North Korea Linked to Destroyed Syrian Nuclear Reactor
April 24, 2008 :: New York Times :: News
Today the White House will announce that the North Koreans had been working at a Syrian nuclear reactor until it was destroyed last September in an Israeli airstrike, reports the New York Times. This discovery, based on video evidence, comes after a seven-month clandestine investigation. U.S. and Israeli senior officials believe that the strike targeted a fledgling nuclear reactor modeled after the North Korean reactor used for attaining fuel for its weapons system.
The site was destroyed by Israeli jets on September 6. After protesting, the Syrians bulldozed the site and erected a building on the area formerly holding the reactor. They have routinely denied access to international nuclear weapons inspectors.
The State Department finds the White House’s timing in declassifying this information suspicious. Some have suggested that the administration’s declassification is aimed at undermining a deal with the North Koreans that would allow it to be removed from the list of nations sponsoring terrorism.
One senior White House official has said, off the record that, “Making public the pictures is likely to inflame the North Koreans. And that’s just what opponents of this whole arrangement want, because they think the North Koreans will stalk off.” Another official claims that perhaps this new information will force North Korea to more fully divulge its projects in Syria with the disclosure of details pertaining to its nuclear activities.
The deal in question is being brokered by the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Christopher R. Hill, who is acting as the primary liaison with North Korea, and has suddenly become the latest point of contention in a seven-year battle within the Bush Administration over foreign policy as it relates to North Korea. That policy has evolved from attempting to pressure North Korea in hopes of collapsing Kim Jong-il’s government, to negotiating with North Korea along with Russia, China, South Korea and Japan—each of whom has pursued a unique strategy in solving the problem of North Korea.
Christopher Hill was charged with the task of determining a new strategy for dealing with the North Koreans more than three years ago. With dwindling support, Hill has struggled, and senior officials have reported that President Bush has overtly admonished his aides against pursuing any policy that “makes [him] look weak.” Vice President Cheney’s office has argued that Hill’s proposal would be too big a concession—in exchange for a perfunctory declaration form the North Koreans regarding its plutonium production, it would be removed from the list of nations sponsoring terrorism and therefore no longer subject to economic sanctions under the Trading With the Enemy Act. Still, the North Koreans have failed to volunteer information pertaining to its involvement with Syria and its plans to begin building arms using uranium. Hill’s deal would allow the North Koreans to continue on in relative secrecy. It would allow them to leave unexplained its purchase of uranium enrichment materials from Pakistan—materials and equipment that experts believe was obtained to help North Korea engineer another road to a nuclear bomb if it were forced to abandon its plutonium program.
Today American intelligence officials will, in a presentation to members of Congress, show videos of Koreans working among employees at a Syrian plant. Mr. Hill has already shown this footage to senior South Korean officials. Other pictures illustrate what seems to be the construction of a reactor vessel inside the very building later destroyed in the Israeli strike of September.
Officials have heretofore refused to speak about the September attack. Christopher Hill has found little support among his colleagues, including his boss, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who has sharply criticized the 1994 agreement between North Korea and the Clinton Administration for its “front loaded” rewards system for the North. Critics are saying something very similar of Mr. Hill’s proposed deal. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Israel, Syria
Israel Tests Ballistic Missile
January 17, 2008 :: Ha'aretz :: News
Israel today announced the successful test launch of a ballistic missile capable of carrying an "unconventional" warhead, presumably nuclear. The missile was launched from the Palmachim military base near Jerusalem, where some 90 Jericho II missiles are believed to be stationed, according to Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems. The identity of the missile was not released. The Israeli Defense Force's brief press release on the test only described it as a "two-stage" missile. The purpose of the test was described as "testing missile propulsion." Israel has been believed to have had for several years the Jericho II missile with a range of 1500 km, and to be developing a Jericho III missile with a possible range between 4,800 and 6,500 km. The Jericho III was at one time expected to be in service by 2008, but has also been previously reported as having three stages. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Testing - Foreign, Israel
» Missile details: Jericho 2, Jericho 3
PINR on Israel's Proposed Iron Dome Defenses
November 11, 2007 :: Analysis
The November 9 edition of Power and Interest News Report provides a detailed analysis of the Israeli Iron Dome project and its relationship with the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The Iron Dome is a planned missile defense system specifically designed to intercept short-range Katyusha and Qassam missiles. The article argues that without an effective defense against short range missiles, peace between the two sides will remain illusive.
Katyusha and Qassam rockets are easily manufactured, costing only several dollars to build. While not particularly lethal, the rockets inflict a serious toll on the Israeli public.
Katyusha rocket makes up 90 percent of Hezbollah's rocket arsenal and has a range of approximately 20 kilometers (12 miles)... During July-August 2006, Hezbollah fired approximately 4,000 Katyusha rockets into Israel, killing 51 Israelis and seriously wounding another 250. Rockets destroyed or severely damaged 2,000 homes, while between 100,000-250,000 civilians fled, at least temporarily, from the north to other parts of Israel. Qassam rockets... are less destructive than Katyushas and have a general range of only three to ten kilometers (1.8-6.2 miles), they are cheap and easy to make, making them the weapon of choice for militants launching attacks on Israel from the Gaza Strip... Qassams have had their most significant impact on the town of Sderot... One third of Sderot's children suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, according to a survey carried out last year, while around half of the population of Sderot has left the town since the rocket attacks intensified.
Militarily, as air strikes have been ineffective in stopping the rocket attacks, military leaders are left with the prospect of reoccupying the Gaza strip or other territories to halt the attacks. So long as the missile attacks continue, the likelihood of war increases and the prospects for peace diminish. Therefore, former Prime Minister and current Defense Minister Ehud Barak argues for the Iron Dome which could remove the threat of rocket attacks from the political equation as negotiations continue. However, the Iron Dome faces significant technical and economic challenges.
It will have to be able to identify the launch of a rocket, analyze the data and feed it to the intercepting missile for launch, all within 20 seconds, the flight time of a Qassam. While it may be possible to surmount the technological obstacles to achieving this, it may not be possible to do so at a reasonable cost... Each interceptor missile will cost between $30,000 and $50,000. The rockets that they will intercept, however, cost only a few dollars to make. Some analysts fear that reliance on Iron Dome may lead to a costly arms race, in which Palestinian militants and Hezbollah would have the advantage.
While the system would be costly to maintain, advocates state it would be less expensive than a prolonged war with the Palestinians and the cost of rebuilding damaged areas of the country. Additionally, if Israelis are confident in the effectiveness of their missile defense system, they may be more willing to make the territorial concessions necessary to create a Palestinian state.
The article concludes, "An anti-rocket system will have to form just one part of Israel's broader defenses against irregular warfare if it is to provide Israel with the security needed to allow it to make the territorial compromises that are probably necessary for peace."
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, Israel
Barak: Israel Missile Defense Capabilities Rising
October 9, 2007 :: News
Israel will have a shield that will protect it from "about 90 percent of Shihab to Kassam rocket attacks within a few years," Defense Minister Ehud Barak told the Knesset State Control Committee on Tuesday.
Furthermore, we are giving high priority to the production of a system involving several projects, which, within a few years, will provide protection for Israel from about 90 percent of all attempts to fire rockets at us, from Shihab missiles to Kassams," the defense minister said. "In the longer range, we will have, for many reasons, to achieve a much higher interception level.
The Iron Dome, a kinetic interception system designed to eliminate Kassam rockets, will be ready in a few years. The Iron Dome is just one of missile defense systems currently under development, along with the Arrow 2. When completed, the Iron Dome and the Arrow 2 missile defense layers will buttress the existing system which includes a series of Patriot missile batteries and Arrow missiles.
Israel is considering upgrading its current Patriot missile batteries to the PAC-3 model, and debating whether to deploy the Skyguard system, a version of what was once known as the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) missile defense which utilizes lasers to target short range missiles. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Israel
» Missile system details for: Arrow, Patriot, Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL), Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)
Israel Plans to Expand Defenses
July 23, 2007 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
Israel is preparing a new multi-layered missile defense system, reports the July 11 edition of Jane's Defence Weekly. The current backbone of Israel's missile defense is the Arrow terminal defense system. The Arrow-2, an upgrade of the original Arrow with U.S. assistance, continues under development, as is a new Arrow-3, which would have the capability to intercept missiles at a higher altitude and distance, enabling several interception attempts in case of a miss. In addition, the government may purchase the advanced PAC-3 theater missile defense system. To defend against short-range and smaller rockets from Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel is working on the "Iron Cap" system—a kinetic energy, all-weather interceptor capable of engaging multiple threats with a cheap radio-frequency seeker inside its radome. The Iron Cap could be deployed within 30 months and is also relatively cheap to produce at only one percent of the cost of a PAC-3 system. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Israel
» Missile system details for: Arrow, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
Report: Iran Warns U.S. It Has 600 Ballistic Missile Targets in Israel
July 16, 2007 :: Ha'aretz :: News
Citing diplomatic sources, the Qatari daily Al Watan reports that Iran has targeted with missiles some 600 targets in Israel should the U.S. attack the Islamic Republic. Iran also warned that should the U.S. or Israel attack Syria, Iran would retaliate. Recently, the London-based Guardian newspaper has reported the U.S. is carefully examining a possible strike against Iran, with Vice President Dick Cheney strong supporting the move while Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have voiced their opposition. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, Israel
Sieff on Israel's New Dilemma
December 10, 2006 :: UPI :: Analysis
Israel desperately needs a short-range anti-rocket defense system, as demonstrated by Hezbollah's bombardment of northern Israel in July-August 2006, writes Martin Sieff in the UPI. Yet Israel has recognized significant development problems with its two possible solutions: Northrop Grumman's Skyguard, a high-energy chemical laser system; and Lockheed Martin's Sky Shield, a conventional rapid-fire cannon. Skyguard, developed in conjunction with the U.S. Army and the Israeli Defense Forces, was expected to be the IDF's first choice. The system is based on technology developed for the highly successful Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL). Yet according to All Headline News, Israel has suspended its participation in the project. "The point of contention appears to an inability to increased Skyguard's range to 6 miles [9.6 km]," AHN reported. "With its current range of only 1.8 miles [2.9 km], deploying Skyguard along Israel's entire northern border would be prohibitively expensive." The second option, Sky Shield, successfully destroyed a replica of Palestinian-made Qassam rocket in a recent lab test, according to the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz. But since the rocket was not in flight, the system has not yet proven itself capable of intercepting incoming Qassams. Much more development may be needed. "It is far too early to write off either system, especially given the relatively meager resources that have so far been allocated to developing either of them," Sieff notes. "But time is not on the Israelis' side, and they may have to choose fast." (Article, Link)
» More stories on: High Energy Defenses, Israel, Analysis
Jerusalem Post: Syria and Iran Smuggling Long-Range Missiles to Hezbollah
December 3, 2006 :: Jerusalem Post :: News
Syria and Iran have smuggled “truckloads” of long-range missiles into Lebanon over the past four months, reports Yaakov Katz in The Jerusalem Post. During the Lebanon war from July to August 2006, the Israeli Defense Force destroyed most of Hezbollah’s long-range missile arsenal, including the Iranian-made Fajr and Zelzal missiles. But according to Israeli military intelligence, Hezbollah has since received weapon convoys carrying long-range missiles, as well as short-range and anti-tank missiles. Hezbollah has stored these weapons in its extensive system of underground tunnels and bunkers in southern Lebanon, despite the presence of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and the Lebanese Armed Forces south of the Litani River. According to The Jerusalem Post, Israeli military intelligence believes that “sooner or later” Hezbollah will resume military operations against Israel in the form of rocket and mortar attacks. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Israel, Iran, Syria, Proliferation, Terrorism
» Missile details: Zelzal-1/2/3
Rubin: Iran “Major Missile Power” in Region
November 30, 2006 :: UPI :: Analysis
Uzi Rubin, former head of Israel’s missile defense program, argues in a new study published by the Institute for National Security Studies that Iran is now “the major missile power” in the Middle East. “No other country in the world … comes close to Iran in the number and variety of ballistic missiles in development or already deployed,” Rubin writes. He lists Iran’s assets: Shahab-3 medium-range missiles, an “an indispensable complement to [Iran’s] nuclear ambitions”; Scud B and Scud C short-range missiles, manufactured “in considerable quantities”; Zelzal short-range missiles, which can target troop concentrations; the Raad, an advanced version of the Chinese Silkworm anti-ship cruise missile; and an assortment of smaller anti-tank missiles. “Every major city and military installation between the western shores of Turkey and the eastern border of Pakistan and between the Black Sea in the north and the southern narrows of the Red Sea are within range,” he writes. Moreover, Iran can now hit any point in the Middle East from well-protected, fixed silos “survivable against preemption.” He warns: “There should be no doubt that in case of conflict, Iran will launch Shahab-3 missiles regardless of their flight test record, and that some of them will reach their destinations.” Rubin adds that Iran is also developing satellites, and that any suitably modified space launch vehicle can serve as an intercontinental ballistic missile. At the rate they are going, “Iranian missiles will dominate the entire continent of Europe by the end of this decade,” he concludes. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Israel, Iran, Analysis
» Missile details: Shahab-6, Scud variant, Scud B/C/D variants, Zelzal-1/2/3
Israel Developing “Magen Kassum” Rocket Interceptor
October 7, 2006 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
Israel Military Industries (IMI) is developing a new defense system against short- and long-range rockets, reports the October 11 edition of Jane’s Defence Weekly. The new system, dubbed Magen Kassum (Magic Shield), will consist of a “light rocket” that, unlike other missile defense systems, will carry no homing device or radar. According to an IMI spokesman, “after receiving data from a variety of available sensors, the rocket will be launched to an optimal interception point against the incoming threat … and will be detonated in proximity to the incoming rocket.” Based on the 160 mm Accurate Light Artillery Rocket (AccuLAR), the Magen Kassum is designed to deal with a broad range of rocket threats, from the Palestinian Qassam, with a range from 9 km, to the Iranian Zelzal, with a range of 200 km. The concept has been presented to Israel’s Ministry of Defence, which is seeking solutions to the growing threat of rockets from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. (Link)
» More stories on: Israel, Allies
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