Russia to Launch Iranian Satellites Within Months
February 2, 2005 :: Kommersant :: News
In January of 2004, Iran declared that within the next 18 months it would launch a satellite into orbit using its own rocket systems and doing so from its own territory, becoming the first Islamic state to do so. Recently, however, reports the Russian Kommersant, Iran has signed an agreement with Russia which will permit it to launch two satellites, named Mesbah and Sinah-1, from the Russian Plesetsk launching site. According to the Russian newspaper, Moscow persuaded Iran to do so to avoid a harsh American reaction. Both are said to be spy satellites. The Mesbah satellite is said to orbit at 900km. The Sinah-1 is said to weight some 20 kg. Other sources also refer to cooperation on a Zohreh telecommunications satellite, but Kommersant claims this project may have been a diversion.
Iran would probably have launched the satellites using its own Shahab missile, which it claims is not intended for distances even sufficient to reach Europe. A ballistic missile capable of putting a satellite into orbit, however, is also capable of traveling long distances, indeed, nearly anywhere on earth, notes Kommersant. Kommersant also claims that Italy, China, Mongolia, Pakistan and Thailand were each assisting Iran in preparations for the launch, but that they have since withdrawn such help out of concern for U.S. sanctions. Although Iran was also negotiating with China for such a launch, Russia is said to have stepped in to help Iran complete the project. The launch is reported to take place in the second quarter of 2005, perhaps by May, and will use the Russian Kosmos-3M launcher.
If one gathers nothing else from this and other news of similar proliferation and military ties, it should be that Russia and China both continue to project power into the middle east, and are specifically interested in making Iran a strategic ally. Both countries do so in order to counter American force. Neither country is a friend, or ally, of the United States. Both are rather strategic competitors. Any attempt to confront the Iranian regime, its sponsorship of terrorism, its nuclear and other WMD programs, and its ballistic missile programs, would be strongly opposed by both countries. (Article, Link)
» Geostrategy Direct on Iran-Russia satellite cooperation
» Nov. 29, 2004: Aviation Weekly & Space Technology: Iranian space interests disguise strategic missile ambitions
» Sep. 20, 2004: Iran announces plan to launch satellite
» Middle East Newsline on Iranian-Russian satellite launch plans
» More stories on: China, Iran, Russia, Space-Based Systems
Ukraine Reportedly Sold Nuclear-Capable Cruise Missiles to China, Iran
February 2, 2005 :: News
Ukrainian lawmaker Hryhoriy Omelchenko recently wrote a letter to newly elected President Viktor Yushchenko claiming that the government of Yushchenko’s predecessor, Leonid Kuchma, in collaboration with members of the military and the state arms company UkrSpetzExport sold some 20 air-launched Kh-55 and Kh-55M cruise missiles, which had the capability to carry nuclear weapons. Of these, six were sent to Iran and six to China, all between 1999 and 2001. The transfers, if true, would violate various non-proliferation agreements. Kuchma’s government is also believed to have sold advanced radar systems to Iraq in 2002, despite UN sanctions to the contrary. An American embassy spokesman in Kiev was quoted by the Associated Press as saying that the United States was “aware of the reports” of such sales and took them “very seriously.”
The Kh-55 cruise missile has a range of 3,000 kilometers, is capable of carrying a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead, and was developed for use on Russian Tupolev long-range bombers. In June 2004, Russia tested an air-launched Kh-55 which may well have been the Kh-55. (Article, Link)
» June 29, 2004: Russia tests air-launched cruise missile
» More stories on: China, Former Soviet Republics, Iran, Proliferation
Helprin on the Long Term Threat from China
January 24, 2005 :: The Wall Street Journal :: Analysis
Claremont Institute Fellow Mark Helprin writes in today’s Wall Street Journal on the problems facing an ambitious democratization effort in Iraq, but also the lack of strategic clarity that the United States seems to have as regards the growing threat from China.
By taking intelligent advantage of the fertile relation between economic development and military capacity, China will be able to leverage its extraordinary growth into superpower parity with the United States. Without the destruction of Chinese social and political equilibrium, this is only a matter of time. And just as we had no policy for dealing with the rise of Germany, Japan, and (prior to the late 1940s) Russia, we have none here.
But with the exception of South Korea, which chafes under our protection and may eventually break from the fold, our major allies in the Pacific are islands, and conveniently in this regard our strengths are the air, the sea, space, and amphibious warfare. We have not since the Korean War been able to face China on the mainland, but if we vigorously augment what we do best, we and our allies—by deterrence and maneuver rather than war—can hold the chain of islands well into the coming century or longer, after which our objective would be to contest the open ocean. China’s objective is to establish a defensive line to the east of the chain, and it is building up its navy accordingly. But we, to prepare for the coming maritime century in the Pacific, are forcing naval strength to its lowest levels since the 1930s.
Uneven and ineffective application of military power, vulnerability to mass terrorism and natural epidemics, blindness to the rise of a great competitor: matters like these, that may seem remote and abstract, are seldom as remote and abstract as they seem. A hundred years ago, our predecessors, unable to sense what had already begun, did not know the price they would pay as the century wore on. But, as the century wore on, that price was exacted without mercy.
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
Congressmen: Beware of China’s Intentions
January 24, 2005 :: Defense News :: News
A ten-member Congressional delegation returning from a visit to China has words of warning and caution to policymakers at home, quoted in an excellent report by Defense News. Representative Randy Forbes (R-VA), who led the delegation, said that by the end of the trip, “we weren’t sure whether they were going to be our best friend or our worst enemy.” Representative Jim Cooper (D-TN), said that he returned “much more worried than I had been before,” and described China’s rapid acquisition of offensive weapons, as well as the fact that the Chinese seemed to be consumed with the issue of Taiwan.
Representative Forbes also warned that, “if Taiwan moves toward greater independence, [China] will stop them,” but noted that, “I’m decidedly more hawkish” now than before the trip. Cooper also warned of the significant Chinese arms purchases: “They are busy buying and building the best weapons they can. Money seems to be no object.” Forbes is also quoted by Defense News as adding that China is rapidly building up their navy: “There’s no question our Navy is the best in the world…At some point, sheer numbers start to matter.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
U.S. Sanctions Major Chinese Firms for Proliferation to Iran
January 18, 2005 :: New York Times :: News
Earlier this month, the State Department yet again sanctioned seven Chinese companies for their illicit proliferation of ballistic missile aid to Iran, a state sponsor of terrorism. Sanctions were also applied against one firm based in Taiwan and one in North Korea. The notice in the Federal Register said that the nine were being penalized for transferring to Iran “equipment and technology controlled under multilateral export control lists.”
As President Bush observed a number of years ago, China is a “strategic competitor” of the United States. It would be well to remember this as we formulate a more aggressive anti-proliferation policies. The real sources of proliferation are Russia and China. It is from these countries that Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea received the vast amount of missile technology and equipment. As the New York Times notes, the most recent round of sanctions will probably have little effect on any of these companies’ financial well being. And the companies’ ties to the Chinese government and military make such financial sanctions even less dubious of success. At some level, a policy decision to proliferate such technologies to these regimes has been made. Unless the Chinese government changes that policy, or unless we are willing to boldly identify it and employ more serious sanctions, we must resign ourselves to the inevitability of such proliferation. (Link)
» August 30, 2004: Photographs suggest changes to Shahab reentry device
» January 18, 2005: China says sanctions “not wise”
» September 27, 2004: Seven Chinese companies sanctioned
» November 18, 2004: Powell claims Iran modifying Shahabs to carry nuclear warhead
» More stories on: China, Iran, North Korea, Proliferation
Chinese Nuclear Weapon Plans in Libya Investigated
January 7, 2005 :: News
U.S. Intelligence is asking Pakistan to kindly convey written questions to the now infamous proliferator A. Q. Khan about how Libya managed to acquire a surprising level of nuclear and other missile capability, reports Geostrategy-Direct. The existence of such plans was previously reported in July of 2004. Of particular concern are how Chinese-language documents for the design for a nuclear warhead to be fitted on a missile, came to be found in Libya. Pakistan which has pardoned Khan, will also not permit U.S. officials to question him directly. Pakistan is said to be a friend of the United States in the war on terror and anti-proliferation efforts.
This latest incident only confirms that Pakistan is but an intermediary for the larger proliferation by China and Russia. It is no secret, after all, that Pakistan’s missile and nuclear programs were both heavily aided by China. U.S. Intelligence should probably not expect Pakistan to be too forthcoming with incriminating evidence. Perhaps the United States should rather ask China. (Article, Link)
» July 22, 2004: Libya had Chinese nuclear weapon blueprints, materials to build
» More stories on: China, Libya, Pakistan, Proliferation
Taiwan: Chinese Military Budget is Three Times Stated Size
December 28, 2004 :: News
Taiwanese defense official Wang Shih-chien commented upon reports of a new Chinese defense white paper which targets Taiwan, reports the Taiwanese Central News Agency.
Wang noted that Communist China’s national defense budget expenditures have increased every year at a double-digit rate, and added that the current report is incomplete in China’s true military spending. Wang asserted that the actual figure for China’s defense budgets should be three or four times that of the amount published.
Wang also continued to urge support for Taiwan’s request to purchase from the United States eight diesel-electric submarines, a squadron of 12 P-3C anti-submarine aircraft and six Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile batteries. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
China: We Will Crush Any Taiwan Independence Attempt
December 27, 2004 :: ABC News :: News
A recent Chinese defense policy paper articulates and affirms the policy that Beijing will crush the small nation of Taiwan if the island publicly declares independence from the Communist mainland. The defense white paper described relations between the two countries as “grim,” and promised that “Should the Taiwan authorities go so far as to make a reckless attempt that constitutes a major incident of ‘Taiwan independence’, the Chinese people and armed forces will resolutely and thoroughly crush it at any cost.” The armed forces have a “sacred responsibility” to do so, it added. The paper comes in the midst of deliberations about an “anti-secession” law which would legally obligate military action in the case of publicly declared independence. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
Jane’s: China Developing Two Versions of FT-2000 Missile Defense System
December 10, 2004 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
The December issue of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets notes that China is developing two versions of the FT-2000 air and missile defense system, namely the FT-2000A and FT-2000B. The report of the two versions is not by itself new. The article rather seems to have been prompted by a leaflet distributed at the recent Zhuhai air show. New information added by the leaflet also includes that the full system, which China reportedly hopes to market around the world, would include a “passive radar,” 12 launchers with one missile each, a single support station, and three slave or relay stations.
The -A and -B versions vary in range and capability, and are based on the Chinese HQ-2 and Chinese HQ-9 respectively. (Link)
» More stories on: China
» Missile system details for: FT-2000, Hongqi-2 (HQ-2), Hongqi-9 (HQ-9)
Japan Names China as Threat
December 10, 2004 :: Kyodo :: News
Japan recently released its new defense policy outline, which for the first time names Communist China as a concern and possible threat. North Korea is also so named, but China has reacted violently to their being included—a reaction which, in combination with the facts of China’s ambitious military buildup, confirms the validity of Japan’s defense articulation. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue expressed China’s “strong dissatisfaction” that Japan had officially spoken of the China threat in an official document, and called the accusation “baseless and irresponsible.”
Last month, a Chinese submarine penetrated Japanese waters. (More »»»)
» China reacts to Japanese defense document
» More stories on: Allies, China, Japan
