Report: China Has 130 Nuclear Weapons
May 4, 2006 :: East Asia Intel :: News
A new report by the Natural Resources Defense Council estimates that China has 130 nuclear warheads, which could be delivered by land-based missiles, sea-based missiles, and bombers. It notes that “additional warheads are thought to be in storage for a total stockpile of approximately 200 warheads,” but acknowledges a large number of “unknowns” about China’s nuclear programs. The NRDC assessment cites the Pentagon’s latest annual report on China’s military power as well as a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement from 2004. (Article, Link)
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Henderson on Saudi-China-Pakistan Missile Ties
April 23, 2006 :: Analysis
Simon Henderson, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, recently commented on missile ties between Saudi Arabia, China, and Pakistan. The Saudis currently possess an arsenal of aging Chinese-designed CSS-2 missiles, purchased from China in the 1980s. Riyadh hopes to upgrade this arsenal with modern Chinese-designed missiles and perhaps nuclear warheads to create a deterrent against Iran. Henderson speculates that the Saudis will attempt to acquire from Pakistan both Chinese-designed missiles and dual-key Pakistani nuclear warheads. Under such a system, Saudi Arabia would have the key that controls the missiles, while Pakistan would have the key that controls the warheads. The result would technically not breach the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and perhaps evade Chinese international obligations against the transfer of ballistic missiles. However, a nuclear-armed Saudi Arabia would severely undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts to block Iran’s nuclear weapons program, and dramatically alter the regional balance of power.
Henderson notes that Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah visited Pakistan in February 2006, on his way back from China. In addition, Crown Prince Sultan, the Saudi defense minister, was in Pakistan in April. On Sultan’s previous trip to Pakistan in 1999, he toured Pakistan’s Kahuta uranium enrichment and missile production center, where he was escorted by the then director, the nuclear proliferator A.Q. Khan. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Pakistan, Proliferation
» Missile details: CSS-2
CSIS Report on Taiwan’s Vulnerability to Chinese Missiles
April 17, 2006 :: UPI :: Analysis
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a prominent Washington think tank, recently published a report highlighting Taiwan’s anti-ballistic missile vulnerabilities. The report, entitled “The Paths Ahead: Missile Defense in Asia,” was prepared by Kurt Campbell, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Clinton, and CSIS senior fellow Jeremiah Gertler. It argues that the cost of deploying missile defenses far exceeds China’s cost of producing large numbers of old-fashioned, lower-tech missiles which could swamp Taiwan’s defenses.
Campbell and Gertler predict that in the event of a Chinese attack, Taiwan’s interceptors would be outnumbered six or seven to one. In addition, new Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, submarines, and fast-attack boats are creating the capability to push U.S. Aegis-equipped warships out of missile defense range, leaving Taiwan entirely dependent on its ground based Patriot systems.
The report also paints a grim picture of a Taiwanese public, political elite, and military deeply divided over the subject of missile defense. It describes the issue as “unusually polarizing” within the public, adding that opposition political parties view missile defense as “a provocation to China” and an “obstacle to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” In addition, the report points out major divisions within the Taiwanese armed forces, with the Army opposed to missile defense, the Navy in favor, and the Air Force still divided. (Article, Link)
» CSIS Report: “The Paths Ahead: Missile Defense in Asia”
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Taiwan
Dinerman on U.S.-Japan Defense Alliance and the Shifting Asian Balance of Power
April 11, 2006 :: The Space Review :: Analysis
Taylor Dinerman argues in TheSpaceReview.com that the U.S.-Japanese missile defense alliance is changing the balance of power against North Korea and to a lesser extent against China. Today, were the U.S. were to deploy a substantial number of Patriot-Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptors along with several Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors, they would be able to shoot down half of North Korea’s 100 or so Nodong-1 and 2 missiles. A few years from now, when Japan deploys its PAC-3s and SM-3s, the missile threat from Pyongyang “will be reduced to insignificance.” Similarly, China’s ability to strike the U.S. homeland is diminishing as the U.S. continues to deploy its missile defenses. As the effectiveness of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System (GMD) and the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) increases, the cost to China of maintaining its capability will increase as well. Dinerman adds that if the U.S. were to develop and deploy a space-based system similar to Brilliant Pebbles, China would lose “most of its nuclear options against the U.S. homeland and perhaps against Japan as well.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Japan, North Korea
Taiwan Official: 820 Chinese Missiles, 20,000 Troops Killed
March 29, 2006 :: BBC Worldwide Monitoring :: News
A Chinese ballistic missile attack could kill some 20,000 Taiwanese troops, according to Taiwan’s Vice Defense Minister Chu Kai-sheng. Speaking at a session of the Legislative Yuan on Wednesday, Chu quoted an estimate made in a Hankuang drill that if the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fired ballistic missiles at Taiwan in five consecutive ways, which would take about half a day, between 20,000 and 30,000 Taiwanese armed forces personnel would be killed or wounded. At present, China is said to have some 820 ballistic missiles (excluding cruise missiles) aimed at Taiwan. (Article, Link)
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Chinese Version of Patriot Interceptor Said Undergoing Tests
March 29, 2006 :: News
China recently tested a new surface-to-air missile in northwest China, which is said to be similar in capacity to the American Patriot interceptor. South Korea’s Dong-A Ilbo cites a recent bulletin from the People’s Liberation Army stating that the test involved the detection and downing of both a reconnaissance drone and an incoming ballistic missile by an interceptor “similar to the U.S. Patriot missile.” According to the Chinese launch commander, “This marks the official launch of the interceptor missile unit. We can intercept not only high-flying reconnaissance planes or missiles but also low-flying targets. Our accuracy is significantly high as well.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Chinese Missile Defenses
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2), Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
Andrew on Chinese Missile and Defensive Buildup
March 15, 2006 :: Analysis
Martin Andrew of the Jamestown Foundation argues that ballistic missile defense in Asia is reducing China’s strategic deterrence. As China deploys its theater-range missiles, other military powers in the region are investing in BMD systems, such as sea-based Aegis systems and ground-based THAAD systems. These new systems will be able to intercept Chinese missiles over Chinese airspace, thus putting China in what Andrew terms a “strategic quandary.” An excerpt:
BMD systems are being deployed in Northeast Asia because of the build-up in Chinese and North Korean ballistic missiles. Yet if it were to negotiate the removal of its ballistic missiles facing Taiwan it loses its key leverage over Taiwan—with Japan and South Korea still keeping their BMD systems in the face of North Korea’s arsenal. Yet by sustaining—and adding to—missile forces in Fujian, Beijing runs the risk of negating its strategic deterrence. If the Chinese leadership follows its doctrine of active defense and believed its nuclear deterrence was becoming neutralized or under threat, it could conceivably launch strikes against Taiwan and Japanese and U.S. ballistic defense missile forces, certainly leading to retaliatory economic and military action. With the acceleration of Chinese ballistic missile forces opposite Taiwan, this is becoming a matter of concern on both sides of the Asia-Pacific.
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan
» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
Taiwan Says Facing 784 Chinese Missiles
March 7, 2006 :: News
China posseses 784 missiles that could paralyze Taiwan’s communications, transportation, and command centers in a 10-hour bombardment, according to the Taiwanese Defense Ministry. AFX Asia quotes Lieutenant Colonel Chen Chang-hua who stated that China has “deployed 784 ballistic missiles with the entire island coming within their range, with the precision margin narrowing from 600 meters to 50 meters. Armed with the missiles, they can launch five waves of intensive bombings for 10 hours.” Chen’s statements come at a time of escalating tensions after Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian scrapped an advisory council on unification with the Chinese mainland, provoking fury in Beijing. (Article, Link)
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Report: Chinese Base at Antarctica Can Disable U.S. Satellites
February 2, 2006 :: East Asia Intel :: News
China last week announced its intention to build a high-frequency radar on the South Pole, reports East-Asia-Intel. The radar will be built at China’s Zhongshan Station, where Beijing has set up of a space environment lab. The high-frequency radar, which will consist of 20 antenna units, will have a range of approximately 3,000 km. Chinese officials told the news agency Xinhua that the station will be used to measure the polar space environment. However, U.S. defense analysts believe that the site could be used to disable U.S. satellites which pass over the South Pole.
The 2005 Pentagon (annual) report on the military capabilities of China had noted that the country is “conducting research to develop ground-based laser ASAT [anti-satellite] weapons,” and that “Beijing has and will continue to enhance its satellite tracking and identification network—the first step in establishing a credible ASAT capability.” In coming years, it is possible that China could deploy ASAT weapons in Antarctica capable of blinding or disrupting U.S. satellites. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Space-Based Systems
Six Chinese Companies Sanctioned for Proliferation
January 1, 2006 :: Interfax :: News
The U.S. has placed six Chinese state-owned companies under sanctions for selling WMD materials to Iran. According to Interfax, the materials included cruise and ballistic missile systems. Under the terms of the Iran Nonproliferation Act, the six companies will be prohibited from doing business with the U.S. government, and U.S. firms will not be allowed to sell “sensitive products,” meaning equipment that can be converted into WMD or delivery systems, to these companies. The Iran Nonproliferation Act was set up to deter international support for Iran’s nuclear, chemical, biological and missile programs.
The six companies are China National Aerotechnology Import Export Corp (CATIC), China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO), Zibo Chemet Equipment Co, Hongdu Aviation Industry Group (HAIG), Ounion International Economic and Technical Cooperation Ltd, and Limmt Metallurgy and Minerals Company Ltd. CATIC, NORINCO and Zibo have been sanctioned in the past. This is the fifth time Zibo and Norinco have been sanctioned, since May 2002 and June 2003 respectively. CATIC was previously sanctioned in December 2004. (Article, Link)
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