MDA Considers Caucasus for Possible X-Band Radar Site
July 28, 2006 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
The U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has identified the Caucasus region as a possible location for the deployment of a mobile X-band radar, reports Jane’s Defence Weekly in the August 2 issue. Rick Lehner, an MDA spokesman, recently told Jane’s that the region would be a “good location for a small X-band radar to provide tracking and discrimination of missiles launched from Iran.” Lehner’s comments followed the release of an MDA fact sheet for Block 2008 development that referred to an unnamed country in the Caucasus as a potential site for transportable sensors. The disclosure has prompted speculation as to whether MDA is considering Georgia, which has extensive military cooperation with the U.S., or Azerbaijan, which shares a border with Iran and has reportedly received U.S. funds for the construction of two radar installations. (Link)
» More stories on: Former Soviet Republics, Iran, Detection and Tracking
LA Times: North Korea-Iran Ties Strengthening
July 27, 2006 :: LA Times :: News
The Los Angeles Times today published a report on the growing ties between North Korea and Iran, including the possible sale of ballistic missiles to Tehran. The report quotes Israeli intelligence sources, who believe that the Islamic Republic recently bought 18 intermediate-range missiles from Pyongyang. In April 2006, Israeli intelligence chief Amos Yadlin stated that Israel had evidence that the sale had taken place, and that the 18 missiles in question were based on the Russian SS-N-6 submarine-launched ballistic missile. According to Yadlin, the North Korean variant has a range of 2,500 km, which would allow Iran to attack Israel and much of southern Europe. The Los Angeles Times also quotes Uzi Rubin, former head of the Israeli missile defense program, who recently stated that Iran is also interested in North Korea’s long-range Taep’o-dong 2 ballistic missile, which would greatly extend its striking power.
According to the Times, the North Korea-Iran nexus dates back to the 1980s when Pyongyang sold missiles and launchers to Tehran for use in the Iran-Iraq War. The two nations later collaborated on the development of Iran’s Shahab missiles, which are based on the North Korean No-dong. In recent years, satellites have spotted Iranian cargo planes at Pyongyang’s Sunan Airport, and U.S. intelligence now believes that Iran conducted a missile test on North Korea’s behalf on at least one occasion. Last week, reports emerged that Iranian observers had been on hand to witness North Korea’s July 4 test launch of seven long- and short-range missiles, including the Taep’o-dong 2. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, Israel, North Korea, Proliferation
» Missile details: SS-N-17, Tien Ma 1
Gaffney: Missiles Abroad Should Concentrate the American Mind
July 25, 2006 :: Washington Times :: Analysis
The development, deployment, and proliferation of ballistic missile technology abroad requires a “concentration” of American minds and a concerted effort to develop robust missile defenses, writes Frank J. Gaffney Jr., president of the Center for Security Policy, in The Washington Times. Gaffney catalogues the missile threats that have grown in recent years: North Korea’s readiness to sell missile technology to willing buyers; Pakistan’s intention to build as many as 40 to 50 nuclear warheads per year; Iran’s continued development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology; China’s ever increasing missile arsenal; and Russia’s development of newer intercontinental ballistic missiles possibly with maneuverable re-entry vehicles.
Gaffney makes particular note of the fact that Iran has test launched a short-range Scud missile off of a ship, which would allow it to attack the U.S. without developing an intercontinental ballistic missile. He also points out that Iran has tested its medium-range Shahab-3 ballistic missile in a manner that appears designed to detonate a nuclear weapon in space. Such a detonation above the U.S. would result in an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) capable of wiping out electrical systems and crippling the U.S. infrastructure and economy.
Gaffney suggests that the Bush administration carefully examine the newly released report by the Independent Working Group, entitled Missile Defense, the Space Relationship and the Twenty-First Century, which lays out a roadmap for the development and deployment of a robust, layered, and effective U.S. missile defense shield. The report calls for the deployment of space-based defenses and the expansion of sea-based defenses, and describes ways in which the necessary technical, public, and political support can be obtained and sustained. (Article, Link)
» Read the 2007 report: The Independent Working Group on Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century (8 MB)
» More stories on: Analysis, Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Weapons, Iran, Ship-Launched Threat
» Missile details: Scud B/C/D variants, Shahab-6
Israel-Lebanon Conflict Fueled by Iran
July 21, 2006 :: Analysis
The ongoing conflict in Israel and Lebanon demonstrates the widespread character of the war on terrorism, the expanding regional influence of Iran, and, more specifically, the Islamic Republic’s complete willingness to proliferate ballistic and cruise missile technology to terrorist entities it considers to be political and military allies.
Over the past week, Western intelligence officials and experts have concluded that the Iran-sponsored Lebanese terrorist organization, Hezbollah, has stockpiled enough firepower to sustain a protracted fight against the Jewish state that threatens all of northern Israel and possibly much further. Hezbollah (“The Party of God” in Arabic) is a Shiite organization that emerged during the Lebanese civil war in the early 1980s. It is the principal suspect for the 1983 suicide bombings of the U.S. embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut. Since the 1990s, Hezbollah has built up its forces in southern Lebanon with the help of Iran, and has been intermittently firing Katyusha rockets into northern Israel. The cheap, unguided, low-flying projectiles have a range of approximately 20 km and are capable of causing considerable damage when launched into dense civilian populations. Sources indicate that many of these rockets are manufactured in Iran. Over the past week, Hezbollah guerrillas have fired hundreds of Katyusha rockets into dozens of towns and cities across northern Israel, killing and wounding civilians in the heaviest bombardment in over a decade. Hezbollah is believed to have tens of thousands of Katyushas in its arsenal.
More worrisome than the unsophisticated Katyusha rockets are the larger, more powerful ballistic and cruise missiles that Hezbollah has obtained through Iran. Israeli intelligence believes that Hezbollah possesses hundreds of Iranian-made Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 short-range ballistic missiles, which have ranges of 40 and 75 km respectfully and allow the terrorist organization to strike deep inside Israel. On July 14, an Israeli air strike destroyed at least one Iranian-made Zelzal-2 short-range ballistic missile, according to the AP. According to officials from the Israeli Defense Force, an Israeli aircraft targeted a truck carrying an unknown number of Zelzal-2 missiles, and the force of the blast sent at least one missile flying into the air. The Zelzal-2 (“earthquake” in Farsi) is believed to have a range of anywhere from 120 to 400 km, and would be capable of striking Tel Aviv if launched successfully.
Hezbollah has also demonstrated that it possesses Iranian copies of Chinese cruise missiles. On July 14, Hezbollah guerrillas attacked Israel’s INS Hanit Eilat-class missile corvette with an Iranian-made Noor (Tondar) radar-guided anti-ship cruise missile, according to Jane’s Defense Weekly. The Noor is an Iranian copy of the Chinese C-802 (CSS-N-8), reported to have a range of approximately 200 km. Hezbollah guerrillas fired the missile from the Lebanese shore at the Hanit from a range of 16 km, which prevented the Israelis from activating the ship’s missile defense systems. A second Noor, also aimed at the Hanit, missed and instead hit a Cambodian merchant ship 60 km away, which sank although its crew members were rescued. Hezbollah is believed to possess dozens of Noor cruise missiles.
Finally, Iran’s well-trained Revolutionary Guard is believed to be providing on-the-ground military advisers to Hezbollah with some level of coordination with Syria, according to Anthony Cordesman, the respected Middle East expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, as well as several U.S. officials. If this report is accurate, it means that the Islamic Republic has expanded well beyond its traditional role of financier, proliferator, and spiritual ally, and could in fact be the driving political and military force behind Hezbollah’s recent and future actions. (Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, Iran, Israel, Proliferation, Terrorism
» Missile details: Zelzal-1/2/3
Iranian Observers Present at Recent North Korean Missile Tests
July 20, 2006 :: Reuters :: News
Iranian observers were present at all of the seven recent missile tests by North Korea, according to the State Department. Speaking before a U.S. Senate hearing, Assistant Secretary of State Chris Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator with Pyongyang, confirmed that Iranian representatives had observed all seven tests, which included the launch of a Taep’o-dong 2 long-range ballistic missile, and six shorter-range No-dong and Scud missiles.
In recent weeks, U.S. officials have expressed serious concerns that cash-strapped Pyongyang has been attempting to sell its ballistic missiles and possibly nuclear material. “Our understanding is that North Korea has had a number of commercial relations in the Middle East with respect to missiles,” Hill said. The worry is that Pyongyang will proliferate its technology to rogue nations such as Iran, or transnational Islamic terrorist organizations. Hill and Senator George Allen (R-VA) noted that North Korea’s ties with Iran are of even greater concern now, as the Islamic militant group Hezbollah, backed by Iran, fires its Iranian-made rockets and cruise missiles at Israel. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Proliferation
» Missile details: No-dong 1, Tien Ma 1
Shapiro: Missile Defense Wanted
July 6, 2006 :: Analysis
Ben Shapiro, a 2006 Publius Fellow at the Claremont Institute, discusses the urgent need for missile defenses on FamilySecurityMatters.org. Without an effective missile defense system, notes Shapiro, the U.S. risks defeat in the War on Terror and in future confrontations with rogue nations. Since terrorist groups must have the aid of state sponsors in order to succeed in their operations, the U.S. and its allies must have the capability to destroy these state sponsors in order to successfully prosecute the War on Terror. However, the absence of an effective U.S. missile defense system provides rogue nations with a way to deter such attacks. Shapiro lays out a plausible and troubling scenario:
Imagine, for example, that Iran worked with al-Qaeda to station a ballistic missile off the coast of California. Imagine also that Iran, which is currently racing to update its missile technology to take advantage of American shortcomings, develops missiles capable of reaching the United States directly. Al-Qaeda launches its ballistic missile over Los Angeles, and the city is destroyed. America, recognizing Iranian sponsorship, seeks to retaliate. Iran, however, explains calmly that if any attempt at regime change is made, it will launch its missiles on Israel and America. Would a president knowingly sacrifice millions of additional lives to avenge the millions lost in Los Angeles?
This is international blackmail, and it is promoted by American vulnerability. There is a reason that Kim Jong Il spent so much time and effort developing both nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology capable of carrying those weapons to America’s shores. Kim Jong Il, like most of America’s enemies, sees that he can prevent aggressive American action by gaining a deterrent. The more vulnerable we are to ballistic missile threat, the more our enemies will exploit the vulnerability—and less likely we are to do anything about it.
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, Iran, North Korea, Terrorism
Polish Analyst: Russia May Send S-300 Missiles to Iran via Belarus
June 7, 2006 :: BBC Worldwide Monitoring :: Analysis
Russia may export S-300 air/missile defense interceptors to Iran via Belarus, writes Polish analyst Piotr Koscinski on the Rzeczpospolita newspaper website. Koscinski cites the Russian publication Vzglyad, which published an article in April 2006 suggesting that Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenka himself would be the go-between for the transaction. The move would allow Russia to categorically deny the sale of these weapons to Iran, and maintain its image within the G-8 and on the world stage. According to Jane’s Intelligence Digest, an Iranian military delegation visited Minsk in January 2006, and negotiations surrounding the transfer of S-300 systems took place. According to Aleksandr Rakhimchyk, deputy director of the Moscow-based Institute of Military and Political Analysis, if Iran receives Russian-made S-300 systems, the U.S. would not be able to carry out a military operation against the Islamic Republic “without suffering significant losses.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, Former Soviet Republics, Iran, Proliferation, Russia
» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant)
Iran Fires Shahab-3 Missile
May 24, 2006 :: News
Iran test launched a Shahab-3 intermediate-range ballistic missile on Tuesday night. The launch took place just hours before U.S. President George W. Bush met with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to discuss the Iranian threat.
Reports describe the test as only “partly successful,” and most likely did not indicate an advance in the missile’s capabilities. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: Shahab-6
Hackett on Missile Defense Policy and Iran
April 28, 2006 :: Washington Times :: Analysis
Writing for The Washington Times, James T. Hackett offers a sobering assessment of the ballistic missile threat from Iran. The Islamic Republic is currently believed to have between 50 and 100 operational Shahab-3s. It produces one additional Shahab per month, with production reportedly increasing. Modifications could extend the missile’ range to 2,000 miles, which would reach Berlin. Iran may also be buying North Korea’s longer-range Taepodong-2. With a second stage on top, that missile could reach the U.S. East Coast. Hackett argues that diplomacy is the prudent course for now, but the U.S. should simultaneously improve its missile defenses. The Pentagon should help Israel upgrade its Arrow interceptors, deploy sea-based missile defense in the Persian Gulf, build the planned missile defense site in Europe, and develop of boost-phase defenses that can stop missile of any range or capability. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, Iran
» Missile details: Shahab-6
Rubin Interview on Iranian Capabilities
April 28, 2006 :: News
IranWatch.org recently interviewed Uzi Rubin, former head of Israel’s Arrow missile defense program. Rubin described Iran’s latest effort to field a fleet of nuclear capable ballistic missiles, assessed the threat that Iran’s missiles present to Israel and U.S. forces, and evaluated the ability of missile defenses to block an Iranian attack. He noted that a robust combination of Israeli and U.S. defenses could be “quite effective” against the Iranian threat. For instance, Israel’s Arrow program, which was specifically designed to defend against the Shahab-3, was proven successful in multiple tests against simulated Shabab-3s. Likewise, the U.S. is deploying Standard Missile-3 interceptors on Aegis-equipped warships, which have also been proven successful in recent tests. The U.S. also operates Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptors, which were battle-tested during the 2003 Iraq War and shot down all targets engaged. However, Rubin noted that “we never have enough” interceptors, and that Israel and the U.S. remain vulnerable should Iran choose to launch a large-scale attack. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Allies, Iran, Israel
» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD
