China to Market B-611 Missile
December 10, 2004 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
China’s new short range “B-611” missile system, first reported here on November 1, has been described as one of a “family of B6 missiles,” and is now reportedly up for sale, according to the recent issue of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets. The most recent story adds that firing preparation time is 25 minutes. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
» Missile details: B-611
China Testing New Class of Nuclear Missile Submarine
December 3, 2004 :: Washington Times :: News
The Washington Times reports that China has recently launched a new class of ballistic missile submarines, Type-094, an significant improvement upon its current Xia class vessel. Bill Gertz quotes one defense official as saying that the submarine will “represent a more modern, more capable missile platform,” and an intelligence official, that the new submarine, reportedly largely based on Russian technologies, will be will be “China’s first truly intercontinental strategic nuclear delivery system.”
The submarine will carry 16 of the JL-2 ballistic missiles, each with multiple warheads. The JL-2 is the sea-based version of the land-based DF-31. Tests of the JL-2 reportedly took place in 2002 and 2003. According to Gertz, citing other U.S. intelligence officials, the Chinese tested the JL-2 missile this summer, but the test failed. No such reports made the mainstream news at the time. (More »»»)
» More stories on: China
» Missile details: CSS-NX-5/CSS-NX-4 (JL-2)
Iran Developing Longer Range Missiles
December 2, 2004 :: New York Times :: News
Citing an Iranian opposition group, the New York Times today reports that Iran is secretly developing a ballistic missile of considerably longer-range than that which it currently admits to having, in part with the aid of North Korean scientists. The dissident group, also said to be a terrorist group, says the new missile would have a range of more than 1,500 miles (2,400km). Iran has already tested versions of its Shahab-3/4 with a range of 2,000km. Such a range would give the terrorist sponsoring nation the capability to target much of Europe.
Today the U.S. State Department also slapped sanctions on four Chinese entities (including one state-run firm) and one North Korean company, for their aiding Iran with its missile and weapons programs. Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs are not taking place in a vacuum, and their progress should come as no surprise. The proliferation of ballistic missile and weapons programs to Iran would seem to be a matter of high state policy for China and North Korea, as well as Russia, whose entities regularly receive similar sanctions and which is a primary contributor to Iran’s nuclear reactor programs.
Update: Dec. 3: Other reports include a more detailed description of the report by the National Council of Resistance of Iran. The council is said to have identified not one, but two longer-range missiles under development, calling them Ghadr 101 and Ghadr 110. Their ranges are said to be 2,500 and 3,000km, respectively. Reuters compares these missiles, being developed at the Hemmat Missile Industries complex, to the more advanced Scud E. Also of note is that the council described Iran’s August test of a Shahab missile as being of the Shahab-4, rather than the Shahab-3. Some have speculated that Iran’s retaining the same nomenclature for a more advanced missile may be part of a design to understate its capabilities. Iran has only admitted to having or pursuing missiles with a range of no more than 2,000km.
The council quoted by Middle East Newsline on December 2 describes the range of the Shahab-4 as between 2,000 to 3,000 kilometers—which may well be possible, but a 3,000km range for the Shahab-4 would seem to undercut the claim that a 3,000km range Ghadr missile would constitute a real improvement. (Article, Link)
» Dec. 2: State Dept. imposes sanctions on Chinese and North Korean entities
» Dec. 3: Reuters: two “Ghadr” missiles under development
» Dec. 3: Middle East Newsline: Iran-China satellite accord will aid Iranian missile accuracy
» More stories on: China, Iran, Proliferation
» Missile details: Shahab 3, Shahab 4
Bush: China Should Exercise Prudence, Restraint
November 26, 2004 :: Taipei Times :: News
During a recent meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Santiago, Chile, President Bush asked China to use restraint and prudence with regard to its large, and quickly expanding ballistic missile buildup off the coast of Taiwan. Sec. of State Colin Powell reported the president’s remarks to reporters, saying that Bush “expressed some concern over the fact that there are so many missiles in the Mainland that are pointed toward Taiwan, and we encouraged the Chinese side to act with restraint and prudence.  (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
IISS: Eight DF-31 Missiles Deployed
November 24, 2004 :: East Asia Intel :: News
In its Military Balance review published in mid-October, the International Institute of Strategic Studies reported that China has deployed some eight DF-31 ICBMs, notes East Asia Intel. Although some claimed that this is the first report that the DF-31 (CSS-9) has actually been operationally deployed, this is not the case. Specifying that eight are deployed, however, is significant, and may be the first such count. Given the cautious methodology of the IISS, however, the actual number deployed may be considerably more. Department of Defense and CIA estimates have been more circumspect yet, not reporting that the DF-31 has been deployed at all. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
» Missile details: CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A)
Powell: Iran Adapting Missiles to Carry Nuclear Warheads
November 18, 2004 :: Washington Post :: News
Departing Secretary of State Colin Powell recently remarked that Iran is preparing its missile systems to carry nuclear weapons. Despite the attention to the story, however, Powell’s comments do not constitute any new revelation. Nor should they come as any surprise, especially given the aid Iran has been receiving from abroad, and in particular from China and Russia. Unless and until one puts together the pieces to see the larger geopolitical alliances responsible for proliferation, one will continue to be surprised by these numerous and apparently unrelated stories. (More »»»)
» Nov. 18: Interfax: Russia will continue to aid Iran’s nuclear program
» Apr. 27: John Bolton: Russia China proliferating; Iran lying about peaceful character of nuclear program
» Nov. 18: Powell remarks on Iranian nuclear modifications to missiles
» More stories on: China, Iran, Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation
» Missile details: Shahab 3, Shahab 4
The Real Sources of Ballistic Missile Proliferation
November 11, 2004 :: Ha'aretz :: Analysis
An article in today’s Ha’aretz describes the work of a German scientist by the name of Robert Schmucker who has been making a case about the nature of ballistic missile proliferation, one which sounds similar to that so often made here, at Missilethreat.com. Namely, that the real sources of such a problem are less from the spontaneous research programs of rogue states, but rather primarily from the considerable, and perhaps not altogether unconscious, proliferation by China and Russia. An excerpt: (More »»»)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Proliferation, Russia
Pro-China NSC Staff Delaying Patriot Sale to Taiwan
November 9, 2004 :: East Asia Intel :: News
Pro-Chinese staff members of the White House National Security Council are said to be delaying the sale of Patriot missile defense interceptors to Taiwan—systems essential to the island’s deterrence of China’s rapid missile buildup. East Asia Intel reports that the “pro-China faction,” argues that since Taiwan’s military is infiltrated by Chinese agents, China could acquire additional classified technology. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Allies, China, Taiwan
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
Russian Estimate of Chinese Strategic Arsenal
November 4, 2004 :: Interfax :: News
Interfax recently quoted Russian specialist Pavel Kamennov as estimating that China has some 252 strategic nuclear missiles, including 120 silo-based missiles, and 12 submarine-based missiles, notes East-Asia-Intel. China was also said to have 120 H-6 strategic bombers. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
New Chinese Missile, B-611
November 1, 2004 :: Reuters :: News
Citing Reuters, The New Zealand Herald reports that a new Chinese short-range ballistic missile was revealed November 1. The missile’s stated range is 80-150km makes it possibly sufficient to strike Taiwan (~160km distant), according to information distributed at the Zhuhai air show. The missile is given the appellation “B-611.” the B-611 was further described as “an effective weapon in the battlefield for fire support and an important attacking force in modern conventional wars.”
Update: November 11: East Asia Intel reports that Chinese descriptions of the missile at the airshow compared it to the Russian SS-X-26, also known as Stone, Tender, or Iskander. The missile is also said to have a payload capacity of 480kg, and an accuracy (Circular Error of Probability) of 150 meters. (Article, Link)
» Oct. 30: Chinese airshow to sport new military equipment
» Nov. 2: AFP: Display is first of Chinese surface-to-surface missiles
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
» Missile details: B-611, SS-26
