New CIA Report on North Korea: “At Least 8” Nuclear Weapons
April 28, 2004 :: Washington Post :: News
An upcoming intelligence report by the CIA will substantially up estimates of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal upwards, – from “possibly two” nuclear weapons to at least eight, reports the Washington Post.
The report will also likely reflect a growing intelligence consensus that a distinct North Korean uranium-enrichment program will be operational by 2007 that will be capable of producing material for an additional six weapons per year. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons
Bolton: Russia, China, Iran Violating Non-Proliferation Treaty
April 27, 2004 :: News
Speaking to the annual meeting of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty at the United Nations, Undersecretary of State John Bolton warned of a “crisis of noncompliance” by Russia, China, and Iran. Addressing the meeting of NPT signatories, he said that
The time for business as usual is over. An irresponsible handful of nations not living up to their treaty commitments are undermining the NPT’s mission. Without full compliance by all NPT members, confidence in the NPT as a nonproliferation instrument erodes.
Bolton emphasized the danger posed from Iran’s own nuclear weapon’s program, which the country continues to disavow: “It is clear that the primary role of Iran’s ‘nuclear power’ program is to serve as a cover and a pretext for the import of nuclear technology and expertise that can be used to support nuclear weapons development…Iran is lying.” “If we permit Iran’s deception to go on much longer, it will be too late,” Bolton said; “Iran will have nuclear weapons.”
Russia has played a key role in aiding in the production of Iran’s nuclear “energy” programs.
Last week, Bush said that the development of a nuclear weapon by Iran would be “intolerable.” (Article, Link)
» Bolton: Iran is lying
» More stories on: Iran, Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation
Kahn Claims to Have Seen North Korean Nuclear Weapons
April 12, 2004 :: New York Times :: News
Abdul Kahn, widely known as the “father of the Pakistani Bomb” who spearheaded that country’s nuclear program and the proliferation of nuclear technology around the world, has now claimed to have seen and inspected three nuclear devices during a visit to North Korea to aid in their nuclear program, according to the New York Times. The report would be the first such verification by a foreigner of North Korea’s long touted possession of such weapons.
The story has the potential to support the exoneration of Pakistan as a sort of willing partner in the war on nuclear and missile proliferation. Khan and Pakistan, like Qaddafi and Libya, might seem to have fully repented and become an reliable informant or ally for the United States. But that which led to Pakistan-Korth Korea nuclear cooperation and which would prompt North Korea to trust Kahn with an inspection in the first place should be the ground for continued suspicion of both now.
Although Kahn may well have ulterior motives to bolster North Korea’s nuclear threat to the West, that North Korea already has had for some time some nuclear weapons is quite plausible. That it would, however, should serve as a reminder of the failure of the 1994 Accord with North Korea negotiated by the Clinton administration—as well as our previous ill-placed trust in the Pakistani government, which despite its fervent denials almost certainly had to be apartied to such high level transfers of technology. The lesson of the failed policy of appeasement with both these countries should perhaps inform the current negotiations as well. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan, Proliferation
Al Qaeda’s Ballistic Missile and WMD Plans
March 22, 2004 :: AFPC :: News
Pakistan’s Khabrain newspaper of March 12 claims that Al-Qaeda has for the past year been preparing chemical- and nuclear-armed ballistic missiles somewhere within Afghanistan for use aganist the United States, as noted by the American Foreign Policy Council. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation, Terrorism
China Resisted Inquiry Into Their Aid of Pakistan’s Nuclear Program
March 5, 2004 :: National Security Archive :: News
The National Security Archive project at George Washington University has documented a number of previously classified documents which indicate that China was permitted to rebuff inquiries by the United States, over the course of three presidencies, into the nature of the Chinese assistance of Pakistan with their nuclear program.
The documents illustrating China’s refusal only confirm, however, what has been obvious for some time, that China aided Pakistan with their nuclear program in order to permit Pakistan to counterbalance India, which borders China and is their geopolitical rival. At another level, however, they serve as a reminder that the real roots of proliferation stem not from individuals working alone, such as A. Q. Kahn, but from regimes themselves—and not primarily “rogue states” but most especially from the major rivals and threats to America, Russia and China. The major threats, in other words, are not so “asymmetrical,” but rather “strategic.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan
Russia to Develop New Strategic Weapon Systems
February 18, 2004 :: LA Times :: News
In the midst of extensive strategic nuclear war exercises, President Putin today announced to reporters that Russia would be getting new strategic weapons, and would be upgrading its missile defense system, plans for which he said have been in the making for over a dozen years. Putin’s comments come after he watched the launch of a military satellite at the Plesetsk cosmodrome—-the purpose of which is to simulate launching satellites during a nuclear war to replace those lost in the conflict.
The Los Angeles Times’ wording to describe Russia’s “possible effort to develop a Russian missile defense system” is deceptive, of course. Russia has maintained the Soviet-era missile defense system, which has now been in place for decades around Moscow. Russia will likely be advancing and exapanding its already deployed systems, as they have continued to do over the years.
As for Russia’s new offensive strategic weapons, Putin did not elaborate, but said that they would be “capable to hit targets deep inside continents at hypersonic speed and change the altitude and direction of their flight,” according to the Russian Interfax news agency. Although Putin claimed that these efforts were not aimed at the U.S., one may be reasonably sure this is not the case. The U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty and the plans to deploy a limited missile defense system this year make it more than probable that the U.S. is at least among the new threats Putin spoke of the need to counter. Such weapons, likely the reentry vehicles for nuclear warheads, which are able to “change the altitude and direction of their flight” by means of things such as “penetration aids,” are primarily of interest only to overcome missile defenses—such as the hit-to-kill defenses the U.S. will be deploying in 2004. Currently, Putin noted, “No country in the world has such kind of systems.”
Such a “maneuverable warhead” would be capable of changing directions during reentry to confuse terminal phase defenses. Of course, the possible merits of such technology should be seen as another reason to pursue boost-phase defense, during the missile’s vulnerable ascent period, before any countermeasures can be deployed. Aviation Week & Space Technology reported on Monday that that Russia had conducted a second successful test of a new warhead for the advanced SS-27 ICBM, which is said to be powered by a supersonic combustion ramjet.
The Los Angeles Times quotes Arms Control Association Executive Director Daryl Kimball, saying that Putin’s announcement signals a Russian intent to continue to engage in a post-Cold War arms race with the United States. “This illustrates that the U.S. and Russia both continue to develop ever more modern and deadly ballistic missile systems, and the Cold War continues, despite the friendly words from Putin.” Such an assessment points to the strategic clarity which must be required as the United States begins to deploy a limited missile defense system this year. Russia is continuing to test and modernize its own nuclear forces, and are willing to pursue both offensive and defensive measures. With this in mind, the U.S. must not only boldly deploy those limited systems slated for this year, but be prepared to meet and match the threat from wherever it comes: not only from rogue nations, but from China and Russia as well. The Bush administration has outlined plans by which the 2004 system will “evolve.” It is to these threats that evolution must be directed. (Article, Link)
» Xinhau on Putin announcement
» Pravda: Putin means to pursue “Star Wars”
» More stories on: Maneuverable Warheads, Nuclear Weapons, Russia, Russian Missile Defenses
Russia Begins Nuclear War Exercise; Rivals 1982 “Seven Hour Nuclear War”
February 11, 2004 :: AP :: News
Russia has begun the first stages of a massive “all-out nuclear war” exercise, according to reports from several Russian newspapers. The largest in over two decades, the war games rival the “seven hour nuclear war” maneuvers by the Soviet Union in 1982. The tests include test firings of sea and land-based ballistic missiles, strategic bombers, cruise missiles, spy satellite launches, the simulated destruction of a U.S. satellite, and a test of the Moscow ABM system.
The military exercise, overseen by President Vladimir Putin, will test the Russian nuclear triad while showing the world that Russia is still a first rate military power. Some dismiss the goals of the exercise as innocuous political maneuvers in anticipation of the Russian Presidential election in March. Officially, the exercise is said to be anti-terrorism-related. But a more likely explanation is that, like the 1982 tests, this exercise serves the genuine goals of sharpening of Russia’s offensive nuclear deterrent against the United States, overcoming American missile defenses, and upgrading Russia’s own missile defenses. As Putin commented last week, “The world should see our military power as an element of strategic security.” (More »»»)
» Update: Feb. 18: Itar-Tass: SS-19 Missile Launched
» Pravda description of nuclear exercise
» Update: Feb. 17, 2004: Two SLBM launches fail
» Russia denies Interfax, Itar-Tass reports of missile failures
» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons, Russia, Russian Missile Defenses, Testing - Foreign
Bush Signs Energy Bill with Mini-Nuke Funding
December 1, 2003 :: Newsday :: News
President Bush has signed legislation which includes research funding for low yield nuclear weapons—dubbed “mini-nukes” and billed for their capability to penetrate underground bunkers. Such weapons are essential for the U.S. to maintain a credible and usable nuclear arsenal, of value not only in deterring China and Russia but smaller ‘rogue’ states less easily categorized as rational actors. (Article, Link)
» Heritage Foundation’s Spencer: Learn to love the bomb
» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons
“35 to 40” Nations with Nuclear Capabilities
October 30, 2003 :: Spacewar.com :: News
As many as 40 nations are estimated to have the capability to produce nuclear weapons, Chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency Chief Mohamed ElBaradei said in an interview. In context of calling for an updated and expanded version of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), ElBaradei noted that “under the current regime, there is nothing illicit for a non-nuclear state to conduct uranium-enriching activities…or even to possess military-grade nuclear material,” he said. If one of these countries should choose to break its commitments under the NPT, it “could produce a weapon in just a few months,” or just as easily transfer materials to terrorist groups.
ElBaradei’s call for increased treaty restrictions may have merit, but only goes so far. Efforts on this front, like those of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), should continue, but be accompanied by vigorous efforts toward deploying missile defenses to prepare for the event if and when treaty measures fail. American security must not depend upon mere parchment barriers. The proliferation of nuclear technology proceeds apace with the proliferation of ballistic missiles. The United States should cooperate with stemming wholesale proliferation, but simultaneously prepare for the perhaps inevitable possession of nuclear armed ballistic missiles by ‘rogue’ states and terrorist groups. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation
U.S. to Resume Vital Tritium Production
October 22, 2003 :: ABC News :: News
The production of Tritium, an important component to the American nuclear arsenal, on hold since 1988, will now resume. Because the hydrogen isotope decays over time (half life of 12 years), new Tritium must constantly replace the old to even maintain the nuclear stockpile in functioning condition. Despite complaints from disarmament enthusiasts, the Tennessee Watts Bar nuclear reactor has now resumed the production of this strategic material, however, an action essential to the future of American strategic operations. Were production to be further suspended, the U.S. would have had to dip into its five year reserve beginning in 2005.
The Watts Bar reactor is located in Spring City, TN, approximately 45 miles from the town of Oak Ridge, where part of the Manhattan Project (the U.S. atomic bomb program) was located. (Article, Link)
» Nuclear Regulation Commission Fact Sheet on Tritium
» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons, Technology
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