Dinerman on U.S.-Japan Defense Alliance and the Shifting Asian Balance of Power
April 11, 2006 :: The Space Review :: Analysis
Taylor Dinerman argues in TheSpaceReview.com that the U.S.-Japanese missile defense alliance is changing the balance of power against North Korea and to a lesser extent against China. Today, were the U.S. were to deploy a substantial number of Patriot-Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptors along with several Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors, they would be able to shoot down half of North Korea’s 100 or so Nodong-1 and 2 missiles. A few years from now, when Japan deploys its PAC-3s and SM-3s, the missile threat from Pyongyang “will be reduced to insignificance.” Similarly, China’s ability to strike the U.S. homeland is diminishing as the U.S. continues to deploy its missile defenses. As the effectiveness of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System (GMD) and the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) increases, the cost to China of maintaining its capability will increase as well. Dinerman adds that if the U.S. were to develop and deploy a space-based system similar to Brilliant Pebbles, China would lose “most of its nuclear options against the U.S. homeland and perhaps against Japan as well.” (Article, Link)
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Taiwan Official: 820 Chinese Missiles, 20,000 Troops Killed
March 29, 2006 :: BBC Worldwide Monitoring :: News
A Chinese ballistic missile attack could kill some 20,000 Taiwanese troops, according to Taiwan’s Vice Defense Minister Chu Kai-sheng. Speaking at a session of the Legislative Yuan on Wednesday, Chu quoted an estimate made in a Hankuang drill that if the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fired ballistic missiles at Taiwan in five consecutive ways, which would take about half a day, between 20,000 and 30,000 Taiwanese armed forces personnel would be killed or wounded. At present, China is said to have some 820 ballistic missiles (excluding cruise missiles) aimed at Taiwan. (Article, Link)
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Chinese Version of Patriot Interceptor Said Undergoing Tests
March 29, 2006 :: News
China recently tested a new surface-to-air missile in northwest China, which is said to be similar in capacity to the American Patriot interceptor. South Korea’s Dong-A Ilbo cites a recent bulletin from the People’s Liberation Army stating that the test involved the detection and downing of both a reconnaissance drone and an incoming ballistic missile by an interceptor “similar to the U.S. Patriot missile.” According to the Chinese launch commander, “This marks the official launch of the interceptor missile unit. We can intercept not only high-flying reconnaissance planes or missiles but also low-flying targets. Our accuracy is significantly high as well.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Chinese Missile Defenses
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2), Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
Andrew on Chinese Missile and Defensive Buildup
March 15, 2006 :: Analysis
Martin Andrew of the Jamestown Foundation argues that ballistic missile defense in Asia is reducing China’s strategic deterrence. As China deploys its theater-range missiles, other military powers in the region are investing in BMD systems, such as sea-based Aegis systems and ground-based THAAD systems. These new systems will be able to intercept Chinese missiles over Chinese airspace, thus putting China in what Andrew terms a “strategic quandary.” An excerpt:
BMD systems are being deployed in Northeast Asia because of the build-up in Chinese and North Korean ballistic missiles. Yet if it were to negotiate the removal of its ballistic missiles facing Taiwan it loses its key leverage over Taiwan—with Japan and South Korea still keeping their BMD systems in the face of North Korea’s arsenal. Yet by sustaining—and adding to—missile forces in Fujian, Beijing runs the risk of negating its strategic deterrence. If the Chinese leadership follows its doctrine of active defense and believed its nuclear deterrence was becoming neutralized or under threat, it could conceivably launch strikes against Taiwan and Japanese and U.S. ballistic defense missile forces, certainly leading to retaliatory economic and military action. With the acceleration of Chinese ballistic missile forces opposite Taiwan, this is becoming a matter of concern on both sides of the Asia-Pacific.
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan
» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
Taiwan Says Facing 784 Chinese Missiles
March 7, 2006 :: News
China posseses 784 missiles that could paralyze Taiwan’s communications, transportation, and command centers in a 10-hour bombardment, according to the Taiwanese Defense Ministry. AFX Asia quotes Lieutenant Colonel Chen Chang-hua who stated that China has “deployed 784 ballistic missiles with the entire island coming within their range, with the precision margin narrowing from 600 meters to 50 meters. Armed with the missiles, they can launch five waves of intensive bombings for 10 hours.” Chen’s statements come at a time of escalating tensions after Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian scrapped an advisory council on unification with the Chinese mainland, provoking fury in Beijing. (Article, Link)
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Report: Chinese Base at Antarctica Can Disable U.S. Satellites
February 2, 2006 :: East Asia Intel :: News
China last week announced its intention to build a high-frequency radar on the South Pole, reports East-Asia-Intel. The radar will be built at China’s Zhongshan Station, where Beijing has set up of a space environment lab. The high-frequency radar, which will consist of 20 antenna units, will have a range of approximately 3,000 km. Chinese officials told the news agency Xinhua that the station will be used to measure the polar space environment. However, U.S. defense analysts believe that the site could be used to disable U.S. satellites which pass over the South Pole.
The 2005 Pentagon (annual) report on the military capabilities of China had noted that the country is “conducting research to develop ground-based laser ASAT [anti-satellite] weapons,” and that “Beijing has and will continue to enhance its satellite tracking and identification network—the first step in establishing a credible ASAT capability.” In coming years, it is possible that China could deploy ASAT weapons in Antarctica capable of blinding or disrupting U.S. satellites. (Article, Link)
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Six Chinese Companies Sanctioned for Proliferation
January 1, 2006 :: Interfax :: News
The U.S. has placed six Chinese state-owned companies under sanctions for selling WMD materials to Iran. According to Interfax, the materials included cruise and ballistic missile systems. Under the terms of the Iran Nonproliferation Act, the six companies will be prohibited from doing business with the U.S. government, and U.S. firms will not be allowed to sell “sensitive products,” meaning equipment that can be converted into WMD or delivery systems, to these companies. The Iran Nonproliferation Act was set up to deter international support for Iran’s nuclear, chemical, biological and missile programs.
The six companies are China National Aerotechnology Import Export Corp (CATIC), China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO), Zibo Chemet Equipment Co, Hongdu Aviation Industry Group (HAIG), Ounion International Economic and Technical Cooperation Ltd, and Limmt Metallurgy and Minerals Company Ltd. CATIC, NORINCO and Zibo have been sanctioned in the past. This is the fifth time Zibo and Norinco have been sanctioned, since May 2002 and June 2003 respectively. CATIC was previously sanctioned in December 2004. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Proliferation
First Galileo Satellite Launched
December 30, 2005 :: MSNBC :: News
On Wednesday, December 28, the first satellite in the multinational Galileo navigation program was launched into space. The satellite, named “Giove A,” took off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan aboard a Soyuz rocket. Scientists plan to test its atomic clocks and navigation signals, secure its frequencies in space, and monitor how radiation affects the craft. A second Galileo satellite, “Giove B,” is scheduled for launch this spring. Two additional satellites will then be launched in 2008 to complete the testing phase, which requires at least four satellites in orbit to guarantee an exact position and time anywhere on earth.
Europeans hope that Galileo will end their reliance on the U.S. Global Positioning System. The $4 billion project will eventually use about 30 satellites and is expected to more than double the coverage currently provided by GPS. According to an ESA spokesman, Galileo will also be more exact than GPS, Galileo will also be more exact than GPS, with precision of about 1 meter, compared to about 5 meters with GPS technology. The Pentagon, however, has criticized Galileo as a potential security threat during wartime, saying its signals could interfere with the next-generation GPS signals intended for use by the U.S. military.
China’s participation in the program has raised further concern. The potential for countries’ using space-based assets as strategic instruments which could be used against the United States in the case of a conflict suggests the importance that America be conscious of the coming competition in space and that America be willing to compete. (Article, Link)
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Taiwan Legislature Committee Votes Down Patriot Purchases
November 10, 2005 :: Taiwan Headlines :: News
The Taiwanese legislative defense committee voted to cancel the NT$10.9 billion budget which had been set aside for the purchase of three PAC-3 Patriot missile interceptors, and another NT$40 million for the purchase of 12 P-3C anti-submarine aircraft.
Taiwan Headlines notes:
In support of their decision to cancel the funding, opposition party lawmakers cited the results of the referendum held in tandem with the 2004 presidential elections that failed to garner the necessary majority required to validate the proposal. They went on to say that the government should respect the people’s choice as Taiwanese citizens to “veto the purchase of anti-missile weapons systems from the United States.” When approached to comment on the subject, Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Lee Wen-chung said that the upcoming joint committee meeting could still reverse the verdict… “[The lawmakers are] simply barbaric,” said Huang Shih-cho of the Taiwan Solidarity Union. His words were mirrored by Chet Yang, secretary of Taiwan North Society who said, “(The Taiwanese) cannot continue to live at the mercy of these so-called legislators.” Yang said that Beijing is constantly strengthening its military and estimated that, by year’s end, there may be one thousand missiles pointed toward Taiwan. He urged the public to support the purchase so Taiwan could protect itself…
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
Tokyo Governor: U.S. Cannot Win War Against China Because PRC Does Not Value Human Life
November 5, 2005 :: Asahi Shimbun :: News
On November 4 the Asahbi Shimbun newspaper quotes Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara as saying that the United States could not possibly win a war against China because Beijing “holds no value at all for human life.”
Ishihara, no stranger to hawkish and controversial remarks, said the means of countering the threat from China would be through economic containment by strengthening ties with India and Russia… “Wars are a war of attrition of lives. China holds no value at all for human life and can start a war without any concerns,” he said. “We are now in a state of tension far more dangerous than during the Cold War period when the United States and the former Soviet Union were at odds.” The Tokyo governor warned: “If tensions mount between the United States and China, the two sides could pull the trigger on each other. Then, the more the fire expands, the United States, which has a civil society that highly values human life, would not be able to win… We believe Japan is being protected under the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, but it is a very unreliable treaty,” he said. “If China were to fire a nuclear weapon with the aim of blasting the Japan-U.S. security program, the target will likely be either Tokyo or Okinawa. I want my friends in the United States to know that such a circumstance is becoming real.” Touching on China’s successful experiment in June in launching a ballistic missile from its new submarine, Ishihara said, “It is an extremely grave historical fact that China owns nuclear arms and has succeeded in the experiment with a high degree of precision.”
(Link)
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