June 1, 2004 :: Department of Defense :: Analysis
The Department of Defense released its annual report to Congress, The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, which details China’s continued expansion of their ballistic missile capabilities, and ambitions of military superiority in the region, as well as significant ambitions in space.
The report also notes that China is devoting significant electronic warfare systems which could be used to jam the US GPS constellation, as well as “robust” research and development program for laser weapons. In addition, “Beijing may have acquired high-energy laser equipment that could be used in the development of ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons.”
Space, too, is essential to the future of modern warfare, and China is pursuing electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons, and “microsatellites.” All of this continues, despite China’s salutary denials of the militarization of space, and criticism of any American attempts to defend space assets: “Publicly, China opposes the militarization of space and seeks to prevent or slow the development of U.S. anti-satellite (ASAT) systems and space-based missile defenses,” the report notes; “Privately, however, China’s leaders probably view ASAT systems—and offensive counterspace systems, in general—as well as space-based missile defenses as inevitabilities.” China is said to be pursuing foreign technologies to develop its own domestic satellite-killing capability; “Given China’s current level of interest in laser technology, Beijing probably could develop a weapon that could destroy satellites in the future,” the report notes.
China also continues to modernize and accelerate its ballistic missile arsenal. China officially has only 20 ICBMs capable of striking the United States, but the report notes that it could have 30 by 2005, and as many as 60 by the end of the decade. Beijing is also expected to replace its 20 CSS-4 Mod 1 ICBMs with a still longer-range version, and to deploy the DF-31 ICBM by the end of the decade—if they have not done so already.
Update: Inside Missile Defense, citing the DOD report, notes China has added 50 short-range missiles to its stock in the past year, replacing those with liquid fuel with more reliable solid fuel missiles, and has designs to offer brigades of land-attack cruise missiles by the end of the decade.
At a June 4 luncheon, Missile Defense Agency Director Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish pointed out that the ground-based missile defense system the Bush administration hopes to deploy later this year against the North Korean nuclear and missile threat is solely for the North Korean threat. However, when it was asked if the system could deter a Chinese attack, Kadish said, “We are not focused on it because we have not been asked to focus on it.”
Yet the DOD report argues that the Chinese view the U.S. missile defense effort as a roadblock to its nuclear deterrent capability and a potential security umbrella for Taiwan: “China’s leaders are likely to believe that missile defense coverage of Taiwan would degrade the coercive value of the [People’s Liberation Army’s] growing conventional theater ballistic missile capability opposite the island.” (Article)
» Annual report, The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (.pdf)
» More stories on: China, Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Weapons, Proliferation, Space-Based Systems
» Missile details: CSS-9 (DF-31)
