Al Qaeda’s Ballistic Missile and WMD Plans
March 22, 2004 :: AFPC :: News
Pakistan’s Khabrain newspaper of March 12 claims that Al-Qaeda has for the past year been preparing chemical- and nuclear-armed ballistic missiles somewhere within Afghanistan for use aganist the United States, as noted by the American Foreign Policy Council. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation, Terrorism
Chinese Bullying Continues: Five Missile Tests in Advance of Taiwan Referendum
March 18, 2004 :: Washington Times :: News
U.S. intelligence officials report that China has carried “at least” five missile tests since January, according to Bill Gertz in the Washington Times. The report comes just two days before Taiwan conducts its referendum on missile defense.
The five tests are said to have included four types of missiles, the medium-range DF-21, the long-range DF-31, and the short-range DF-11 and DF-15. The missiles are all said to have been launched from the Wuzhai missile testing center in central China, and were directed toward the western part of the country.
China currently has about 500 missiles within range of Taiwan, a number which continues to increase at a rate of 75 per year.
“These tests make a mockery of all the efforts made by Washington to suppress the Taiwan missile referendum,” said Richard Fisher, a specialist on the Chinese military with the Center for Security Policy. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Taiwan
China and Pakistan Surpassing North Korea as Chief Missile Proliferators to Mideast
March 17, 2004 :: East Asia Intel :: News
When it comes to missile proliferation, its no easy to task to better North Korea. But China and its ally, Pakistan, seem intent on doing so.
As North Korea’s proliferation has slowed due to international pressure, the mideast missile market, countries such as Iran and Syria, are seeking out other standbys, reports East-Asia-Intel.com. North Korea has been said to have sold $580 million worth of missiles to the mideast in 2001. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, North Korea, Pakistan, Proliferation
Pakistan’s Hatf III Missile Ready for Service
March 11, 2004
The March 2004 edition of Janes Missiles and Rockets reports that Pakistan’s Hatf III, or Ghaznavi, missile is ready for service. The Hatf III is based on the Chinese M-11 (CSS-7). (Link)
» Mar. 9: Pakistan tests Hatf-6 (Shaheen II)
» More stories on: Pakistan, Proliferation
» Missile details: Hatf 3
Iran Seeks Cruise Missile to Overcome U.S. Missile Defenses
March 11, 2004 :: Geostrategy-Direct :: News
Geostrategy-direct quotes U.S. officials as saying that in addition to its ballistic missile capabilities Iran is also developing a cruise missile designed to overcome potential defenses, such as the Patriot missile. The missile with a range of 300km and based on the Chinese HY-2, would be part of a multi-layered force to supplement such ballistic missiles as the Shahab 3 and Shahab 4. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, Proliferation
Iran Defiant; Will Continue to Enrich Uranium
March 10, 2004 :: Financial Times :: News
All too frequently, Americans hear that the only threat to the United States in the twenty-first century will come from terrorists. The reality, however, is that many nations continue to develop advances nuclear technologies despite UN sanctions and threats of suspended aid packages—and, in some cases, with the assistance of signatories to non-proliferation documents, such as Russia and China.
Despite U.S. protests, Iran continues to advance its uranium enrichment program that is capable of developing first-rate nuclear warheads. Officially, weapons technology is sold by Russia for use in civilian reactors but the degree of enrichment Iran has been trying to acquire is far more consistent with high yield nuclear weapons. Here, again, is yet another example that export controls and non-proliferation measures, while important and laudatory, may ultimately be insufficient in the absence of extraordinarily strong political will—and even in its presence. The former Soviet Union is a signatory of the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, where it pledged “not in any way assist, encourage, or induce any non-nuclear-weapon state to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons.” Such is the reliability of paper restrictions on proliferation.
Once completed, Iranian nuclear warheads might be deployed on the Shahab-6 ballistic missile, the longest-range missile Iran is believed to have in development, which is believed to be able to travel some 6,000km. That Iran continues to pursue long range missiles to complement its nascent nuclear warheads is clear, as illustrated by their recent announcement of their intention to extend the range of the Shahab-3. (Article, Link)
» Feb. 25, 2004: Iran upgrading range of Shahab-3
» Mar. 11, 2004: Russia opposes UN resolution against Iran
» More stories on: Iran, Proliferation
» Missile details: SS-1B 'Scud A'
Tenet: China’s Defense Budget Twice What They Report; Continue to Acquire Missiles From Russia
March 9, 2004 :: CIA :: News
Testifying before the Armed Services Committee, CIA Director George Tenet expressed the “greatest concern” with China’s military buildup.
China’s neighbors still harbor suspicions about Beijing’s long-term intentions. They generally favor a sustained US military presence in the region as insurance against potential Chinese aggression.
Our greatest concern remains China’s military buildup, which continues to accelerate. On Saturday, China’s Minister of Finance announced a new defense budget that is 11.6 percent larger than last year’s. China’s announced annual defense budget has grown from some $7 billion ten years ago to over $25 billion today. Moreover, we assess the announced figure accounts for less than half of China’s actual defense spending.
Last year, Beijing reached new benchmarks in its production or acquisition from Russia of missiles, submarines, other naval combatants, and advanced fighter aircraft. China also is downsizing and restructuring its military forces with an eye toward enhancing its capabilities for the modern battlefield. All of these steps will over time make China a formidable challenger if Beijing perceived that its interests were being thwarted in the region.
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Russia
Russian Engineers Aided Iraq’s Long Range Ballistic Missile Programs
March 5, 2004 :: New York Times :: News
As often emphasized here, the greatest sources of ballistic missile proliferation are ultimately Russia and China, however much rogue state proxies may sometimes be involved. A story in today’s New York Times confirms this unappreciated fact, outlining how Russian ballistic missile technology aided Saddam Hussein’s missile programs until not too long before last year’s war.
The assistance of Russian engineers to Iraq’s missile programs constituted a violation of the United Nations sanctions. Like Russia’s assistance of Iran reported here yesterday, such aid also constitutes a reminder that Russia’s interests in proliferation are quite different than those of the United States. Russia’s contempt for parchment barriers such as UN resolutions or the Non-Proliferation Treaty would appear to be similar to that they had for the ABM Treaty, which they clearly violated.
It is worth nothing that whatever the status of Iraq’s formerly documented WMD programs, their work on ballistic missiles until just before the war began is undisputed. (Article, Link)
» Mar. 4, 2004: Russia Providing Equipment for Iranian Missiles
» Ties to Ukraine, Belarus, Serbia, North Korea
» More stories on: Iraq, Proliferation, Russia
Study on China’s Stance Toward U.S. BMD, China’s Own Missile Defenses
March 4, 2004 :: Analysis
A study prepared by the Institute for Defense Analysis (IDA) for the Defense Intelligence Agency outlines both China’s likely response and attitudes toward U.S. ballistic missile defense, and China’s own missile defense efforts and systems.
The study, dated September 2003, divides the treatment of China’s strategic position towards missile defenses into 5 periods, beginning in 1955 and ending with 2002.
The outline of Chinese strategic doctrine from that of the Mao years, when nuclear weapons were regarded as just another weapon, through China’s very reluctant acceptance of something like mutually assured destruction, shows a policy which has not followed the same track as that of the United States in its nuclear thinking. Unlike Russia and domestic left-wing opponents, for example, China apparently may have considered Reagan’s SDI as potentially stabilizing.
Most interesting, however, is the (admittedly little) light shed on China’s own ballistic missile programs, which around 1964, when Chairman Mao ordered a long term BMD research. According to various sources cited, the program included a team of 8-10 scientists, a cost of some $100 million dollars, is described as having paralleled U.S. and Soviet research during the period, until Deng Xiaping allegedly cancelled the program in 1983. Another source cited, however, claims that there was a Program 640 which set out to field a viable defense which included “a kinetic kill vehicle, a high powered laser, space early warning, and target discrimination system components.” The study also notes that Secretary McNamara apparently hinted at such Chinese BMD developments in 1966. There is also evidence that China was weighing both a land-based defense and a space based defense in the 1980s. The study notes the plausibility of Chinese missile defenses patterned after Soviet and (previous) American interceptors which were nuclear-tipped, but hastily steps back to say that there is no evidence for this “in the literature surveyed for this essay.”
The study describes an “acceleration and expansion of China’s own efforts to build a missile defense system” during the 1990s. In addition to some 100 or more SA-300 air and missile defense interceptors acquired from Russia, China apparently also began work on the “Patriot-like” HQ-9 interceptor, and another with an extended range based on America’s more advanced PAC-3. One factor pushing this acceleration was concern for the need to defend the Three Gorges Dam—where China is believed to have such missile defenses currently deployed. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Chinese Missile Defenses, Proliferation
Asst. Secretary of State for Arms Control: “Russia should do better”
March 4, 2004 :: News
Stephen Rademaker, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, during his visit to Russia gave an interview published by the Russkii Kurier, where he indicated that Russia continues to contribute to the proliferation of ballistic missile systems and technology, here specifically in regard to Iran:
I informed my Russian colleagues that according to the information the US Department of State possesses, Iranian medium- and short-range missiles were equipped with Russian gear. It means that Russia should do better in implementing the treaty on nonproliferation of missile technologies. Russian colleagues assure me that Moscow sticks to the letter of the treaty and honors it, but I consider the matter open all the same.
Besides North Korea, Iran is the rogue state probably most likely to next develop long range ICBMs which could reach the United States. (More »»»)
» More stories on: Iran, Proliferation, Russia
