Obering to Recommend U.S. European Site Within “Months”
August 15, 2006 :: AFP :: News
Lieutenant General Henry “Trey” Obering, director of the Missile Defense Agency, announced today that he expects to make his recommendation within months for the location of a U.S. missile defense site in Europe. Speaking in Huntsville, Alabama, Obering emphasized that the site would protect the U.S. and Europe against the threat of a long-range missile attack from Iran. He added that other factors would also be considered, such as soil conditions for missile silos, existing infrastructure to support the installations, and possible future sites for X-band radars. Obering did not specify exactly when he planned to make his recommendation, but noted that MDA planned to deploy 10 interceptor missiles in Europe by 2011. (Article, Link)
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Czech Public Debates U.S. Missile Defense Site
August 14, 2006 :: BBC Worldwide Monitoring :: News
A proposed U.S. missile defense base in the Czech Republic has fueled a nationwide debate in that country, reports the Czech news agency CTK. The Civic Democrats, who won the recent general elections, generally support the U.S. base; the Social Democrats and the Communists generally oppose it. In recent weeks, the opposition has become loud and vociferous, garnering leadership from the “No to Bases” group and organization from the ranks of the Young Communists. (Article, Link)
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Baluyevsky Criticizes U.S. Defensive Posture
August 1, 2006 :: RIA-Novosti :: News
General Yuri Baluyevsky, Russia’s Chief of Staff and First Deputy Defense Minister, published a lengthy and important article in the Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kurier on July 26 criticizing steps by the U.S. to move toward a more defensive posture. Balueyvsky criticizes in particular recent discussions about deploying missile defense assets in Eastern Europe. The Chief of Staff accuses Washington of attempting to achieve “absolute supremacy in the military sphere” and condemns its “brute force in dealing with complicated international issues.” Baluyevsky notes that while the U.S. might appear to be deploying missile defenses to protect against strikes from Iran and North Korea, its real enemies are Russia and China, against whom the systems are allegedly designed to defend.
Baluyevsky writes that “the world is essentially back to square one—that latter being the situation of America’s nuclear monopoly of the 1940’s.” The U.S. plan to deploy interceptor missiles and early warning radars in Central and Eastern Europe would “disrupt the existing Russian-American parity in strategic delivery means.” He lists three reasons for Russia’s concern:
First, silos of the ballistic missile defense system may be easily converted for ICBMs that will reach targets in European Russia wherever they are. Effective control over the use of silos is a sheer impossibility. As a matter of fact, any such control is going to be impossible even for central governments of the countries where the silos will be built.
Second, deployment of active components of the American national ballistic missile defense system in European countries may be interpreted as an attempt on the part of the U.S. to leave Europe facing the music i.e. consequences of a conflict where ballistic missiles were used. Europe will essentially become an advanced line of defense of US territory. From the military standpoint, the logic is impeccable—bring the troops (and therefore the hostilities) as close as possible to the positions of the potential enemy and set up several more lines of defense. The world nowadays is so complicated and interdependent, however, it is so exposed to terrorism as to make these advanced outposts or whatever you might want to call them the prime targets for terrorist attacks. Russia cannot be blasé about it because it itself is a part of Europe.
Third, intercept of ballistic missiles carrying weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, germ, chemical) will cause ecological catastrophes in the European countries above whose territories the ICBMs will be killed. Fragments of the missiles and killer missiles may even fall on the territories of neutral countries (or at least the regions that are not involved in the conflict under way). Russia is particularly concerned by vulnerability of the Kaliningrad region to this threat.
Baluyevsky adds, menacingly, that such defensive deployments would “compel Moscow to revise its approach to reduction of these weapons.” He warns that Russia will be ready with “the necessary academic and technological solutions that will at least minimize negative consequences of these actions on Washington’s part.” He reminds his readers that Russia has tested new strategic arms capable of piercing the existing U.S. missile defense systems as well as those other countries may come up with in the near future, a reference to the Topol-M (SS-27) intercontinental ballistic missile.
The audience of this carefully crafted piece would seem to be less Baluyevsky’s fellow Russians, and more Americans and Europeans. Baluyevsky seemingly believes that Americans can be intimidated with cheap threats, and even more that Europeans, in particular the Poles and Czechs with whom missile defense talks continue, can be manipulated to remain themselves defenseless against not only threats from rogue states such as Iran, but also Russia itself.
The complete text from Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kurier: (More »»»)
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» Missile details: SS-N-6
Britain Backs Off from Replacing Trident Fleet
July 27, 2006 :: The Guardian :: News
The British government indicated on Wednesday, July 26, that it will maintain its existing fleet of Trident submarines rather than invest in a new nuclear missile system. The remarks were in response to a report by the Commons defense committee which chastised the government for not explaining “the purpose and continuing relevance of nuclear deterrence.” The government replied that it “would be possible” to continue operating the existing submarines beyond the original timescale. The submarines were designed to last approximately 25 years, which means they would start being withdrawn from service late in the next decade. The government said yesterday that the vessels could be kept on until the mid-2020s, “albeit with gradually increasing cost and some increasing risk of reduced availability.” The alternative would be to replace the Trident missile system and four submarines, which could cost as much as £25 billion. (Article, Link)
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» Missile details: Trident C-4
Coyle Takes Aim at Brilliant Pebbles
July 26, 2006 :: UPI :: Analysis
Philip Coyle, senior advisor at the Center for Defense Information, was recently quoted in the UPI on the issue of space-based missile defenses and in particular, the Brilliant Pebbles defense system. “The idea was that a small satellite with good brain [sic] that would see enemy missiles and dash off after it, hit it and knock it down,” he said, but noted that such a concept would have required numerous satellites, perhaps as many as 1,000 to be effective. “You can’t have one interceptor parked over North Korea,” he argued. “You need another to take its place.” Coyle also questioned the monetary feasibility of the program. “It would be, by all measures, very expensive. And it’s still problematic as to whether it would work. They’ve been projecting [costs] for at least 20 years and it doesn’t seem to happen.”
Would Brilliant Pebbles work? Coyle does not mention that Brilliant Pebbles had successfully completed its simulation stage and was ready to move to the proof-of-concept, prototype, and performance testing stages when it was effectively starved of funding as the Clinton administration came to power. Nor does he mention that in 1994 NASA launched a deep-space probe mission known as “Clementine,” constructed with first-generation Brilliant Pebbles hardware. The mission, which cost $80 million, effectively “space-qualified” Brilliant Pebbles technology, even though the missile defense program had already been eliminated.
Would Brilliant Pebbles be too expensive? The newly released report by the Independent Working Group entitled Missile Defense, the Space Relationship and the Twenty-First Century—the report cited by the UPI piece—puts the total cost of a 1,000-satellite constellation of Brilliant Pebbles at $16 billion, based on the fully approved Defense Acquisition Board plan from 1991. The figure includes the costs of developing, testing, deploying, and operating Brilliant Pebbles over a 20-year period using a low-to-moderate risk, event-driven acquisition schedule. Many would agree that $16 billion dollars is a small price to pay for the protection of the U.S. and its allies from ballistic missile attack and nuclear devastation. (Article, Link)
» Read the 2007 report: The Independent Working Group on Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century (8 MB)
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» Missile system details for: Brilliant Pebbles
MDA Officials Complete Visit to Czech Republic, Possible Decision in August
July 26, 2006 :: News
U.S. experts from the Missile Defense Agency have completed their inspection of three military sites in the Czech Republic that could host a possible U.S. missile defense site, reports the Czech News Agency (CTK). According to Jan Pejsek, a Czech Defense Ministry spokesman, the U.S. experts concluded that all three locations—Libava in North Moravia, Brdy in Central Bohemia, and Boletice in South Bohemia—would be suitable for the deployment of U.S. missile defense assets. The team spent one week examining the three sites, making note of the existing infrastructure, transportation and communication options, and geological and water conditions. Defense Minister Karel Kuehnl told CTK that the results of the U.S. visit could be released at the end of August. If MDA decides that it wants to establish a base in the Czech Republic, the Czech government and parliament would first have to approve the construction of the base. (Article, Link)
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Japan Scheduled to Deploy Six Aegis Ships by 2008
July 23, 2006 :: Kyodo :: News
Japan plans to deploy a total of six Aegis-quipped warships by the spring of 2008, reports Kyodo. Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force has already deployed four Aegis destroyers, the Kongou and Choukai, both based in Sasebo, the Myoukou in Maizuru, Kyoto Prefecture, and the Kirishima in Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture. A fifth warship, the Atago, is to be commissioned next spring and deployed at Maizuru. A sixth Aegis destroyer is under construction in Nagasaki, and will be deployed at Sasebo after its completion in the spring of 2008. Five of the six Aegis warships will be deployed along the Sea of Japan to provide a defensive shield against the threat of ballistic missile attack from North Korea. All of Japan’s Aegis warships are currently equipped with SM-2 interceptors, although the MSDF is planning to upgrade them to SM-3 interceptors, capable of hitting ballistic missiles at a far higher altitude. (Article, Link)
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» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Japanese Ballistic Missile Defense
U.S. and Italy to Sign Missile Defense Agreement
July 20, 2006 :: Inside Defense :: News
The U.S. and Italy are expected to sign a missile defense cooperation agreement by early fall, reports Inside Missile Defense. According to a Pentagon official, the agreement would be “similar to [missile defense] framework agreements with other partners.” For instance, the U.S.-British “Framework Memorandum of Understanding” on missile defense, signed in 2003, facilitates bilateral information exchanges on missile defense matters, establishes a management structure to oversee cooperative work, and prepares the way for opportunities for British companies to participate in the program. The U.S. has similar agreements with Japan, Australia, and Denmark. (Article, Link)
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Taiwan Test Launches PAC-2 Interceptors, Destroys Target Missile
July 20, 2006 :: AFP :: News
Taiwan launched two Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) interceptors as part of its largest-ever, live-fire military exercise. The AFP reports that the U.S.-made Patriots were fired from mobile launchers on a beach off the northeastern city of Ilan, and successfully shot down an incoming target missile launched some 30 km (18 miles) away. The military exercises, codenamed Han-Kuang 22, simulated a Chinese invasion and also included fighter jets and ground troops. “This is the first time Patriot missiles were launched before the eyes of the public … to show our determination to safeguard Taiwan,” said President Chen Shui-bian afterwards. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Allies, Taiwan, Testing - Foreign
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
U.S. BMD Delegation Arrives in Czech Republic, Russia Denounces
July 19, 2006 :: AFP :: News
A delegation of about 20 experts from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency have arrived in the Czech Republic to discuss the possible creation of a strategic missile defense site, reports the AFP. The delegation will visit at least three sites to examine whether they are suitable for the deployment of U.S. assets, including military zones at Jince, southwest of the capital Prague; Bolatice, in the southwest; and Libava, in the east of the country. According to Jan Pejsek, a spokesman for the Czech Defense Ministry, the visit is “the last stage in expert negotiations” before any political discussions on the matter. In recent days, the Czech media has said that Washington wants a final decision from Prague about the installation between now and the end of September. Poland and Hungary as also being considered as possible sites.
In a harsh denunciation of the U.S. visit, Colonel-General Nikolai Yesin, the former chief of staff of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, stated that Russia would be forced to respond if the U.S. were to deploy missile defense assets in Central Europe. As quoted by Interfax, Yesin vowed that Russia would “take appropriate countermeasures, and neutralize these systems in order to preserve its nuclear missile deterrence potential.” He added that he did believe the assertions of U.S. officials that the proposed BMD system would be deployed to defend against Iranian ICBMs. (Article, Link)
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