Hong Kong Op-Ed: China Will Not Help Disarm North Korea
August 2, 2006 :: The Standard (Hong Kong) :: Analysis
China will not prove helpful in disarming North Korea, writes Liu Kin-ming in Hong Kong’s The Standard. Liu analyzes a recent statement by General Guo Boxiong, vice-chairman of China’s powerful Central Military Commission, following North Korea’s July 5 test launch of seven ballistic missiles. Speaking at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., on July 19, Guo told the audience: “We only learned of North Korea’s missile tests on July 5 through U.S. intelligence broadcast by the media. At that time, I myself and the relevant people in our government were all very surprised. North Korea is a sovereign state. We can’t force it to do or not to do things.” He continued: “Let me be honest with you. What will North Korea do next? China doesn’t know. I also don’t know.” Liu notes that China’s influence over its neighbor could be limited, as evidenced by Pyongyang’s improper treatment of a top-level Chinese delegation just before its July 5 test launch. Liu emphasizes, however, that regardless of whether or not Guo’s statement about relying upon U.S. intelligence and monitoring is true, it shows that China does not plan to be of any help in disarming Pyongyang. “If Guo’s statement is true, Beijing has no influence over Pyongyang,” he writes. “If the statement isn’t true, Beijing thinks the Americans are the worst suckers on earth.” (Article, Link)
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China Built Underground Bunker for 200,000 People
August 2, 2006 :: AP :: News
China has built a million-square foot underground bunker complex in Shanghai capable of sheltering 200,000 people from a nuclear attack, reports the AP. The article quotes The Shanghai Morning Post, which describes the bunker as connecting to office and apartment buildings, shopping centers, and the subway through an extensive tunnel system. The bunker reportedly has water, electricity, ventilation, and protective doors, and can support its occupants for up to two weeks. The article did not say when the bunker was completed, or whether it was built with a specific threat in mind. (Article, Link)
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Chen: China Has 820 Missiles Aimed at Taiwan
July 17, 2006 :: AFP :: News
China has 820 ballistic and cruise missiles currently aimed at Taiwan, according to Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian. Speaking today at a forum of Japanese scholars in Taipai, Chen stated that the People’s Liberation Army had deployed 784 ballistic and 36 cruise missiles, adding that the number of missiles is rising at a rate of 120 per year.
Chen’s figures are in line with those of the Pentagon’s 2006 Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, released in May 2006, which estimated the number of Chinese CSS-6 and CSS-7 short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan as numbering 710-790, an increase over the previous year’s 650-730 missiles. In his statement, President Chen noted that a ten-hour Chinese bombardment could paralyze Taiwan’s communications, transportation, and command centers. He added that China has repeatedly threatened to invade Taiwan should it declare formal independence. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
» Missile details: CSS-6 (DF-15/M-9), CSS-7 (DF-11)
Commerce: U.S. High-Tech Exports Cannot Aid Chinese Military
July 11, 2006 :: News
U.S. companies that export high-tech goods to China may soon have to verify that their products will not aid China’s military modernization. On July 6, the U.S. Commerce Department proposed restrictions on a list of 47 product classifications developed in conjunction with the Defense and State Departments. The classifications include aircraft, computers, certain software, machine tools, hydraulic fluids, and more. Exporters of such items would be responsible for verifying that China does not use its products for military purposes. The proposal promises a government-approved list of “validated end users,” those Chinese companies that have the confidence of the U.S. government. Any U.S. exporter selling goods to a company from that group would not require a license. The Commerce Department will issue its final ruling on November 3. (Article, Link)
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Taiwan to Test Launch Missile Capable of Hitting China
July 6, 2006 :: Reuters :: News
Taiwan plans to test launch a Hsiung Feng-3 short-range ballistic missile capable of hitting China, reports Reuters. According to an online report by the Taiwanese cable news network ETTV, the missile was developed by Taiwan’s Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology and has a range of 600 km (360 miles). If accurate, the range would put Chinese coastal areas from Fuzhou in Fujian Province to Nan’ao in Guangdong within striking distance of the missile. China has already deployed nearly 800 short-range missiles aimed at Taiwan. The ETTV report speculated that the Hsiung Feng-4 test launch might take place in September. (Article, Link)
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McCain on North Korea, Suggests Role for China
June 20, 2006 :: Financial Times :: News
Senator John McCain (R-AZ), Ranking Member of the Armed Services Committee, recently discussed the threat from North Korea in an interview with the Financial Times. In particular, McCain warned of possible regional destabilization between Japan and China if North Korea goes ahead with its test launch of its Taep’o-dong 2 long-range ballistic missile.
We all know what happens if they [North Korea] continue to make this kind of progress and that is the Japanese will acquire missile defence systems and eventually will have to acquire offensive weapons which we know they could readily do given the technology capability they have. The key to all this as we all know is China. It seems to me it is not in China’s interest to see this kind of destabilisation. They’re doing very well and exacerbation of tensions in the region cannot be in their interest. So why they don’t put more pressure on the dear leader is something I simply do not understand. … Depending on what we find out about what North Korea is doing and what its intentions are, we have to ratchet up the importance of the issue in our relationship [with China].
McCain also reiterated his previous opposition to the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework, in which North Korea was provided with 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil annually, at no cost, in exchange for suspending its nuclear program. The Framework, supported by the Clinton administration, was and still is viewed by many as blackmail on the part of North Korea, and appeasement on the part of the U.S. According to McCain, the program was “neither verifiable nor enforceable,” and did not do much except “maybe put a billion dollars into the Korean coffers.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Japan, North Korea
» Missile details: Tien Ma 1
Pentagon Releases 2006 Report on Military Power of China
May 25, 2006 :: News
On May 23, the Pentagon released its annual report to Congress on the military power of the People’s Republic of China. The report states that China is “pursuing strategic forces modernization to provide a credible, survivable nuclear deterrent and counterstrike capability in response to its perception of an increasingly complex nuclear security environment.” In particular, China is developing forces and concepts focused on denying adversaries the ability to deploy near its borders. The most glaring example is the fact that China is “qualitatively and quantitatively improving its long-range nuclear missile force.” The report adds that China might be revising its policy of “no first use,” meaning that it is considering the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapons-free zones.
The report also notes that Chinese ballistic missile testing increased in 2005, and states that such an increase “indicat[es] the priority China places on strengthening this force.” It notes that “China’s expansion of missile and other military forces opposite Taiwan has continued unabated.” By the end of 2004, China had deployed 650-730 mobile CSS-6 and CSS-7 short-range ballistic missiles; by the end of 2005, this number had increased to 710-790. The new SRBMs are believed to feature increased range and accuracy. China is also modernizing its longer-range ballistic missile force “by qualitatively upgrading and/or replacing older systems with newer, more survivable ones,” including the DF-31, a new road-mobile, solid-propellant ICBM. The report notes that an extended-range DF-31A “can target most of the world, including the continental United States.” China is also deploying the JL-2 SLBM on its Jin-class (Type 094) ballistic missile submarines, and developing new methods to counter ballistic missiles defenses.
The Pentagon adds that China has acquired new Russian-made S-300P (SA-10) and S-400 (SA-20) air/missile defense interceptors, and has deployed them along the Taiwan Strait. China is also expected to deploy an extended range S-300PMU2, which would allow the People’s Liberation Army to engage targets over Taiwanese airspace. At the same time, China is developing “new concept” high energy weapon systems such as radio frequency and laser-based systems that could be used against missiles, aircraft, and command and control units. Evidence also exists that Beijing continues to pursue a new offensive anti-satellite system, which would most likely include a ground-based laser designed to damage or blind imaging satellites. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
» Missile details: CSS-6 (DF-15/M-9), CSS-7 (DF-11)
Report: China Has 130 Nuclear Weapons
May 4, 2006 :: East Asia Intel :: News
A new report by the Natural Resources Defense Council estimates that China has 130 nuclear warheads, which could be delivered by land-based missiles, sea-based missiles, and bombers. It notes that “additional warheads are thought to be in storage for a total stockpile of approximately 200 warheads,” but acknowledges a large number of “unknowns” about China’s nuclear programs. The NRDC assessment cites the Pentagon’s latest annual report on China’s military power as well as a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement from 2004. (Article, Link)
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Henderson on Saudi-China-Pakistan Missile Ties
April 23, 2006 :: Analysis
Simon Henderson, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, recently commented on missile ties between Saudi Arabia, China, and Pakistan. The Saudis currently possess an arsenal of aging Chinese-designed CSS-2 missiles, purchased from China in the 1980s. Riyadh hopes to upgrade this arsenal with modern Chinese-designed missiles and perhaps nuclear warheads to create a deterrent against Iran. Henderson speculates that the Saudis will attempt to acquire from Pakistan both Chinese-designed missiles and dual-key Pakistani nuclear warheads. Under such a system, Saudi Arabia would have the key that controls the missiles, while Pakistan would have the key that controls the warheads. The result would technically not breach the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and perhaps evade Chinese international obligations against the transfer of ballistic missiles. However, a nuclear-armed Saudi Arabia would severely undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts to block Iran’s nuclear weapons program, and dramatically alter the regional balance of power.
Henderson notes that Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah visited Pakistan in February 2006, on his way back from China. In addition, Crown Prince Sultan, the Saudi defense minister, was in Pakistan in April. On Sultan’s previous trip to Pakistan in 1999, he toured Pakistan’s Kahuta uranium enrichment and missile production center, where he was escorted by the then director, the nuclear proliferator A.Q. Khan. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Pakistan, Proliferation
» Missile details: CSS-2 (DF-3, DF-3A)
CSIS Report on Taiwan’s Vulnerability to Chinese Missiles
April 17, 2006 :: UPI :: Analysis
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a prominent Washington think tank, recently published a report highlighting Taiwan’s anti-ballistic missile vulnerabilities. The report, entitled “The Paths Ahead: Missile Defense in Asia,” was prepared by Kurt Campbell, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Clinton, and CSIS senior fellow Jeremiah Gertler. It argues that the cost of deploying missile defenses far exceeds China’s cost of producing large numbers of old-fashioned, lower-tech missiles which could swamp Taiwan’s defenses.
Campbell and Gertler predict that in the event of a Chinese attack, Taiwan’s interceptors would be outnumbered six or seven to one. In addition, new Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, submarines, and fast-attack boats are creating the capability to push U.S. Aegis-equipped warships out of missile defense range, leaving Taiwan entirely dependent on its ground based Patriot systems.
The report also paints a grim picture of a Taiwanese public, political elite, and military deeply divided over the subject of missile defense. It describes the issue as “unusually polarizing” within the public, adding that opposition political parties view missile defense as “a provocation to China” and an “obstacle to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” In addition, the report points out major divisions within the Taiwanese armed forces, with the Army opposed to missile defense, the Navy in favor, and the Air Force still divided. (Article, Link)
» CSIS Report: “The Paths Ahead: Missile Defense in Asia”
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