Activity at North Korean Missile Base
October 27, 2004 :: The Chosun Ilbo (S. Korea) :: News
The South Korean Chosun Ilbo newspaper reports today that American, Japanese, and South Korean governments have observed increased activity at the Chongju missile base some 100km north of Pyongyang. The paper quotes a “high ranking” South Korean government source as saying on October 26 that
Beginning two to three days ago, North Korea has been showing moves that appear to be an attempt to test fire No Dong I and Scud Missiles, including the movement of a Scud missile mobile launcher from a missile base in Chongju, Northern Pyongan Province.
East Asia Intel reports that U.S. intelligence officials speculate that North Korea could attempt a launch so as to influence the approaching U.S. presidential election.
The Russian Itar Tass news agency quickly responded to the report with another, well-placed source in the North Korean government, who speculated that missile activity did not likely indicate any missile preparations, but was probably merely designed to be a response to the multi-country naval exercise currently taking place near Japan. The Russian paper quotes the North Korean as noting that, “If the Korean People’s Democratic Republic really intended to launch a missile, it would launch an anti-ship missile as usual from a base located on the Eastern coast."
North Korea’s Scuds and No Dongs are both believed to be derived from Russian missiles.
Similar reports of activity at North Korean missile bases also occurred at this time last month. (Link)
» Sep. 26: Increased activity at North Korean bases
» More stories on: North Korea
» Missile details: No-dong 1, No-dong 2, Scud B variant, Scud C variant
Iran Again Tests Shahab-3
October 20, 2004 :: AFP :: News
Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani announced that Iran had today again tested an upgraded version of its Shahab-3 ballistic missile, in the presence of observers. Shamkhani would not comment on the specific range or the location of the test, but Iran has previously claimed that the “strategic” missile has a range of 2,000km; Iran’s IRNA news agency last month quoted former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani that Iran possessed that capability. Such a range not only threatens Israel, but also U.S. bases in the region and parts of Europe. Rafsanjani also commented at the time, “Experts know that a country that possesses this [range] can obtain all subsequent stages in missile production.”
On October 7, Nasser Maleki, the deputy director of Iran’s aerospace industry organization, commented that “Very certainly we are going to improve our Shahab-3 and all of our other missiles.”
Iran’s ballistic missile development has been steady, and not without foreign help. The recent upgrades to the Shahab-3 are believed to be due in part to Chinese assistance, including a more accurate guidance system and an improved warhead more suited to carryign chemical weapons. Hours after today’s test, the Moscow News carried a piece boasting that the Iranian Shahab-3, and the North Korean No-Dong from which it was partly derived, both employ Russian missile technology. (Article, Link)
» Iran’s Revolutionary Guard acquiring greater control
» Oct. 20: Moscow News: Russian missile tech used for Iranian, North Korean advances
» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Proliferation, Russia, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: Shahab-3, Shahab-4
Superpower Proliferation to Iran: Seven Chinese Companies Sanctioned; Three from Former Soviet Union
September 27, 2004 :: Washington Times :: News
The State Department imposed sanctions on fourteen firms or individuals today for illicit proliferation, seven of which were on Chinese companies. The Chinese companies were sanctioned for the proliferation of unconventional weapons and missile technology to Iran.
In addition, one Belarusian, Russian, and Ukrainian companies were also sanctioned, as well as one from North Korea. Each of these entities was charged with selling materials to Iran.
State Department spokesman Richard Boucher commented on the Chinese companies that “There was credible evidence that these entities had transferred one of several categories of items to Iran” since January 1999. “That would be equipment listed on multilateral export lists, items that have a potential of making a contribution to weapons of mass destruction or cruise or ballistic missiles.” (More »»»)
» VOA: Fourteen firms or individuals sanctioned
» Sep. 29, 2004: 100 tons of S. Korean dual-use sodium cyanide reached N. Korea by way of China
» More stories on: China, Iran, North Korea, Proliferation, Russia
Fisher on North Korean Missile Threat
September 3, 2004 :: Inside the Ring (Washington Times) :: News
In their weekly column, Inside the Ring, Bill Gertz and Roman Scarborough cite military specialist Richard D. Fisher on the threat from North Korea’s new long-range missile. The missile is that which was recently reported to have been derived from the Russian SS-N-6, from which North Korea is said to have built both a land- and ship-based version.
The columnists note that although the CIA had expected the missile to be displayed in a military parade during September 2003, the display did not take place.
Mr. Fisher also notes that the ship-launch scenario is North Korea’s “simplest option,” whereby they could load the missile onto a merchant ship and launch it against an American coastal city from a comfortable range.
In the past, officials including Donald Rumsfeld have spoken of an unnamed rogue state having tested a ship-launched missile. The columnists positively identify Iran as the nation who tested a ballistic missile in the late 1990s from a merchant vessel. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Ship-Launched Threat
Sixth Anniversary of North Korean ICBM Launch
August 31, 2004 :: News
Six years ago today, in 1998, North Korea surprised the world with the launch of long range Taepo Dong I missile, which traveled over Japan and eventually fell into the Pacific. Mainstream intelligence analysts were flummoxed; since North Korea had hitherto only tested its much more primitive No Dong missile, they were not considering other possibilities. Thus providing an example of what the 9-11 Commission would later term a “failure of imagination.”
In fact, the launch was of an SLV, a space launch vehicle, designed to put into orbit a small radio broadcasting the immortal hymns of Kim Jong Il. This simply means that the missile was put on a slightly different trajectory, to go into orbit rather than deliver a warhead to another spot on the ground. That the launch failed did not diminish the importance of the test for military applications, showing that North Korea had the capability for long range missiles—even if in this case the final stage did not reach orbit.
The launch did not come as a complete surprise to all parties, however, especially the nine members of the Rumsfeld Commission, who just weeks before had completed their report warning that a rogue nation could deploy an intercontinental range missile—the Taepo Dong I classified as such, by virtue of its range—within five years of doing so, if only by strapping together smaller and fairly primitive Scud missiles. The test, in combination with the Rumsfeld Committee’s bold but unanimous report, were instrumental in reenergizing the push for missile defenses. The next year, Congress passed and Clinton signed H.R. 4—”The National Missile Defense Act of 1999”—into law, which stated that it is the policy of the United States to deploy a missile defense as soon as technologically feasible. Clinton signed the law because it was politically impossible to do otherwise. While the law stated that missile defenses should be deployed when technologically feasible, Clinton added four reasons that would guide any decision about whether or not to deploy, namely four good enough excuses to provide a basis for why he would not carry this law into execution. The same law is frequently cited as the basis for the Bush administrations beginning to deploy a limited system in Alaska, due later this year if all goes as planned. (Link)
» Rumsfeld Report text
» National Missile Defense Act of 1999 text
» More stories on: North Korea
» Missile details: Taep'o-dong 1 SLV, Taep'o-dong 1
Rumsfeld Speaks at Space and Missile Defense Conference
August 18, 2004 :: Department of Defense :: News
Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld spoke to the seventh annual Space and Missile Defense Conference, held in Huntsville, Alabama, where he spoke of the importance of missile defense and the plans for deployment in the coming months.
Among other things, Rumsfeld noted that “History has taught us that weakness is provocative,” and warned that some two dozen countries currently have ballistic missiles and other WMD programs, including North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran.
Rumsfeld noted that the United States would have a limited defense by the end of the year, but stressed the importance that it continue to evolve to match the growing capabilities of those countries, terrorists, and other extremists who threaten America.
Perhaps most importantly, however, is that Rumsfeld apparently repeated his previous observations about the threat from a ship-launched ballistic missile. Gertz and Scarborough in the August 27 edition of Inside the Ring report the following from Rumsfeld:
Mr. Rumsfeld also was asked about the danger of terrorists or rogue states attacking the United States by putting a short-range Scud-type missile on a freighter and firing it close to U.S. shores.
He said one Middle East nation already has “launched a ballistic missile from a cargo vessel.”
“They had taken a short-range, probably Scud missile, put it on a transporter-erector launcher, lowered it in, taken the vessel out into the water, peeled back the top, erected it, fired it, lowered it, covered it up. And the ship that they used was using a radar and electronic equipment that was no different than 50, 60, 100 other ships operating in the immediate area.”
Other U.S. officials have said the nation was Iran, which tested a freighter-launched missile in the Caspian Sea in the late 1990s.
“It is true that the big distinction we make between intercontinental, medium-range and shorter-range ballistic missiles doesn’t make a lot of sense if you’re going to move the missile closer to the target,” he said.
These comments repeat almost verbatim his previous report, one month after 9-11, that such a thing had occured, as well as that by Asst. Sec. of Defense Paul Wolfowitz in 2002. (Article, Link)
» Transcript of Rumsfeld remarks
» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Policy, Ship-Launched Threat, Testing - Foreign
U.S. Official: Iran Acting as Proxy to Test North Korean Missiles
August 6, 2004 :: AP :: News
An unnamed U.S. administration official was quoted by the Associated Press as stating on August 5 that North Korea has been using Iran as a proxy to circumvent a supposed self-imposed moratorium on missile testing. The comment comes days after heavy press attention to reports of North Korea’s deploying two new missile systems.
The report also repeats an earlier, similar, story from May, that Iran was supplying North Korea with testing data. (Article, Link)
» May 28, 2004: North Korean moratorium meaningless, if Iran sharing test data
» August 3, 2004: North Korea deploying two versions of new missile
» More stories on: Iran, North Korea
Jane’s: North Korea Deploying 2,500km Range Missile, Capable of Ship-Launch
August 3, 2004 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
Jane’s Defense Weekly reports that North Korea is deploying two different forms of a new missile system, with capabilities to strike both U.S military forces in Guam and Japan and also the continental United States. The new missile is believed to be based primarily upon the Russian R-27/SS-N-6 submarine launched missile, as well as some SS-N-5 technology and assistance from the Russian missile manufacturer VP Makeyev Design Bureau. The land-based mobile version of the missile has an estimated range of missile 2,500-4,000 km, and the submarine- or ship-based version some 2,500 or more.
Besides the indication of Russian proliferation, the significance of such a ship-launched missile to North Korea is the very scenario so often discussed here on Missilethreat.com: a ship-launched ballistic missile attack upon the United States. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld spoke of such a threat in October 2001, and Assistant Secretary of Defense Wolfowitz has since warned of the same. Such a prospect points to the need for a much more robust missile defense architecture, which includes space based systems. The long range midcourse interceptors to be deployed in Alaska and California would not have sufficient time to meet and destroy such a missile. A space based laser, reacting at the speed of light, is one serious alternative.
Update: August 4: The Russian Interfax news agency quotes “Admiral Eduard Baltin, ex-commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Hero of the Soviet Union,” as having “ruled out” the possibility of the transfer of Russian SS-N-6 missile technology to North Korea, and calling the reported transfers “absurd.”
Update: August 5: New York Times coverage of the story cites an unnamed official dismissing concern about the newly deployed missiles: “There is no way this can hit the mainland.” The story improperly dismisses the sea-launched version of the missile, weakly citing “doubts” that its purpose was to be launched from a freighter, and pointing out that North Korea has no submarines. Such slight of hand ignores entirely that there are two versions of the missile, one of which is designed to be launched by sea. The initial report by Jane’s Defense Weekly, cited by the New York Times, had correctly observed that “Both these new land- and sea-based systems appreciably expand the DPRK’s ballistic missile threat…The missile capable of being launched from submarines of ships is potentially the most dangerous.” (Article, Link)
» AFP summary of Jane’s report
» Globalsecurity.org description of “No Dong B”
» More stories on: North Korea, Proliferation, Russia
» Missile details: SS-N-5, SS-N-6
Kaplan on the Merits of Vulnerability, Mutually Assured Destruction
July 28, 2004 :: News
Writing for the Slate online magazine, Fred Kaplan comments on the recent installment of the first missile defense interceptor in Alaska, and argues that, despite common sense to the contrary, some defense is indeed worse than none. The subheading to Kaplan’s article is the following: “What’s the optimal number of anti-missile missiles? None.”
Such arguments for the merits of vulnerability enjoyed some measure of plausibility during the Cold War, when only the Soviet Union and China had nuclear armed ICBMs. Kaplan’s updating of the arguments, however, show their absurdity, as he argues that the deployment will only “provoke” North Korea into producing more nuclear weapons and more long range missiles. The Federation of American Scientists, long known for their opposition to all things missile defense, praises Kaplan’s argument by name.
What these arguments ignore, however, is that North Korea and Iran will continue their best efforts regardless of whether or not the United States does anything about it. If North Korea should respond to the initial deployment of ten missile interceptors with, say, 12 long range missiles, the United States should deploy an additional 10. This is an arms race we can win, and we should not be afraid to do so. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, North Korea
PM: Pakistan Purchased North Korean Missile Technology
July 18, 2004 :: News
Pakistan’s former prime minister Benazir Bhutto acknowledges that that country purchased missile technology from North Korea, reports the Asahi Shimbun newspaper. The exchange apparently too place after a visit to North Korea in December 1993. Bhutto noted the North Korea connection, but denied that Pakistan aided North Korea with nuclear technology. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: North Korea, Pakistan, Proliferation
