Iran General Claims Nuclear Capability
January 7, 2005 :: Geostrategy-Direct :: News
One of Iran’s generals stated on December 28 that Iran has nuclear capability and threatened to use them against the United States if it is attacked, according to a news report by Geostrategy-Direct.
General Qassem Shabani said during a speech at Qom University, that “At present we have manufactured some weapons and acquired nuclear capabilities…In the event of war against America, we must resort to asymmetrical battles.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear Tipped Interceptor Proposal Rebuffed
January 7, 2005 :: Inside Defense :: News
The January 6 edition of Inside the Pentagon cites sources reporting that the Army Space and Missile Defense Command is revising a draft request for proposals which had originally expressed interest in nuclear-tipped interceptors for the purpose of ballistic missile defense. Inside Defense reports that defense officials have already removed the language. The language apparently referred to both possible directed energy and small nuclear warheads, but it was congressional opposition to the latter which apparently prompted the removal.
One might object to the use of nuclear tipped interceptors on the grounds that they are not necessary, and that effective technologies are possible with hit to kill, kinetic interceptors. In the absence of energetic support for even that program, however, nuclear tipped interceptors are certainly plausible as a last resort. Both Soviet-Russian missile defenses around Moscow and the short-lived U.S. missile interceptors based at Grand Forks, North Dakota in 1975, employed small (or, in the case of Russia, large) nuclear warheads which would obliterate any incoming missiles or warheads, regardless of any countermeasures. A nuclear explosion in space is not desirable, but it is better than one taking place on the ground. (Link)
» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons, Policy
New Publication: Getting MAD
December 14, 2004 :: Analysis
The latest in a series of books co-published by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and the Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute has been released and is available in full online. Edited by Henry D. Sokolski, Getting MAD is a collection of timely essays about how one may think about nuclear proliferation and nuclear strategy today.
Claremont Institute Fellow Mark T. Clark contributes a chapter to the book, which considers the recent nuclear proliferation to a number of smaller regimes, and asks whether the cold war framework of purely offensive deterrence, namely mutually assured destruction, can be imposed upon them with any level of confidence—or even with a straight face. Do North Korea and Iran pursue nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them only to deter others? Clark concludes that “the idea that SNPs [small nuclear powers] are limited to some form of mini-MAD deterrent seems unreasonably optimistic. The optimism rests on the notion that because MAD, even its mini-version, would be so catastrophic that its realization is exceedingly remote, if not a virtual impossibility.”
Such faith in the nuclear deterrence doctrines of the past rests upon the idea of that somehow merely technological advances in destructive capacity—the “nuclear revolution”—have somehow rendered obsolete the classical rules, ends, and possible outcomes of war. But human nature remains the same, and so do the purposes of strategy. It is for precisely these reasons that war, even nuclear war, is still possible even in the post-Cold War era. And it is for just this reason that missile defenses to defend against the inevitable proliferation of such technologies are so important. (Article, Link)
» Getting MAD in .pdf form
» Biography and writings by Mark T. Clark
» More stories on: Analysis, Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation
CIA Report on Proliferation
November 24, 2004 :: New York Times :: News
In a report to Congress yesterday, the CIA said that North Korea had repeatedly threatened to test, or “transfer,” a nuclear weapon. Furthermore, North Korea could test a long-range ballistic missile at any time, “potentially capable of reaching parts of the United States with a nuclear-weapon-sized payload.” These threats took place in April, and again in August 2003.
The report also noted that Iran continues its ambitious nuclear program with significant aid from Pakistan, and that Beijing’s proliferation “remains of great concern.” Russia’s role in missile and nuclear proliferation, especially to Iran, was also discussed. (Article, Link)
» Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions
» More stories on: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons
Powell: Iran Adapting Missiles to Carry Nuclear Warheads
November 18, 2004 :: Washington Post :: News
Departing Secretary of State Colin Powell recently remarked that Iran is preparing its missile systems to carry nuclear weapons. Despite the attention to the story, however, Powell’s comments do not constitute any new revelation. Nor should they come as any surprise, especially given the aid Iran has been receiving from abroad, and in particular from China and Russia. Unless and until one puts together the pieces to see the larger geopolitical alliances responsible for proliferation, one will continue to be surprised by these numerous and apparently unrelated stories. (More »»»)
» Nov. 18: Interfax: Russia will continue to aid Iran’s nuclear program
» Apr. 27: John Bolton: Russia China proliferating; Iran lying about peaceful character of nuclear program
» Nov. 18: Powell remarks on Iranian nuclear modifications to missiles
» More stories on: China, Iran, Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation
» Missile details: Shahab-3, Shahab-4
Iraq Nuclear Sites Systematically Dismantled
October 15, 2004 :: CNN :: News
The Associated Press and other news agencies have reported that a number of Iraqi nuclear sites show evidence of having been systematically emptied, and their materials removed. The removal apparently took place even after the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and continued through 2004.
The Duelfer report, released last week, also suggested that large quantities of materials, possibly weapons of mass destruction related, had gone to Syria before the war began.
These revelations again point to the possibility that Iraqi weapons of mass destruction did in fact exist, and may yet be found. But their removal serves to significantly undermine the rationale for the war, and the impetus for future preemptive strikes against, for example, Iran and North Korea.
News of the removal comes alongside the annoucement that the Russian-supported nuclear reactor in Iran is now complete. (Article, Link)
» Oct. 14, 2004: Iran nuclear reactor now complete
» More stories on: Iran, Iraq, Nuclear Weapons
Khamenei Gives 2-Nuke Religious Quota
September 30, 2004 :: Geostrategy-Direct :: News
Geostrategy-Direct cites a U.S. official as saying that the Ayatollah Khamenei has told a gathering of Iran’s senior military and government officials that the production of at least two nuclear weapons is a religious duty. Khamenei is cited as saying that, “We must have two bombs ready to go in January or you are not Muslims.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, Nuclear Weapons
Libya Had Chinese Nuclear Warhead Design, Materials to Build
July 22, 2004 :: Inside the Ring (Washington Times) :: News
U.S. Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham has stated that Libya had in its possession not only the blueprints for a Chinese nuclear warhead, but all the components to produce it, reports Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough. The design had apparently come through the A. Q. Khan Pakistani proliferation network, but Secretary Abraham was unwilling to comment as to its source before then: “As to how things got to who, I can’t tell you the chain,” he said. He also noted that in terms of completing a nuclear warhead, they had both the design and materials: “It would take them time to get it done, but they definitely did not lack for the ingredients.
The Chinese, despite their protests and nominal opposition to nuclear and missile proliferation, are in fact very much behind the proliferation of both. States such as Pakistan and North Korea are, indeed, proxy states in such proliferation. One may speculate that Pakistan would not have delivered the Chinese blueprint to Libya if China did not wish it to do so. (Article, Link)
» Report of Libya’s Chinese nuclear weapon design, from geostrategy-direct.com
» More stories on: China, Libya, Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation
North Korea Threatens Nuclear Test
June 25, 2004 :: London Guardian :: News
North Korea has threatened to test one of its nuclear weapons if the United States does not accede to its various demands in exchange for (again) freezing its nuclear program. The threat comes in the midst of the multi-nation talks over the North’s nuclear programs, North Korea’s accusation that the United States is pursuing a hostile policy, and Russia and China both defending the small communist country, and warning that their missile and nuclear threat should not be exaggerated. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons
Payne: Low Yield Nukes Important Deterrent
May 17, 2004 :: National Review Online :: Analysis
Writing for National Review Online, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense Keith Payne argues that low yield nuclear weapons are invaluable to maintaining America’s deterrent, and offer a host of smaller and cleaner retaliatory options. There is no reason nuclear weapons need be an untouchable and unthinkable taboo—and such concepts only cloud more hard-headed strategic thinking. Technological advances in more precise targeting have eliminated the need for larger weapons; smaller, more accurate devices can deliver the same effect when delivered more closely to their target. Payne persuasively points out that the decision to use nuclear weapons would still be be guided by the most extraordinary strategic political circumstances, and for this reason no mystical or special character of nuclear technology should stand in the way of their development. Smaller nuclear weapons only broadens the options at the disposal of a commander in chief. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons
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