Joseph and Crouch: Press Ahead with Defenses Despite Russia
March 18, 2008 :: Washington Post :: Analysis
Writing recently in the Washington Post, former Undersecretary of State Robert Joseph and former Deputy National Security Adviser J. D. Crouch discuss on Moscow's opposition to limited missile defense systems in the former Soviet bloc countries of Poland and the Czech Republic. Joseph and Crouch, both now senior scholars at the National Institute for Public Policy, note that the arms race never materialized which missile defense opponents warned of when the United States withdrew from the 1972 ABM Treaty in 2002. Today, one sees Russia vigorously opposing even a limited system of ten ground-based interceptors and radars.
Today, the United States and Russia find themselves in opposition on the issue of deploying 10 missile interceptors and supporting radar to Europe -- an act of much less strategic consequence than abandonment of the ABM Treaty. Bush and his national security team have explained the concept, in considerable detail, to Russia's national security elite. Moscow objects by citing a threat to its own deterrent (an argument it knows has no merit) and the stationing of American forces near its borders (which reminds it of the painful loss of empire) and denies the existence of an Iranian missile threat.
Crouch and Joseph attribute Russia's stubborness to its wish to be a "major player," given that the technical capabilities of the ten interceptors are rather modest, and pose no real threat to Russia's strategic arsenal. Crouch and Joseph note that the Bush administration has tried to persuade Russia with diplomatic efforts over the last seven years, but largely to no avail. They conclude that the growing ballistic missile capabilities of Iran (acknowledged even by Russian military officials) make it imperative that the United States not give Russia a veto on the pursuit of these defensive capabilities.
Instead of trying to persuade Russia to do something that it does not perceive to be in its interest, the United States should redouble its efforts to advance the two initiatives sponsored by Bush and Putin that do enjoy widespread support in both countries. The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism has grown in a little over a year from 13 partners to more than 60. Russia has been a good partner because it is concerned about this threat. Similarly, Moscow has worked to put in place new approaches to expand the use of nuclear energy in a manner that meets energy and environmental goals and reduces the risk of proliferation. These joint efforts may provide a basis for building cooperation in other areas, perhaps setting a positive tone for the new Russian president.
On missile defense, the United States must move forward, just as Russia does when its vital interests are at stake. We should continue to be respectful and transparent about the need for our deployments but make clear that the United States will proceed without Moscow's cooperation. Going beyond current proposals for cooperation would encourage Russia to be even more intransigent, playing to its instinct to drive wedges between the United States and its allies, and would foster the Kremlin's policy to run out the clock in the hope that the next U.S. administration will abandon the effort in Europe.
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Bulava Missile Development Continues
March 3, 2008 :: RussianForces.org :: News
Pavel Podvig of RussianForces.org reports that during the meeting of the Military-Industrial Commission (VPK) during the last week in February, the commission agreed to continue the Bulava missile defense program. However, neither the Bulava (SS-NX-30) missile nor the Yuri Dolgorukiy "Project 955" submarine will be deployed this year, as previously expected by Yuri Solomonov. The year 2012 may be the newest date for the deployment of the Bulava. (Article, Link)
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» Missile details: SS-NX-30
Hackett: Iran's Missile Leap
February 25, 2008 :: Washington Times :: Analysis
James T. Hackett discusses Russia's reaction to Iran's recent missile launch in the February 25 edition of Washington Times. On February 4, Iran launched a modified "Shahab-3B" medium-range missile, designed to launch Iran's first domestically produced satellite, Omid-1, into orbit. An Iranian reconnaissance satellite could help missiles target sites in Israel, U.S. bases in the Middle East, and most importantly Europe or North America itself. Indeed, Iran's launch is eerily reminiscent of North Korea's 1998 launch of a 3-stage Taepodong missile, "which [Pyongyang] also claimed was for launching satellites." Even the Russians, who have shied away from tightening sanctions on Iran and have criticized the U.S.'s plan for a limited missile defense system in Europe, were concerned. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, "We do not approve of Iran's actions in constantly demonstrating its intentions to develop its rocket sector and in continuing to enrich uranium," while Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said Tehran's actions "provoke concern" and raise "suspicions" about its claim not to be building a nuclear weapon, since a long-range rocket is a key component of any nation's nuclear weapons capability. Given Iran's continued missile testing and improvements, Hackett concludes by stressing that Congress must fund the planned missile defense site planned for Eastern Europe. (Article, Link)
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Tellis: Don't Panic About Space Weapons
February 22, 2008 :: The Wall Street Journal :: Analysis
Ashley J. Tellis, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, analyzest the Chinese and Russian draft treaty aimed at banning weapons in space in the February 22 edition of the Wall Street Journal. Tellis argues that the treaty would in fact
neither effectively prohibit their deployment, nor conclusively annul the threat of force against space objects. It would only produce the illusion of security, while doing nothing to eliminate the counterspace capabilities currently present in many countries, especially China.
The principal problem is the treaty addresses weapons in space (of which there are none), as opposed to land- and sea-based kinetic, directed-energy and electromagnetic attack systems. However, even a retooled treaty to expand arms control regulation for these systems would miss the mark as "counterspace weapons are impossible to identify by national technical means, or even by intrusive inspections." An outright ban on these weapons would be unlikely given political considerations, and a treaty that allowed the development and deployment of these weapons but not their use would be open to abuse. Tellis argues that China and Russia support the draft treaty because of three political and strategic reasons.
First, they genuinely fear an imminent American deployment of space weapons—perhaps in connection with missile defense— and want a treaty to impede that deployment...Second, a space security treaty allows Russia and China to engage in some eye-catching histrionics. It enables them to dominate international public diplomacy and paint the U.S. as the irresponsible driver of a new arms race... Third, the Russian-Chinese draft treaty remains a splendid way for Beijing to draw international attention away from its own growing counterspace program—even as it enables Russia to assuage its own discomfort with China's space-denial capabilities.
Tellis concludes that the Bush administration is correct to reject this treaty, and encourages any new presidential administration to do the same. (Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, Space-Based Systems, Russia, China
Russia Threatens Ukraine
February 14, 2008 :: News
Russia has now added Ukraine to the list of countries it has threatened with nuclear retaliation for cooperation with the United States missile defense system.
Speaking at the Kremlin February 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko addressed the contentious issues of Ukraine joining NATO or allowing the U.S. to station components of a missile defense system on its soil. Putin said, "It is frightening not only to say but even to think that Russia, in response to the emergence of such positioning areas on Ukrainian territory, which cannot be ruled out in theory, will target its offensive missile systems at Ukraine...Can you imagine that for a second? That is what we are concerned about."
Yushchenko responded that he understood a number of "sensitive issues" would emerge from Ukrainian membership in NATO, but hoped they could be discussed with openness and trust. The leaders were meeting in Moscow to hold urgent talks over a gas dispute. Ukraine agreed to pay $1.5 billion to the Russian gas company Gazprom in return for a freeze in the price of gas exports to Ukraine. (Article, Link)
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Investor's Business Daily: From Russia with Love
February 13, 2008 :: Investor’s Business Daily :: Analysis
An editorial in the February 13 edition of Investor's Business Daily discusses Russia's military resurgence and hostility to the West. The editorial notes that after a decade of seeming irrelevance, Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun to rebuild the country's tarnished status as a global power. Flush with revenue from high oil and gas prices, Russia has "spen[t] heavily on the new Tu-160 supersonic strategic bomber, which can launch cruise missiles; the Su-34 Fullback all-weather fighter-bomber designed to attack heavily defended targets; and a fifth-generation fighter, the Sukhoi T-50, scheduled to become Russia's front-line fighter in 2008. " On February 9, Russian fighters intercepted a U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Russia also has resumed its long range bomber patrols. The editorial concludes by suggesting the current Democratic presidential hopefuls could not face this strategic challenge. "Will an Obama or a Clinton have the courage Reagan showed when he deployed Pershing missiles in West Germany in response to the Soviet SS-20 threat? Not likely. More probably we will see what Barack Obama calls "aggressive personal diplomacy," by which we bargain away our missile defense for a handful of beads while making nice with the thugs who plan to launch missiles against us." (Article, Link)
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U.S. Trying to Surround Russia, Lavrov Says
February 8, 2008 :: News
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sharply criticized the U.S.'s strategy to deploy a global missile defense, suggesting it is meant primarily to encircle and contain Russia. "If we look at a map, it's clear that all of it is concentrating around our borders," he said, according to the Associated Press. "More likely in the near future, we are going to hear about hundreds, and maybe even thousands, of interceptors in various regions of the planet, including Europe." Foreign Minister Lavrov made his statement as the U.S. is negotiating with Poland and the Czech Republic to deploy a missile defense system based in those two countries. Foreign Minister Lavrov said, "[What is] dangerous for us is the trend of American infrastructure getting closer to our borders. We don't see any justification for this step...We are talking openly with the Americans about our fears. If the plan goes through, we are going to be forced to respond adequately, developing our strategic forces near our borders." Russian President Vladimir Putin added later, "We drew down our bases in Cuba and Vietnam. What did we get? New American bases in Romania, Bulgaria. A new third missile defense region in Poland, where it's being built." (Link)
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Moscow to Deploy S-400 in Northwest Russia
February 7, 2008 :: RIA-Novosti :: News
Lieutenant General Vladimir Sviridov announced Russia will replace S-300 air and missile defense systems with the advanced S-400 model to the country's northwest. The S-400 system can intercept and destroy airborne targets, including stealth aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, up to 3,500 kilometers away at speeds up to 4.8 kilometers per second. The S-400 will comprise the backbone of Russia's theater air defense through 2020 or 2025. The S-400 systems will now defend the northwest of the country in addition to Moscow and various industrial zones in central Russia. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses
» Missile system details for: S-400 (SA-20 Triumf)
Russian Envoy Threatens Poland on Defense Cooperation with U.S. by Invoking WWII Plight
February 4, 2008 :: News
Moscow's envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, has warned Poland against accepting the basing of American missile defense interceptors. Rogozin threatened possible retaliation, and invoked memories of its World War II plight at the hands of its Soviet conquerers and oppressors. Rogozin is quoted by the Russian Interfax news agency as follows:
The Polish colleagues must be reminded of their recent history, which indicates that attempts to place Poland "on the confrontation line" have always led to tragedies. That way Poland lost nearly one third of its citizens during World War II....I was sure this horrible lesson would not be wasted and Poland would plan its foreign policy relying on friendly relations all along the borderline.
Poland and the U.S. have reportedly agreed "in principle" to the plan to emplace ten Ground Based Interceptors in Poland after assuring Warsaw that the United States would also help develop Poland's short and medium range air and missile defenses. The two sides did not elaborate on the terms of the tentative agreement, and it remained unclear whether the United States had made specific promises to provide air defense systems such as the Patriot. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Allies, European Missile Defenses, Russia
Russia Fires Cruise Missiles in Major Atlantic Exercise Near French and Spanish Coastlines
January 22, 2008 :: News
A Russian Tu-160 bomber test fired a P-500 (SS-N-12) Bazalt cruise missile during the country’s first major air and naval exercises in the Atlantic Ocean in fifteen years. The test was conducted in the Bay of Biscay, off the coasts of NATO members France and Spain. The P-500 is a liquid-fueled supersonic cruise missile, with a range of 550 kilometers and a payload of 1,000 kilograms. The Russian Joint Naval Task Force, comprised of the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier other destroyers and submarine hunters displayed high interoperability with the aircraft and will continue to test various systems for several more days. Russia’s latest exercise comes before its Presidential election, and is seen as part of a series of actions, including reviving North Sea overflights, to revive Russia’s military power. (Article, Link)
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» Cruise missile details: SS-N-12
