2009 Report on Chinese Military Power
March 26, 2009 :: Department of Defense :: News
The Defense Department this week released its 2009 report, Military Power of the People's Republic of China, as mandated by Congress. The annual report describes China's continued development and deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the development of a new class of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, and the steady increase of medium range ballistic missiles near both the China-India border and the Chinese coast near Taiwan. China also continues to pursue both counterspace and cyberwarfare capabilities, which could threaten America's considerable reliance upon space and electronic assets.
As it does every year, the Chinese government reacted negatively to the report. Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang suggested that the United States "drop the Cold War thinking and prejudices, stop releasing such China military reports and stop the groundless accusations over China."
Ballistic and Cruise Missiles
China, the report observes, "has the most active land-based ballistic and cruise missile program in the world."
One highlight of China's missile efforts is the development of an anti-ship variant of the CSS-5 ballistic missile. This anti-ship missile has a considerable range, of some 1,500 km. Its final stage is designed for maneuverable reentry, making its target more difficult to anticipate, and thus complicating defense against the missile. Such a missile could enhance the Chinese ability to attack ships at sea, including for example American aircraft carriers in the Taiwan Strait.
Unchanged from the 2008 report, China continues to deploy road-mobile solid-fueled ICBMs—most notably the DF-31A, which brings within range any location in the continental United States. The DF-31 and DF-31A are the newest and most sophisticated ICBMs in China's arsenal. Their mobility and solid-fuel engines also make them among the most survivable.
The Pentagon's estimate of China's inventory of CSS-2, CSS-3, CSS-4, DF-31, DF-31A and CSS-5 ballistic missiles remains unchanged in number from last year. China has, however, increased its inventory since 2007 of CSS-6s (from 315-355 to 350-400), of CSS-7s (from 675-715 to 700-750), and of DH-10 cruise missiles (from 50-250 to 150-350).
The JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is still being developed. Once completed, the JL-2 will be deployed aboard new JIN-class (Type 094) submarines. With a range of 7,200 km, the JL-2 would give China its "first credible sea-based nuclear strike capability."
China's industrial ability to produce and upgrade short- and medium-range ballistic missiles has also increased. The Pentagon estimates China could significantly increase the number of short range missiles it produces each year, and could even double the annual output of medium range missiles. The increased production capability may be designed to create a missile export market, thereby proliferating such systems abroad.
China continues to expand the force opposite Taiwan; seven brigades are now stationed nearby, comprising a total of 1,050-1,150 CSS-6 and CSS-7 short range missiles. China continues to augment its missiles within striking distance of Taiwan at the "rate of more than 100 per year."
Along its border with India, China has replaced its older liquid-fueled nuclear-capable CSS-3 intermediate range missiles with more sophisticated solid-fueled CSS-5 medium range missiles.
China continues to produce and purchase an array of sophisticated and accurate cruise missiles, including the DH-10 and YJ-62 land-attack cruise missiles and the Russian SS-N-22/SUNBURN supersonic air-launched cruise missile. The SS-N-27B/SIZZLER supersonic air-launched cruise missile is placed on China's KILO-class diesel electric submarines purchased from Russia. The YJ-62C, a new variant of the YJ-62, has a range of 150 nautical miles; China has reportedly deployed 120 of these to naval bases near Taiwan.
Submarines and Ships
China's growing submarine fleet could begin to pose a threat to the United States navy. Two new SHANG-class (Type 093) nuclear-powered attack submarines and one JIN-class (Type 094) submarine, previously scheduled to enter service last year, are now operational. The JIN-class is of particular interest, as it will be the deployment vehicle for the JL-2 ballistic missile now in development.
These newer submarines will supplement China's four older HAN-class nuclear attack submarines and China's one XIA-class sub. The DoD estimates that China has 13 SONG-class (Type 039) diesel-electric attack submarines, designed to carry the YJ-82 (CH-SS-N-7) anti-ship cruise missile. The next generation attack submarine is the YUAN-class SS: one of these is already operational and another is undergoing sea trials. Judging from China's purchase of diesel engines from Germany, the report estimates that China plans to build up to 15 additional YUAN-class attack submarines.
China's guided-missile destroyers have been hardened and are being given anti-aircraft capabilities, including both Russian and indigenous surface to air missiles (SAMs). These include the Russian SA-N-20 long-range SAM and China's own medium-range HHQ-16, a vertically launched naval SAM under development.
Space and Counterspace
Since China successfully tested a direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon in January 2007 using a ballistic missile, China has continued to pursue ASAT capabilities. The 2009 report describes China's interest in counterspace systems as "more than theoretical. In addition to the ‘kinetic kill' capability demonstrated by the ASAT test, the PLA is developing the ability to jam, blind, or otherwise disable satellites and their terrestrial support infrastructure."
China placed fifteen satellites into orbit in 2008, including four new remote sensing satellites, a manned spacecraft and a companion satellite, three communications satellites, and two satellites for meteorology. In April 2008, China launched its first data relay satellite, the TianLian-1.
Construction has begun for a new rocket launch facility near Wenchang to eventually place heavier payloads in space using its March V booster rocket (the world's largest) still in development.
China's first lunar probe, the Chang'e-1, continues to operate successfully. Its successor will launch in 2009 and will survey the moon surface. China, however, continues to "remain silent about the military applications of [its] space programs and counterspace activities."
Cyberwarfare
China continues to experiment with cyberwarfare. The PRC appears to have been the source of numerous cyber intrusions during 2008, including against computer systems owned by the U.S. Government. These hacks were intended to extract information rather than attack, but the logistics and skill-set required for each activity are similar.
Spending
China's defense spending grew 18% in 2008. China reports its annual military budget as $60 billion, but this number is widely recognized as understated. Pentagon estimates of actual military spending range from $105 to $150 billion. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Cruise Missiles, Taiwan
» Missile details: CSS-3 (DF-4), CSS-4 (DF-5), CSS-4 (DF-5A), CSS-5 (DF-21), CSS-5 Mod 2 (DF-21A/B), CSS-6 (DF-15/M-9), CSS-7 (DF-11), CSS-7 Mod 2 (DF-11A), CSS-8 (M-7), CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A), CSS-N-3 (JL-1), CSS-N-3 (JL-1A), CSS-NX-5/CSS-NX-4 (JL-2)
Tellis: Don't Panic About Space Weapons
February 22, 2008 :: The Wall Street Journal :: Analysis
Ashley J. Tellis, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, analyzest the Chinese and Russian draft treaty aimed at banning weapons in space in the February 22 edition of the Wall Street Journal. Tellis argues that the treaty would in fact
neither effectively prohibit their deployment, nor conclusively annul the threat of force against space objects. It would only produce the illusion of security, while doing nothing to eliminate the counterspace capabilities currently present in many countries, especially China.
The principal problem is the treaty addresses weapons in space (of which there are none), as opposed to land- and sea-based kinetic, directed-energy and electromagnetic attack systems. However, even a retooled treaty to expand arms control regulation for these systems would miss the mark as "counterspace weapons are impossible to identify by national technical means, or even by intrusive inspections." An outright ban on these weapons would be unlikely given political considerations, and a treaty that allowed the development and deployment of these weapons but not their use would be open to abuse. Tellis argues that China and Russia support the draft treaty because of three political and strategic reasons.
First, they genuinely fear an imminent American deployment of space weapons—perhaps in connection with missile defense— and want a treaty to impede that deployment...Second, a space security treaty allows Russia and China to engage in some eye-catching histrionics. It enables them to dominate international public diplomacy and paint the U.S. as the irresponsible driver of a new arms race... Third, the Russian-Chinese draft treaty remains a splendid way for Beijing to draw international attention away from its own growing counterspace program—even as it enables Russia to assuage its own discomfort with China's space-denial capabilities.
Tellis concludes that the Bush administration is correct to reject this treaty, and encourages any new presidential administration to do the same. (Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, Space-Based Systems, Russia, China
China Commission: Chinese Tech Spying Forms Major Threat
November 15, 2007 :: News
The annual report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, released to the public November 15, notes that Chinese spies are stealing a considerable quantity of critical U.S.-developed technologies, which are being used to upgrade Chinese manufacturing practices and their military. Daniel Blumenthal, the commission's vice chair, is quoted as saying that China's military buildup exceeds most U.S. estimates, which is "causing a lot of surprise" among government and private analysts. The report discusses the "emotionally charged standoff" between China and Taiwan, and warns that the U.S. may have to intervene in a conflict between the two states and face China's rapidly expanding and technologically advanced armed forces. (Article, Link)
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China ASAT Test Exposed U.S. Vulnerabilities
October 18, 2007 :: Spacewar.com :: News
At a change of command ceremony at the U.S. Strategic Command, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates observed that the January 11 Chinese anti-satellite test revealed the U.S.'s current vulnerabilities in space, and pointed out again the need for better defended satellites. In the test, China destroyed one of its own weather satellites in low Earth orbit using an anti-satellite weapon aboard a ballistic missile. "It is through space we monitor the weapons we already know exist," Gates said. "It is through space we can track adversaries attempting to acquire these weapons and then do something about it. It is through space that our troops and our leadership monitor the battlefield and communicate with each other. Therefore, it is space we must protect, especially as we expand its use." (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Policy
China Could Develop Anti-Satellite Weapons within Three Years
August 14, 2007 :: News
Lieutenant General Kevin Campbell, head of the U.S. Army's Space and Missile Defense Command, on August 14 stated that China could be three years away from being able to disrupt U.S. military satellites in a regional conflict. Speaking at an annual missile defense conference in Huntsville, Alabama, Campbell said China's anti-satellite test in January was a clear demonstration of its ability to destroy an orbiting satellite.
The anti-satellite missiles, coupled with its satellite jamming and computer network attack skills provide China with, "multi-dimensional capabilities to attack various [U.S.] systems that are in orbit today." The Lieutenant General concluded that "guaranteed space superiority in all future conflicts as well as in peacetime" needed to permeate everything the U.S. military does. "One does not have to get caught up in arguments over whether or not to weaponize space, or whether this becomes an arms race... It is simply irresponsible for us not to plan for, and to think about and to assure that we can have freedom of action." (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Space-Based Systems
China Opposed to European Missile Defense
July 18, 2007 :: Interfax :: News
Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Liu Jianchiao has criticized missile defense systems as impediments to close cooperation between nations and the pursuit of peace. "China is consistent in its confidence that the deployment of missile defense systems is detrimental to the current strategic condition of peace and stability in the world; that it does not promote regional security and mutual trust between countries, and may engender the problem of proliferation of missile weapons and an arms race." Asked by Interfax to comment on Russia's suspension of its participation in the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, Liu said: "We have taken into consideration Russia's statement and its concerns about security issues." (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
Schmitt on China's Military Power
June 14, 2007 :: Washington Post :: Analysis
Gary J. Schmitt writes for The Washington Post on China's increased military spending. The U.S. has a tendency to "complain that we don't know exactly how much China is spending on its military and what exactly it is acquiring. Most important, we complain that we don't know the strategic 'why' behind this buildup." While most scholars attribute China's ballooning military spending to political circumstance or the size of the U.S.'s budget, Schmitt argues that in fact:
[T]he Chinese military buildup really began after the demise of the Soviet Union—that is, precisely when China had the least reason to worry about its defense needs. And the buildup continued during a period when the United States was cutting its own defense budget by significant amounts. Moreover, no other Asian regional power was putting forward double-digit defense increases. To the contrary, Taiwan—presumably China's main military concern—was slashing its defense budget. And Japan, the only possible regional ‘great power' competitor to China, was suffering from a decade of economic stagnation, with a static defense budget to match.
Schmitt suggests that the Chinese believe a first-class army is critical for its global stature in its quest to become a world power. "The Chinese are a proud people and they want to be seen as a powerful, potentially dominant, state. And power, they understand, includes not only a strong economy but a powerful military. When the Chinese look at the world today, who gets in their way most of the time? It's certainly not the Europeans, who have economic strength but little hard power. It's the United States." (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Analysis
Stakelbeck on a New Ballistic Missile Triad
June 14, 2007 :: Washington Times :: Analysis
Fredrick Stakelbeck writes for The Washington Times discussing the the emerging ballistic missile threat to the United States from Russia, China and Iran.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has assisted Iran with the development of its missile technology and nuclear program, has recently claimed he may freeze Russia's compliance with the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty and the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty. Russia recently tested a new RS-24 missile which is especially designed to penetrate missile defenses.
The recent Department of Defense report on China's military spending "catalogs in great detail the country's continued efforts to establish not only a defensive ballistic missile capability, but an offensive ‘first strike' capability as well. The expected deployment of additional mobile, land and sea-based ballistic nuclear missiles that can reach the U.S. mainland have raised serious questions in Washington about the county's regional and global intentions." While China has maintained a "no first strike" policy, "other sources suggest that they are possibly developing capabilities for a more flexible use of nuclear weapons that would call into question this declared policy."
Led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran has developed with significant Chinese and Russian assistance, its Shahab-3 and Shahab-4 missiles, which can target Israel and Europe respectively. Iran also has continued its quest to acquire nuclear weapons despite diplomatic efforts to halt its program.
Stakelbeck concludes, "In the meantime, the United States and its allies should consider increasing funding dedicated to the research, development and testing of a more agile anti-missile defense umbrella. By taking this important step, the combined offensive intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities of China, Russia and Iran, as well as rogue nations such as North Korea, will be made increasingly irrelevant." (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Russia, Iran
Helprin on the Chinese Nuclear Threat
March 5, 2007 :: Washington Post :: Analysis
Claremont Institute Senior Fellow Mark Helprin writes on the growing threat from Chinese ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, in the March 4 edition of the Washington Post. Helprin notes China's steady and disciplined rise in military power, and that despite recent friendly overtones, China's long term intentions may sharply differ from those of the United States. Helprin notes too the ability which China, along with ballistic missile and nuclear-armed nations, to threaten the United States with a debelitating Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack, which would target the immense and vulnerable power grid on which the United States economy is so wholly dependent. The congressionally-mandated commission to assess the EMP threat delivered its report in 2004, but since then almost no action has been taken. An excerpt:
Given China's appetites and our alliances and interests, a war is not inconceivable in Taiwan, or in Korea. To remove American nuclear escalation from the equation, China would need not parity but only a deterrent such as it has long possessed. The Chinese, however, whose nuclear thresholds are dissimilar to ours, would have other options.
They know that every facet of America's economy, military and society depends on individual and networked electronic devices. Were these to fail all at once and irreparably, the nation would seize up, perhaps for years.
Faced with victory, or with loss, they might choose to -- and who would venture to guarantee that they would not? -- detonate half a dozen high-megatonnage nuclear charges in the mesosphere, in an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) strike perhaps not even in American airspace, cooking almost every circuit and semiconductor, rendering the American government blind, deaf and dumber than it is already and the country unable to resist the inroads that would surely follow.
Though we would undoubtedly respond in kind, China is not as technically dependent as are we. Nor, given China's sufficiency for a counterstrike, could we deter an EMP attack with the prospect of massive retaliation, especially because an EMP strike, with no immediate casualties, would seem as peaceful as snow in still air.
The piece also appears in the forthcoming issue of the Claremont Review of Books. The full text: (More »»»)
» More stories on: Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Weapons, China
Chinese Test Anti-Satellite Weapon
January 18, 2007 :: Aviation Week & Space Technology :: News
Aviation Week & Space Technology reports that China has successfully performed an anti-satellite (ASAT) test at an altitude around 500 miles. The test reportedly took place on January 11, with an aging Chinese weather satellite being destroyed. The satellite, designated FY-1C, was reportedly targeted with a kinetic kill vehicle launched on board a ballistic missile. A cloud of debris reportedly exists in the satellite's prior orbit. The capability to destroy space-based systems is a significant one, given the extent the United States depends upon such systems. (Article, Link)
» New York Times: National Security Council Confirms Chinese ASAT Test
» More stories on: China, Testing - Foreign, Space-Based Systems
