November 9, 2005 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
In part of the executive overview to the new edition of Jane’s Strategic Weapons Systems publication, Duncan Lennox summarizes two features receiving relatively new attention in the missile defense community: ship-launched missiles and maneuverable reentry vehicles which are a sort of hybrid between ballistic and cruise missile technologies, two issues frequently referenced on Missilethreat.com.
The ship-launched threat is relevant for rogue states or even terrorists who might acquire a SCUD or other primitive missile, equip it with a WMD payload, and deliver it from a short distance off the coast of a major U.S. city. The 1998 Rumsfeld Report warned of such a threat. As Secretary of Defense, Rumsfeld has repeatedly noted that rogue states have tested missiles in this configuration and that the near term threat remains, as have other administration officials. Missilethreat.com maintains an archive of related stories. “The ship-launched threat is one that needs to be taken seriously,” Lennox notes.
As for the development of maneuverable reentry vehicles, this applies especially to Russia’s continued announcements over the last two years that its new ballistic missiles, the Topol-M and the Bulava, are armed with some sort of hypersonic payload which would be capable of maneuvering in its midcourse and terminal phase, and thereby evading the sort of ground-based, midcourse ballistic missile defenses currently being fielded in Alaska and California. On this point, Lennox observes, “the sum conclusion is that in the future, the ballistic missile and nuclear warhead threat situation is going to become more complex and international in nature, with whole regions likely to be involved rather than just two individual countries.” Less unclear, however, is the extent to which long-range ICBMs would be able to maneuver significantly in their boost phase, when the missile is working to obtain altitude and speed necessary to travel long distances.
Maneuverable Warheads:
A new class of ballistic missiles is emerging, now being called ‘quasi- or semi-’ ballistic missiles. These are missiles that can manoeuvre during the boost, mid-course, and the terminal phases of flight. In the case of SRBM these missiles have very depressed trajectories, possibly as low as 40 km altitude for a missile with a range of 300 to 400 km. The trajectory shape is flat, but with the ability to change direction across track as well as to increase or decrease the range. This will make it more difficult for any defensive system to forecast the impact point. Such missiles have been available now for several years, but the newly emerging systems have a considerably improved capability that will stress the defence of forward deployed troops. The Russian Federation has also indicated that it is developing a similar capability for RVs fitted to their future ICBM and SLBM.
Ballistic missiles are less expensive to maintain than an air force, and the technologies can be transferred across to satellite launch vehicles, earning hard currencies. There seems no logical reason to expect these factors to change, and proliferation seems set to continue. However, the sum conclusion is that in the future, the ballistic missile and nuclear warhead threat situation is going to become more complex and international in nature, with whole regions likely to be involved rather than just two individual countries.
Emerging Threats
The most difficult issue lies in the determination of the actual threats. Whilst ballistic missiles remain the weapons of choice for the superpowers, the less powerful nations are moving towards both ballistic and cruise missile options, and terrorists have demonstrated that hijacked aircraft can be just as effective. In addition, the modification of private or commercial aircraft into drones - or even suicide bombers using microlights - has to be considered as equally threatening. A government needs to apportion its defence budget to cover all threats, and balance of investment studies are complex and difficult to explain to politicians and the public.
An emerging awareness of the threat posed by SRBM or cruise missiles being launched from ships between 200 and 500 km from a major port or city has been prompted by recent studies in the US. The increasing development of solid propellant SRBM makes the ship-launched threat more likely in the future. Cruise missiles have always used technologies that are easier to acquire, due to their similarities with light aircraft, UAVs and target drones. In addition many cruise missiles are small enough to fit into a standard ISO container, and millions of containers are shipped around the world each year. The ship-launched threat is one that needs to be taken seriously.
(Article)
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