North Korea Building More Bases for “New” Missiles
May 4, 2004 :: The Chosun Ilbo (S. Korea) :: News
North Korea is currently building additional bases for mobile intermediate range missiles with a range of 4,000km which are capable of reaching Hawaii, reports the South Korean Chosun Ilbo newspaper. United States intelligence satellites have identified some 10 new ballistic missiles and launchers at two locations which were not their previously, said an unidentified official: “One of the new bases was in Yangdok, 80 kilometers east of the capital Pyongyang, and the other was in Hochon in South Hamgyong province, the official said.” The same source noted that “these bases are assumed to be the bases for new ballistic missiles and not for Scuds or Ro Dong-1 missiles.”
The Chosun Ilbo reports further that these new missiles may be of Russian origin:
The new ballistic missile is presumed to be a modified model of the former Soviet Union’s SS-N-6 submarine-launched ballistic missile, and was originally expected to be revealed to the public at the 9 September festival [founding anniversary of the DPRK] in 2003. North Korea, however, only moved 10 of these missiles and five mobile launching pads to the Mirim Airport, where the parade was prepared, but did not actually show them during the parade.
This missile is 12 metres long and 1.5 metres wide, and is thus shorter than the Ro Dong-1 (15 metres long) and Taepo Dong-1 (23 metres), but its range is much longer and is evaluated to be more advanced in technology.
Relevant authorities believe that former Soviet missile scientists may have directly participated in the development or at least Russian technology was utilized in [the building of the] missile, whose development started in the early 1990s and whose existence was first confirmed by ROK and US intelligence authorities in 2000.
(Article, Link)
» Description of new missile, “No-Dong B”
» Chosun Ilbo text, via Financial Times (subscription)
» More stories on: North Korea, Proliferation, Russia
» Missile details: SS-N-6
Mobile-Launched, BMD-Resistant Topol-M ICBM Ready by 2006
April 27, 2004 :: Itar-Tass :: News
One week after Russia test launched a mobile-launched Topol-M ICBM, Yuriy Solomonov, the director of the Moscow Institute of Heat Technology said in an interview with the ITAR-TASS news agency that the mobile launched version would be ready for deployment by 2006. The mobile launch capabiity serves the purpose of making it difficult for the United States to know where Russia’s missiles are at any given time, and thus make it more difficult to defend against them.
BBC also reports that on April 26 Radio Mayak in Moscow carried a description of the Topol-M’s resistance to American missile defenses, part of which was the following:
The Topol-M currently has a 60 percent chance of overcoming US air defence systems and this will rise to 87 percent, partly because it is very hard to find the mobile launchers. They can travel, camouflaged from satellites, along ordinary roads so that a missile can be launched from any location while interception becomes considerably more difficult. In addition, each mobile-launched Topol-M will have from four to six nuclear warheads as well as several dummy targets.
(Article, Link)
» Transcript of Russian radio discussion of Topol M (subscription)
» SpaceDaily: Mobile Topol-M Deployment by 2006
» More stories on: Russia
» Missile details: SS-27
Russia: Space a Clear Interest
April 27, 2004 :: News
Vladimir Putin told the Russian space sector leadership today that space activity is key to Russia’s development, reports Rosbalt news.
Putin, Rosbalt notes, said that the development of space unquestionably plays an important role in national security, economic growth and increased competitiveness.
In a January 2001 special session of the Defense Council, Russia’s space policies were reportedly discussed as both strategic and practical goals to strengthen Russia’s position in the world. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Russia, Space-Based Systems
McNamara: Nuclear Threat From Russia Still Exists
April 27, 2004 :: LA Times :: Analysis
Writing in the LA Times, former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, who helped make mutually assured destruction U.S. policy in 1962, notes that Russia still remians a serious threat to the United States. A nuclear attack from Russia remains a very real scenario, he and co-author Helin Caldicott noted, “whether by accident, human fallibility or malfeasance.” McNamara and Caldicott go on to argue that this means the United States should pursue disarmament. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Russia
Russia Tests Topol-M ICBM
April 20, 2004 :: News
Russia has test-launched a mobile-launched Topol-M (RS-12M2) missile today, Russia’s most advanced ICBM. The Topol-M is already currently deployed, but not on a mobile launcher.
The missile was fired from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in northern Russia and was directed into the center of the Pacific Ocean. Russian Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov said at a conference with President Putin that the launch was similar to the one carried out last winter at Plesetsk, and that one more launch remains before a decision is made about transferring the mobile launchers into service. Ivanov also noted that the test was of the missile’s maximum range, of 11,500km. Putin responded that the launch was an “important event for the armed forces of Russia.” (More »»»)
» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: SS-27
U.S., Russia Preparing to Sign Missile Defense Agreement
April 7, 2004 :: News
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov in Oslo reported that the U.S. and Russia are preparing to sign an agreement which would provide Russia access to U.S. missile defense technologies, and vice versa, and become a basis for the development of a joint missile defense system. Ivanov spoke of missile tracking systems, but indicated actual development could also take place. The comments came amidst his confirming that Russia would cooperate with the Bush Administration’s Proliferation Security Initiative, designed to intercept weapons of mass destruction and missiles before they can be transferred to, from, or between rogue states.
One might well be suspicious of such cooperation with Russia. Agreements which would narrowly limit limit U.S. missile defenses or make their technologies intimate knowledge of Russia—and anyone Russia chose to give the information to—would effectively return us to a situation very similar to that under the ABM Treaty: namely, that America would not be able to defend against the arsenals of Russia and China. Anything which limits American missile defenses and prevents their becoming truly strategic defenses—a policy for which Russia has repeatedly called for since it became obvious the US would withdraw from the Treaty—will effectively maintain the Cold War policy of mutually assured destruction. True, limited defenses would not involve rogue states in such a policy of MAD, but it would remain essentially intact with regard to Russia and China. (Article, Link)
» Apr. 21, 2001: Russia favors non-strategic missile defense
» More stories on: Policy, Russia
Russia Tests Tochka-U SRBM in Siberia
April 2, 2004 :: RIA-Novosti :: News
Russia has today conducted a test launch in the Trans-Baykal region of the short range Tochka-U ballistic missile. The test was part of Command Post Exercises in the Siberian Military District, and the missile successfully destroyed the hypothetical enemy’s command post. The Tochka-U, which is offered for export, is a version of the SS-21 (“Scarab B”) with a composite fuel, and an extended range of of 120 km. The Russian RIA news agency reports that the unit which tested the SS-21 today has alone had over 60 successful combat launches. (Article, Link)
» FT: Russian preparing six launches of target missiles
» BBC report of launch
» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: SS-21 B
Russia’s New Strategic Weapons Again Touted
March 30, 2004 :: Financial Times :: News
On Monday March 29, Russian news sources Interfax and Itar-Tass reported an unidentified senior defense ministry official as commenting that Russia was developing “revolutionary” strategic systems which would “nullify” and render “useless” American missile defenses. The story has been widely reported through the Associated Press and CNN, as well as a host of other news bodies, as a sort of “mystery” weapon easily able to overcome U.S. missile defenses.
Remarkable about the recent report, however, is that there is nothing new being reported that was not said over a month ago, during the February war exercise. Links to the very similar reports are included below. One possible explanation is that the otherwise repetitive press conference was meant to follow upon the American test of the X-43 scramjet over the weekend. The “hypersonic” weapon and penetration aids for warheads to aide in the evasion of missile defenses during their reentry are not in themselves new concepts, but it could be that these sorts of Russian programs resemble the scramjet technology in some way.
It is important to recognize that the Russian claims of superiority, even on their face, are not all that revolutionary, and do not constitute such superiority after all. Indeed, though CNN talks of a “mystery” and “revolutionary” weapon, BBC cites the unnamed defense official as saying that they would be only “almost revolutionary.” Should the United States wish to overcome scramjet or other technologies with countermeasure applications, it has the capabilities available in laser weapons. Even a scramjet engine would have to travel for some time before being able to deliver a nuclear weapon to its destination. Space-based laser weapons which could target the missile during its slowest and most vulnerable phase, the boost-phase, still remain a viable option, and a realm in which defensive measures are not trumped by offensive ones.
The Monday story cites the Defense Ministry official as again bragging of Russian missile defense capabilities, noting that “the new military projects, if implemented, can effectively nullify completely the anti-missile defence system that is being developed in the USA.” Russia’s own missile defense efforts are not to be forgotten, and it is true that they have the potential to exceed American capabilities, at least in the near future. (Article, Link)
» Feb 27, 2004: New Russian missiles by end of decade
» Feb 18, 2004: Russia’s new strategic weapons systems
» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses
U.S.-Russian BMD Cooperation Expected to Continue
March 30, 2004 :: News
The March 30 edition of Aerospace Daily reports that the NATO-Russian missile defense joint efforts are likely to continue without major problems, quoting NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer as saying that he foresees “no major hiccups” in the future efforts.
Such cooperation may be salutary insofar as it encourages American missile defense efforts from its domestic opponents, but carries with it the spectre of limiting or otherwise rendering ineffective a missile defense capable of defending the US from the greatest and most strategic threats, that from the Russian and Chinese missile arsenals. (Link)
» More stories on: Policy, Russia, Russian Missile Defenses
Russia Newspaper: Strategic Exercises, ICBM Launches, Aimed at the United States
March 25, 2004 :: AFPC :: News
When Russia conducted its massive February war exercises, simulating the use of nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, it was disclaimed as having nothing to do with the United States. Rather, it was officially billed as an anti-terrorism exercise. At the time, we noted here that this was preposterous, and that the true target of the largest strategic exercise in 20 years was, of course, the United States.
Now the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta appears to confirm this assessment, reporting that the (failed) ICBM test launches planned for February 15 and 16 were a Soviet-style demonstration of power aimed at Russia’s “military-strategic opposite number,” the United States. “In Soviet times everything was clear: the military-industrial complex and an army of many millions existed because of oil exports…Now it appears that history is repeating itself: The country’s gold and foreign-currency reserves are in excess of $80 billion and continue to grow because of high world oil prices. So the ‘Soviet syndrome’…has come into operation.”
The strategic interests of a revitalized Russia should be conceived to be similar to those of its predecessor, the Soviet Union. It is for precisely this reason that missile defense efforts keep as their ultimate object the strategic defense of the United States, that is, the defense against not only rogue nations but potential missile attack from Russia. (Link)
» More stories on: Russia
