threat from wherever it comes: not only from rogue nations, but from China and Russia as well. The Bush administration has outlined plans by which the 2004 system will “evolve.” It is to these threats that evolution must be directed. (Article, Link)
» Xinhau on Putin announcement
» Pravda: Putin means to pursue “Star Wars”
» More stories on: Maneuverable Warheads, Nuclear Weapons, Russia, Russian Missile Defenses
Russian Gearing Up for 10 ICBM tests in 2004
February 12, 2004 :: CNS News :: News
Russian Strategic Missile Forces head Nikolai Solovtsov is said to have told the official Rossiiskaya Gazeta daily newspaper that a total of ten “test-combat” missile launches were planned for 2004. It is as yet unclear how many of these were part of the February war games. However, so far the exercises have included two SLBM abortive launches, a Topol SS-25, an SS-19, and the launch of a military communications satellite. (Article, Link)
» Dec. 26, 2003: Russia tests SLBM, its third missile this month
» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: SS-21 B, SS-N-5
Russia Begins Nuclear War Exercise; Rivals 1982 “Seven Hour Nuclear War”
February 11, 2004 :: AP :: News
Russia has begun the first stages of a massive “all-out nuclear war” exercise, according to reports from several Russian newspapers. The largest in over two decades, the war games rival the “seven hour nuclear war” maneuvers by the Soviet Union in 1982. The tests include test firings of sea and land-based ballistic missiles, strategic bombers, cruise missiles, spy satellite launches, the simulated destruction of a U.S. satellite, and a test of the Moscow ABM system.
The military exercise, overseen by President Vladimir Putin, will test the Russian nuclear triad while showing the world that Russia is still a first rate military power. Some dismiss the goals of the exercise as innocuous political maneuvers in anticipation of the Russian Presidential election in March. Officially, the exercise is said to be anti-terrorism-related. But a more likely explanation is that, like the 1982 tests, this exercise serves the genuine goals of sharpening of Russia’s offensive nuclear deterrent against the United States, overcoming American missile defenses, and upgrading Russia’s own missile defenses. As Putin commented last week, “The world should see our military power as an element of strategic security.” (More »»»)
» Update: Feb. 18: Itar-Tass: SS-19 Missile Launched
» Pravda description of nuclear exercise
» Update: Feb. 17, 2004: Two SLBM launches fail
» Russia denies Interfax, Itar-Tass reports of missile failures
» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons, Russia, Russian Missile Defenses, Testing - Foreign
Russia Upgrading Missile for S-300 System
January 14, 2004 :: RIA-Novosti :: News
According to a report by the Russian Information Agency cited by the American Foreign Policy Council, Russia plans to upgrade the missile interceptor for its S-300 “theatre” missile defense system. Vladimir Mikhailov, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Air Force, is cited as saying that Russian specialists are working on an extended range interceptors. Russia’s marketing of the S-300 has included the Mideast, China and India.
Geostrategy-direct also reports the January 14 story of RIA Novisti, clarifying that the new upgrades would be to better equip the dual-purpose system for missile defense. More importantly, however, Mikhailov is quoted as saying that Russia has accelerated development of the more advanced S-400 missile defense system, offered to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and will be “a complete anti-aircraft and missile defense system.” (Article, Link)
» Sep. 3, 2003: Russian S-300s to go to Vietnam
» Dec. 2, 2003: Russia’s S-300 and S-400 for Europe?
» Geostrategy Direct on S-300, S-400 upgrade plans
» Sep. 16, 2003: Iran interested in Russian S-400
» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses
» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant)
Russia Tests Yet Another SLBM
December 26, 2003 :: Global Security Newswire :: News
On December 26, Russia tested yet another submarine-launched ballistic missile, its third test this month. The Global Security Newswire cites Russia’s Defense and Security publication that the test was carried out from the Yekaterinburg Delta IV class ballistic missile submarine, and fired toward a target in the firing range located in the Kamchatka peninsula. (Article, Link)
» Dec. 11: Second Russian Ballistic Missile Test in a Week
» Dec. 5: Russia Continues Missile Testing
» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign
Russia Deploys New Regiment of Topol-M SS-27 ICBMs; More Advanced Missiles Yet to Come
December 21, 2003 :: London Guardian :: News
On Sunday, December 21, Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces formally deployed a new regiment of six silo-based Topol-M (SS-27) intercontinental ballistic missiles, armed with a single warhead each. Announcement of the deployment comes just ten days after a test of the SS-N-30 SLBM. The deployment supplements three additional regiments at the Tatishchevo base, bringing the total number of operationally deployed Topol-M missiles to 36. Tatishchevo is located in the Saratov region, in the southwest part of Russia, next to Kazakstan. (More »»»)
» November 11: Janes: Fifth Topol-M deployment anticipated
» Xinhau: Putin: Russia will maintain strategic momentum
» Map and information for Tatishchevo missile base in Saratov
» More stories on: Proliferation, Russia
» Missile details: SS-N-6
